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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,781
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:33pm Oct 27, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting bialy
USDX rises, ... /very intresting situation, whithout suggestions!/
lest weeks USDX is very important for UJ
err ... i am not so bright .... are u saying UJ up or down ?
  • #20,782
  • Edited 1:12pm Oct 27, 2010 1:06pm | Edited 1:12pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
Quoting TheArcher
err ... i am not so bright .... are u saying UJ up or down ?
i was closed my short, and i i'm waiting for long on 80.50 /BOJ doesn't have experiance traders and everything can happend, i wrote EA for intervention and i don't wainting for it/ i'm scalping. USDX have an answer for manual trading
currently charts: USDX30,jp225H4,SP500H1
/triangles are drawed automatically NOT MANUALLY!!!/
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  • #20,783
  • Oct 27, 2010 2:13pm Oct 27, 2010 2:13pm
1st target 90 zone - very likely
2nd target 100 zone - likelihood not clear at this stage
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Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,784
  • Oct 27, 2010 3:37pm Oct 27, 2010 3:37pm
Quoting jsspmk
1st target 90 zone - very likely
2nd target 100 zone - likelihood not clear at this stage
Nice to see someone else using Ninja as well.

Well, UJ has risen a little. Finally, somebody heard my complaint. Let's see if it can break above 81.80 and stay there.

Fingers crossed.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #20,785
  • Edited 4:06pm Oct 27, 2010 4:03pm | Edited 4:06pm
I wouldn't get your hopes for a bull run up too much yet.....lot's of news coming in the next week or two that could have a huge effect....but....looking at the daily chart we can see can see 2 bull candles in a row....wow....that hasn't happened since mid August, and before that sometime in June. If we look at the weekly, we can see a doji followed by a bull candle. It's happened before, but this is certainly interesting. Whether or not this will be the beginning of the end of the bear run, I guess the news over the next couple of weeks (NFP, FOMC, QE2 etc) will tell.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,786
  • Oct 27, 2010 4:20pm Oct 27, 2010 4:20pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
looking for short /headging previous long/ USDX doesn't lie
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  • #20,787
  • Oct 27, 2010 4:56pm Oct 27, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting bialy
looking for short /headging previous long/ USDX doesn't lie
I really like your chart Bialy; Are you using Bolling Bands?

I am trading H4 on USD/JPY



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  • #20,788
  • Oct 27, 2010 5:08pm Oct 27, 2010 5:08pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
i'm no predicting direction for UJ. i want share my point of view with charts http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=20777, on daily USDX is moving down but... but now we have intresting "some consolidation". i'm posting charts without suggestions
PS: leoforex: my modifications of bollinger: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19171
  • #20,789
  • Oct 27, 2010 5:56pm Oct 27, 2010 5:56pm
Quoting realjumper
I wouldn't get your hopes for a bull run up too much yet.....lot's of news coming in the next week or two that could have a huge effect....but....looking at the daily chart we can see can see 2 bull candles in a row....wow....that hasn't happened since mid August, and before that sometime in June. If we look at the weekly, we can see a doji followed by a bull candle. It's happened before, but this is certainly interesting. Whether or not this will be the beginning of the end of the bear run, I guess the news over the next couple of weeks (NFP, FOMC,...

QE2 at levels suggested has been priced in, a few IMO worthy analysts suggest that news will be sold=USD up, if they stall=USD up more, if they announce smaller QE=USD up even more. At the moment it is all about debasing, so QE or not to QE will have the biggest impact. I believe that they will QE, but perhaps less rather than more the expected size.

Now back to that Monthly chart, the more I look at it the more it looks like 2008/09 1st bottom, 2009 2nd bottom, right now we are in a flush after a failure swing. Below 80 is Mr Kan turns into Mr Kan't, can he afford that to happen without trying to save his own ass? Nope, he kan't. Plus back to techicals, what is the nature of a flush? It is to wipe out hope of the faithful ones. Hope is the last one to die, after it is dead positions are closed as there are no more reasons to hold a position, right? Wrong! Why? Because flushes are not caused by some freak type shock events, well sometimes, but mostly they are caused by the manipulators or the wolfpack organized trading entities. It is also called spoofing and when it happens on a monthly chart's price action it is called being royaly shafted in the poop hole

Don't lose the faith. Yen is more shit than USD.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,790
  • Oct 27, 2010 6:29pm Oct 27, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting jsspmk
QE2 at levels suggested has been priced in, a few IMO worthy analysts suggest that news will be sold=USD up, if they stall=USD up more, if they announce smaller QE=USD up even more. At the moment it is all about debasing, so QE or not to QE will have the biggest impact. I believe that they will QE, but perhaps less rather than more the expected size.

Now back to that Monthly chart, the more I look at it the more it looks like 2008/09 1st bottom, 2009 2nd bottom, right now we are in a flush after a failure swing. Below 80 is Mr Kan turns into...
LOL......yes the Yen certainly is....it just doesn't know it yet! You're right, QE2 is priced in, but with Geithner and Bernanke speaking opposit speak, we don't know for sure whether too much or not enough is priced in.....hence the indecision in a few pairs.

Whatever happens, the next couple of weeks should be interesting.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,791
  • Oct 27, 2010 9:10pm Oct 27, 2010 9:10pm
range ?
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  • #20,792
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:10pm Oct 27, 2010 11:10pm
bearish channel breakout is seen. currently facing resistance @ 81.76
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  • #20,793
  • Oct 28, 2010 3:01am Oct 28, 2010 3:01am
ya, 2 weeks ago...
Quoting mima
it might drag like this till 11-3-10 ....
important levels 81.91 and 82.35 ...so far no changes...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,794
  • Oct 28, 2010 3:56am Oct 28, 2010 3:56am
Going short boys,

putting an SL at 82.54
Moving to Break Even tomorrow...

Any thoughts why this shouldn't turn in to profit?
  • #20,795
  • Oct 28, 2010 4:22am Oct 28, 2010 4:22am
Quoting Larseg
Going short boys,

putting an SL at 82.54
Moving to Break Even tomorrow...

Any thoughts why this shouldn't turn in to profit?
Wow....that's a big SL man...what are you aiming for?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,796
  • Oct 28, 2010 5:25am Oct 28, 2010 5:25am
Looking for a break through the red trend line but there is strong resistance at and around 81.50. Maybe a run back down to the the green trend line then a bounce.

USD/JPY M15
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  • #20,797
  • Oct 28, 2010 5:33am Oct 28, 2010 5:33am
Quoting fosking
Looking for a break through the red trend line but there is strong resistance at and around 81.50. Maybe a run back down to the the green trend line then a bounce.
I'm watching the same pattern too....in the event of a breakout north today, bear in mind that the daily pivot is at 81.63
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,798
  • Oct 28, 2010 5:39am Oct 28, 2010 5:39am
Quoting realjumper
bear in mind that the daily pivot is at 81.63
  • #20,799
  • Oct 28, 2010 6:11am Oct 28, 2010 6:11am
Quoting realjumper
Wow....that's a big SL man...what are you aiming for?
Hi RJ
Yes, this is a big position mate... So I don't like to put SL's where everyone else is...

The aim is below 80.00, SL to BE when around +100 pips

The only real reason is that reversal without touching 80.00 doesn't make sense... I also believe that too many are positioned long for this pair...

Interesting too see how it play's out

77.00 would be nice though
  • #20,800
  • Oct 28, 2010 6:15am Oct 28, 2010 6:15am
Quoting Larseg
Hi RJ
Yes, this is a big position mate... So I don't like to put SL's where everyone else is...

The aim is below 80.00, SL to BE when around +100 pips

The only real reason is that reversal without touching 80.00 doesn't make sense... I also believe that too many are positioned long for this pair...

Interesting too see how it play's out

77.00 would be nice though
Good luck man.....I understand your reasons, and I can't argue with that at all......I just can't bring myself to take a position either way (other than a very short term trade) until all this QE2, FOMC, NFP and other nonsense is out of the way. I hope it works out for you
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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