USD/JPY Discussion | Page 1014 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,261
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:49pm Oct 17, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting Xaron
HAHA, now that's funny as he predicted something like <1.17 a few weeks before.
I don't think that's the case ... in terms of dates I can remember Ashraf was calling for the 1.40's from the September time-frame and I believe before that. I'd have to check through notes, but many experienced traders were able to predict the melt up through the dog and non-SM days of summer that the euro went through. Since EURUSD approached the 1.4x area over the past weeks, he's been expressing hesitation on shooting beyond the 1.41 area, perhaps going as high as 1.45. But this video was recorded Friday before the 1.397 close, which as a <1.4 close is probably indicative. Regardless, the euro doesn't have the stamina or fundamentals to be where it is, mind you, a lot of it is at the expense of the US$ and what SM decides to do with it.

I believe that one can be hundreds of pips off and still make money IMO, either through hedging or getting one of the major's movements made up in a synthetic pair (ie., GBPCAD) as long as your money management is in good shape; admittedly you have to have a mid-five figure account. It's a matter of adding to winning positions, and if one has losers that look like they're not coming back for a while, take a larger opposite position trade and cut the smaller position loser. There's a trading style implied with his calls and some other conditions, that can present incredible gains IMO.
  • #20,262
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:57pm Oct 17, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting zevgma
Guys, would you please explain me one thing...

A weak dollar is okay for US, so they`re driving it down. Good. Japan feels bad with a strong Yen and they will likely to make smth to weaken it. And let`s say Japan will do something really big to compensate US`s pressure and drive UJ up.

The question is - will both US and Japan be satisfied in this case? Thanks.
You're really talking about the crux of the currency devaluation war that's approaching - everyone wants a low currency to stimulate their own exports, but not everyone can win this fight. There's a broad acknowledgement that the yen is way overvalued. Japan has taken some unprecedented moves recently to try and pull down the yen - the US will put up with it to a point, but I would expect rhetoric to change quickly if/as the US economy tanks - they were criticizing Japan a few years ago for being weak and feeble in handling of it's currency. I don't expect the US rhetoric to spare anyone. They're very selective and use smoke an mirrors - the best example is coming up with fancy terms that don't imply what they're actually up to, ie., 'quantitative easing' versus printing money and pressing buttons to create more dollars in a system that has no clue how many are already out there.
  • #20,263
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:58pm Oct 17, 2010 1:58pm
Maybe triangle China Japan and USA have to resolve this currency mess
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,264
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:03pm Oct 17, 2010 2:03pm
EUR/JPY has come lower along with EUR/USD and that is helping frustrate rallies in USD/JPY. We’ve edged to retest New York highs of 81.48 but are holding below 81.68, yesterday’s high. A sustained break of that level suggests a near-term bottom is in place for USD/JPY. Offers are seen around the 82.00 level so a sharp short-covering rally is less likely than a maddeningly slow grind…


Posted on ForexLive, 18.50 GMT Friday...
  • #20,265
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:11pm Oct 17, 2010 2:11pm
We closed Friday very close to the falling trend line that has been in place (and only pierced twice by quickly retracing spikes) since the initial intervention. I would suggest that from a purely technical perspective a break and close above this line would suggest a significant change in trend structure, otherwise I expect to see a consolidation range or possible retesting of the lows.
  • #20,266
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:22pm Oct 17, 2010 2:22pm
This is just my 2 cents so do not place a position based on it. My "guess" is this is up 50 to 75 pips within next 2 hrs. Will hold there until London Open. This based on the big boys playin around due to new CFTC regs. Hope I am wrong though. Same situation on oter prs depending on the SSI
  • #20,267
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:24pm Oct 17, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting Beljevina
You're really talking about...
Thank You, Beljevina.
Vladimir Vereshchak - Making People Wealthier!
  • #20,268
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:59pm Oct 17, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting Beljevina
You're really talking about the crux of the currency devaluation war that's approaching - everyone wants a low currency to...
DJ n S&P going to collapse soon (if not within this 2 month, before end Q1'11)...n watch gold vs ~ 2 week more for US election....more mess n cooking coming before an actual flushing time coming...i am waiting that moment
  • #20,269
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:08pm Oct 17, 2010 3:08pm
My fibo levels (sell) worked out very fast, with bonus.
  • #20,270
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:27pm Oct 17, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting 13.1 Runner
This is just my 2 cents so do not place a position based on it. My "guess" is this is up 50 to 75 pips within next 2 hrs. Will hold there until London Open. This based on the big boys playin around due to new CFTC regs. Hope I am wrong though. Same situation on oter prs depending on the SSI

All brokers in USA already applied new regulations...nothing new today or tomorrow about it...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,271
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:41pm Oct 17, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting mima
All brokers in USA already applied new regulations...nothing new today or tomorrow about it...

Dont know about other brokers. Just now for a "fact" that FXCM changed their position after Friday close. That part is NOT a guess. I have been in communication with them on several occassions the last 2 weeks aboutthis subject.
  • #20,272
  • Oct 17, 2010 4:10pm Oct 17, 2010 4:10pm
Like I siad on prior post. Guess only. Looks like it held close to Fridays close level.
  • #20,273
  • Oct 17, 2010 4:12pm Oct 17, 2010 4:12pm
Looking like 81.70 key level to take out to move higher...
  • #20,274
  • Oct 17, 2010 7:45pm Oct 17, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Looking like 81.70 key level to take out to move higher...
Before that it can move down to 81.16. (15min fibo). Im short for that with SL at BE 81.40.
  • #20,275
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:36pm Oct 17, 2010 9:36pm
this is what I wast trying to say Wednesday last week.
now USD is going up as safe heaven for some profit takings on risk-on trades.

yet USD/JPY just sidelines for now.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,276
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:43pm Oct 17, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting DMA Trader
this is what I wast trying to say Wednesday last week.
now USD is going up as safe heaven for some profit takings on risk-on trades.

yet USD/JPY just sidelines for now.
Yeah, that's been the case for a little while now hasn't it? Look at eur/usd, gbp/usd, eur/jpy....... given that all these pairs are moving, I don't understand why usd/jpy is in a coma!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #20,277
  • Oct 17, 2010 10:22pm Oct 17, 2010 10:22pm
Quoting realjumper
Yeah, that's been the case for a little while now hasn't it? Look at eur/usd, gbp/usd, eur/jpy....... given that all these pairs are moving, I don't understand why usd/jpy is in a coma!
probably everyone is frozen with fear .... scared of losing !

besides, the thinking might be : there are many pairs to hunt ... why bother with this ..... we'll turn back to this pair when someone blinks in this staring game !

cheeky
  • #20,278
  • Oct 17, 2010 10:33pm Oct 17, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting tenogy


I hope for myself, you and many others in this situation too.

Sorry for the long post every1, hope you dont mind
wish u all the best !

its good that u shared ur experience ... it will be an eye opener and food for thought for everyone ,especially beginners who come in with dreams of getting rich very quickly ...

  • #20,279
  • Oct 17, 2010 11:08pm Oct 17, 2010 11:08pm
Quoting realjumper
Yeah, that's been the case for a little while now hasn't it? Look at eur/usd, gbp/usd, eur/jpy....... given that all these pairs are moving, I don't understand why usd/jpy is in a coma!
King of toilet paper
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,280
  • Edited 11:55pm Oct 17, 2010 11:33pm | Edited 11:55pm
http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLi...12873761100840

http://rt2.it-finance.com/FXStreetLi...12873761100840


well, can't see the chart here ... hope the url works .

anyway , my thoughts :

1) it hit the bottom support twice at 80.89 giving credence to a double bottom on the hourly.

2) forming a nice symmetrical triangle

3) can break either way , up or down

4) macd seem to suggest a possible down bias

5) good for about 30 pips either way in near term IF breakout happens with heavy volume ... (this chart does not have volume indicator)

caveat emptor

(playing around Mac ... hence this trial and error chart pasting here .. and I feel a bit handicapped without the MT4 and the familiarity of PC/XP )
47 traders viewing now