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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #77,461
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:31pm Oct 14, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting 4X=0
im not convinced this is a legitimate continuation down. look how SWIFT it is
yeah, that trade just had to up!!! I don't know...

You know I was also thinking what if I never take a FIRST extreme against main trend but rather wait for the second impulse agianst main trend. So it will be like a higher low when I fade downtrend or lower high when I fade uptrend....
But again sometimes those first extremes could be most profitable if I really catch that trend exhaustion... don't know... I don't like this... this is almost like there was no BUOB at all...
  • #77,462
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:40pm Oct 14, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting Adilius07
yeah, that trade just had to up!!! I don't know...

You know I was also thinking what if I never take a FIRST extreme against main trend but rather wait for the second impulse agianst main trend. So it will be like a higher low when I fade downtrend or lower high when I fade uptrend....
But again sometimes those first extremes could be most profitable if I really catch that trend exhaustion... don't know... I don't like this... this is almost like there was no BUOB at all...
second impulse against main trend but not a higher low as you said. not a whole lot of risk if you get out when it is clearly making a lower low. here you are still going long but not at the top
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  • #77,463
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:42pm Oct 14, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting Adilius07
Well that BUOB was one big disapointment to me. Why? good size + div.
Yes against main trend but really looked like the trend exhausted (due to size and div)...

So what was my problem with this trade? Should I never trade agianst main trend (even with div + good size)??? Or should I just ignore one failed setup (because even good fail too) and keep on doing what I do?

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1287075520
Were you aware of the fact that it was headed straight into the 14 BRN?

g.
Attached Image
I believe . . .
  • #77,464
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:46pm Oct 14, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting 4X=0
second impulse against main trend but not a higher low as you said. not a whole lot of risk if you get out when it is clearly making a lower low. here you are still going long but not at the top
Oh but that is almost what my thinking is now. Usually I would like to see some "bottoming" PA. Just like at that chart. Look it built some base, there was a PB also so I assumed we made a bottom, then a strong BUOB - "just perfect" I thought....

Clearly I cannot consider that small tiny PB as a first impulse, but if it was bigger/stronger then the previous BUOB would be exaclty my second impulse and higher low kind of setup which I can play...

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1287075520
  • #77,465
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:47pm Oct 14, 2010 12:47pm
I believe Ghous nailed the main culprit of why the trade failed.
  • #77,466
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:48pm Oct 14, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting ghous
Were you aware of the fact that it was headed straight into the 14 BRN?

g.
Yes, so I set my order 6 cents above... and my target was next BRN - 15.

EDIT: Also the previous two BEOB's with the main downtrend were both headed to BRN. And as I noticed on weekly charts many times each candle covers at least 1$, so almost always there would be BRN's on the way. Yet those bearish two worked just perfectly...
  • #77,467
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:54pm Oct 14, 2010 12:54pm
its up 20c or more from the low

i dont know if or when you move to BE but it is in profit
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  • #77,468
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:57pm Oct 14, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting Adilius07
Yes, so I set my order 6 cents above... and my target was next BRN - 15.
You have to understand Adilius, the market's aren't perfect. Setting an order a few pips above an immediate PPZ is better than taking a trade on the break and sitting on the edge of your chair hoping to see the close trouble area break BUT it's not something that gives you sure short edge in trading these less then "bread and butter" trades. Trial and error is really the only way you will, over time understand what kind of trade management suits you best.

There would be traders out there who would have passed this setup just because of spatial concerns, agreed?

There would be traders who would have taken the BUOB at the break and maybe tightened the stop a bit when price pushed through 14.00 and ended up with a < full bar loss, agreed?

There would be traders who would have taken the setup a few pips above the 14.00 in hopes of seeing the level hold as support (including you), agreed?

So who's right and who's wrong? Quite honestly, neither, precisely because the result on a single trade is irrelevant, what matters is your overall experience as it develops with trading setups like these and a large sample space that can help you conclude decisive results.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #77,469
  • Oct 14, 2010 12:58pm Oct 14, 2010 12:58pm
Here is a post by Ppfx, I hope he doesn't mind me posting it. Good points made on this setup before it triggered...

Quoting ppfx
Well i have something to say if i may. The BUOB definitely looks good, but i dont like the big downtrend. Sure the trend can be over, but still. I like much more the BEOBs that i marked. They are much safer. Remember the trend is your friend. Just my opinion.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1286623566
  • #77,470
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:04pm Oct 14, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting Adilius07
Yes, so I set my order 6 cents above... and my target was next BRN - 15.

EDIT: Also the previous two BEOB's with the main downtrend were both headed to BRN. And as I noticed on weekly charts many times each candle covers at least 1$, so almost always there would be BRN's on the way. Yet those bearish two worked just perfectly...
Once again those 2 setups working out compared to the recent one that didn't is something you can't base a rational decision on (As to whether the idea of entering after a literal break of an immediate BRN was a good one)

If you really do intend to master playing these setups Ad, you'll need to put in the time it requires to find your fit, and there are no shortcuts - Warren Buffet says: "You can't make 9 women pregnant and except a baby in 1 month - some things just take time"



g.
I believe . . .
  • #77,471
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:05pm Oct 14, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting ghous
You have to understand Adilius, the market's aren't perfect. Setting an order a few pips above an immediate PPZ is better than taking a trade on the break and sitting on the edge of your chair hoping to see the close trouble area break BUT it's not something that gives you sure short edge in trading these less then "bread and butter" trades. Trial and error is really the only way you will, over time understand what kind of trade management suits you best.

There would be traders out there who would have passed this setup just because of spatial...
Thank you Ghous. Yes in theory I understand this. But at the same time I am still in search for what kind of trader should I be? I can't say for sure which would be more comfortable foro me: taking a break or maybe letting it break then waiting to enter on a retracement or not take setups against trend at all? So this is still a search I am in, just like you say trial and error. I see some people here make perfect trades against a trend, some say don't, so I try to figure out what really should I do, lol. There are no unique rules for everyone so I try to make my own, and really a lot of things are already clear, but some points just like this example are still not clear with lots of doubts....
  • #77,472
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:15pm Oct 14, 2010 1:15pm
what do you think guys about daily bar AUDUSD and NZDUSD.. or its just "illusion" ?

same for USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF ?

EURGBP (confirming 2nd eye ?)?
  • #77,473
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:16pm Oct 14, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Adilius07
Well that BUOB was one big disapointment to me. Why?
Quoting ghous
Were you aware of the fact that it was headed straight into the 14 BRN?
...
Quoting ppfx
.. BUOB definitely looks good, but i dont like the big downtrend...
If you're planning to enter @14.06 seems much more reasonable since this would indicate a break, but it also can reverse and end like a weekly pinbar. ..(I watched some similar examples in the past myself)
just to add...

14.00 was a PPZ. notice how price cut through (/whipped around) 14.00 on at least 3 instances (see your chart). so i guess a 14.06 entry wont do well.
downtrend + PPZ + TL (drawn by ppfx) = serious confluence against your trade

Quoting Adilius07
Yes, so I set my order 6 cents above... and my target was next BRN - 15.
...Also the previous two BEOB's with the main downtrend were both headed to BRN. .... Yet those bearish two worked just perfectly...
of course, with-trend bars will cut through anything, including RNs.
the difference are
u traded counter-trend
BUOB did not close above 14.00 ppz (i believe this is crucial). [inother words, BUOB size could've been bigger]

since price is in a downtrend, price whipped around 14.00, BUOB did not close above 14.00 & there's a downTL confluence,
a 14.00 breakout & retrace entry seems like the best entry method u could've employed here.

a good 'lesson chart' for us, Adilius. Thanks!
  • #77,474
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:27pm Oct 14, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting Adilius07
Thank you Ghous. Yes in theory I understand this. But at the same time I am still in search for what kind of trader should I be?...
There is direct correlation between risk and reward. Trading PA at swing highs and swing lows can be very rewarding because you're essentially getting in very early into a new wave of orders, but at the same time you can't rule out the fact that you're considering the current order flow in the market "as weak and unlikely to sustain itself". To be doing that is brave and this thread teaches you just what is it that you need to back that bravery up with in order to keep this whole thing still a business.

We know when trading at swing points and looking for reversals we need big bars that clearly indicate a shift in momentum, we also know that bar shape alone isn't all that matters. Our bars need to rightly located with enough supporting confluences. And we also need to watch out for trouble areas ford a possible attempt by the former dominant party to take control of the proceedings once again. Not to say these aspects can be ignored when trading with the trend, but at swing points they are more important than when trading with the trend.

Once again I have no right to flat out call that BUOB setup "invalid" despite the fact that it was struggling in the "space department" because as you said and understood, there is no one size fits all theme going here at the thread, nor is there a "system" being taught here. J16 is a method, developing a system around it is well up to the individual depending on one's own preferences of risk appetite, mental setup bla bla

***---***

You asked in that initial post why that BUOB failed. The J16 method has an answer, but thing is, one trader will kick himself/herself for taking a less than A+ setup, while some other trader in some other corner of the world, will smile at the loss and think about moving on to the next one.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #77,475
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:33pm Oct 14, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting supremeChaos
just to add...

14.00 was a PPZ. notice how price cut through (/whipped around) 14.00 on at least 3 instances (see your chart). so i guess a 14.06 entry wont do well.
downtrend + PPZ + TL (drawn by ppfx) = serious confluence against your trade


of course, with-trend bars will cut through anything, including RNs.
the difference are
u traded counter-trend
BUOB did not close above 14.00 ppz (i believe this is crucial). [inother words, BUOB size could've been bigger]

since price is in a downtrend, price whipped around 14.00, BUOB did not close...
Thank you SC. Really cool analysis!! And this is what feels right to me:
of course, with-trend bars will cut through anything, including RNs.
So maybe really, I should save myself a headache and just stay away from such clear counter-trend setups. For you guys it's obvious by now (ppz,brn), but when I look at the chart I sometimes just miss them comepletly (even though I know what they are) or they seem as not such a big deal (bar looks much stronger)...

Ok, so for this trade I would make the following assumptions:
A) Supporting a trade: BUOB, Divergence, Swing Low
B) Against trade: Trend, TL, BRN, PPZ

Yeah, skipping it looks a wiser choice now....
  • #77,476
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:38pm Oct 14, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting Adilius07
.. I am still in search for what kind of trader should I be?......
study all/most of the charts here..
look at the seniors' charts& posts.
sooner or later u will tend to create an affinity towards 1 or 2 or 3 traders here....their way of thinking, their way of trading.

once that happens... well, that is the answer to your question above.

also, it would help tremendously if u know yourself & know what u want. your 'search' will end faster, this way.
  • #77,477
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:39pm Oct 14, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting ghous
There is direct correlation between risk and reward. Trading PA at swing highs and swing lows can be very rewarding because you're essentially getting in very early into a new wave of orders, but at the same time you can't rule out the fact that you're considering the current order flow in the market "as weak and unlikely to sustain itself". To be doing that is brave and this thread teaches you just what is it that you need to back that bravery up with in order to keep this whole thing still a business.

We know when trading at swing points and...
Thanks Ghous. Strong points. Yes, exactly that trade was some kind of bravery I had maybe. When things go ok I sometimes get that bravery and overconfidence until the loosers come... So I really have a lot to work on myself.. patience, discipline those things have to be improved.. and of course "system" the set of rules to live and trade by - this part is still not done yet... Ahh so much to learn yet..
  • #77,478
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:40pm Oct 14, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting mistersimple
what do you think guys about daily bar AUDUSD and NZDUSD.. or its just "illusion" ?

same for USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF ?

EURGBP (confirming 2nd eye ?)?

AUDUSD - 99.00 strong level, a close or order below 99 would be better imo
NZDUSD - 75.65 strong level, but im not sure, it went to 21 oct 09 high, double top ??
USDJPY - rite now is not a PB, let see how it close
USDCAD - 1.0170 strong level (40 pips from actual price)
USDCHF - rite now is not a PB, let see how it close

The ones I like are USDCAD and AU as they are parity levels and its where the big money is gonna be, imo

To be a PB close have to be inside prior day candle (correct me if im wrong)

Comments are appreciated....

Os.
Trade Smart
  • #77,479
  • Oct 14, 2010 1:46pm Oct 14, 2010 1:46pm
USDCAD broke yesterday previous month's low. but today it seems it will close above that line...

-----------------------
little question anyone using 150 and 300 ema (with 3140 and -3140 levels ) on H4?
  • #77,480
  • Oct 14, 2010 2:00pm Oct 14, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting mistersimple
..
little question anyone using 150 and 300 ema (with 3140 and -3140 levels ) on H4?
No.
are u using it? on what basis? why H4?
Thanks!
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