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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #20,241
  • Oct 17, 2010 5:32am Oct 17, 2010 5:32am
Quoting tenogy
Thanks! It helps... are you hedging too? or allowing the equity to float with a negative value? I'd like to know your opinion on the market... thanks!
Yes, i`m hedging also. I just got no choice. Never tried to use hedges before and so let my equity fall to amount i realized i could not stand anymore. So opened my hedge positions. It`s good, so far. Though, swap - is a thing to worry about, eating my deposit day by day. I hope the situation will change in a couple of weeks or so. A lot of us hope here...
Vladimir Vereshchak - Making People Wealthier!
  • #20,242
  • Oct 17, 2010 5:43am Oct 17, 2010 5:43am
Quoting georgem
never go "all in", it is not about getting rich quickly... it will take you some years...
Very much agree! That`s the mistake i made now. Thinking i`m cool being successful trader for some time doing my 30% on a monthly basis, never trading more than 3-4 deals at once with a leverage 1:5 - 1:10 each. Just "put all in" and i`m almost f..cked. Learn on my mistakes, people!
Vladimir Vereshchak - Making People Wealthier!
  • #20,243
  • Oct 17, 2010 5:58am Oct 17, 2010 5:58am
I'm not sure I understand - doesnt the broker make recommendations to you by phone and you agree or not agree? Are you in control? If so, you could analyse the mkt next week and start dismantaling your hedged position one way or another depending on your analysis, but dismantaling a small number of lots first.

From the amount of $$ you mention, I assume you have many lots tied up.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #20,244
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:03am Oct 17, 2010 6:03am
Quoting jsspmk
Even if Ninja does hit 107 long term down trend will be intact.
care to explain what u mean by this ?

thanks.
  • #20,245
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:49am Oct 17, 2010 6:49am
Quoting TheArcher
care to explain what u mean by this ?

thanks.
Look at the above long term chart, if Ninja goes up to 107=200 SMA, then it will be still below previous lower high
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,246
  • Oct 17, 2010 8:31am Oct 17, 2010 8:31am
If QE2 is priced in now as suggested by economists, then next we should see pricing in outcome with UJ being near all time low that ought to strengthen USD until the time when/if QE3 is to be announced. In which case DX will go right through its historical support.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,247
  • Edited 10:57am Oct 17, 2010 8:37am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting georgem
Then manage it yourself. Forex is not something you let others do with your money... never!

Some tips I can give you for your future:

- never use a leverage higher than 50:1, or the market will eat you alive.
- never go "all in", it is not about getting rich quickly... it will take you some years...
- never expect that the market HAS TO DO something... like intervention of BoJ e.g. ... the moment everybody on the street talks about something waiting to happen, it most probably WILL NOT HAPPEN.
- You better go with the trend, or if you go counter...
thanks! I will take your advice seriously.

Quoting zevgma
Yes, i`m hedging also. I just got no choice. Never tried to use hedges before and so let my equity fall to amount i realized i could not stand anymore. So opened my hedge positions. It`s good, so far. Though, swap - is a thing to worry about, eating my deposit day by day. I hope the situation will change in a couple of weeks or so. A lot of us hope here...
I hope for myself, you and many others in this situation too. Let's see how the market is in the coming weeks, and help each other out. I really hope we will get through this. Hope every1 to help us and give us advice too..

Quoting jimobiwan
I'm not sure I understand - doesnt the broker make recommendations to you by phone and you agree or not agree? Are you in control? If so, you could analyse the mkt next week and start dismantaling your hedged position one way or another depending on your analysis, but dismantaling a small number of lots first.

From the amount of $$ you mention, I assume you have many lots tied up.
I'm not sure if i understand your question clearly, but if you were trying to ask if the broker should first recommend to me whether to buy the usdjpy pair at the time, no he didnt make any suggestions, and if he should, I didnt know that he should.
If you were trying to ask whether the broker gave me opinions on what I could decide on, yes he did. He suggested to me 2 ways, 1 is to wait till it reverses and release the hedge, the other is to take the losses and start to recover again from there.

Yeah I could analyse the market next week, but i'm still quite ignorant on technical analysis though, I'm only limited to using those crappy indicators like MA crosses, RSI or stochastic, but so far practicing them on a demo account, had some months gaining, but the next losing all. I had to say i find them quite useless, or maybe I am using them wrongly or not knowing the indicators' full potential. fundamental might help me.. i guess...

so far till now, i've tried to search for sources teaching people how to deal with hedges, I only read that one need to have a good strategy to deal with hedges, but so far havent found any sources that teaches me what I really needed to do. Well, maybe I was looking at a wrong direction. If you could advise me, I'd be really grateful.

regarding number of lots, yea 40lots. 40% of my balance. I'm not sure why, he must have a reason, but it seems to be contrary to what all traders does.. cos having read many advices from traders on the net, most recommend a 2%-5% risk ratio. for my account, 1pip of 1lot is $1, so for 40lots, 1pip is $40. And I also find strange why isnt there a stop loss.

Sorry for the long post every1, hope you dont mind
  • #20,248
  • Oct 17, 2010 8:48am Oct 17, 2010 8:48am
Quoting tenogy
But i dont really trust him anymore
What if I get advice from all of you? Cos you guys seem to be more knowledgeable.. Could I get information from you guys about the market direction?

You must be kidding,right?
By your own admission,you are a newbie who's still losing trading a demo and now you want to manage a losing trade by following "advices" of posters on a forum? If that's the case, then here are my 2 cents: If you absolutely, positively have no more confidence in your fund manager, then bite the bullet and cut your losses and pull out altogether.
Go back to doing your homework and learn some more until you feel competent enough to identify a trend before jumping back in.
If you don't want to do that then you'd have no choice but leave the account in the hand of your manager and hope/pray that he knows what he's doing and will get you some money back somehow.
That may sound harsh but life in fx is definitely not a bed of roses.
  • #20,249
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:18am Oct 17, 2010 9:18am
Great & easy to understand explanation by Ashraf Laidi on his expected mid-term/long-term weakening of the USD. He looks at the dynamics of $65B Japan announced various monetary easing incl. further intervention expectations against the likely $100B-$200B monthly expected FED bond repurchases & other QE. Also seems to remain bullish on EURUSD, pending downside PA (but I believe his UTL has been broken by the now <1.4 close @ weak 1.397) (Spanish interviewer but English responses)

Inserted Video
  • #20,250
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:24am Oct 17, 2010 9:24am
IMO what's worth noting is that all time lows don't just collapse, it takes time.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #20,251
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:34am Oct 17, 2010 9:34am
Quoting Beljevina
Great & easy to understand explanation by Ashraf Laidi on his expected mid-term/long-term weakening of the USD...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGt7X...ature=youtu.be

Thank you
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,252
  • Oct 17, 2010 9:49am Oct 17, 2010 9:49am
Quoting Beljevina
Great & easy to understand explanation by Ashraf Laidi on his expected mid-term/long-term weakening of the USD....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGt7X...ature=youtu.be
Very interesting and also a nice refreshing way of multilanguage interview.. :-)
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #20,253
  • Oct 17, 2010 11:15am Oct 17, 2010 11:15am
Quoting mima
Thank you


I have a very good western educated Jordanian friend who told me once, "In the forex, I can only make money shorting the dollar, every time the trend changes I tend to lose everything I've gained"

He has a cultural bias that he admits is inculcated with his trading. He will always make good money during periods of what appears to be the dollar demise and lose everything when the dollar strengthens. I've asked him if he trades oil with the same type of bias. The answer was yes. We all have psychological weaknesses, this is one of them. Leave your bias at the door and read the charts, change the name of the chart if you have to. Social, cultural and political bias leave analyst vulnerable to shifts in markets. I've been long euro up until recently but its time to let the chart do the speaking. It's no secret that the US will cut spending, the general public demands it! If you do not believe me, watch the November elections. All the QE talk, is in my opinion greatly overstated. Compare the impact that 1 trillion dollars worth of stimulus had on the dollars value with the impact QE rumor has had in recent weeks. Professionals see a perfect opportunity to do what they do best set traps and take profits, while Joe trader is scratching his head.
  • #20,254
  • Oct 17, 2010 11:15am Oct 17, 2010 11:15am
Quoting pqt
You must be kidding,right?
By your own admission,you are a newbie who's still losing trading a demo and now you want to manage a losing trade by following "advices" of posters on a forum? If that's the case, then here are my 2 cents: If you absolutely, positively have no more confidence in your fund manager, then bite the bullet and cut your losses and pull out altogether.
Go back to doing your homework and learn some more until you feel competent enough to identify a trend before jumping back in.
If you don't want to do that then you'd...
I'm that foolish huh.. thanks for your criticism and advice. I will still discuss with my fund manager. He did not simply become a fund manager anyway. So I realize its just a mistake every trader could make. thanks again!
  • #20,255
  • Oct 17, 2010 11:35am Oct 17, 2010 11:35am
Quoting JohnnyC0404
... Professionals see a perfect opportunity to do what they do best set traps and take profits, while Joe trader is scratching his head.
Yes. Trading is business run by professionals based on supply and demand...Joe trader has job to follow professionals.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #20,256
  • Oct 17, 2010 12:31pm Oct 17, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting Beljevina
Also seems to remain bullish on EURUSD...
HAHA, now that's funny as he predicted something like <1.17 a few weeks before.
  • #20,257
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:01pm Oct 17, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting Xaron
HAHA, now that's funny as he predicted something like <1.17 a few weeks before.
Hi Xaron, What's your opinion on BOJ intervention ?
I know you follow the pair closely.

My position is more int AUD/JPY. I can't understand how the pair can be anywhere below 90 ?

C ya later.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #20,258
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:21pm Oct 17, 2010 1:21pm
Guys, would you please explain me one thing...

A weak dollar is okay for US, so they`re driving it down. Good. Japan feels bad with a strong Yen and they will likely to make smth to weaken it. And let`s say Japan will do something really big to compensate US`s pressure and drive UJ up.

The question is - will both US and Japan be satisfied in this case? Thanks.
Vladimir Vereshchak - Making People Wealthier!
  • #20,259
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:38pm Oct 17, 2010 1:38pm
Just an FYI ----
FXCM has changed thier minds/position on open hedged positions on US accounts that have to be transfered back from the UK today. A previous Email from FXCM indicated that the prior hedge positions would not automatically be closed/liquidated when the new CFTC rules were implementd. Only new positions would not be allowed for hedging. I received an email after the market closed on Friday that they changed their position. Guess what will happen today before the retail traders can log on to the open market today. I will give you a hint. The current SSI with FXCM is +86% long USD/JPY. Time to contact the FTC I think. What a mess they have made with providing the prior communication in regard to open hedged positions.
  • #20,260
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:45pm Oct 17, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting Beljevina
Great & easy to understand explanation by Ashraf Laidi on his expected mid-term/long-term weakening of the USD. He looks at the dynamics of $65B Japan announced various monetary easing incl. further intervention expectations against the likely $100B-$200B monthly expected FED bond repurchases & other QE. Also seems to remain bullish on EURUSD, pending downside PA (but I believe his UTL has been broken by the now <1.4 close @ weak 1.397) (Spanish interviewer but English responses)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGt7X...ature=youtu.be...
08.30, he talks about key level MA crosses. I've also noticed on EU a technical golden cross of 50 above 200 on the daily chart.

I take it that this went out post Bernanke speaking...
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