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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #260,761
  • Oct 16, 2010 12:54am Oct 16, 2010 12:54am
Quoting Rockie
I have a demo accout also, but i just got aprooved form FXCM for the real thing. ( a little scary) I've ben reading this forum for the last couple of week's. I'm hoping to get a little advice from tme to time . These guy's seem to be realy good. Good luck

Their customer service sucks. Read broker reviews at Forexpeacearmy that should help.
  • #260,762
  • Oct 16, 2010 4:16am Oct 16, 2010 4:16am
Anyone for support at 1.55?

but 1.57-1.58 will do just fine


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  • #260,763
  • Oct 16, 2010 2:38pm Oct 16, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting JuliusCeasar
Anyone for support at 1.55?

but 1.57-1.58 will do just fine


Attachment
Not saying that we couldn't do a retrace to this area, but your trend-line chart is about as relevant to price action as the monkey pic I am posting.

The issue I have always had with folk that post trend-line charts is they will pick any ambiguous place to draw a line from and to, and continue to post the same thing every time there is a new line created. Almost as if though people choose to draw a line in the sand and say, Price will not cross this line...oh shit it did, okay, well, price will not cross this line...Oh Shit again...Well, If I draw one more line, maybe price will not cross this line again...

An analysis if using any indicator or price action gauge should include all relevant information, otherwise it is completely without merit, will most likely turn out to be 100% wrong, and almost certainly cost you in your account with the same continued poor habits.

An example of what you might see as a little more accuracy on a trend line chart, have a look at the example I am posting. Even though I put very little faith into this kinda shit, I try not to ignore the obvious.

I am not trying to pick on you dude, just don't wanna see you take yourself and others out based on improper use of any tool, and beings how this is an open discussion on what we think we will see, maybe it will stimulate a little convo over the weekend.

Stay safe mango.
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  • #260,764
  • Oct 16, 2010 2:52pm Oct 16, 2010 2:52pm
An interesting look at the charts that might offer a little insight into a price filled chart.

The areas shaded in blue, are areas based on daily roll over and the buy areas above. The areas shaded in red are sell areas from daily roll over and below.

I have chatted at some length about price fills and balancing the books, a concept as old as public trading based on brokers filling in consolidation areas, buying to sell for profit, selling to buy back for profit and the areas that have not been cover traded.

Here is an idea of where we might be headed based on back filling the chart.

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  • #260,765
  • Oct 16, 2010 4:56pm Oct 16, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting Magix
An interesting look at the charts that might offer a little insight into a price filled chart.

The areas shaded in blue, are areas based on daily roll over and the buy areas above. The areas shaded in red are sell areas from daily roll over and below.

I have chatted at some length about price fills and balancing the books, a concept as old as public trading based on brokers filling in consolidation areas, buying to sell for profit, selling to buy back for profit and the areas that have not been cover traded.

Here is an idea of where we might...
I am trying to understand what you are saying.
What sort of price fill can we expect? The thin slice to Monday (last Friday really), the medium slice to Thursday or the huge slice to Wednesday?
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  • #260,766
  • Edited 5:14pm Oct 16, 2010 4:57pm | Edited 5:14pm
Quoting Magix
Not saying that we couldn't do a retrace to this area, but your trend-line chart is about as relevant to price action as the monkey pic I am posting.
...folk that post trend-line charts ... will pick any ambiguous place to draw a line from and to, and continue to post the same thing every time there is a new line created....
An analysis if using any indicator or price action gauge should include all relevant information,...
this is an open discussion on what we think we will see, maybe it will stimulate a little convo over the weekend.
Price action is first, always. A TL is merely an extension of price action.
It's easy to get caught up in one TL or another being valuable, and at the same time difficult to sort through TL's to figure which ones are worth something and which aren't.

I've been fighting this latter problem for a while, with too few successes. One method after another, I get ways to draw TL's that sometimes work fantastically and other times fail miserably. I gather the methods together in a seemingly logical way. I've organized complex patterns which did well when they overlapped and then failed when I tried to include too much in the patterns' definitions when dealing with extra charts' versions of the patterns. As of recent, I try to define the PA where TL's are most likely to anchor, thus removing the patterns' difficulty; what I've gotten so far, though, is nonspecificity, in that no one method prevails naturally when I apply them to a chart.

So, TL's are both accurate as heck and so difficult to choose as to be random. Only a (system of organizing methods of drawing TL's with a) good foundation in price action justifies their use.

I tied in a little more PA (extra/highlighted TL's (in white) through pivots, some spinning tops (in arrows), and a sharply turned support (circled)) to revise the chart, below. Not saying it'll work.


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  • #260,767
  • Oct 16, 2010 6:31pm Oct 16, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Price action is first, always. A TL is merely an extension of price action.
It's easy to get caught up in one TL or another being valuable, and at the same time difficult to sort through TL's to figure which ones are worth something and which aren't.
Price action is always first. 100% correct.
The idea of studying a chart, it's movements via candle stick analysis, trend line or channel analysis or through the use of indicators is at best, just an educated guess.

Throughout your trading career, you will most likely have heard or will hear more times over, the Trend is your Friend.

Throughout your trading career, if you haven't seen or been a part of, you will see and most likely even try to pick tops and bottoms. In this, you will see how many and how easy it is to suffer massive losses through these ideas.

The idea of drawing trend lines as I was shown several years ago, was not to identify tops and bottoms, but more so to keep you trading in the proper direction. The idea of support and resistance are completely separate with exception to the fact that if a trend line is broken, a new trend begins.

Given the length of time or the type of trader you have defined yourself as, is more likely more important then drawing a trend line that stretches back weeks to months ago. Unless you find yourself in a trade for days to weeks to months, why bother even looking back at that much history?

Having an idea of where a trend started is very important, trading with that trend is very important, and finding a place to take profit is also very important. How do you most effectively do this? Shit, a whippy market like we have seen over the last couple days doesn't make this very easy. Channel lulls, massive spikes during off beat sessions, choppy PA, 25 pip 5m candles, and direction that can only be seen after the fact? It ain't easy.

I hammered out just over 135 on Friday. In all of the trades I took, not holding for much more then a couple of sheckles and only surrendering loss of 2 pips on one trade. There really wasn't enough of a trend to follow for me to actually feel comfortable, so I rapid fire traded. Exhilarating to be sure and profitable as it turned out, give me a 50-60 rise in a definable pattern, not where my sphincter is puckered every time I push the button and over all, I am a much happier trader.

The weekly and monthly trend-lines that I see are more chart pattern then trend lines. People that draw them show their best efforts and more understandably ideas why with continued practices may never succeed in this industry. Trade off a 5m chart but look for trends on a weekly to monthly? Really? This makes sense how????

Trend trade ideas...the line or defined channels should look more like the chart posted then should look like the weekly charts posted previously.
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  • #260,768
  • Oct 16, 2010 6:52pm Oct 16, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting ikdenk
I am trying to understand what you are saying.
What sort of price fill can we expect? The thin slice to Monday (last Friday really), the medium slice to Thursday or the huge slice to Wednesday?
The area I have marked in green on this previously posted chart is what is needed. Following the sessions and the who is doing what and who hasn't been there yet isn't the easiest methodology of trading, but certainly one that can be added to an idea of what to watch for.

Where do we go from there? Will we get there?

2 very good questions. The books always balance, but market will move at a rate and on its own clock, so this is again, speculation at best.

As I trade off of the smaller time frames, 1m/5m and only use the others as a general guidance, the price fill is only something I typically am aware of, not the sole method of my trading.

Personally, I don't believe we have come to the top of the chart yet, but with the USDX coming close to what I believe bottom, we might see more of a slide before we head back north. Watching the USDCAD as my typical counter assessment, and knowing that as soon as it is close to or below par there will be a reaction, I was quick fire on the trades, and plan to stay that way until I see something that might be considered stabilization or an discernible trend on the hourly to down charts.



I spend way to much friggen time at my trade station during the week, why I continue on the weekends defies logic.

Enjoy your weekend, I know this prolly don't really answer your question, but the chart that I posted was just an observation with me playing around with a daily roll indicator today.

I will attach it, something to play with. Daily roll is 3pm EST. Use that and you will see how the importance of this line during your trade day, and perhaps gain a better sense of the who and whats from there.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 DailyOpen.mq4   3 KB | 341 downloads
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  • #260,769
  • Oct 16, 2010 7:13pm Oct 16, 2010 7:13pm
Quoting Magix
Throughout your trading career, if you haven't seen or been a part of, you will see and most likely even try to pick tops and bottoms. In this, you will see how many and how easy it is to suffer massive losses through these ideas.

The idea of drawing trend lines ... was... to keep you trading in the proper direction. The idea of support and resistance are completely separate with exception to the fact that if a trend line is broken, a new trend begins.

Given the length of time or the type of trader you have defined yourself as, is more likely...
{each paragraph}

Yeah, perfectionism is still a difficulty for me.

Excellent statement. I've learned and live by this. Kind of redefined the term 'trendline', for me.

Okay, here we go.
I simulator-trade the 1'TF ONLY. Thus, I have a completely different view of "trend". It's just up to down or visa-versa, for me: No trend. All I see from my perspective is bumpy drops where the drops are usually almost indiscernable. So, I draw TL's through some of those bumps into the future.
Recently (the last time being, what, half a year ago), I delved for several hours in the higher TF's, because I found an exploitable edge using someone else's original idea. I achieved a bit more precision higher up, only I still have to tie PA to TL in a condensed way on the 1' before returning there.
The only way I define a "trend" is to count those little jumps on the 1' as trends; it makes adding up the "trend"s' angles easier in figuring direction.

I don't give a flying f- about a "trend" or where it started. I usually study up to where I happen to open the chart window, and then trade asap.
Perhaps this may be merely a bad habit carried over from my olden days; I've tried to work it to my advantage.

Congratulations.
It's good to read posts of someone who has sense about trading.

Agreed. You have relatively fewer candles in the higher TF's, and your take on the higher TF's is spot on. I only get interested going there if I begin at a 1' pattern.

Over the years, I've played with ideas involving the weekly being an ideal TF, due to the natural breaks over the weekend. Maybe one day....
  • #260,770
  • Oct 16, 2010 7:24pm Oct 16, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting Magix
Trade off a 5m chart but look for trends on a weekly to monthly? Really? This makes sense how????
Hi Magix-good point here.Good to see you full of beans,this time difference thing makes me smile-way past my bedtime...
  • #260,771
  • Oct 16, 2010 7:31pm Oct 16, 2010 7:31pm
On the subject of trendlines-I usually look for a channel,I will rarely be satisfied just looking for a line.Trade off M15 and look for channel in that TF and see if it looks convincing in H1 and H4
  • #260,772
  • Oct 16, 2010 7:48pm Oct 16, 2010 7:48pm
trend channel with S&R levels relevant to short term trades.It seems you've got to look at more than one element of price action to get a view that is worthy of putting your cash behind...
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  • #260,773
  • Oct 16, 2010 7:52pm Oct 16, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting chazzle
On the subject of trendlines-I usually look for a channel,I will rarely be satisfied just looking for a line.Trade off M15 and look for channel in that TF and see if it looks convincing in H1 and H4
On the idea of Trendlines....

The use of the 200EMA and the 24SMA are instrumental. 200 is my trend, 24 is my trigger. Continuation and assumption of trend will always carry.

A brief look at Friday. The outside boxes are hourly candles based over the 5m chart. The yellow line being the 200ema the red line being the 24sma. Rather then confuse the direction with candles, I am using a line chart. The way down was a typical play. 5m resistance to 15m support, 15m chart not shown.

Standard play, all time frames. Price drives below 200ema. 24sma dips below 200ema. Price retraces to 200ema. As price drops below 24sma, it is the trigger to sell to support on following time frame.

Pick a time frame, you will see the same thing on all of them. I typically trade with another trigger line following direction of the x created by the 24 and 200. Some trends, some scalps and if I catch the hourly or H4 triggers, will swing.
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  • #260,774
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:14pm Oct 16, 2010 8:14pm
great stuff Magix-I like the outside boxes,another way of seeing PA from a higher TF on a lower one like plotting MAs from different TFs on one chart...would like to do that,but its prob an mt4 thing?I don't use mt4.I will look into my platform see if i can do the same...and the 200ema (which I rely on) does this thing with 24sma on all TFs?Will defo look into it...great material Man(go)
  • #260,775
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:39pm Oct 16, 2010 8:39pm
Quoting chazzle
great stuff Magix-I like the outside boxes,another way of seeing PA from a higher TF on a lower one like plotting MAs from different TFs on one chart...would like to do that,but its prob an mt4 thing?I don't use mt4.I will look into my platform see if i can do the same...and the 200ema (which I rely on) does this thing with 24sma on all TFs?Will defo look into it...great material Man(go)
The outside boxes do make it a little easier to trade off, as well as if you are watching for continuation and get one of those days where you see sideways action, it helps keep you out of the mix...the faster tfs and with the right spread can make these trade-able, but not as much fun.



Here is the daily chart I posted, showing the same thing.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=260168
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  • #260,776
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:41pm Oct 16, 2010 8:41pm
found it on m15 Magix trade to the downside is straightforward and trade to the upside looks good,too obviously...but would have triggered while 24sma was back below 200ema..do you still enter?
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  • #260,777
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:45pm Oct 16, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting chazzle
found it on m15 Magix trade to the downside is straightforward and trade to the upside looks good,too obviously...but would have triggered while 24sma was back below 200ema..do you still enter?
Check your hourly chart out Chaz...just using them 2 moving averages.

Some of the same charts that doc posts are on compression. As the 24 nears the 200, if price closes above, assumption and continuation of trend.

Even on your m15...the 24 is still showing a positive chart, ie, it is still above the 200. IF price closes above 24 and 24 is still above 200, same deal, assume the same direction.
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  • #260,778
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:55pm Oct 16, 2010 8:55pm
I can see that in the long trade sma/ema cross and price retrace to 200 ema happens at the same time actually-but still only about 50 of downside compared with at least 200 of up.Good one.I could possibly incorporate this into my own strategy....thanks for sharing this Magix,Who is doc,sorry its late here (3am) not thinking straight...
  • #260,779
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:06pm Oct 16, 2010 9:06pm
actually that bar where price closes above the 200 would be a good bet to avoid confusion...will look more into it at a reasonable hour,thanks again for your time Magix
  • #260,780
  • Oct 16, 2010 9:29pm Oct 16, 2010 9:29pm
Quoting chazzle
actually that bar where price closes above the 200 would be a good bet to avoid confusion...will look more into it at a reasonable hour,thanks again for your time Magix
Here is doc, and an idea of his compression charts.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post4096848

You will find that in docs mix, he has a grand handle on the idea of the 200.

Chaz, the value of these 2 lines on a 1m chart. You would be shocked at how often you will see this occurrence. Take and draw a horizontal line from where the 24 crosses the 200. Move that line up 100 pips and see what happens...

When you see it, you will shit bricks...

Some will measure by ATR trend tools, but as far as accuracy, I have seen none more consistent.

The 24 and the 200 will cross everyday. When you see this 100 pip maneuver, feel safe in knowing that price will retrace the 200 and the 24 will cross against the trend. This is cable specific. BUT...knowing that all the majors will typically go into buy and sell cycles at about the same time, you can utilize this to help with a couple counter pips and know when not to enter in with the trend. A tale of caution and targets on the 1m.
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