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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,761
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:10am Oct 27, 2010 10:10am
Quoting Forexia
Hmmmnnn... that's interesting. Why would exporters sell USD? Didn't they want a weaker Yen so their stuff can sell? Weren't they the one who pushed for an intervention back then?

UJ is getting weirder by the hour. Thanks for all the comments.

Good trading everyone!
Yeah - you are right. That'S exact the reason for the ongoing "devaluation war". But at the end of year there is also the tendency to "get your money home". If interested in that topic please google "repatriation flows":

Repatriation :The act of remitting cash flows from a foreign affiliate to the parent firm.

Cu,
MaMood
  • #20,762
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:11am Oct 27, 2010 10:11am
Quoting MaMood
Hi there,

have not posted here before.

2. We are getting closer to the end of year. Maybe the so called "repatriation flows" (return of sovereign invests to Japan, due to fiscal reasons) have started already. There is very often talk on the wires that the exporters are selling USD heavily ...

Just my 2 cent.

CU,
MaMood
Japanese fiscal year ends March 31st, I believe.
  • #20,763
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:13am Oct 27, 2010 10:13am
Quoting pqt
I agree with your 2nd point but not the first: Usd/chf IS ANYTHING BUT TRENDLESS!

Oh sorry - of course you are right!

I have only EUR,USD and JPY in my very personal definition of "majors"
  • #20,764
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:15am Oct 27, 2010 10:15am
Quoting Forexgogo
Wall Street's report about QE2 put a little impact on the market yesterday. I think UJ went up because of this (nothing like GC though).

The report says QE2 might be a lot smaller than expected (not a trillion, but billion).

I'm wondering where UJ and other pairs go this week (and after 11/3). I think the down-trend would come back and UJ would go down to 80-81 again. Then, after 11/3, UJ might gradually go up to 85.00, but not 88. This is because I assume USD can still dwindle a bit more until unemployment improves.

What your thoughts?...
Yes, pure rumours and speculation are driving USD here, in addition to some's oversold sentiment. On QE and the remainder of the stuff you mention, it amounts to pure guesswork and speculation. So, not only is there the size, but the bigger unknown IMO is if it's decided that the QE is built in to stocks - I mean, they've been driving up on minimal volume and participation since June - that goes against all laws of supply and demend, that in the end, will prevail. Much of the USD's movement is about the same science as throwing darts. If one can get in on a UJ ride, go for it - I bank about every 30-40 pips and look for reloads. (Although I am decidedly short euro and sterling)

Problem is, most big boys are in the same "don't know" category. Smart Money though has themselves covered either way, and probably has a plan more complicated than most of us can understand or afford to maintain - to them a few hundred pips this way or that way is no big deal.

For another dart thrower's views, err, strategist, check Marc Faber; I personally think it will unfold about this way.
  • #20,765
  • Edited 10:48am Oct 27, 2010 10:15am | Edited 10:48am
Hi every body
This is also my first post here
What I think of this pair is there should be a visit to the 79.79 area before any meaningful rally starts, this will be depending on the action taken by BOJ when the pair reaches that level
This view should be eliminated if and only if this week/month closes above 82.25
I will be buying aggressively starting from 80.05 for the spread to be taken into consideration
For now I am short from 81.90 with stop as I mentioned above
  • #20,766
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:17am Oct 27, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Forexgogo
Japanese fiscal year ends March 31st, I believe.

uuups - yeah you are right.
So please forget about my 2 cents ...
Sorry
  • #20,767
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:34am Oct 27, 2010 10:34am
Beside the repatriation factor in UJ selling, exporters could also sell UJ as a "hedge" for their profits. It works this way: As the dollar drops in value, it takes a whole lot more $ to buy Yen, which means their profits when converted from USD to JPY would actually DROP. So to hedge against this "loss", the exporters would sell dollar on the exchange so that the profits they make there will balance out their other losses. It may sound contradictory to their whining about a strong Yen, but at the end of the day, it's the bottom line that counts!
  • #20,768
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:49am Oct 27, 2010 10:49am
Quoting Beljevina
Yes, pure rumours and speculation are driving USD here, in addition to some's oversold sentiment. On QE and the remainder of the stuff you mention, it amounts to pure guesswork and speculation. So, not only is there the size, but the bigger unknown IMO is if it's decided that the QE is built in to stocks - I mean, they've been driving up on minimal volume and participation since June - that goes against all laws of supply and demend, that in the end, will prevail. Much of the USD's movement is about the same science as throwing darts. If one can...
Thank you very much for your insight. It is very interesting to read.

Do you think that JP gov knows the detailed US QE2 plan? If this is the case, JP gov's weirdness makes sense to some extent -- (probably JP knows they don't have to intervene?)

just my two cent
  • #20,769
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:55am Oct 27, 2010 10:55am
Quoting Forexia
1 thing I like to know is: Why is all UJ not going up when clearly all the other USD pairs are shooting up? Who's holding JPY back and why? It's not even at 80.81 level
just some fun crazy cheeky line :

maybe it is China that is holding it up ! US and Europe have hollowed out ... they are directionless ....they are weak .... so why trust their currencies ? ... better support our Asian giant neighbour , never mind if they blur themselves , and let's prop it up and park our money in JPY ...

don't ask me if there is any logic in it ... its just some cheeky line ...

cheeky
  • #20,770
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:56am Oct 27, 2010 10:56am
Quoting pqt
Beside the repatriation factor in UJ selling, exporters could also sell UJ as a "hedge" for their profits. It works this way: As the dollar drops in value, it takes a whole lot more $ to buy Yen, which means their profits when converted from USD to JPY would actually DROP. So to hedge against this "loss", the exporters would sell dollar on the exchange so that the profits they make there will balance out their other losses. It may sound contradictory to their whining about a strong Yen, but at the
end of the day, it's the bottom line that counts!...
To hedge against a drop in UJ value to protect profit, wouldn't you buy USD instead? Why go the roundabout way to protect your profits to buy UJ and then sell UJ? Even it's for repatriation purposes, it makes even less sense to sell USD because like what you said, profits in USD would decrease with a drop in value of USD when it's converted back to YEN.

So for either hedging or repatriation purposes besides export profitability, it calls for a weaker YEN. I really don't get why UJ keeps dropping.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #20,771
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:01am Oct 27, 2010 11:01am
Quoting TheArcher
just some fun crazy cheeky line :

maybe it is China that is holding it up ! US and Europe have hollowed out ... they are directionless .... so why trust their currencies ...better support our Asian giant neighbour , never mind if they blur themselves , and lets prop it up and park our money in JPY ...

don't ask me if there is any logic in it ... its just some cheeky line ...

cheeky
LOL That would make sense. China and Japan are at a territorial dispute right now over an island that's Chinese territory but loaned to Japan with rental payments. Now that Japan has paid so many years of rental payments, it thinks the island is theirs. So this is war tactic?

That's funny :-)
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #20,772
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:18am Oct 27, 2010 11:18am
Quoting Forexia
To hedge against a drop in UJ value to protect profit, wouldn't you buy USD instead? Why go the roundabout way to protect your profits to buy UJ and then sell UJ? Even it's for repatriation purposes, it makes even less sense to sell USD because like what you said, profits in USD would decrease with a drop in value of USD when it's converted back to YEN.

So for either hedging or repatriation purposes besides export profitability, it calls for a weaker YEN. I really don't get why UJ keeps dropping.
Exporters cannot park their money indefinitely in foreign countries. At some point, they have to convert some of it back to home currencies and bring it home so governments can get their take (surprise!)
As to why they don't buy USD instead, it's a matter of balance of power and path of least resitance. Exporters are not in the business of trading forex, they are not there to fight the other big guys and try to reverse the trend (that's the government job via intervention). What they want to do is only to recoup or stem their losses, and the hedging allows them to do that.
  • #20,773
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:21am Oct 27, 2010 11:21am
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
no suggestions, only charts with my point of view - i'm -150pips in current long position, but i'm scalping in two directions, and i don't know direction. but BOJ lost his chance for good intervention /just my opinion comment ont the chart//. SP500 & JP225 /contracts from admiral markets/, triangles drawed automatically /PM for templates/. i'll hope this help
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  • #20,774
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:21am Oct 27, 2010 11:21am
Quoting Forexia
LOL That would make sense. China and Japan are at a territorial dispute right now over an island that's Chinese territory but loaned to Japan with rental payments. Now that Japan has paid so many years of rental payments, it thinks the island is theirs. So this is war tactic?

That's funny :-)
sabre rattling makes good for politics ... that the politicians are working for their own people ...without which the world will be a dull place to live in .... keeps the masses distracted .... while they(govts) work on silently on other things ....LOL !!!
  • #20,775
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:21am Oct 27, 2010 11:21am
Quoting TheArcher
just some fun crazy cheeky line :

maybe it is China that is holding it up ! US and Europe have hollowed out ... they are directionless ....they are weak .... so why trust their currencies ? ... better support our Asian giant neighbour , never mind if they blur themselves , and let's prop it up and park our money in JPY ...

don't ask me if there is any logic in it ... its just some cheeky line ...

cheeky
It's not a joke. It's a fact that China had been buying Yen (and Euro)
  • #20,776
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:35am Oct 27, 2010 11:35am
Quoting pqt
It's not a joke. It's a fact that China had been buying Yen (and Euro)
yes I know . just injecting the fact humorously .
  • #20,777
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:41am Oct 27, 2010 11:41am
Quoting bialy
no suggestions, only charts with my point of view - i'm -150pips in current long position, but i'm scalping in two directions, and i don't know direction. but BOJ lost his chance for good intervention /just my opinion comment ont the chart//. SP500 & JP225 /contracts from admiral markets/, triangles drawed automatically /PM for templates/. i'll hope this help
hi ! welcome !

err ... sure u were not on alcohol while posting the charts ?... just kidding .. cheeky (ur tagline :forex makes me alcoholic )

i am a bit dizzy of what u are trying to saying and what ur charts are saying ... care to simplify ur thoughts ...?

thanks .

( just kidding .. no offence intented ... just to get a clear understanding of what u r trying to share )
  • #20,778
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:59am Oct 27, 2010 11:59am
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
[quote=TheArcher;4127220]hi ! welcome !

err ... sure u were not on alcohol while posting the charts ?... just kidding .. cheeky

you're right, i'm drunk, but UDXchart is in my head. but after last FOMC USD rules the world /now QE2/ and i'm using it. i was post my charts, and i'll hope this help someone /no suggestions/. i'm looking and trying make some pips. /in my opinion we have interesting situation on USDX/
  • #20,779
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:11pm Oct 27, 2010 12:11pm
2 scenarios :

1) amatuer elliot wave analysis ... does it mean anything .. will it drop ?

or

2) is the entire 12345 is wave 1 and abc is wave 2 ... we can anticipate a larger wave 3 up ? .... just speculating ... can share any thoughts on this ..?

----------------

(kindly bear with the chart mess ... still trying out uploading from Paintbrush )
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  • #20,780
  • Edited 12:25pm Oct 27, 2010 12:23pm | Edited 12:25pm
  •  bialy
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: forex makes me alcoholic :) | 42 Posts
[quote=TheArcher;4127301]2 scenarios :

1) amatuer elliot wave analysis ... does it mean anything .. will it drop ?

or

2) is the entire 12345 is wave 1 and abc is wave 2 ... we can anticipate a larger wave 3 up ? .... just speculating ... can share any thoughts on this ..?

USDX rises, ... /very intresting situation, whithout suggestions!/
lest weeks USDX is very important for UJ
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