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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #541
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:55am Nov 3, 2010 1:55am
DanUK , thank you again for sharing and I have one question regarding trade management. Is it ok to take partial profit at same number of pips we are risking and then move stop to BE, or actually, the moment when it is time to move stop to BE to take partial profit and let the rest of the position go as you stated in the beginning?
I trade NightMoves/ Hector's method now and as this trend following method looks similar like a cousin I like it too. Slight differences with entries but I like this method a lot. I have not taken any trades yet cause I keep reading the thread.
  • #542
  • Nov 3, 2010 11:16pm Nov 3, 2010 11:16pm
2 consecutive 20 period lows hit on 4 hr usdchf. Will it start trend down?
  • #543
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:12pm Nov 4, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Mist Gun
Thanks, Dan.

The ID that I used is of a character of a comic .

For my question earlier, I attached a chart of EUR/USD. On the 4H chart, it is obvious that it has been in an uptrend and currently entering consolidation period. In such condition, would it be wise to enter short at the top of consolidation? Or would you only look to go long when price reached the bottom of the range and ignore short even if it is at the top of the range?

Regards,
MG
Hi guys,

Sorry it's taken so long to get back to you... I shall try and get through a few replies tonight, starting with this question...

In this case I am still betting on the existing trend so I will be entering at the bottom of the range (as mentioned here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post4110892)

Keep with the trend until it shows it has changed!

Regards,

Dan
  • #544
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:14pm Nov 4, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting seifo005
I think the trend is changing on the USD/CHF
What you thing Dan ?

Attachment
Hi,

If I may refer you to this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post4117253 - my opinion is the down trend remains in place until the blue level is broken.

Regards,

Dan
  • #545
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:17pm Nov 4, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting casapips
Great Thread Dan !

Can you precise how are you identifying pairs to trade?
I mean are you doing an end of week analysis (on Saturday) on all pairs so to identify potential PA set up for next Monday?
I guess you are screening pairs based on your checklist that you have already posted.

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]Actually I am struggling to put in place a standard trading...
Hi,

At the end of each week I look at what has happened over the course of the week and confirm my thoughts about the trend and in most cases the trend will be the same as it was the week before so my plan is simple... continue to buy/sell pullbacks with the trend.

Then at the end of each day review the charts and see if price has pulled back to a s/r level and formed a trigger bar (as mentioned in my earlier posts) - if it hasn't then move on - if it has then place your order!

It's pretty much that simple! If that doesn't help though please let me know!

Regards,

Dan
  • #546
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:20pm Nov 4, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting GJP
Hi Dan,

Are you able to say what percentage of your trades go on to hit the 1,000 pip mark? I seem to be getting taken out a lot at break even.

Cheers
gjp
Hi GJP,

There are times when you will get a lot of break even trades... the percentage of long term successful trades are low. You may get a few trades that hit a couple hundred pips but the big 1000+ pip moves take a long time to establish. Patience is the key and trust me - once you've mastered it, it is worth the wait!

Regards,

Dan
  • #547
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:24pm Nov 4, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting TGpop
have just had an epiphane: use candlesticks!
having looked back at my losing trades, if i had waited for a good candlestick at the end of the pullback, i would've won, and would have had 2-3X better r:r

however, i'm not comfy with stop just over the candle, i'm going to place a 1ATR stop over the candle (depending on the timeframe)
Hi,

Great! You will find you have less trade setups than just entering at point X but as you have noticed you will have much more success!

Giving your trades room to breathe is also important and if you are happier with giving them more than a few pips beyond the candle that is fine too!

Regards,

Dan
  • #548
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:27pm Nov 4, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hi Dan, great thread, and nice to see a fellow Brit!

I noticed in your old thread you mention using Jackos anti hedge strategy for stop losses. Just wondering if you still used these?

Cant believe that Jackos thread turned out to be a scam by the way. I was quite disheartened when i flicked through to the end pages and realised what had happened, his system seemed very solid. Anyway, I will be following your thread eagerly.

Regards.
Hi,

Thank you!

Since moving to candlestick setups rather than just entering at a certain price I have decided not to use the anti-hedge strategy. Whilst it can work I prefer to wait for candlestick confirmation before entering (or re-entering).

Yes it is a shame about Jacko's thread as essentially the strategy works - a few tweaks (such as the addition of horizontal s/r and candlesticks) and it is a money maker!

Regards,

Dan
  • #549
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:29pm Nov 4, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting emacro
When one is talking about any trend, you have to define 'in what timeframe'
Hi,

For the purposes of this thread the trend is based on the daily charts.

Regards,

Dan
  • #550
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:32pm Nov 4, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting seifo005

Hi

We also have a nice pinbar against you on the monthly time frame; please be careful
Peace



Attachment

Hi,

The thing to remember about "pinbars" (or any other setup bar) is that the location is more important than the bar. The monthly pin would have to break heavy resistance in the 1.000 before winning out: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post4117253 as the trend remains down shorts are safer at the moment.

Regards,

Dan
  • #551
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:33pm Nov 4, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
Yep its dead in here at the mo. Annoying because Im really getting into this method of trading. Im not trading anything until after fomc tomorrow, and markets have clear direction.
I am back ladies and gents so hopefully we can continue down the path to riches lol!
  • #552
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:39pm Nov 4, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting shiko
DanUK , thank you again for sharing and I have one question regarding trade management. Is it ok to take partial profit at same number of pips we are risking and then move stop to BE, or actually, the moment when it is time to move stop to BE to take partial profit and let the rest of the position go as you stated in the beginning?


Hi,

With regards to taking partial profits, yes you can do it - of course, it is your choice after all. But the reason for taking partial profits is psychological rather than tactical. Partial profits are fine when things are going slowly and you would have been stopped out at breakeven (or worse) without taking partial profits but in the grand scheme of things they limit your potential rewards.

Patience is key here and in my humble opinion the best strategy is to hold full positions for as much profit as we can. Don't forget that if you took half of your position off and caught 1000 pips on the second half, you are only taking 500 pips profit (plus your smaller profit from the first half).

Of course, you have to do what is right for you because trading is psychological but the long term goal should be to maximize your profits from the big moves.

Regards,

Dan
  • #553
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:41pm Nov 4, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting emacro
2 consecutive 20 period lows hit on 4 hr usdchf. Will it start trend down?
Hi,

Just to clarify... the USD/CHF trend was already down - the trend should be gauged using daily charts not 4 hour charts.

Regards,

Dan
  • #554
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:59pm Nov 4, 2010 2:59pm
Ok chaps, I think I have replied to all PMs and have answered most questions directed at me. I have left a couple of posts that I felt have already been answered by the market!

If anyone feels I missed them please feel free to ask again... but for now - it is back to trading.

Something I am going to try and do is post my opinions on the trends and a little analysis for a few of the major pairs - just for newbies to compare to their own thoughts. Please note that this is not intended as trade signals or trade advice - just my own personal opinion on a few currency pairs! Also, remember - I don't do "to the pip" s/r levels which is why I mention "areas" of s/r.

USD/CHF - Down - next area of support in the 0.9500 area.

EUR/USD - Up - 1.4200 to 1.4300 offers a band of resistance that could cause price to pullback to 1.4000.

GBP/USD - Up - a daily close above resistance at 1.6250 could open up 1.6500 as the next target but a close below may suggest a pullback to 1.6000.

USD/JPY - Down - 80.00 offers the next area of support.

AUD/USD - Up - price has broken well above key resistance at 1.000 a re-test would be expected but not guaranteed!

USD/CAD - Down - key support at 1.000, if it finally breaks a 500 pip drop could be on the cards.

I hope that information may be of use to people trying to understand my way of thinking. I shall try to continue these kind of updates on at least a weekly basis but if they don't help I will stop!

Regards,

Dan
  • #555
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:59pm Nov 4, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi GJP,

There are times when you will get a lot of break even trades... the percentage of long term successful trades are low. You may get a few trades that hit a couple hundred pips but the big 1000+ pip moves take a long time to establish. Patience is the key and trust me - once you've mastered it, it is worth the wait!

Regards,

Dan


Thanks Dan.
  • #556
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:16pm Nov 4, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting seifo005

Hi

We also have a nice pinbar against you on the monthly time frame; please be careful
Peace



Attachment


Yes seifo005 good spot. It did retrace further from the pin bar and eventually got back on it's downward trend.
  • #557
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:40pm Nov 4, 2010 3:40pm
planning to go long eurusd if we get a pin bar formed at the highlighted level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: plan 1.png Size: 244 KB
  • #558
  • Nov 5, 2010 12:53am Nov 5, 2010 12:53am
That's perfect Dan, one of the best things you could post to help the new people and even us who have been around for a while

Quoting DanUK
Ok chaps, I think I have replied to all PMs and have answered most questions directed at me. I have left a couple of posts that I felt have already been answered by the market!

If anyone feels I missed them please feel free to ask again... but for now - it is back to trading.

Something I am going to try and do is post my opinions on the trends and a little analysis for a few of the major pairs - just for newbies to compare to their own thoughts. [b]Please note that this is not intended as trade signals or trade advice - just my own personal...
  • #559
  • Nov 5, 2010 1:29am Nov 5, 2010 1:29am
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

With regards to taking partial profits, yes you can do it - of course, it is your choice after all. But the reason for taking partial profits is psychological rather than tactical. Partial profits are fine when things are going slowly and you would have been stopped out at breakeven (or worse) without taking partial profits but in the grand scheme of things they limit your potential rewards.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Patience is key here and...


Dan, thank you.
My thinking was that yes, while I do take less in this case when my trade runs , but after counting how many trades went to BE and were stopped after I took partial profit, i would miss hundred of pips in profit this way. Not many trades become big runners. and yes, it is easier psychologically.
It would be great to have statistics when comparing taking partial profits vs. full size. I guess no one has done it. It mere guesses now.
Have a great weekend by the way
  • #560
  • Nov 5, 2010 1:57am Nov 5, 2010 1:57am
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

At the end of each week I look at what has happened over the course of the week and confirm my thoughts about the trend and in most cases the trend will be the same as it was the week before so my plan is simple... continue to buy/sell pullbacks with the trend.

Then at the end of each day review the charts and see if price has pulled back to a s/r level and formed a trigger bar (as mentioned in my earlier posts) - if it hasn't then move on - if it has then place your order!

It's pretty much that simple! If that doesn't help though...
Merci Dan! It helps a lot.
I am looking forward your weekly analysis ... it will help to see if I am surfing the same wave.

All the best!
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