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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,121
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:54am Nov 3, 2010 3:54am
Its scary... USD JPY locked in a 10 pip range now for more then 12 hours... wow...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,122
  • Nov 3, 2010 4:43am Nov 3, 2010 4:43am
Still climbing up the trend line so far this week. Another touch of the 80.94 Pivot is likely.

USD/JPY M5 01/11 - 05/11
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  • #21,123
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:55am Nov 3, 2010 5:55am
Quoting fosking
Still climbing up the trend line so far this week. Another touch of the 80.94 Pivot is likely.

USD/JPY M5 01/11 - 05/11
Attachment
Touch? More likely that it goes through it and leaves it way behind, just patience is needed here.
Too much patience but still ......

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #21,124
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:06am Nov 3, 2010 7:06am
Guys be warned that the Fed's QE2 announcement will probably send USD/JPY to record low unless the amount of the assets purchase program is much lower than expected. Once the 79.75 threshold is broken nobody knows what the next support is gonna be...think about how many longs have their stops in that area.
  • #21,125
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:10am Nov 3, 2010 7:10am
Quoting ts63
Guys be warned that Fed's QE2 announcement will probably send USD/JPY to record low unless the amount of the assets purchase program is much lower than expected. Once the 79.75 threshold is broken nobody knows what the next support is gonna be...think about how many longs have their stops in that area.
ok, yes, but if it where so easy, I could make a lot of money this week...

Be aware that a big fight is going to start once we approach 79.75 and an even fiercer battle if this level should be broken...

Stay on the sidelines is the only thing I can say with good conscience.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,126
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:38am Nov 3, 2010 7:38am
i don't see any logical reason to tell whether UJ is going north or south. i mean if you want to hear reasons as to why it can go up or down, we can make lots of reasons why this go here and there? merely because you see what you want to see.
if you say this is a sign of reversal, i can say this is just a retracement. there have been too many speculation here and there...if i think uj will go up, and take position accordingly, and apparently the market does follow my direction, then i am lucky. but when it goes to another direction, i'll just pick up reason on one two trading news, and that's it....
i myself believe this pair will have to reach 80.00. before any sign of reversal. forgive me if it ends up not that way...., but really, my chart does not give me any sign of technical bullish, if you are going long, you can just rely on spikes and intervention, to which are not analyzeable.
  • #21,127
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:01am Nov 3, 2010 8:01am
Quoting faelnirv
but really, my chart does not give me any sign of technical bullish
A 4 hour close above 80.90 would definitely seem bullish to me.
My personal opinion ..... we will not reach the all time low. But who am I - just a trader that tries to make some money here.
And this week has been quite successful so far with trading UJ, something I actually never do. I had 2 of the biggest trades I ever did, both successful.
I must say that UJ lingering so close to that all time low is trading with low risk and very attractive to me.
And yes I'm long and in gain at the moment.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #21,128
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:11am Nov 3, 2010 8:11am
Quoting KillerWhale
Touch? More likely that it goes through it and leaves it way behind, just patience is needed here.
Too much patience but still ......

Shamu

USD/JPY M5 01/11 - 05/11
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  • #21,129
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:16am Nov 3, 2010 8:16am
bullish to 81.17, and some good news await 45 minute later... could it reach 81.40? before the FOMC news?
  • #21,130
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:19am Nov 3, 2010 8:19am
I don't get this ascending in UJ. I really wonder if QE2 doesn't mean anything to who are going long now.... pretty perplexing...

I have a couple of long positions now and can't decide if (1) I should take profit now assuming it will come down after QE2 this afternoon, or (2) I should let it go until I get a sign of decline.

Maybe (2) is the right answer...

Your thought?
  • #21,131
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:24am Nov 3, 2010 8:24am
Quoting Forexgogo
I don't get this ascending in UJ. I really wonder if QE2 doesn't mean anything to who are going long now.... pretty perplexing...

I have a couple of long positions now and can't decide if (1) I should take profit now assuming it will come down after QE2 this afternoon, or (2) I should let it go until I get a sign of decline.

Maybe (2) is the right answer...

Your thought?
I think it depends on how big your position size is and how long you intend holding it. To go long now on UJ is very risky but then again so is going short.
  • #21,132
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:28am Nov 3, 2010 8:28am
I have a hunch that JP is intervening now. What do you think?
  • #21,133
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:30am Nov 3, 2010 8:30am
Quoting Forexgogo
I have a hunch that JP is intervening now. What do you think?
hm, slow and steady intervention? Why not... they said they are going to surprise the markets...

maybe the best surprise would be a very slow intervention...
a crawling intervention... so that nobody can fade it....
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,134
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:55am Nov 3, 2010 8:55am
Quoting goods
bullish diversion
Took profit on one trade, i am letting this one run. I am looking for trend change to bullish uj
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Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #21,135
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:55am Nov 3, 2010 8:55am
Powering up to the weekly R1 and high of the week.

USD/JPY M5 01/11 - 05/11
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  • #21,136
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:56am Nov 3, 2010 8:56am
Quoting Forexgogo
I have a hunch that JP is intervening now. What do you think?
I'm almost sure, there's finally real Yen weakness to be noticed, just hope Bernanke will not spoil things
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,137
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:58am Nov 3, 2010 8:58am
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change +43.000
this is the source of the rise... when the fomc is out, it will come down again..maybe...with a lot of news approaching, i am afraid using technicals won't do much of a luck....
however, considering japanese is willing to intervene, long is safer..one of my buy limit was triggered, and now i am looking to short small position at 81.55-81.65, if it ever reaches that point...
  • #21,138
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:59am Nov 3, 2010 8:59am
If this was JP intervention, it is incredibly smart -- right before QE2, what can you do? Very little. JP can do anything in their own way...

Just my two cent

PS I'm still holding all my longs in UJ... Don't have guts to take profit... (so afraid if it IS JP intervention)
  • #21,139
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:09am Nov 3, 2010 9:09am
Quoting Forexgogo

PS I'm still holding all my longs in UJ... Don't have guts to take profit... (so afraid if it IS JP intervention)
Same for me, let's see it as demo-money only, then we may hit the Jackpot
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,140
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:11am Nov 3, 2010 9:11am
Bounce off weekly R1 and 81.50

USD/JPY M5 01/11 - 05/11
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