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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #262,841
  • Nov 2, 2010 10:14am Nov 2, 2010 10:14am
We are about to see Dollar SELL frenzy , so in the light of the upcoming events , I really don't think that any body will be holding on to his dollars .
The main Idea is " It's a Super free trade " i.e free money , by being simply simple SELL DOLLARS...Buy anything else . Euro is the anti-dollar is the best choice and so the pound will follow + AUD is now in favor having raised rates today i.e Huge move to the upside .

HAPPY FREE TRADES FOR YOU ALL
  • #262,842
  • Nov 2, 2010 10:18am Nov 2, 2010 10:18am
We may get some movement with LC, but since there's no news to drive PA atm, this appears to be our current sandbox.

Taking off until London session (Japan Bank holiday tomorrow)

Good luck w/ your trades
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  • #262,843
  • Nov 2, 2010 10:41am Nov 2, 2010 10:41am
Okay, so here is the way I see things currently...

We are still below roll over price, but that is only as for now...who knows what a little surge could bring....

Area on the chart...
1. Hourly support.
2. Hourly resistance.
3. 200 EMA on hourly.

Aight...so, we either see 1 hold and buy up to 2 and then crush back down to 3....

OR

We see a crush down to 3 and a buy back up to 2...

Without wanting to play through expectations, I will take triggers on the shorter with a bullish bias shooting for hourly resistance, from there, will watch for an hourly sell and target the 200EMA.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #262,844
  • Nov 2, 2010 10:44am Nov 2, 2010 10:44am
Just backl at desk for a look-see after my own trading session finished in thie late London morning earlier.

Fall from the current intraday 6079 Hi (in previous 1hr/4hr/daily swing hi zone stretching to 6088 then 6107) has seen pairing achieve 74% of it's 20day average pip range to the current intraday lo 5960 in the previous 4hr swing hi x 2 zone, now a previous 1hr swing lo zone also....price has stayed below the daily pivot (6041) on the pullbacksee-ing fresh supply come in at the previous 1hr swing lo zone around there and the 61.8% of the intraday move down.

A poster above taking for granted that Fed will launch QE2 tomorrow and that will see a big knee-jerk $ sell-off. The greater probability is that it may well do if $500bn, but if $250bn - well that could be a different story ? Some holding longs going into it doubtless. I end the day flat and will be back for London morning tomorrow with a break and then back for that Fomc annoucement, with an eye on the U.s mid-terms and effects also. A raft of U.s data before the fomc also.

Current 1hr screenshot is below.

G/L
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ex member
  • #262,845
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:25pm Nov 2, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting cloggie
IF 5991 does give we are looking at 6044, why? have a look at yesterday's play.


Well, that worked to a charm.

That pesky 6038 has been the pivot driver all day long.
  • #262,846
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:27pm Nov 2, 2010 12:27pm
Very Nice on the little bullside play here.

A crush through daily open and we could see this as support backed with the 15m long hold.

A retrace to Roll would be expected on clearing this zone, but still watching for a little more meat on the bone.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #262,847
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:27pm Nov 2, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting cloggie

For those keeping an eye on Fibre, my earlier level of 4038 will trigger 4070, don't go jumping the gun though.


And that is getting there nicely, so for those that give a toss, there has been a good few easily identifiable levels to trade of today in both fibre and cable.

In fibre 4007 has been the key all day as I posted early this morning.

Quoting cloggie
Oh yeah. And that move in fibre gave us a secondary trigger for the move in Cable, 4007 and 3977
All one had to do really today was figuring out the directions between the levels.
  • #262,848
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:31pm Nov 2, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting hipcio
I would look for buy price action somewhere around the blue shape - if I traded 15 min

Peter
As expected came down and moved back up as expected ,

Peter
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Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #262,849
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:36pm Nov 2, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting Magix
Very Nice on the little bullside play here.

A crush through daily open and we could see this as support backed with the 15m long hold.

A retrace to Roll would be expected on clearing this zone, but still watching for a little more meat on the bone.

The yooro is playing the same game with 4038 that holding would see a continuation of the bull move also.

I still would like to see 4070 followed by 4099, but 4038 has to hold on the retrace or else 4007 comes back into play.
  • #262,850
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:45pm Nov 2, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting cloggie
The yooro is playing the same game with 4038 that holding would see a continuation of the bull move also.

I still would like to see 4070 followed by 4099, but 4038 has to hold on the retrace or else 4007 comes back into play.
A good strong Bear close on EU here and we could see this shooting back to what was the UTL and now the support line. M15 long line support...

Might look a little like chart below.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #262,851
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:46pm Nov 2, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting Magix
A good strong Bear close on EU here and we could see this shooting back to what was the UTL and now the support line. M15 long line support...

Might look a little like chart below.
I got roughly the same play depending on 4038 and 4007, they really have been the drivers today.
  • #262,852
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:47pm Nov 2, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting cloggie
I got roughly the same play depending on 4038 and 4007, they really have been the drivers today.
Yeah, stopped outa my shorts lastnight before crashing....

The pricks!

heh.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #262,853
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:53pm Nov 2, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting cloggie
I got roughly the same play depending on 4038 and 4007, they really have been the drivers today.
O cloggie, if only I could come round your house and sit on your shoulder for a few weeks.

Thanks for all the guidance over the last few days it's good to have you back.
  • #262,854
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:53pm Nov 2, 2010 12:53pm
Quoting Magix
Yeah, stopped outa my shorts lastnight before crashing....

The pricks!

heh.

4038 is holding, she is not ready to come down yet.
  • #262,855
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:54pm Nov 2, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting Dayboy001
O cloggie, if only I could come round your house and sit on your shoulder for a few weeks.

Thanks for all the guidance over the last few days it's good to have you back.

Am trying to take the noise out for you and bring it right back to basics identifying the levels to keep an eye out for and drawing them on a piece of scratchpaper with the big moves within them will really simplify things. If you can find the 2-4 levels that are in play each day as I did this morning then the only thing left to do is find the direction and play of the levels.

IF you go back to yesterday's post you can see how roughly the same levels carried through, finding them first thing in the morning gives you the areas of interest, if you only find 2 30 pips apart that will give you the one good trade for the day and that's really the only thing you need to be succesful in this business.

For Cable 6021 is the afternoon's pivot and key for any move, just take the trades away from it either short or long for 20-30 pips, 4038 is the driver for the rest of the day on fibre.
  • #262,856
  • Nov 2, 2010 1:21pm Nov 2, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting cloggie
4038 is holding, she is not ready to come down yet.

Tentatively giving in, a good close on the 30 will set the way to 4007/4015. She is not going to give in easily and there will be some noise, but there is not a lot keeping it from 4007/4015.

Cable is still giving us plays of the 6038 and will wait for yooro to set the way.
  • #262,857
  • Nov 2, 2010 1:26pm Nov 2, 2010 1:26pm
Great info Cloggie, Thank you for sharing your knowledge ( I was ease dropping ). What is the correlation on the Fib at 50 and yesterdays support @ 6021. Will this reinforce that support line?


Quoting cloggie
Am trying to take the noise out for you and bring it right back to basics identifying the levels to keep an eye out for and drawing them on a piece of scratchpaper with the big moves within them will really simplify things. If you can find the 2-4 levels that are in play each day as I did this morning then the only thing left to do is find the direction and play of the levels.

IF you go back to yesterday's post you can see how roughly the same levels carried through, finding them first thing in the morning gives you the areas of interest, if you...
  • #262,858
  • Nov 2, 2010 1:27pm Nov 2, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting cloggie
Tentatively giving in, a good close on the 30 will set the way to 4007/4015. She is not going to give in easily and there will be some noise, but there is not a lot keeping it from 4007/4015.

Cable is still giving us plays of the 6038 and will wait for yooro to set the way.
That was just testing the 200EMA on 1m. Freshly painted ceiling, I think we might have to test resistance before we see more to the downside.

Caught a couple on short, holding nothing. Will see if I can take next trigger on the 1m/5m.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #262,859
  • Nov 2, 2010 1:28pm Nov 2, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Great info Cloggie, Thank you for sharing your knowledge ( I was ease dropping ). What is the correlation on the Fib at 50 and yesterdays support @ 6021. Will this reinforce that support line?

6021 is the pivot of the 6038-6006 range that has been in play all afternoon so yes that is what is keeping us up here, a good break on 4038 on fibre will nudge Cable along
  • #262,860
  • Nov 2, 2010 1:30pm Nov 2, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting Magix
That was just testing the 200EMA on 1m. Freshly painted ceiling, I think we might have to test resistance before we see more to the downside.

Caught a couple on short, holding nothing. Will see if I can take next trigger on the 1m/5m.
I am looking at the same thing from a level point of view, just trying to filter out the noise here, we could see quite a few test as SR's of 4038 for a while I am eyeballing the 15 for a good momentum bar to jump on down to 4007/4015.

With thin volumes this late in the day it will be a bit of a corkscrew ride down and will fake the retailers quite a bit.

I tried to do the same thing yesterday on the fibre thread but they were only interested in a few loudmouths trading for 1 pip scalps.
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