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  • #3,421
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:03pm Nov 3, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting Eklavya
Hey pipfirst..the orange lines represent open price for the day...
Actually, I believe the orange line represents the high of the current H4 candle, which represents strong resistance. I'm sure Graeme will correct me if I'm wrong.

Kevin
  • #3,422
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:24pm Nov 3, 2010 1:24pm
Good morning,

Pippirate - Your price action interpretation looks good for pin bar/fb entries. Your question is more to how/why is my positions getting stopped out at BE when they were so hard to get it established. Especially when they have doubled/tripled your account balance in unrealized profit and then, to see them hit BE few hours/days later.

This is the question that is asked many times. Why is it happening? How can I prevent it?

Each trader needs to buildup at least 100 hours of trading. Demo or live. At the moment most readers do not have any statistical data on their trading. They dont know how much they are spending to establish 'x' number of positions. What their median profit taking is. And the average drawdown before 'x' multiplication of account equity.

I have been trading for some time to know exactly what my statistics are. And Im also risk tolerant and confident to hold onto my positions for the best golden runs. Some readers believe it is because I have large capital but its not the capital but self awareness of my statistics.

When you first start, you % rate will fluctuate for the first few weeks.

1st week - 50%
2nd week - 80%

You cant stop there and say, "my average win rate is 65% over the 2 weeks" so I will adjust my r:r accordingly. 1:2 should be enough

But then..

3rd week - 20%
4th week - 10%

Now your average win rate is 40% and you find that 1:2 made you lose money.

Then traders will give up, log into forum and post saying it doesnt work because they have already spent all their capital on the first 4 week.

Your true win rate, median drawdown,

Do you know your:

1. win rate
2. median drawdown
3. average realized drawdown per week
4. average realized drawdown per month
5. largest unrealized profit by monthly
6. median unrealized profit by monthly

You need to know your statistics, just like a shop owner knowing how much they buy items from wholesale and how much they sell for to retail.

Pipfirst - The horizontal line is just drawn at 50% of the previous candle to show that current 4hr candle retraced and bounced. You will find this very often. Also it is resistance and open price of the day

Roadrunner - Good trading plan. There is one catch to stacking positions on small timeframes. You need to know when to trade and above all control your risk. Never try too much in one sitting or one 4hr candle.
  • #3,423
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:07pm Nov 3, 2010 2:07pm
Good morning Graeme,

There are crazy candles on many pairs...

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #3,424
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:53pm Nov 3, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting cameron1st
Good morning Graeme,

There are crazy candles on many pairs...

Kindest Regards,

Cam
FOMC - make sure to keep an eye on the big news releases as if your zooming into 5-min you can get burned without being aware. FF and econoday are good news calendars
  • #3,425
  • Edited 5:35pm Nov 3, 2010 3:17pm | Edited 5:35pm
Today was my first day of trying razor sharp entries using higher time frames for bias and build a position using 5 min time frame.

5 trades -42 pips, that's 8.4 pips risk
Per trade for something big. Unfortunately it did not happen today but I am happy to get started and will stay with it!
  • #3,426
  • Edited 9:55pm Nov 3, 2010 8:34pm | Edited 9:55pm
Hi Graeme,

Can you elaborate a bit on stops? From your charts I see TP lines but I do not see stop lines. Are you trading without stops?

The way I have been doing it I always move SL to BE before opening another position. It does not look like you are doing that as far as I can tell.
  • #3,427
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:23pm Nov 3, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting hubbahubba
Hi Graeme,

Can you elaborate a bit on stops? From your charts I see TP lines but I do not see stop lines. Are you trading without stops?

They way I have been doing it I always move SL to BE before opening another position. It does not look like you are doing that as far as I can tell.
Hubbahubba,

Please take the time to read the thread from the start, see this question of yours has been replied to already, post 911 (but there are more posts in the past covering the subject):

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=911

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #3,428
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:39pm Nov 3, 2010 9:39pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hubbahubba,

Please take the time to read the thread from the start, see this question of yours has been replied to already, post 911 (but there are more posts in the past covering the subject):

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=911

Kindest Regards,

Cam
I have read the entire thread more than once and a lot of it may times. That post does not really answer my question.
  • #3,429
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:46pm Nov 3, 2010 9:46pm
hubbahubba,

Post 3 (first page):

"I also stopped using stop losses for most part of my trading."

So friend, perhaps one more read of the thread ?

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #3,430
  • Edited 10:19pm Nov 3, 2010 10:00pm | Edited 10:19pm
Quoting cameron1st
hubbahubba,

Post 3 (first page):

"I also stopped using stop losses for most part of my trading."

So friend, perhaps one more read of the thread ?

Kindest Regards,

Cam
I guess I am missing the secret decoder ring because I do not see anything about stops in that post and yes I do remember all that. I do remember him talking about not using stops sometimes but I also remember him talking about using them sometimes. I am asking about what Graeme is doing NOW. As in his last few posts and why.
  • #3,431
  • Nov 4, 2010 12:43am Nov 4, 2010 12:43am
Quoting chips
The philosophy behind Graeme trading style is universal.
---
---
Thing is Graeme have a lot of capital so he does not need to reward himself intra-week or day.
---
---
Good post Chip. If I may, kindly allow me address the "lot of capital" comment you and others have made. The amount of trading capital should have ZERO effect on profitability of any strategy unless you have reached the 20+million in trade size after which liquidity could play a role in your broker/ecn order book. Graeme's position size has always been 2 standard lots even with his large account size. He has mentioned many times that greed/exposure need to be in control as you WILL have a series of consecutive losses... no doubt about it.

To me, a long running 1000+pips leg on just one pair is all you would need to see the potential of this trading approach and to regain confidence by ten fold to your trading phycology. I bet even Graeme must have had similar thoughts and concerns way back when he started building out his very first 1000+ pip leg.

My previous post on a live EURUSD trade ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3158 ) is still going strong at 1100+ pips. Unfortunately, my MM/exposure rules did not allow me to stack more positions otherwise I could have easily doubled my account by stacking just a few entries!

Best Regards,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,432
  • Nov 4, 2010 12:51am Nov 4, 2010 12:51am
  •  acim
  • | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: I'd rather be stacking :-P | 46 Posts
Quoting hubbahubba
I guess I am missing the secret decoder ring because I do not see anything about stops in that post and yes I do remember all that. I do remember him talking about not using stops sometimes but I also remember him talking about using them sometimes. I am asking about what Graeme is doing NOW. As in his last few posts and why.

Now behave yourself kids (Cam and hubbahubba) ....lol

Looks like both of you :-) have to reread awesome detailed posts from Graeme since his most welcomed and greatly appreciated "resurrection"

I will point to some of his posts, but before I do that I will take a freedom and briefly summarize what I think how he uses them (on "intraweek" trades).

It's obvious that there are no hard rules (e.g. SL is 20 pips), but stops are dictated by charts (candles, wicks, daily open, 4 hour open, etc), set-ups and initial entry reasonings.

More importantly his SL's are not "set and forget" type. He is watching PA closely to decide weather to move SL, leave it, or close the trade all-together regardless where his "initial" SL was.

Just like his pinpoint entries, SL's need also a lot of "chart time". (one can call it "art" of trading)


So ....... starting with page 225

- post 3363 (trade closed because of pin bar against his trade)

- post 3372 last picture

- post 3379 comment before last pic

- post 3383 pics 2 & 4

- post 3384 great post for stops ( pics 2-5)

- post 3398 (page 227)


Hope this will help hubbahubba :-)


P.S. We are all here with different trading knowledge, language, age, culture, etc, eager to absorb whatever Greame is so unselfishly willing to share. Let's all post in the same manner and help each other like he is so beautifully demonstrating with his posts and replies.


Ron
  • #3,433
  • Edited 1:56am Nov 4, 2010 1:38am | Edited 1:56am
Quoting acim
Now behave yourself kids (Cam and hubbahubba) ....lol

Looks like both of you...
3398 has one stop and 8 sell orders. The first one you posted appears to have a stop for each of the 3 buys. So why stops on one and not the other? I noticed that before but didn't mention it because I was afraid it would just distract from my basic question.

I'm guessing 3398 is when he is sitting in front of the computer eyes glued ready for manual intervention and the first one with stops for each buy was set before he was going to be away from the computer. But I don't know for sure which is why I am asking.
  • #3,434
  • Nov 4, 2010 1:55am Nov 4, 2010 1:55am
Dear Graeme,

Wonderful to see you back!!! Hope things are getting better.

You are building a millipede of Good Karma as well, by your exceptional effort to help fellow traders.

Thanks a ton and all the very best.

TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #3,435
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:13am Nov 4, 2010 2:13am
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning,

Pippirate - Your price action interpretation looks good for pin bar/fb entries. Your question is more to how/why is my positions getting stopped out at BE when they were so hard to get it established. Especially when they have doubled/tripled your account balance in unrealized profit and then, to see them hit BE few hours/days later.

This is the question that is asked many times. Why is it happening? How can I prevent it?

Each trader needs to buildup at least 100 hours of trading. Demo or live. At the moment most readers do...
Thanks for the reply graeme ! appriciate it very much!
I have felt many times the last months that im soo sooo close to beeing a profitable trader, It's like I can feel it in my whole body. I've gone from consistently loosing to consistently Breaking even and having seen some big move ups in floating equity and much of it because of this thread.

My biggest shift in mentality was when I discovered that the market is all relative.

I try to measure it relative to my entry's as if I am the center of it all but seeing that isn't the case I can relax try to enter as cheaply as possible and let it do it's thing.

It just doesn't care! Much like the universe!

Oops went abit off course there

Now to answer:
Im very happy with my initial entrys right now and I have rules written down.
Im not very happy about my tries at stacking!

I haven't done the calculations the last 2 weeks but initial entry is above 85% counting BE's
But if i count with my miserable performence of trying to stack it's below 40%
So did some hard thinking yesterday after reading your post and I again I need to make a shift in my thinking.
My biggest error is "giving" myself a daily allowance to loose 5$ on my entries as i see myself as in training. So after doing a nice initial entry that has come my way i feel like i have 5$ to take further entrys with and I blow them on not so stellar entrys.
And then when my initial trade comes back to BE a few hours or days later I am at a loss. I need to STOP that!
And I will create some kind of excel sheet where i can measure my performance better right now I just have a trade diary where I put in a Screenshot and reasons for the trade. But I lack in the overall picture on my performance

Really long post! I can write lots more on my thoughts but don't want to take all the space here
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent.
  • #3,436
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:48am Nov 4, 2010 2:48am
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #3,437
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:14am Nov 4, 2010 3:14am
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, VEEFX

I have read your detailed post few times.

I promised to send you a PM but I thought I will post it into the forum.

Your post comprises of much thought and it seems you had few enlightenment with the project we did....
---
---
I wonder if my new showings will fuel more confusion than clarity.

Sometimes I just dont know how to answer one question earnestly without spawning another 2. I dont mind the questions however am I providing the right direction as my intention?

Sincerely,

Graeme
Hello Graeme,

You are definitely bringing in a whole lot of clarity with your recent posts. I read and re-read your theory on tolerance and how you 'know' your own tolerance based on your own personal trading history. Fantastic approach to tolerance by engraving your own trading style based on your past trading performance. Every subsequent post brought clarity to questions I had about this project and post #3422 finally did it for me. I have been doing much of what you mentioned in http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3422 with my trade blotter but only at a individual trade level for each of my current strategies. I clearly see the benefit of bundling and aggregating this level of 'self assessment' at each profiting ground level. I have no idea how to incorporate this in my current blotter (which is already quite complex) but it is vitally important to have this in place during our exploratory phase of this learning expedition. Once has to do their own "self-awareness"

Having said this, I do have one loose end that I need to tie at this juncture.

Let's assume my profiting ground equates to 1500 pips and my tolerance (based on past 100s of trades) is telling me to tap out at 800 pips:

If a pair goes into range for a very long duration, would you recommend a rigid rule to STOP trading this pair once my total SLs for this profiting ground approaches 800 pips? I can see pros and cons of such an enforcement.

Personally, I would not like to enforce such a rule. Instead, I would increase the frequency of my short term profit-taking trades once I reach 50% of my tolerance level (i.e. 400 pips of bundled SL trades) to allow me to stay on the path of building 'infinite yield'. (I think I might have just answered my own question! )

p.s. I really like your intraweek idea of setting few trades at TP and leaving one or two at BE. it's best of both worlds for most readers :-

Thanks again for your live trades. They have been very helpful.

Regards,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,438
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:40am Nov 4, 2010 3:40am
Quoting Pip_Pirate
Thanks for the reply graeme ! appriciate it very much!
I have felt many times the last months that im soo sooo close to beeing a profitable trader, It's like I can feel it in my whole body. I've gone from consistently loosing to consistently Breaking even and...
Hi Pip_pirate,

I wanted to pm you but looks like you are not allowed to receive PMs. Just wanted to say this before I go to bed.

Your "85% counting BE's" is really incredible! It would be interesting to reveal to yourself what your min, average and max pip range of floating profits is among all those BE trades. If average pips is closer to your SL pip level, I you on your success... if it is not, you may not be leaving too much room for your trades to grow.... just my 2 cents.

I am still perfecting my thought process behind "Move SL to BE". I think it needs to be based on PA confirmation of trend continuation instead of an arbitrary "Move SL to BE when floating profit is 20 pips".
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,439
  • Nov 4, 2010 4:36am Nov 4, 2010 4:36am
Hi Pip_pirate,

I wanted to pm you but looks like you are not allowed to receive PMs. Just wanted to say this before I go to bed.
Yes just signed up yesterday so think it will be some time before i have full rights on this forum!

 Your "85% counting BE's" is really incredible! It would be interesting to reveal to yourself what your min, average and max pip range of floating profits is among all those BE trades. If average pips is closer to your SL pip level, I you on your success... if it is not, you may not be leaving..
When i wrote my "system" or rules it all seemed very clear to me and there was not much leeway for interpretation and trading on feelings but as I see now when I try explain what and how I do I notice that my rules aren't so set as I think they should be !
I have my diary and trading rules at home maybe I can later show it so we can share discuss and learn from each other.

For example i have stated that I will only take trades with the trend.
I dont know wich(which?) trend 15min,hourly daily ? hmmm

Thanks alot for the questions they open my eyes and gives me alot to figure out.
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent.
  • #3,440
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:05am Nov 4, 2010 6:05am
Hi Graeme,

I have started the 3X20 daily exercise. I have a question...the framework of the exercise is quite clear. However I am thinking it will make more sense to have the flexibility to cut the trade if it is not behaving as initially planned...so if it goes to +19, we should be able to cut it at a logical place and not take the full 20 pip loss.

This is against the rules you gave us and you have done this for months before, so thought I'd ask if it would be a good idea to cut the trade before it hits the stoploss.

The other reason for doing that is if the market we entered goes into a consolidation, then we could start looking at other markets for opportunities and, as we cannot have more than one open trade, we will have to cut the position to trade the currently hot market.

Thanks for all the help and the time you spend it teaching us. Your posts are true gems and everytime I read them I learn something new. I think it is truly coming together for me. The trades I am taking are going my way immediately after I take them and I am not finding any need to take a full loss on trades.

Warm Regards,
Eklavya
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