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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #261,381
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:54am Oct 21, 2010 2:54am
Quoting Beljevina
Significant rejection on that orange UTL - sellers were waiting there. No breakout to the upside. Now that we test a LTL, buyers are there as expected, but I don't expect enough. We should dip to 1.5737 at least, and then we have news. If the latter breaks, then even 1.57 is next. Beyond that 1.5670, 1.5625. Note that sterling is in much weaker shape than the euro.
hey Bel!

Here's what I'm looking at.

The 50% pullback of the move down stopped on the dime 15874,
and the move down to test the Monthly Open area prior resistance as support is logical. So all we've done thus far is establish a potential range.

Looking at the 2 last Daily candles, it could go sideways or up as easily as down. (I'm looking at the Aug Sept indecision area as a reference point)

If we close under the 15700 TL, 4H 200EMA and the MPP, then it will be decidely bearish. Until then, I'm just trading the lower TF swings in this area until they sort direction.
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  • #261,382
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:54am Oct 21, 2010 2:54am
This room use to be a great. Now all great traders are gone for some reason. Like Global macro he is one of the best.
  • #261,383
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:55am Oct 21, 2010 2:55am
we'll have to wait till retail sales figures at 930 , if bad then we could go further down, or a nice spike up , ftse gone up 50 points in the morning could b a good indication.
  • #261,384
  • Oct 21, 2010 2:58am Oct 21, 2010 2:58am
Quoting bonus76
This room use to be a great. Now all great traders are gone for some reason. Like Global macro he is one of the best.
Great traders have not the time to post. If you will one day reach GBP1 million in assets you will understand

Some of these great traders are running their own funds now or have significant AUM under management - with other words : other people´s money (OPM).
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #261,385
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:03am Oct 21, 2010 3:03am
possible,but i dnt see it there, i took profit at 1.5748 waiting for S1 if it comes

Quoting MisterTrader
Anybody looking for 1.5556 today ? No ?
  • #261,386
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:07am Oct 21, 2010 3:07am
Quoting fendi
possible,but i dnt see it there, i took profit at 1.5748 waiting for S1 if it comes
Usually announcements like the "spending review" ( what an utter nonsense expression ! ) have a lagging effect on currency dealers as they want o suck in as many "this is all priced in" investors as possible. The hammer follows usually 1-2 days thereafter.

I see 80 % of retail traders long GBP/USD. Cries for more losses.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #261,387
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:14am Oct 21, 2010 3:14am
Quoting MisterTrader
Anybody looking for 1.5556 today ? No ?
Nope, still buying in the dips!! (esp the EUR/USD)

EUR/USD seems to be stronger going north so have been riding that

Yipee !!

Happy green pips to everyone !!

closed all positions today

see you on the flip side (unless i get bored)
  • #261,388
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:18am Oct 21, 2010 3:18am
(Usually announcements like the "spending review" ( what an utter nonsense expression ! )) do i get u properly, b cos i never stated that.....


Quoting MisterTrader
Usually announcements like the "spending review" ( what an utter nonsense expression ! ) have a lagging effect on currency dealers as they want o suck in as many "this is all priced in" investors as possible. The hammer follows usually 1-2 days thereafter.

I see 80 % of retail traders long GBP/USD. Cries for more losses.
  • #261,389
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:24am Oct 21, 2010 3:24am
Quoting MisterTrader
Great traders have not the time to post. If you will one day reach GBP1 million in assets you will understand

Some of these great traders are running their own funds now or have significant AUM under management - with other words : other people´s money (OPM).
A good rule of thumb is not to assume anything about who's posting, who's not, or why.

Some of the "great traders" who've left might of had to pick up an extra pizza delivery shift for all you know. The same holds true for assuming that real traders wouldn't find the time to post online either.

The reason I'm saying this is because a lot of new traders have stardust in their eyes about success. The truth is that only a very small fraction of people posting are successful or move on to larger ambitions, so it's important to be realistic.
  • #261,390
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:29am Oct 21, 2010 3:29am
Quoting Fudomyo
A good rule of thumb is not to assume anything about who's posting, who's not, or why.

Some of the "great traders" who've left might of had to pick up an extra pizza delivery shift...
well said
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #261,391
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:34am Oct 21, 2010 3:34am
U.K. September retail sales fall 0.2%
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #261,392
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:34am Oct 21, 2010 3:34am
It's important to be realistic but confidence doesn't too.
  • #261,393
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:36am Oct 21, 2010 3:36am
Quoting Fudomyo
had to pick up an extra pizza delivery shift for all you know.
So, no delivery service for great traders `?
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #261,394
  • Edited 4:52am Oct 21, 2010 3:36am | Edited 4:52am
case in point....lol

Quoting Fudomyo
... all we've done thus far is establish a potential range.

Looking at the 2 last Daily candles, it could go sideways or up as easily as down.
btw: here's an interesting broker comparison and trader profitability report .

http://forexmagnates.com/us-forex-br...ity-comparison
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  • #261,395
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:42am Oct 21, 2010 3:42am
Price has quickly recovered somewhat from the knee-jerk reaction to weak Uk retail sales data just out. Yesterday's post spending review statement rise founmd supply at the confluence of the previous 4hr swing lo zone, underside of the previous 4hr ascending trend line, 50% of the 6107-5649 fall...the subsequent move down from that 5878 hi found support @ the 76.4% of the 1hr swing up to it 5680-5878.

The current 1hr screenshot in respect of potential supp/res/snr/rbs is below.

G/L

http://www.easy-upload.net/fichiers/z.2010102110425.gif
ex member
  • #261,396
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:51am Oct 21, 2010 3:51am
Uk Boe/Mpc member Posen speaks @ 1015am London time, and we know what effect his dovish/pro more Qe stance had on market last time we spoke -big intraday sell off...

G/L
ex member
  • #261,397
  • Oct 21, 2010 3:52am Oct 21, 2010 3:52am
hello,

As I think the pound will continue down soon

atheer1
atheer1
  • #261,398
  • Oct 21, 2010 4:06am Oct 21, 2010 4:06am
Quoting Fudomyo
hey Bel!...
Nice to see ya around Fudomyo!

Now that we're post-UK news, which was negative, the pre-news candle pierce & rejection of the (orange) UTL becomes more relevant to me. Yes, there's a M15 bullish hammer, but it was built due to the spike down on the bad news, so it's not relevant IMO. On the M5 there's a reversal/neutral doji so that's a slight edge to more downside, but more importantly is just another piece of bad UK news added to the pile.

There's unfinished business down at the last low of 1.5727 and I feel 1.57/1.569 is calling as part of the overall fundamental bearish sterling direction, along with numerous rejections of that UTL. Plus, it's silly colleague the euro did a huge pop of an undeserved 170+ pips and hit expected resistance around 1.404 and needs to regroup; question is will it get only back to 1.4 or 1.398; prolly the latter but then potentially retry upwards, and hopefully fail. Looking for GU 1.5670, 1.5625 on the failure of 1.5690; today would be nice.

I'm expecting USD strength to show as we approach the NY session, which will lend to my bearishness on EU & GU. Along with no POMO presence in NY, I'm expecting a wide ranging down and maybe (later) up day in the Dow & S&P, that should shift strength & interest towards the USD.

And as the G20 currency weekend approaches, I also expect Timmy/Ben/US Proxy Person to do something that will give strength to the USD, to better position the US for the weekend discussions, sort of lending credence to Timmy's earlier statements re not really wanting a weak dollar. Yes, it's lots of theorizing, but let's see! Pips to all!
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  • #261,399
  • Oct 21, 2010 4:11am Oct 21, 2010 4:11am
Do you think Posen will spark another wave of GBP selling in a few minutes?
  • #261,400
  • Oct 21, 2010 4:31am Oct 21, 2010 4:31am
Quoting Beljevina
I'm expecting USD strength to show as we approach the NY session, which will lend to my bearishness on EU & GU. Along with no POMO presence in NY, I'm expecting a wide ranging down and maybe (later) up day in the Dow & S&P, that should shift strength & interest towards the USD.

And as the G20 currency weekend approaches, I also expect Timmy/Ben/US Proxy Person to do something that will give strength to the USD, to better position the US for the weekend discussions, sort of lending credence to Timmy's earlier statements re not really wanting a...
What's interesting is how deftly China played this situation.
The Fed was trying to reduce their debt to China by weakening the Dollar, but it backfired when the Chinese invested strongly into Gold and the Euro and accelerated the spiral down. Now the US faces a potential Dollar panic which wasn't the plan.

Geithner's in a tough spot because the equities market could unwind if they strengthen but they really don't have much choice.

It's not a question of if, just when the Dollar rally begins. Once that happens we should see the proper adjustment down for Sterling, Yen, and CHF.

I'm thinking soon as well. When exactly is the question.
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