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  • #3,241
  • Oct 14, 2010 10:57pm Oct 14, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Thanks for your question WFX. When it comes to entries, I'm typically looking at the last several candles of the monthly and weekly to determine a reliable long-term trend direction. With the daily, I'm looking at the most recent 1-3 closed candles for confirmation that the short-term price action is in alignment with the longer-term trend.

Example 1: Monthly shows last 10 or so candles in strong downtrend. Weekly shows last 3-4 candles have resumed downtrend after a multi-week pullback. Okay, now looking for a short position. Daily shows a pullback...
this is a brilliant post.
everyone should read this over and over again.

trading with the trend mitigates the risk for search of precise entries
i'm sure graeme will be proud of you.
  • #3,242
  • Oct 14, 2010 11:52pm Oct 14, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Greetings everyone,

I'd like to thank everyone for the posts and PMs in response to my epic post from yesterday. It means a lot to me and I'm extremely pleased to see that others have found some value in what I wrote. So, thanks again. Also, I want to give a big “thank you” to Marion for providing us an update on Graeme’s health. I wish Graeme a speedy recovery.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Now, I'd also like to clear something up. I don't want anybody to be...
Great post Kevin.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,243
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:49am Oct 15, 2010 12:49am
Best Wishes for Graeme,
Truly remarakable he would even consider us here at this time.

Spedy recovery

NE
  • #3,244
  • Oct 15, 2010 4:04am Oct 15, 2010 4:04am
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Thanks for your question, Edd. You are correct that an earlier bailout would potentially preserve profit. My reasoning for waiting for the weekly to go south is that due to the fact that my entries are coming from the daily and may be a little sloppy, a decent bit of drawdown is expected, so I'm willing to let the daily go against me quite a bit before I throw in the towel and pull the plug on the trade. Since I'm counting on the weekly and monthly trends to carry my position into profit, I'll be tolerant of a of a few days of pullback before I...
---

Kevin,

I understand hedging is a misnomer on Graeme's method and I presumed you are doing trade on both direction. In the above example, why did you not consider a trade on the opp. direction instead of closing a losing position with the view of recovery when it turned back to the median (anything that goes up/down it revert back to the median principle). How do you space your trade?

Sincerely,

Edd
  • #3,245
  • Oct 15, 2010 6:44am Oct 15, 2010 6:44am
Good Morning Everyone,

Just woke up to see my second successful trade from last night during London open! Nice and clean 80 pips TP taken out on GBPCAD.

I also too another short position on NZDJPY last night which is still going strong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10-15-2010 4-34-29 AM.png Size: 56 KB


and Here's why I decided to go Long.... there was a FB on Daily candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10-15-2010 4-40-47 AM.png Size: 25 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,246
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:58am Oct 15, 2010 7:58am
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
---

Kevin,

I understand hedging is a misnomer on Graeme's method and I presumed you are doing trade on both direction. In the above example, why did you not consider a trade on the opp. direction instead of closing a losing position with the view of recovery when it turned back to the median (anything that goes up/down it revert back to the median principle). How do you space your trade?

Sincerely,

Edd
Edd,

Yes, true hedging could possibly work well with this strategy as a way to help ride out the moves against you as you wait for the lont-term trend to resume in the event that you get caught in a short-term pullback. Unfortunately, due to the infinite wisdom of the U.S. government, we Yanks are not allowed to place hedged trades on the same pair, so that is not an option I could exercise. That leaves me with choosing to bail out after a certain level of abuse. One may be tempted to bail out and then re-enter in the opposite direction, but that would in most cases be trading against the long-term trend, which violates the central premise of my strategy, so I most likely would not do that. One thing I would consider doing is fading the move against me and adding another position when I see it start to turn around -- this is, of course, "averaging down" and should be used with caution, but I believe if done properly it could be advantagous.

I like to put about 100 pips of separation between stacked trades.

Kevin
  • #3,247
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:18am Oct 15, 2010 9:18am
[
Kevin[/quote]


Hi Kevin

Thanks for your detailed reply, I appreciate your help (from one 40ish struggling with Fx for 3 years to another 40ish struggling with Fx for 3 years..!)

I look forward to your continuing posts

Cheers

Tim aka WFX
  • #3,248
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:20am Oct 15, 2010 9:20am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Edd,

As far as our mission statement for the 200ema project goes, there is no limitation on which direction to trade. You are free to trade in both directions. The key is to achieve a goal of one 80 pips TP by risking no more than 4 SLs level for any given opportunity/setup/pair.

Also / If I take 3 short trades (stacking like I did for cad/jpy) with a single SL risk at any given point and achieve one TP, I consider it collectively as a single opportunity.

Apologies but as somebody new to this thread can you please explain what you are doing with the 200 ema or point me to the post?

Thanks

Tim
  • #3,249
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:24am Oct 15, 2010 9:24am
Quoting wickstedFX
Apologies but as somebody new to this thread can you please explain what you are doing with the 200 ema or point me to the post?

Thanks

Tim
No problem wicksted. We began the 200ema project starting from this post...


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2402
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,250
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:36am Oct 15, 2010 9:36am
Quoting VEEFX
No problem wicksted. We began the 200ema project starting from this post...


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2402
Thanks
  • #3,251
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:05am Oct 15, 2010 11:05am
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Edd,

Yes, true hedging could possibly work well with this strategy as a way to help ride out the moves against you as you wait for the lont-term trend to resume in the event that you get caught in a short-term pullback. Unfortunately, due to the infinite wisdom of the U.S. government, we Yanks are not allowed to place hedged trades on the same pair, so that is not an option I could exercise. ...
Kevin
Greetings, folks! I'm a very late arrival to the thread, but just as thankful nonetheless. Allow me to first extend my sincere wishes to Graeme for a hasty and full recovery from his surgery; and also, to offer my sincere gratitude for his mind-altering market insights and wisdom. It goes without saying that this thread will have a significant impact on many traders, both for those already involved and for those yet to arrive. I only hope that I too can one day make a donation to a charity in his honor.

In addition, thanks to all of the active participants throughout this thread for your efforts to work through so many questions and trouble spots that we all undoubtedly encounter. I found Kevin's recent posts to provide yet another very feasible and simplistic approach to applying Graeme's methods. Being based in the US as well, I am still unsure of how to proceed w.r.t the practice of diversifying. I trade through IBFX, and am wondering if anyone could expound on the idea presented by rdwatkins in his post #1696, pg.114. Is this as simple as creating a sub-account? I realize I should just contact IBFX support, but would prefer knowing the best way to make this request, without possibly tipping my hand regarding my intentions http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

TIA for any additional ideas on this subject.

My best regards to all ... Meph
  • #3,252
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:12am Oct 15, 2010 11:12am
One thing I would consider doing is fading the move against me and adding another position when I see it start to turn around -- this is, of course, "averaging down" and should be used with caution, but I believe if done properly it could be advantagous.

I like to put about 100 pips of separation between stacked trades.

Kevin[/quote]
------
Kevin,
A Pleasant greetings from Toronto.

Yeah, I see it, with the fifo, you cannot move around much. Even your stacking for future growth is hampered. You seemed to have a very solid background alongside with Graeme's methods. It is a blessing for us newbites for you to have the kind heart to share your knowledge until the Guru's return. And we cannot express our gratitude enough for what you are doing. Thank you indeed.

Kind regards,

Edd
  • #3,253
  • Edited 12:02pm Oct 15, 2010 11:34am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting MephistoII
Greetings, folks! I'm a very late arrival to the thread, but just as thankful nonetheless. Allow me to first extend my sincere wishes to Graeme for a hasty and full recovery from his surgery; and also, to offer my sincere gratitude for his mind-altering market insights and wisdom. It goes without saying that this thread will have a significant impact on many traders, both for those already involved and for those yet to arrive. I only hope that I too can one day make a donation to a charity in his honor.

In addition, thanks to all of the active...
Hello Meph,

Although I've not done this myself, I'm almost certain that your broker would not even blink at your request for a sub-account or two separate, but linked accounts. In fact, I would bet money that if you called them up and stated something to the effect of: "I'm really PO'd that I can't hedge!" they would reply with, "Well, there are ways around that, you know. Have you considered having two accounts so you could go long on one and short on the other? We could even link them so you could move funds between the two pretty easily." It's not your broker who is opposed to you hedging, it's the critters in Congress. Your broker will help you do whatever you want to do if there is a legal way to do it, and having multiple accounts is a perfectly legal workaround to the no-hedging rule. I may have even read about the two account option on my (or some) broker's FAQ page, but don't hold me to that.

Update: Here ya go -- direct from a (not my) broker's website...

http://www.cmsfx.com/en/about-cms/co.../announcement/

Kevin
  • #3,254
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:51am Oct 15, 2010 11:51am
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Hello Meph,

Although I've not done this myself, I'm almost certain that your broker would not even blink at your request for a sub-account or two separate, but linked accounts. In fact, I would bet money that if you called them...
Hi Kevin,

Wondering how quick are the sub-account transfers with MB Trading? With IBKR and Oanda, they are almost instantaneous. I haven't come across any brokers that support automation of money transfers thru their APIs. Would love to know if anyone has explored this option.

I would be surprised if brokers don't come up with a innovative way to 'automate via EA' money transfers between MT4 supported sub-accounts.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,255
  • Oct 15, 2010 11:52am Oct 15, 2010 11:52am
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Hello Meph,

Although I've not done this myself, I'm almost certain that your broker would not even blink at your request for a sub-account or two separate, but linked accounts. ...

Kevin
Hi Kevin - thanks much for your quick response. Sounds like a simple phone call is in order

Best of success on your personal journey!

Meph
  • #3,256
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:04pm Oct 15, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Kevin,

Wondering how quick are the sub-account transfers with MB Trading? With IBKR and Oanda, they are almost instantaneous. I haven't come across any brokers that support automation of money transfers thru their APIs. Would love to know if anyone has explored this option.

I would be surprised if brokers don't come up with a innovative way to 'automate via EA' money transfers between MT4 supported sub-accounts.
I couldn't say, Vee. I only have one account with MBT, so I can't speak from experience on that subject.

Kevin
  • #3,257
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:35pm Oct 15, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting kcravey
ahhh, well said!

Comparing trading to the coin toss scenario: (something Graeme suggested we all do earlier on - here is my documented coin toss and emotional thinking along with it)

Cost: 10 pips per coin toss
if the coin is heads up, the trade is a winner (+10 pips - Locked in at B/E) If it is tails = -10 pips

1st trade= heads (+10 pips)
2nd trade = heads up again - (+20 pips in first trade/ 10 pips 2nd trade)
3rd trade= heads up again - (+10 in 3rd, +20 in 2nd/ +30 in 3rd)
4th trade = heads again (+10, +20, +30, +40)
5th...
I know this is old, but it is so very flawed
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,258
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:36pm Oct 15, 2010 12:36pm
A quick follow-up regarding IBFX. An existing account holder can simply login to the site, and once at the 'MY Interbank FX' page, proceed through the link for 'opening an additional live account'.

A simple form to complete, that does also require a response to the following:
"Please provide details regarding the need for an additional account."

I stated that I was examining different strategies, and wanted an easy way to compare results.

They state it takes two business days to complete the request, and there are no costs involved to transfer funds between the two accounts.

The only thing remaining is to see if the feds show up at my door once I initiate the first 'hedge' trade

Good trading ... Meph
  • #3,259
  • Edited 2:22pm Oct 15, 2010 1:33pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting MephistoII
I trade through IBFX, and am wondering if anyone could expound on the idea presented by rdwatkins in his post #1696, pg.114. Is this as simple as creating a sub-account? I realize I should just contact IBFX support, but would prefer knowing the best way to make this request, without possibly tipping my hand regarding my intentions http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

TIA for any additional ideas on this subject.

My best regards to all ... Meph
MephistoII,

This setup was a pair of demo accounts on IBFX only for testing and only created long enough to evaluate the administrative overhead of managing such a system.

As for feedback, it really did not amount to as much overhead as I anticipated. It was easy to evaluate the long term trend (Monthly/Weekly) then pull the pairs into their respective (long or short) MT4 platform. From that point on it actually reduced the amount of confusion I had to deal with in evaluating the daily trends as the longer term was already filtered. I did not take the opportunity to use this to provide hedging as I was simply learning Graeme's method at that point.

Utilizing Kevin's awesome long-term approach, for we who have trouble with seeing the forest for the trees (StarvinforPIPs Post #3204), I would anticipate this method using sub-accounts, or even two separate brokers, as faux hedging might only add a few minutes to each positions review session and have primary ROI in the reduction of stress without impact to potential profits.

Advances on the pair system would be administrative side of matching the short positions in one account to the long positions in the other account(trending and counter-trend millipede legs). From an accounting standpoint and in live accounts this may not even be an issue as the intention is simply to read the signals and "participate" when justified by the PA in either account. Whether that was a long position or a short position (meaning which sub-account that occured in) would not matter to most traders. If it became a problem, I am sure that there is some way to use ETL (Extract, Transform, Load) to get the position data into an excel spreadsheet or a MySQL database for dashboard-like display.

In any case, this is getting too long and I have fully expounded on what I have done and envisioned pertaining to your original question.

BTW, thanks for the IBFX feedback relating to your conversation regarding setup of sub-accounts with that broker; that will certainly come in handy for me in the very near future

Cheers,

RD
  • #3,260
  • Oct 15, 2010 3:13pm Oct 15, 2010 3:13pm
Hi RD - thank you very much for the detailed report on your findings. My only concern at this point is if I'm up to the task of proper bookkeeping, but figure I will start off slow, until I can better evaluate my personal challenges.

One side benefit I can see involves the ability to eliminate the use of nearby stops at the eod/rollover period. I have had trades closed out during these low liquidity periods via widening spreads - something with which I have never quite come to terms. This may be veering far off the intended path of diversification, and is just another aspect that will need to be studied/tested.

Thanks, guys, for your thoughts and comments today.

Cheers .... Meph
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