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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #262,961
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:41am Nov 3, 2010 5:41am
Quoting wormboy
oops
Welcome to the oops club....i joined at 9.30am this morning
Enter Signature
  • #262,962
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:41am Nov 3, 2010 5:41am
we may have formed a temporary top here. TPed at R2, closed out the rest of my postion here 6129. off to dinner and some sleep before round 2.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1288766292

Quoting wormboy
oops
hey bro! we still have Obama speech and FOMC coming.

next setup

could go through the floor for all we know before this is day is over.
  • #262,963
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:41am Nov 3, 2010 5:41am
Quoting MisterTrader
So everybody ready for the USD Dollar toilet paper destruction tonight ?

are u? if u are, start buying now!
  • #262,964
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:46am Nov 3, 2010 5:46am
im gonna wait and see before I join this club. C u later.

G/L
Attached Image
ex member
  • #262,965
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:47am Nov 3, 2010 5:47am
Quoting Fudomyo
WR1 looks good. Depending on momentum +2/8 may be on the table as well.
Sticking w/ my plan, R2 next TP.

It's going to be a long night. FOMC is 3AM here...lol
Closed my gu n gj longs .

U trading FOMC mate ???

11.45 pm my time.

I will be dozing off .Have a nice one bro.Catch u later.

Good luck to you.
  • #262,966
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:58am Nov 3, 2010 5:58am
trend line at blue circle is good and it touch bollinger , i'm 'in' in that.
for TP, actually i want out at R2 but some time my broke-r are cheat, so little down at 6138, (also near trend line, right?, and TP)
will consider to re-enter if go near yellow box. 1.6058. (optional)
if today candle make a spin but still green color, so tomorrow maybe we start at japan open.



ps: 1.6145 also 'maybe' not the highest of this day, i'm out cos usd news could push it down till half of today move, i can't lose that profit. TP is better.

see you,

Java.
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I will be the number one Manager.
  • #262,967
  • Nov 3, 2010 6:00am Nov 3, 2010 6:00am
Quoting yuan83
are u? if u are, start buying now!
I could be wrong but now is not the time to buy

It's already done a considerable up move and dollar news still to come

Don't be surprised if daily closes below 1.60
Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #262,968
  • Nov 3, 2010 6:02am Nov 3, 2010 6:02am
Quoting honeybhi
Closed my gu n gj longs .

U trading FOMC mate ???

11.45 pm my time.

I will be dozing off .Have a nice one bro.Catch u later.

Good luck to you.
well, considering this is the event the market's have been building towards the past couple of months, a lot could happen. (...or nothing)

let's see.

I've got a funny itch. let's say the markets tumble on the day the Reps win? is doubtful, but you never know.

it'll be interesting to see what Bernanke does.

anyway, have a good rest! nice trading as usual.
  • #262,969
  • Nov 3, 2010 6:39am Nov 3, 2010 6:39am
Hey there Traders,

Any advice gratefully received!

On a breakout - how many pips do you let it ride before you jump on the ride. I seem to fail miserably at it frequently. Either too late late or it only moves 10 pips and turns back.

I see some comments on here that you can confirm it. I look at lower T/F's but it's just a mini version of whats going on in the next T/F!

Not many ever report a loss on here, so you must be doing something right...lol....or your fibbing about the great sucess everyday.

Myself - frequent losses at the moment!......I don't mind admitting.

Help!!!!...lol
  • #262,970
  • Nov 3, 2010 6:42am Nov 3, 2010 6:42am
Try to set orders just above or below the breakout line or enter at retests, and watch the fakouts.

Quoting TommyPips
Hey there Traders,

Any advice gratefully received!

On a breakout - how many pips do you let it ride before you jump on the ride....
Hello.
  • #262,971
  • Nov 3, 2010 6:50am Nov 3, 2010 6:50am
Quoting TommyPips
Hey there Traders,

Any advice gratefully received!

On a breakout - how many pips do you let it ride before you jump on the ride....
Sorry to hear abt your losses.

Look at higher TF for trend and use smaller TF for entry .

Use previous high low swings, fibs on higher TF and pivot points for targets.

Try drawing yourself some trendlines,horizontal supp/res on bigger TF like weekly,daily and look out how they work.

Losses are part of the game ,no one can trade 100%.
  • #262,972
  • Nov 3, 2010 6:56am Nov 3, 2010 6:56am
Quoting TommyPips
Hey there Traders,

Any advice gratefully received!

On a breakout - how many pips do you let it ride before you jump on the ride....

Have a look at the chart below. This is a basic range view of today, not including my levels, just keeping it simple.

You can see the 3 grey areas that act as SR for today, the 2 green boxes are the ranges for breakout, the MA is the 25EMA (go visit Magix thread for more work on MA's he's pretty good.)

So this morning range was formed above the low with a clear resistance based on the Asia move bottoming and the Franky session, that break out was pretty clear, it poked through the top, went through the EMA and through the next SR (with a few tests) and formed the days high only to be exhausted and the SR to be tested from the top, you can now put up the second green box as a mini range and that range was pretty textbook, we got the test, the break up to the day's high and the retest and that's where we are now, the 25 EMA is still guiding you in direction, the next play would be for another test of the day's high, a break a retest from the top and a continuation.

So for a range breakout trader there were only 2 sets on EURUSD so far. And I put up fibre because it is so much easier to trade and spot for a newer trader and I am pretty sure you have actually not yet looked at it today.

Alternative guidance could be MACD you like set at 12,26,9 for guidance, only trade the breaks that are supported with it, other ways are Stochs, or divergences on smaller TF's, have a look at bbmac's post for some nice setups.

A breakout trader is not going to be succesful after a few days of this and would need some serious screentime to be halfway decent. What you need to do is find a way of trading that suits you and stick with it and not jump back and forth between different methods after a few days of giving it a go.

We all have losses, some of us are just a bit better in identifying a bum trade and getting out of dodge a lot quicker then others. There are plenty of times where I can have several losses in a row before I get the right trade and can let it run.
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  • #262,973
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:07am Nov 3, 2010 7:07am
loses are a part of it. I take my share like any other trader (and post them as well). I just try to cut them early and get in again on the right side if the PA moves against me.

it's not about getting it right every time. it's more about understanding PA behavior, and recognizing the set ups.


google "breakout chart patterns". there's a ton of stuff on the web.

Bulkowski is a good place to start.


Quoting TommyPips
Hey there Traders,

Any advice gratefully received!

On a breakout - how many pips do you let it ride before you jump on the ride....
  • #262,974
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:14am Nov 3, 2010 7:14am
Thanks fellow traders,

I know losses are inevitable!

Maybe I was lucky to begin with. All seems to have gone to pot now!...lol

I'll take on board all your advice. Yes I'll google that - thanks.

Great crowd here.

I've not been posting much - too busy trying to get out of my messy tades...lol

Watching & learning etc..
  • #262,975
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:19am Nov 3, 2010 7:19am
Quoting TommyPips
Thanks fellow traders,

I know losses are inevitable!

Maybe I was lucky to begin with. All seems to have gone to pot now!...lol

I'll take on board all your advice. Yes I'll google that - thanks.

Great crowd here.

I've not been posting much - too busy trying to get out of my messy tades...lol

Watching & learning etc..

Easiest way to get out of shit trades is to hit the close button...

They really can go from "Bad" to "OMFG what happened to all my money"?!?!??
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #262,976
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:19am Nov 3, 2010 7:19am
Quoting cloggie
Have a look at the chart below. This is a basic range view of today, not including my levels, just keeping it simple.


We all have losses, some of us are just a bit better in identifying a bum trade and getting out of dodge a lot quicker then others. There are plenty of times where I can have several losses in a row before I get the right trade and can let it run.
Hi Cloggie,

Thanks for that. Your absolutely right, I haven't looked at EUR/GBP. I only tend to look at cable.

Thanks for taking time to write such a descriptive explanation.

I've copy/pasted it - need to re-read several times and absorb....lol

With the chart it's helpful to see what you mean - Thanks!

I'll be glad to get some consistancy back, thats all I want !
  • #262,977
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:20am Nov 3, 2010 7:20am
Just on another note to shoot the cr@p on funnymentals. Do you notice how every commodity and risk currency is currently at the high right before FOMC? The big boys are not shying away from risk and nobody is long dollar or short commodities. I am normally a fan of the market posititioning itself at a favourable level for news but this month long risk drive is taking it a bit far in my book. We can't have the entire market positioning itself for a fall that would never work.

This is not something to trade from really, just pondering here. But my gut feeling is the market surely expects more risk on in the weeks to come with the corresponding further drop in the dollar. Even the GOP taking the house has not had an effect as I would have expected the dollar to strengthen on the back of that win.

All the big boys are short dollar and long risk.

Ah well, we'll see, but I am not going to long the dollar any time soon, that's for sure.
  • #262,978
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:21am Nov 3, 2010 7:21am
Quoting Magix
Easiest way to get out of shit trades is to hit the close button...

They really can go from "Bad" to "OMFG what happened to all my money"?!?!??
Very true!

Lol........
  • #262,979
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:21am Nov 3, 2010 7:21am
Most breakouts are false-period....these are either a false 1st b/o-puullback to congestion and then a 2nd b/o or false-period. Ask your self, what are you breaking out into in respect of the t/f above your b/o...also how is the congestion or level broken?....look at cable 5min today the grey boxes are mini congestion (bull flags some may call the 1st 2 ) on 5min...look at the 1st 2, a bullish thrust breakout on both, but on the 3rd the highest, not so....the 1st 2 were the highest in probability...also look at where your macd signal line (or ma's) are pointing on the t/f's above your's used for the b/o when it does b/o...these are some clues as to how to get hi-probability breakouts...

Quoting TommyPips
Thanks fellow traders,

I know losses are inevitable!

Maybe I was lucky to begin with. All seems to have gone to pot now!...lol

I'll take on board all your advice. Yes I'll google that - thanks.

Great crowd here.

I've not been posting much - too busy trying to get out of my messy tades...lol

Watching & learning etc..
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ex member
  • #262,980
  • Nov 3, 2010 7:21am Nov 3, 2010 7:21am
Quoting TommyPips
Hi Cloggie,

Thanks for that. Your absolutely right, I haven't looked at EUR/GBP. I only tend to look at cable.

Thanks for taking time to write such a descriptive explanation.

I've copy/pasted it - need to re-read several times and absorb....lol

With the chart it's helpful to see what you mean - Thanks!

I'll be glad to get some consistancy back, thats all I want !

Nah stay away from EG, look at EU, that is the easier and slower one to trade for the noobies.
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