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  • #312,561
  • Oct 22, 2010 9:53pm Oct 22, 2010 9:53pm
I just saw I was blocked in TheLastCoke's thread so I'll post my reply here. Hehe, it may be my last post on ForexFactory.

OK, I don't remember you using the word crash, just wanted to say some of the charts you showed at least implied the price was heading south. Well, to be fair, it does look like you're pointing out from an objective point of view what you are seeing. And, looking at these charts again, you can see those scenarios may have played out the way it seems the price was going to head.
I have the impression though even though I can't find all the charts I thought I saw before that had you shown charts showing things like trendline bounces where people could have participated in the trend rather than having the impression the price is changing directions it would have allowed people to do trend following rather than anticipating a change in direction.
I'll give you examples of the Euro.
Here, you showed a chart indicating the price may head south:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2332
Here, you showed a chart where you were undecided:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2352
Here, you were indicating a possible short position:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2385
Here, you showed one long entry on the Euro (also stops are discussed):
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2407
This one was somewhat neutral (I have to admit I think I may have assumed this was implying a short but you said nothing really):
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2452
There was no comment here again:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2460
There was no comment again here (even though this one could have been seen as an indication to go long):
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2519
Here, similar to the last one:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2548
OK, here you indicated you were long:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2549
A recap here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2567
A post here, difficult to tell what it's implying:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2588
Clueless to what this is saying:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2600
Still clueless:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2635
Not sure:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2683
Seems to be implying a long here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2693
Seems to be implying a possible short:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2750
Looking bearish:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2911
Same here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2939
Again:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2970
Ditto:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2973
Ditto:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2993
Bearish long term here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2995
Implying short again:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3013
Profit target here clearly shows a short:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3050
Same:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3057
Another one:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3073
Here again:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3094
Ah, I give up trying to find the situations I saw. I remember it was around the time TheLastCoke showed a diamond top on the Euro and this was the time that the Euro was simply making consolidation phases instead of making real retracements before heading higher again. So, the Euro ended up going flat right out of the diamond instead of doing a real breakout then resumed its uptrend.
So, yeah, like a poster here said, it may be good if you can decide for yourself which setups will work and which ones to fade. TheLastCoke makes excellent charts. I just wanted to make my point that having a directional bias may help. I'm not implying you could always do this correctly though. (Excuse the long, confusing sentences. heheh)
I'm still not happy they won't allow you to change your username when it's been chosen quickly with an odd one.
  • #312,562
  • Oct 22, 2010 10:35pm Oct 22, 2010 10:35pm
http://granitegrok.com/pix/dead_money.jpg
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #312,563
  • Oct 23, 2010 2:28am Oct 23, 2010 2:28am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-geithner.html

“The status quo, whereby countries manage a dollar decline as best fits their circumstances as long as they don’t deliberately strengthen the dollar, will probably persist for lack of a better option,” said London-based Normand in a research report yesterday.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #312,564
  • Oct 23, 2010 2:33am Oct 23, 2010 2:33am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-geithner.html

“The status quo, whereby countries manage a dollar decline as best fits their circumstances as long as they don’t deliberately strengthen the dollar, will probably persist for lack of a better option,” said London-based Normand in a research report yesterday.

And the solution.... wait for it..... wait..... waaaait....

Sleeping pills and laxatives ! tadaa!
  • #312,565
  • Oct 23, 2010 3:02am Oct 23, 2010 3:02am
Quoting clambill
7I have the impression though even though I can't find all the charts I thought I saw before that had you shown charts showing things like trendline bounces where people could have participated in the trend rather than having the impression the price is changing directions it would have allowed people to do trend following rather than anticipating a change in direction.

(Excuse the long, confusing sentences. heheh)
I don't know if it's my place to comment and ya the long sentences were confusing... BUT, in bold! is the problem! If I interpreted that correctly you took his advice and it didn't work out. All his posts seem to be opinions with his reasoning, but he was giving no indication whether to take the trades or not.

Rule #1 trade on your own informed decisions only.

If that wasn't what the post was about then my b, carry on! haha
  • #312,566
  • Edited 4:16am Oct 23, 2010 3:24am | Edited 4:16am
Morning all . just checking charts again , yes all the same as before so far.
weekly expecting eu down for correction & usdx up but no trend change so soon or few weeks perhaps .usdx not down as expected & eu up too that is no end of C wave apparently & roughly from higher tf.

check usdchf and usdlpy also . usdchf little early start the corection & more suseptible to react with dollar changes & less susseptible usdjpy just preparing for correction all before bear continue with usdx all together or usdchf may indicate little early ,will have to check before that .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #312,567
  • Edited 4:30am Oct 23, 2010 4:08am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting Larseg
So annoying, been in profit all week (12%) and trading in the chop for 2 hours yesterday took away 4%

and that is not the worst...

The problem is; that I would made money at any other time than between 10-12 NY time


Annoying when you can take the early week-end on Thursday and save money ... But that's the game...

Here's some first aid for traders in the same boat
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/ma...010-09-07.html
I can totally relate man, was about 70 pips up within first hour of London trading, should have cut & run...

Great article, I think I need to dig out my Mark Douglas DVDs this weekend...
  • #312,568
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:18am Oct 23, 2010 5:18am
Quoting FibbinArchie
I can totally relate man, was about 70 pips up within first hour of London trading, should have cut & run...

Great article, I think I need to dig out my Mark Douglas DVDs this weekend...

Yes, really annoying... Always good to regurgitate some old stuff
  • #312,569
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:22am Oct 23, 2010 5:22am
Hello everybody,

I have just updated both short term and mid term count of EURUSD on my blog.

If you are interested to see the pics, have a look at my signature.


Sorry, I am in a hurry. More later.......


Wish you all a very nice weekend.


Markus
  • #312,570
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:30am Oct 23, 2010 5:30am
Quoting Larseg
Yes, really annoying... Always good to regurgitate some old stuff
This is the best part of it as I tend to do the exactly same thing:
"I have listed a maximum dollar amount I can comfortably lose on any given trading day. Once I hit this level (and yes after 23 years of trading, I still have losing days), my plan calls for me to shut down my computer and leave the office regardless of the time of day or market environment. …Trying to work out issues while we are still trading is a recipe for disaster. After I get stopped out for the day and I leave my office as my plan calls for, I will reward myself with a nice dinner that evening. Always reward yourself for following your plan."

Psychology matters a lot. But since i have been making money from technical analysis and earlier in news trading ( I will make a special thread about news trading or maybe I will post here for a reference), i'd say that psychology matters as long as u stick to your trading plan.
  • #312,571
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:33am Oct 23, 2010 5:33am
Quoting FibbinArchie
I can totally relate man, was about 70 pips up within first hour of London trading, should have cut & run...

Great article, I think I need to dig out my Mark Douglas DVDs this weekend...


I had the same... was up om profit... i knew i shouldn't have traded during the G20 meeting and i violated one of the major rules by placing trades against the trend... At least we get to live to trade another day.. GL for next week...

If the H1 H&S gets validated thats 200 pips down but I plan to buy dips for scalps next week...
  • #312,572
  • Oct 23, 2010 5:47am Oct 23, 2010 5:47am
Quoting DKallDAY
I don't know if it's my place to comment and ya the long sentences were confusing... BUT, in bold! is the problem! If I interpreted that correctly you took his advice and it didn't work out. All his posts seem to be opinions with his reasoning, but he was giving no indication whether to take the trades or not.

Rule #1 trade on your own informed decisions only.

If that wasn't what the post was about then my b, carry on! haha
Yeah, screwed up the sentence. I meant to say TheLastCoke' charts are good in general. What I'm trying to say is if people considered TREND FOLLOWING setups rather than CONTRARIAN setups then maybe they'd increase their probabilities.

I just got the impression that TheLastCoke almost sees prices like a ping pong ball bouncing back and forth. When prices bounce back and forth between two support or resistance levels or trendlines, it MAY work to trade both directions. However, when a price takes off in one direction and you keep on trying to fade that trend, you can keep getting stopped out. It's just my own opinion that he posts more contrarian setups than trend following setups. I'm just making an observation. However, this IS the Forex markets. And prices in Forex are more often in a trend than a trading range.

Anywhooo, I've said before that I don't agree with this site's policy that you cannot change and oddly chosen username. I may not bother posting againg. Cheers and good luck to all those trying to become profitable traders.
  • #312,573
  • Oct 23, 2010 6:51am Oct 23, 2010 6:51am
Quoting Larseg
Yes, really annoying... Always good to regurgitate some old stuff
You can never hear it enough, especially if discipline slips from time to time...
  • #312,574
  • Oct 23, 2010 7:26am Oct 23, 2010 7:26am
Quoting T@rantula
.....(and yes after 23 years of trading, I still have losing days)......
lol

Quoting T@rantula
I never trade on Fridays, but when I woke up today I forgot it was Friday.
Mate
Where is your head? Definitely not on your shoulders but somewhere else
  • #312,575
  • Oct 23, 2010 7:26am Oct 23, 2010 7:26am
Posted on forexlive.com...

Let’s gaze into our crystal ball for a moment. It’s Monday morning in Sydney: The G20 has passed with nothing approaching a framework on exchange rates/current account gaps. What’s EUR/USD gonna do?
My guess is we rally right out of the gate as traders put back on short dollar positions on the status-quo being maintained.
What happens next is really the key. If we stall again in the 1.4000/50 level than I would guess we are in a for another round of profit-taking early in the week.
Keep an eye on gold as well. A sustained move back above the $1350 level could fuel more dollar sales. A failure would argue for more profit-taking there as well.
  • #312,576
  • Oct 23, 2010 8:08am Oct 23, 2010 8:08am
Quoting Larseg
So annoying, been in profit all week (12%) and trading in the chop for 2 hours yesterday took away 4%

and that is not the worst...

The problem is; that I would made money at any other time than between 10-12 NY time


Annoying when you can take the early week-end on Thursday and save money ... But that's the game...

Here's some first aid for traders in the same boat
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/ma...010-09-07.html
Did the exact same thing near long close made lots of pips all day knowing 1.3900 had strong support kept adding longs and taking profits on up moves.
The last scaled in position was at about 1.3910.
Price moved to 1.3900 again it was heavily defended.
I was confident as it was proving to repeat what had happened all day ,so i watch then horror struck it pushed through 1.3900.
I thought to myself the order defending 1.3900 must have now closed at london session ,it dropped to 1.3890, so exit with big loss taking the days profits and some more.

What added to my gut wrenching sick feeling, was that immediately upon my exit .Price not only turned round But came back past my average entry and into 20 pips immediate profit then continued to rise to the close.
I felt all day buyers were strong but when 1.3900 broke i got out .

I was sick as a pig.

Could you tell me the authors and book titles for psychology.

And also a good hairdresser, to cover up the bald patches on my head, that are a result of me pulling my hair out lol.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #312,577
  • Oct 23, 2010 8:12am Oct 23, 2010 8:12am
Not sure where the Eur or the Usd will go but one thing is sure...

The rent is too damn high


Jimmy for President !!!

Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #312,578
  • Oct 23, 2010 8:18am Oct 23, 2010 8:18am
Quoting ch0c0b4d
Hi,, Is it the same or you have the new development for this indicator...
http://i56.tinypic.com/szwdqc.jpg

Thanks

ch0c0b4d
No, the one you attached to your posting seems to only shift the price x bars into the future, it does not do any interesting calculations. The one I used is fitting an AR model with hundreds of coefficients (heavy number crunching) to the historic price and trying to predict from that.

But this does not mean that it will be any more precise or there will be any more (or any at all) similarity between prediction and actual future. *sometimes* it seems to give hints for the timing in ranging markets but I have also seen it fail miserably and price doing the exact opposite. This is not the holy grail.
  • #312,579
  • Edited 8:38am Oct 23, 2010 8:18am | Edited 8:38am
Need a decisive BO one way or t'other...

Pls no more of this rangey, choppy crap...

970 looking good for a short entry...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Triangle.jpg Size: 212 KB
  • #312,580
  • Oct 23, 2010 8:26am Oct 23, 2010 8:26am
Quoting paul1
Did the exact same thing near long close made lots of pips all day knowing 1.3900 had strong support kept adding longs and taking profits on up moves.
The last scaled in position was at about 1.3910.
Price moved to 1.3900 again it was heavily defended.
I was confident as it was proving to repeat what had happened all day ,so i watch then horror struck it pushed through 1.3900.
I thought to myself the order defending 1.3900 must have now closed at london session ,it dropped to 1.3890, so exit with big loss taking the days profits and some more....
Sir, The ONLY solution for this Madness is Never put STOPLOSS!! I never put SL, period!! I trade only one trade per 1000 dollars in balance . Currently I am in two eur/usd and one trade in Gbp?usd. Eur short and gdp long, come what may!! Que sara sara.
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