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  • #3,441
  • Edited 10:36am Nov 4, 2010 10:22am | Edited 10:36am
Seems a great part of what I wrote today at work got lost. ;/

Well yes I do keep my SL:s tight. I try to Use the current market situation to gauge how much i will allow it to flow against me.
I started with kinda 20+ as a move to BE but if it's really slow and i takes forever i will move to BE much sooner and just ignore the trade and most of the times they get stopped out but i rather BE when im unsure than take a loss.
Talking about min max and average pips gained before they comming back and hitting BE i dont have that kind of data. So not sure I understood your question properly

I got some examples from the recent try @ ej today:

First addition
http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/91/ejadd1.jpg

2nd add
http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/7282/51283950.png

Was really slow going the last bit so after this i moved to BE even if it hadnt gone up much. Both got stopped out just a few bars later. So only initial entry still going!
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent.
  • #3,442
  • Nov 4, 2010 11:15am Nov 4, 2010 11:15am
Quoting pipEASY
Roadrunner - Good trading plan. There is one catch to stacking positions on small timeframes. You need to know when to trade and above all control your risk. Never try too much in one sitting or one 4hr candle.
Great advice, thank you.

After much frustration at the beginning of the week and yesterday at all the minor losses and break evens, I finally woke up this morning to a buy position that stuck for 200+ pips on EU. I still have it and took a counter sell trade on PA that is current acting as "insurance" which is still open at a gain of 40+ for now. I took around 50 pips or so in losses this week so far, but this one position has been well worth it. This is a definite confidence builder. Thanks again!
  • #3,443
  • Nov 4, 2010 12:42pm Nov 4, 2010 12:42pm
Good morning, all

Very good questions and thoughts.

Im glad to hear some of the questions that are asked.

I have read all the posts and perhaps this post aimed at everyone will further clarify.

First, lets talk about personal threshold as questioned by VEEFX.

Although it sounds like a good logic to say,

'Ok. I know from my previous experience I have the confidence to aim for 1500 pips but I cant see myself getting a 800 pip realized loss to get there. So, when I reach -800 pips I will stop."

Nice goal of 1500 but there are ways to know that it will not work out before losing 800 pips.

You must consult with the price action of higher timeframes all the time whether your goal of 1500 is still achievable.

This week I have been looking for 100 pip swings on intraweek of eur/usd.

http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/4042/aa1l.jpg

Lets just double check of weekly chart agrees,

http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/1538/aa1pg.jpg

So, your price interpretation this morning would be 'up.' Then execute that hindsight on the lower timeframe. Trading at the optimum time.

This is eur/usd 4hr

http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/9633/aa1a.jpg

However you still dont know if your plan will work as the first chart. But you have participated into the action as per your plan and you are now setting yourself with that -800 pip threshold.

Its not the other way around by planning a 1500 pip profit with 800 pip loss threshold without planning with daily/weekly chart beforehand.

To aim for 1500 pip profits you must choose the correct scale to play on. 1500 pip profit is achievable on weekly, monthly charts. Consult with them first and then you scale down to lower timeframe to start executing.

Knowing when to trade - You must consult with higher timeframe with your intentions

Executing your plan - You must take risks on the lower timeframe whilst aiming for your plan of the higher timeframe

The above will only work when you have upskilled your price interpretation and have few things that does work for you all the time.

Mine is:

1. Judging the movement of power from looking at the % of retrace. Less retrace before going towards the direction I want means more power

2. Price likes to double wick bounce, triple wick bounce, open price bounce, 50% fib bounce. One of them always always happens

3. Pin bar, engulf, flying buddhas

4. Volatile movements on 'good' ema crossovers

When I plan my goal on the higher timeframe and start executing. Sometimes it will work straight away and then start phasing out and not working. Then something has changed in the higher timeframe.
  • #3,444
  • Nov 4, 2010 1:51pm Nov 4, 2010 1:51pm
Sorry to be a bother again but can someone help me understand what Graeme is doing with stops on these recent trades? I have read the whole thread and those links don't help. He is swing trading now anyways which is different.

I think where I am getting confused is that his broker perhaps allows him to set close all position stops on each pair. My broker doesn't have that feature.
  • #3,445
  • Nov 4, 2010 1:58pm Nov 4, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting hubbahubba
Sorry to be a bother again but can someone help me understand what Graeme is doing with stops on these recent trades? I have read the whole thread and those links don't help. He is swing trading now anyways which is different.

I think where I am getting confused is that his broker perhaps allows him to set close all position stops on each pair. My broker doesn't have that feature.
Good question.

Im showing intraweek swing trading as there has been many requests for a trading approach on the lower timeframe.

I prefer not to swing trade however I can if I wanted to.

I can also swing trade and then leave at least 1 position on each swing without closing it.

This showing could start a new encouragement to traders to not close all their position but at least have 1 position left behind for free.

Like member aud mentioned, 'a stepping stone was needed.'

My main focus on current showings is the very important and much needed price interpretation which most traders can still upskill further.

Imagine everything I do now on intraweek exactly the same as higher timeframe of weekly/monthly. Whereas stop losses/losses on intraweek means small pips which most traders seem to stomach whileas stop losses/losses on higher timeframe is larger which most traders cannot comprehend.

However, once you find that you can trade profitably on smaller scale you will naturally evolve to trade on the larger scale as this means much bigger rewards but less number of wins than intraweek.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,446
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:02pm Nov 4, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good question.

Im showing intraweek swing trading as there has been many requests for a trading approach on the lower timeframe.

I prefer not to swing trade however I can if I wanted to.

I can also swing trade and then leave at least 1 position on each swing without closing it.

This showing could start a new encouragement to traders to not close all their position but at least have 1 position left behind for free.

Like member aud mentioned, 'a stepping stone was needed.'

[u]My main focus on current showings is the very important...
Thanks for the response Graeme. What I am asking is perhaps much simpler than that. I like everything you are doing and I am trying to accomplish the same thing in the same ways.

I am hung up on how you handle stop loss for some reason. On 5min what I normally do is open a position and when it moves several pips in my favor I will set SL to BE then start looking to open a second position. I recall you talking about doing the same thing. But on these trades it does not appear that you are doing that. If you are not using stops then how do you decide when to close positions manually. So for example say you have 4 positions stacked closely together and the price starts going against you. Will you close all 4, perhaps taking a small loss on the last couple and a small gain on the first couple? Or will you perhaps wait till price goes into the red on all 4 trades before closing them all for a small loss on all 4...progressively larger loss for each subsequent trade?

For some reason I have a mental block as to how you are accumulating your small losses. I understand everything else such as narrow entry on low time frame etc.
  • #3,447
  • Edited 3:46pm Nov 4, 2010 3:35pm | Edited 3:46pm
For some reason I have a mental block as to how you are accumulating your small losses. I understand everything else such as narrow entry on low time frame etc.


If you dont mind I will tell you how I reduce my draw downs and place my stops. But first, I remain thankful and humble in my endeavour.

I'm using pipeasy methology, so I will open 1 position in my hindsight with a fix stop loss, I like to start at the begin of the day or the start of or a 1H or 4Hr candle.

if it moves in my favor I will add more without stop loss. Remember enter when price NEEDS to breakout.

When I'm comfortably and PA lines up I will BE all positions.
I will cut loose if PA tells me price is heading in the opposite direction, like a close below previous established support.

My mind set is that I am prepared to take small losses once i'm in just to establish multiple positions. These will run and cover all the business expenses.( cost of doing business).

For me its: Anticipation and Discretion and tolerance.
I dont focus too much on the losses cause the reward is my healing.

Remember also Graeme said, he is interested in the start of 1, 4, daily ,weekly candles that reverses( confirm with hindsight)
usually you will find S/R below and above these candles so you can potentially place SL around these areas.
  • #3,448
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:44pm Nov 4, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting chips
For some reason I have a mental block as to how you are accumulating your small losses. I understand everything else such as narrow entry on low time frame etc.


If you dont mind I will tell you how I reduce my draw downs and place my stops. But first, I remain thankful and humble in my endeavour.

I'm using pipeasy methology, so I will open 1 position in my hindsight with a fix stop loss, I like to start at the begin of the day or the start of or a 1H or 4Hr candle.

if it moves in my favor I will add more without stop loss. Remember...
Thanks chips. That makes a lot of sense. I agree with and understand all the psychology and philosophy and technique and don't think I need any clarification there. I just need a little clarification on the simple math of when/how to close losing positions. Because stacked postions you are willing to take a small loss on can add up to a much larger loss quite quickly on 5min and it is exponential because we are talking multiple positions here. So there must be some number, percentage. Something in order to keep risk in check. The way I have been doing it is one position at a time and not adding another till price moves to a point where I can move or add SL at BE on EACH position. What Graeme is doing as of late appears to be different in that regard and I am curious what it is.

Sorry for cluttering up this thread....it's just bugging me that I don't see what is going on there.
  • #3,449
  • Edited 4:14pm Nov 4, 2010 4:03pm | Edited 4:14pm
Maybe this is what you are looking.
(Trader 1)
Account size = $10,000
Currency = EUR/USD
Stop (based on technicals) = 30 pips
Risk = 2% of your Account = $200
Lot size = Mini = 10,000
Pip value for a Mini lot on EUR/USD = $1
Stop of 30 pips * $1 per pip = $30
Position size = $200 / $30 = 6.67 mini lots.
Since you cannot trade fractional lots (forget Oanda) you must round the position size
DOWN to 6. Always round down to be more conservative.
True Leverage = Position Size / Account Size = 60,000 / 10,000 = 6:1
This level of leverage is too high if you lack experience. Better to reduce your percent
risk from 2% down to 1%. That will reduce the leverage to 3:1 in this case.
With this in mind( you can be comfortable opening up your positions as long as the techinicals say
enter with the pips required.
Remember you are looking for opportunities that you can risk 30pips or less preferrably, that will produce infinite returns.
  • #3,450
  • Nov 4, 2010 4:21pm Nov 4, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting chips
Maybe this is what you are looking.
(Trader 1)
Account size = $10,000
Currency = EUR/USD
Stop (based on technicals) = 30 pips
Risk = 2% of your Account = $200
Lot size = Mini = 10,000
Pip value for a Mini lot on EUR/USD = $1
Stop of 30 pips * $1 per pip = $30
Position size = $200 / $30 = 6.67 mini lots.
Since you cannot trade fractional lots (forget Oanda) you must round the position size
DOWN to 6. Always round down to be more conservative.
True Leverage = Position Size / Account Size = 60,000 / 10,000 = 6:1
This level of leverage is too high...
I understand the money management. I did not want to bring that up because Graeme does not apply traditional money management. He does not need to because his capital is far greater than the 0.5 to 2% risk per trade most of the rest of us need to be concerned with. Regardless of I how I handle my risk, whether it is stops on each stacked position or making sure average loss never goes beyond a certain number, I will always make sure I am within my limits there.
  • #3,451
  • Nov 4, 2010 4:41pm Nov 4, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting hubbahubba
Because stacked postions you are willing to take a small loss on can add up to a much larger loss quite quickly on 5min and it is exponential because we are talking multiple positions here. So there must be some number, percentage. Something in order to keep risk in check. The way I have been doing it is one position at a time and not adding another till price moves to a point where I can move or add SL at BE on EACH position. What Graeme is doing as of late appears to be different in that regard and I am curious what it is.
Hey Hubbahubba,

I hope you don't mind my humble opinion here, as we are all learning this together, and I myself am still figuring much of this out. I place my stops just beyond what ever price action or S/R point I am using to enter the trade. If it's a pinbar on the 5M, I place directly below that, then I wait for PA to appear on the larger TFs, if the position has survived I will move my stop to break even in conjunction with the PA on the larger TF.

Also, I was stacking way to many trades based on the 5M and other smaller TFs. This was making it very difficult for me to figure out where I should place my stops, and was making my trading way too stressful. Graeme mentioned that, "there is one catch to stacking positions on small time frames. You need to know when to trade and above all control your risk. Never try too much in one sitting or one 4hr candle." Since giving this a shot I have not been stacking trades more than once every 4H or so, and I have been limiting most of my re-attempts to the first quarter hour after a new 1H opens. Currently I have 3 positions open, two are set to breakeven, the third is a "stack" that I bought a few hours ago, and is still set to the original SL, because the larger TF hasn't shown enough strength yet, and it hasn't really cleared the traded area yet.

Again, this is just my opinion as I am still learning all of this too.

Best Regards
  • #3,452
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:15pm Nov 4, 2010 7:15pm
Hiya HubbaHubba,

Perhaps maybe you are asking for something mechanical in regards to stop losses and their management? If that is the case, you won't find that here as Graeme is using his experience to tell him what to do. Like all those with such experience, there is a lot more that goes into their decision making process than they think and it will involve some element of feel.

With kind regards,
MK
  • #3,453
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:24pm Nov 4, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting MidKnight
Hiya HubbaHubba,

Perhaps maybe you are asking for something mechanical in regards to stop losses and their management? If that is the case, you won't find that here as Graeme is using his experience to tell him what to do. Like all those with such experience, there is a lot more that goes into their decision making process than they think and it will involve some element of feel.

With kind regards,
MK
I am not asking for mechanical "if this then do that" type information either. All I am asking is, on the first few images Graeme posted in the last few days. How did he accumulate the small losses he mentioned. The whole process from getting in to getting out. Were stops involved or did he just stay glued to the screen? Most importantly, how was that all done with multiple stacked positions. Did he close them all at once after he was in the red on the last couple or did he have stops in place already and just let them get picked off one by one.

The reason I am asking is because the way I have been doing it I have been accumulating losses which are increasing. I think I know why and it's not because of my stops where they are or even knowing when to get in and when to not get in. But I do not want to leave any stones unturned so I am trying to understand exactly what Graeme is doing as of late.
  • #3,454
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:39pm Nov 4, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting hubbahubba
I am not asking for mechanical "if this then do that" type information either. All I am asking is, on the first few images Graeme posted in the last few days. How did he accumulate the small losses he mentioned. The whole process from getting in to getting out. Were stops involved or did he just stay glued to the screen? Most importantly, how was that all done with multiple stacked positions. Did he close them all at once after he was in the red on the last couple or did he have stops in place already and just let them get picked off one by one....
hi hubba,
On the first few screens of G's screen since returning G had a dormant 'close all' ea on the chart - I presume fof a quick exit he could activate the ea if his initial entries go against too quickly - this would only be necessary on the first few entries of any ccy pair - if you have one or more positions in both directions losses will be mitigated by opposing gains. G also stated that if a position goes against him he would be looking to exit at close of current candle
  • #3,455
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:53pm Nov 4, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting traderray
hi hubba,
On the first few screens of G's screen since returning G had a dormant 'close all' ea on the chart - I presume fof a quick exit he could activate the ea if his initial entries go against too quickly - this would only be necessary on the first few entries of any ccy pair - if you have one or more positions in both directions losses will be mitigated by opposing gains. G also stated that if a position goes against him he would be looking to exit at close of current candle
Thanks traderray, I think you may have found something I was missing (ignoring). Taking both sides of the pair means losses on one will be offset by gains on the other. That certainly changes the math. However, now it is even more complicated if you have more positions on one side and the market goes against that side.
  • #3,456
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:02pm Nov 4, 2010 8:02pm
Quoting hubbahubba
Thanks traderray, I think you may have found something I was missing (ignoring). Taking both sides of the pair means losses on one will be offset by gains on the other. That certainly changes the math. However, now it is even more complicated if you have more positions on one side and the market goes against that side.
Yes, I ideally you work yourself into a profitable position on both ends with some distance, allowing yourself to set SL to break even, and continuing to add on the stronger end. It gets a bit cumbersome to manage, which is why I am only trading EU.
  • #3,457
  • Edited 9:51pm Nov 4, 2010 9:40pm | Edited 9:51pm
Quoting hubbahubba
Thanks traderray, I think you may have found something I was missing (ignoring). Taking both sides of the pair means losses on one will be offset by gains on the other. That certainly changes the math. However, now it is even more complicated if you have more positions on one side and the market goes against that side.
NP - Also if you look back to some of the first charts of the current topic you will see stops are in place on many charts and show no more than 12 pips for the first 3 short trades and when positions are added the 3 original positions are at BE and the stop for the new positions is about 6 pips. If you open 3 trades with SL of say 20 pips and price goes in your favour when you consider adding, say 3 more, positions with the same SL - if you move original entries to BE then you have halved your average loss over 6 positions if price wipes all 6 out.
  • #3,458
  • Nov 5, 2010 5:14am Nov 5, 2010 5:14am
For those who use an MT4 platform for trading - you may be unaware that you can gather most of the info relating to stats that Graeme mentioned in an earlier post from the platform. For those unaware of the feature available:
Click on 'Account History' tab in terminal window
Click on 'Time' to sort into date time order
Right click on any order -> select 'Custom Period' to choose start and end dates.
Select 'Save as detailed report'

Then enter appropriate file name
A file will be created for posterity and also a web page will be opened
detailing transactions and much analysis - max dd, cons losses etc. including a graph

Alternaively - or in addition -you can copy all account history into a spreadsheet to do your own analysis.

Also if you enter a code 'Comment' when taking a position you can detail why you entered the trade, e.g. TP A = Trading Plan 'A', GN xxx = 'Good news for Ccy, PB H1, H&S, TL BO etc. etc and do further analysis on this field
  • #3,459
  • Nov 5, 2010 6:03pm Nov 5, 2010 6:03pm
Thanks traderray, excellent stuff for this newb. I've been following this thread vigilantly from the start and is a godsend for a rook like me trying to sift through the unending noise of failure to find something I can finally point my compass at and know if I stay the course I will arrive, conviction was never an issue, just direction.

What Graeme has done here is nothing short of a small miracle. Words truly cant express my gratitude. I know the sentiment is shared by many and has been thoroughly covered but I would be remiss not to personally acknowledge his efforts and priceless insight. Thank you sir.

How is everyone fairing with the Flying Buddhas? I've decided to work on that exclusively, for now, to make it my "one thing" in conjunction with the 3x20 excercises. Does anyone have any additional insight as to optimal Flying Buddhas? I.E. futher from the 5ema, with or against the current trend, wick size, relation to surrounding candles etc etc.

Im not sure why "Joe" only shorts his Buddhas but I know he has his reasons and Im sure they are sound....but Ive noticed many sinking Buddhas are successful when applied with the prevailing trend. Anyhow just some food for thought and always looking for additional info as information is KING in this business.

Thank you all for your contributions, I will be here for a long, long time.
DB44
  • #3,460
  • Nov 5, 2010 11:59pm Nov 5, 2010 11:59pm
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
Quoting deepblue44

Im not sure why "Joe" only shorts his Buddhas but I know he has his reasons and Im sure they are sound....but Ive noticed many sinking Buddhas are successful when applied with the prevailing trend.

If I'm not mistaken, I have read somewhere in the thread that the reason Joe only shorts his Buddhas is because "it fits his eyes" much better then long side. Not sure does this belong to your definition of "sound" reason :-P

Couldn't agree more on your kind words for Graeme's "Herculean" effort here.
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