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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #261,941
  • Oct 26, 2010 8:48pm Oct 26, 2010 8:48pm
sorry what TF u work at, bro ?

what about this : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=847

Rgds,iqyu
Quoting Lejumeau
1.5860 is giving quite resistance hmm.. not so sure anymore it will break it.
not euphoria follower
  • #261,942
  • Oct 26, 2010 8:58pm Oct 26, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting Lejumeau
still in the game..
Currently thwarting with wanting to go down, which is understandable...

EU is crushing down southside, if we see USD strength, GBP could likely fall as well.

Circle indicates hulls long on a 15m chart, if we move below Green line (daily open), I see 2 support zones below.

Support 1, fib 50.
Support 2, 200EMA 15m.

IF we clear the hulls long on 15m, will watch for resistance near top of the day.

Best guess.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #261,943
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:11pm Oct 26, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting Magix
Currently thwarting with wanting to go down, which is understandable...

EU is crushing down southside, if we see USD strength, GBP could likely fall as well.

Circle indicates hulls long on a 15m chart, if we move below Green line (daily open), I see 2 support zones below.

Support 1, fib 50.
Support 2, 200EMA 15m.

IF we clear the hulls long on 15m, will watch for resistance near top of the day.

Best guess.
My best guess is that little dust up took a bit out of a few accts lol
  • #261,944
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:11pm Oct 26, 2010 9:11pm
I keep my long for the london sessions.

look to me more bulish since after all this volatility seller was not able to push it down.

see ya tomorrow ..
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  • #261,945
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:13pm Oct 26, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting digger1
My best guess is that little dust up took a bit out of a few accts lol
Ima betting yer prolly right.

Closed my short hedges on dragon before roll over, didn't see getting much outa that, glad I took what I got...

Been sitting flat since roll, busy doing shit, missed all the action.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #261,946
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:16pm Oct 26, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting Magix
Ima betting yer prolly right.

Closed my short hedges on dragon before roll over, didn't see getting much outa that, glad I took what I got...

Been sitting flat since roll, busy doing shit, missed all the action.
lol, hey dragon made it my weekly H4 level finally
  • #261,947
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:16pm Oct 26, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting NoahEffect
Hi guys,

New member to the forum here, hope to contribute my thoughts to this thread.

...

Regarding todays chart, I have placed a sell stop order with my broker to short a few bids around 1.5640 (~10 pips below the 20th Oct 1.5650 low). Stoploss on the 20th Oct high if the order is filled. Have added a few notes to the chart for discussion.
Attachment
Hi guys I'm back for my second post!

Seems the early market rumours about the UK GDP figures coming out better than expectations turned out to be true which drove the pair significantly higher overnight. A classic "Noah Effect" event! (http://financial-dictionary.thefreed...om/Noah+Effect)

I am game to go with the new flow and take an at market long here before the Tokyo boys head off to get their sushi, 1.5860 with a stop-loss 1.5680 to see the price move away from its fresh consolidation in an upwards impulse.

The original sell stop is still in place, which now makes the 1.5640-5680 zone a "stop and reverse" area for me.
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  • #261,948
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:52pm Oct 26, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting NoahEffect
Hi guys I'm back for my second post!

Seems the early market rumours about the UK GDP figures coming out better than expectations turned out to be true which drove the pair significantly higher overnight. A classic "Noah Effect" event! (http://financial-dictionary.thefreed...om/Noah+Effect)

The original sell stop is still in place, which now makes the 1.5640-5680 zone a "stop and reverse" area for me.
Attachment
LOL

The Noah Effect...
The tendency of persistent time series (0.50<H<1.00) to have abrupt, and discontinuous changes. The normal distribution assumes continuous changes in a system. However, a time series which exhibits Hurst statistics may abruptly change levels, skipping values either up or down. Mandelbrot coined the term "Noah effect" after the biblical story of the deluge.

Welcome to forex dude.
This ain't the Noah effect, its the market.

Wear a helmet when you trade.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #261,949
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:58pm Oct 26, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting Magix
LOL

The Noah Effect...
The tendency of persistent time series (0.50<H<1.00) to have abrupt, and discontinuous changes. The normal distribution assumes continuous changes in a system. However, a time series which exhibits Hurst statistics may abruptly change levels, skipping values either up or down. Mandelbrot coined the term "Noah effect" after the biblical story of the deluge.

Welcome to forex dude.
This ain't the Noah effect, its the market.

Wear a helmet when you trade.

Unfortunately true. Doesn't make it any less dodgy though
  • #261,950
  • Edited 11:34pm Oct 26, 2010 11:14pm | Edited 11:34pm
Quoting Magix
LOL

The Noah Effect...
The tendency of persistent time series (0.50<H<1.00) to have abrupt, and discontinuous changes. The normal distribution assumes continuous changes in a system. However, a time series which exhibits Hurst statistics may abruptly change levels, skipping values either up or down. Mandelbrot coined the term "Noah effect" after the biblical story of the deluge.

Welcome to forex dude.
This ain't the Noah effect, its the market.

Wear a helmet when you trade.

Hi Magix,

A strange welcome to the forums, I am certainly no stranger to the forex itself.

Perhaps you are not aware of Mandelbrot and his analysis of financial markets which have since been vindicated many times over by other researchers including the likes of his protege Nassim Taleb? Of course "it's the market", as you say, but there is nothing new or special in the idea of treating "the market" as a chaotic system since Mandelbrot, and I have found most tradeable swings in forex are Noah Effect type events (i.e. this is when the timeseries exhibits Hurst statistics)! If you have seen the order book for any futures market or even a forex ECN, "abrupt and discontinuous changes" is a very good description for the order flow as volume (new money) arrives in the market.

Certainly last nights price action was no skin off my back, my sell stop was not filled (price didn't even break the previous days low) and I spent the night productively going through some numbers and releases by the BoE.

My helmet comes in the form of trading a contract with leverage to provide max 10% notional risk on my balance (i.e. usually I am trading about 100,000 size but my broker provides very granular sizing), using stoploss generally the actual average risk to account is 0.25% per trade (obviously in this case higher). Not all are winners, but more than enough are, plenty net > 5% return within a trading quarter. I also have access to various hedging mechanisms if required in fat tail events but generally if liquidity is there in these scenarios I will actually try to trade that flow.

EDIT: My trading goal is to have returns on my money beating real Australian inflation by 2% YoY. Returns have been much greater than that since 2008 started.
  • #261,951
  • Oct 26, 2010 11:31pm Oct 26, 2010 11:31pm
Quoting Eulogy
Unfortunately true. Doesn't make it any less dodgy though
LOL....

Took a few minutes to study the pitchfork and thought I would throw one down...

Found support on the M30 slow hulls for current, pitchfork drawn showing midpoint retrace back to daily open...which actually makes sense. Kewl shit!

Just cuz IMA chart dork and have no life...watched the video from the link that dude posted earlier...check it out here.

(Not specifically meant for you Eulogy, just figured instead of spamming the thread with 2 posts, I would consolidate)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #261,952
  • Oct 26, 2010 11:46pm Oct 26, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting Magix
LOL....

Took a few minutes to study the pitchfork and thought I would throw one down...

Found support on the M30 slow hulls for current, pitchfork drawn showing midpoint retrace back to daily open...which actually makes sense. Kewl shit!

Just cuz IMA chart dork and have no life...watched the video from the link that dude posted earlier...check it out here.

[i](Not specifically meant for you Eulogy, just figured instead of spamming the thread with 2 posts, I would...
The analysis takes the assumption that Cable is currently in a flag formation and that a continuation will occur. The main thing i don't like about the pitchfork is that its so open to 'multidirectional drawing bias'. Its just as likely the indi could use the 3 consecutive points - (1.5895, 1.5805, 1.5865) as the base and show a downward facing pitchfork. Just a thought....
  • #261,953
  • Oct 26, 2010 11:54pm Oct 26, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting Eulogy
The analysis takes the assumption that Cable is currently in a flag formation and that a continuation will occur. The main thing i don't like about the pitchfork is that its so open to 'multidirectional drawing bias'. Its just as likely the indi could use the 3 consecutive points - (1.5895, 1.5805, 1.5865) as the base and show a downward facing pitchfork. Just a thought....
I watched a YouTube video, and now I know everything!

LOL.

I have studied the pitchfork in past(never understood it, but have a little better handle now), and much like the zigzag indicator, it can be as true trade as a coin toss order...No, I will not leave my money in the hands of any one idea, but figured since it made sense, and since I noticed it, figured I might add the idea. Really, why the eff not?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #261,954
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:21am Oct 27, 2010 12:21am
Good morning folks

Hopefully all of the 'last nighters' had a good trading session with lots of 'green pips profits'.........

Today looks like it's going to bee another up and down and side too side one

With lots of profit for all who follow the price where ever she goes.

Managed to get a quick +9 pips on the Frankfurt Open, as I'm now used to being up early in the morning. Haven't even finished my first cuppa tea yet, maybe the next one will have some extra 'HONEY' in it
  • #261,955
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:24am Oct 27, 2010 12:24am
Quoting NoahEffect

I also have access to various hedging mechanisms if required in fat tail events but generally if liquidity is there in these scenarios I will actually try to trade that flow
Please tell us more.
Although hedging seems to be frowned upon here, it surely beats the certainty of money lost when using stop losses.
  • #261,956
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:35am Oct 27, 2010 12:35am
Quoting ikdenk
Please tell us more.
Although hedging seems to be frowned upon here, it surely beats the certainty of money lost when using stop losses.
Hi ikdenk,

The most common and cheapest hedge is in the form of an OTC fx option contract. Usually you have to call up a big broker to buy one, in my case it's one of the big 4 Australian banks, or offices of Goldman Sachs or Citibank in Aus.

For example, during the beginning rally in 2009, I was not convinced we wouldn't just blow out again anyday but didn't want to exit any of my low risk long entries either so I called up and hedged about 100,000 notional 6 months out with a put contract at my avg long price (and by this time, big brokers who were aware of the incoming rally were happy to sell puts to customers or match them against other customers). This allowed me to sleep easier, as I was still on the trend but if there was some massive overnight move down on low liquidity my current profits would remain unaffected. The end cost of this downside insurance was approx 20% of total profits on these hedged entries when I unwound the hedge on option expiry at the end of June 2009.
  • #261,957
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:39am Oct 27, 2010 12:39am
Quoting NoahEffect
Hi ikdenk,

The most common and cheapest hedge is in the form of an OTC fx option contract. Usually you have to call up a big broker to buy one, in my case it's one of the big 4 Australian banks, or offices of Goldman Sachs or Citibank in Aus.

For example, during the beginning rally in 2009, I was not convinced we wouldn't just blow out again anyday but didn't want to exit any of my low risk long entries either so I called up and hedged about 100,000 notional 6 months out with a put contract at my avg long price (and by this time, big brokers...
Thanks for your quick response, but I meant intraday hedging: taking an opposite position when price moves against you (temporarily!).
  • #261,958
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:44am Oct 27, 2010 12:44am
Quoting NoahEffect
Hi Magix,
Perhaps you are not aware of Mandelbrot and his analysis of financial markets which have since been vindicated many times over by other researchers including the likes of his protege Nassim Taleb? Of course "it's the market", as you say, but there is nothing new or special in the idea of treating "the market" as a chaotic system since Mandelbrot, and I have found most tradeable swings in forex are Noah Effect type events (i.e. this is when the timeseries exhibits Hurst statistics)! If you have seen the order book for...
No offense meant mango, I was amused by how many words it took you to say nothing.

Chaotic system? Implications of it being somewhat random?

Not even close.

When it moves, it is just a matter of which direction, when and where. Throughout my days of studying charts, price action, indicators and trading systems I have come to know a lot. I spent a grand number of days in the penny markets, learning action at a day traders pace, joining forex was a dream. 24hr trading, mass of indicators and charting that is/was simply unheard of when I started in this game, action that follows a systematic pattern and play style.

I have posted several charts, and supports and targets to show that this market is anything but chaotic. Sure there are times that its a pretty good idea to just not be in a trade, (the 3rd true position, no trade), but when it makes a move, do you really need a book to tell you that it does so by specific terminology?

Dunno man. To each his own.

Congrats on your successes, and in all seriousness...Welcome to the Asylum!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #261,959
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:46am Oct 27, 2010 12:46am
Quoting ikdenk
Thanks for your quick response, but I meant intraday hedging: taking an opposite position when price moves against you (temporarily!).
Hi ikdenk, I have no idea how that works at all, nor why you would do it.

Intraday trading involves cutting your losses ASAP with an eye to keeping costs (spreads, commissions) as low as possible. If you take one position intraday and then take the opposite position intraday at some other price, you have effectively closed out the position by paying extra commission and spread to your broker!

Seems like it would be more cost effective to simply close out the contract at the spot where you would try to execute this "intraday hedging technique" you mention, and then re-establish the position at the spot you would unwind the hedge?

Intraday is about probability setups. If it fails, FINE, chalk up a loss and move onto the next setup!
  • #261,960
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:54am Oct 27, 2010 12:54am
I'm going short. Start making the way down to 5350 area. will take a while to get there thoough
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