USD/CHF | Page 33 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/CHF

Similar Threads

GBP/CHF and USD/CHF 955 replies

Correlation EUR/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF (Humour me please... Thx) 8 replies

Can only view EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF through broker? 1 reply

EUR/CHF, USD/CHF turning up? 1 reply

Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies

Attachments: USD/CHF
Exit Attachments

USD/CHF

  • #641
  • Oct 4, 2010 5:22am Oct 4, 2010 5:22am
Quoting XTrade
Hey How are you. and all.

THis pair is still not ready to buy in my opinion....


Seconded. Waiting to go long from it's all-time low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-wkly.gif Size: 25 KB
From the tips to the dips, it's all about the pips
  • #642
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:15am Oct 4, 2010 6:15am
Quoting theforexpert
Seconded. Waiting to go long from it's all-time low

thats enough time to go up I hope because off all time low but why is still falling I couldnT understan may be after us Pending Home Sales m/m if it is high then previous
  • #643
  • Oct 4, 2010 7:27am Oct 4, 2010 7:27am
I cannot see any technical or fundamental reason to expect this pair to go down to its historical low. While that would make a very nice entry, I just cannot convince myself that it is going to happen, not with any good degree of probability.

On the other hand, I really do not understand why the pair is where it is at present. The USD is not healthy, but then it is a matter of which currency is sickest among the sick. Admittedly CHF is in somewhat better condition than the other majorsm but not to the extent of where the pair is at present. Nor is it advantageous for Switzerland, which is an exporter and a fairly popular winter holiday destination, to have a currency so highly valued.

I would not depend on this, but I think that this pair may be ready to go up.

There is a very nice diagonal head and shoulders on the weekly chart which has completed the pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #644
  • Oct 4, 2010 7:44am Oct 4, 2010 7:44am
Quoting moonchild
... but I think that this pair may be ready to go up.
Of course, but not b4 the big boys have cleaned out as many accounts as they could...
  • #645
  • Oct 4, 2010 8:08am Oct 4, 2010 8:08am
Rumor of the day ( as usually from well informed informants from the City - hehe ) :

two large hedge funds are sitting on open positions / paper profits of more than 1 billion CHF. And it seems our braniac Swiss investment banks CS and UBS are feeding these funds every day with new profits - my greetings to the most generous central banker worldwide, her majesty "no-clue-Phillip-at-all" Hildebrand !
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #646
  • Oct 4, 2010 11:59pm Oct 4, 2010 11:59pm
Should we go Long this pair. Seem to be good price now.
  • #647
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:30am Oct 5, 2010 3:30am
Quoting pqt
96xx
Ka-ching! $$
  • #648
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:34am Oct 5, 2010 3:34am
Quoting glopfel
weekly and monthly minimum close is at .9930 and daily minimum close is at .9843, both respected well so far, loaded longs around .9850-70, .96 was just a spike back in history, this doesnt mean it can not be tested, but thats a low probablity thing.

plus swiss franc trust is over 100 once again, which never lasted too long over that level - (1/usdchf)*100 -, with a nice mm, these places are good to build longs imo.
Hope u learned ur lesson now.
Don't mess with history.
  • #649
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:48am Oct 5, 2010 3:48am
USD/CHF weekly and 4 hr ..good luck..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 1.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #650
  • Edited 6:45am Oct 5, 2010 6:25am | Edited 6:45am
From my previous posted chart, [page43] you can see why I think this is a good place to go long.
But now that I've put a Fibonacci channel on the chart, the question is more 'if it can come down to 0.89?' Yes, it can! It's a very plausible possibility and the fib support at this moment backs up the idea of going long for now. Also, if we close up on the H4 Timeframe, we actually see a falling wedge pattern where its technical target, lies very close to the upper fib channel line. Watch out for this possibility and use caution if buying..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.png Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd chf.png Size: 59 KB
  • #651
  • Oct 5, 2010 9:43am Oct 5, 2010 9:43am
This is the time to go long I think opening short is very risky ?_?
  • #652
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:22am Oct 5, 2010 10:22am
I do not particularly like to try to call specific highs or lows.

However, in this case, I think we just saw the low. The pair come to within about 20 pips of its historical low and turned around.

I think that long here (.9665) with a stop at .9715 would be a high probability trade.
  • #653
  • Edited 11:21am Oct 5, 2010 10:56am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting moonchild
However, in this case, I think we just saw the low. The pair come to within about 20 pips of its historical low and turned around.

I think that long here (.9665) with a stop at .9715 would be a high probability trade.
I hope you right, but I think this pair could go lower to near 0.90 levels.

(Remember EURCHF just

few month back, before current drop lowest level was 1.4320 and after that pair dropped to 1.28

that's 1500+ pips below previous low, so if this converted to USD/CHF scenario, then

0.96 previous low - 1500 pips make this low 0.80, I don't think it's going to go that low but, everything is possible)

EUR was in panic selling mode, well, that could happens to USD as well. And SNB in particular more worried

about EUR valuation (their closest trading partner) and care less about USDCHF, so no help here.

1 thing I still don't get it though, why media keep saying that

people buying Swiss Franc, due tho the Economic turbulence, while

same people propping up RISK trade AUD/NZD/CAD to historic high levels

at the same time? So why buy CHF, when Risk appetite is at highest levels and EUR flying?

Something is wrong with this picture.

YEN and CHF logically should be a weakest currencies on the board right now!

Who needs safety when Global Markets are on fire?

===

After all Swiss Franc is valued in Switzerland like $0.25 in the USA, they have 5 Franc coin in circulation.

How the heck Dollar could be valued less than Franc, when USD used to buy 4-7 Francs? -That's how

ridiculous resent valuation is.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #654
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:14am Oct 5, 2010 11:14am
Quoting SkyzerFX
I hope you right, but I think this pair could go lower to near 0.90

(Remember EURCHF just

few month back, before current drop lowest level was 1.4320 and after that pair drop to 1.28

that's 1300 pips below previous low, so if this converted to USD/CHF scenario, then

0.96 previous low - 1300 pips make this 0.84, I don't think it's going to go that low but, everything is possible)

levels. 1 thing I still don't get it though, why media keep saying that

people buying Swiss Franc, due tho the Economic turbulence, while

same...
Yes, things are very strange and it somehow reminds me of the situation around 2005 or so when there was a similar disconnect.

Basically, the US news has not been terrible most of the time. When the US news is terrible, then EU and GBP and AUD and NZD all drop. There has been very little really bad news lately, so these higher risk currencies have been flying. They only drop when the USD news is really terrible.

The problem with this pair is that it is composed of 2 currencies which are historically "safer" currencies. That is what makes predicting what will occur with these much more difficult.

With that being said, it helps neither member of the pair for the pair to be heading south. CHF does not benefit from it making it more difficult to sell swiss exports, and USD does not need to be weakened since there are virtually no exports to worry about their becoming too expensive for other countries to buy.

I really hope that this pair does not make new lows.
  • #655
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:17am Oct 5, 2010 11:17am
Quoting SkyzerFX
I hope you right, but I think this pair could go lower to near 0.90 levels.

(Remember EURCHF just

few month back, before current drop lowest level was 1.4320 and after that pair drop to 1.28

that's 1500+ pips below previous low, so if this converted to USD/CHF scenario, then

0.96 previous low - 1300 pips make this low 0.80, I don't think it's going to go that low but, everything is possible)

[color=blue]EUR was in panic selling mode, well, that could happens...
THEY are usually big hedge funds with tons of cash. Logic is not their forte . Either that or they manipulate us good!!

Seriously though, one reason I think could explain the free fall of USD/CHF is that because of threats of intervention in UJ (another so-called safe haven currency), the specs are taking it out on the Swissie (path of least resistance )
  • #656
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:28am Oct 5, 2010 11:28am
Quoting pqt
Seriously though, one reason I think could explain the free fall of USD/CHF is that because of threats of intervention in UJ (another so-called safe haven currency), the specs are taking it out on the Swissie (path of least resistance )
That's part I agree on.. Still under today Market conditions, JPY and CHF

used to be weak, since there should be no demand for safe haven.

In other word currencies like AUD and CHF used to be moving in appositive

direction: more demand for risk= less demand for safety and vise versa.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #657
  • Oct 5, 2010 11:42am Oct 5, 2010 11:42am
Quoting SkyzerFX
That's part I agree on.. Still under today Market conditions, JPY and CHF

used to be weak, since there should be no demand for safe haven.

In other word currencies like AUD and CHF used to be moving in appositive

direction: more demand for risk= less demand for safety.
I wonder about that.

For one thing, USD and CHF have both (with JPY) been considered safe haven currencies, so that the tendency to run to safe haven currencies in bad times and in times of uncertainty is hardler to apply in this case.

On the other hand, what I really do not understand is the relative calm in the market. The numbers, which too a large extent represent fiction rather than reality, should be discounted in most cases. An honest look at the global situation should send anyone into a panic. Things are not good. Many of the EZ countries are real trouble, with the greek problem only having been postponed and the irish problem likely to be worse than originally thought. As to the US, Bernanke finally admitted that things are not doing as well as hoped for so that further step will have to be taken.

More and more people are unemployed in the US and unemployment will be increasing in the EZ, causing the recent rioting, there is a current slowing down in foreclosures but that is very temporary with worse to come. Buying increased but it was mostly in response to paying people to buy cars and houses.

After the amount of money already spent and realizing how llittle lasting effect it had, people should be soiling themselves.

The current situtation should have the market flocking to the safe haven currencies at record speed. My problem is trying to understand why not.

So why is the market not worried? Is everyone playing ostrich?
  • #658
  • Oct 5, 2010 12:07pm Oct 5, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
That's part I agree on.. Still under today Market conditions, JPY and CHF

used to be weak, since there should be no demand for safe haven.

In other word currencies like AUD and CHF used to be moving in appositive

direction: more demand for risk= less demand for safety and vise versa.
These are interesting times (to use a cliche). We are not in full fledge recovery or mired in depression either (that's a moot point, I know). In that sense I see the logic of the big players to play both sides of the "risk on,risk off" equation, killing one bird with two stones I call it . All that matters is making a buck and what would be easier to put your tons of cash trading against the poor sap who tried to play by the old rules!
  • #659
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:18pm Oct 5, 2010 1:18pm
Alright here is some pics from my last visit, that was 2006, when

CHF if I'm not mistaken was traded around 1.12-1.18/USD

Those photos not from some fancy exclusive designer shops, but

just a regular store (Prices shown in Swiss Francs).. In today prices those shoes on the pic, worth $600?

I'm sure now, they are even higher in price..

Gimme a f* break, I can get it in US for $150 or less...

Just for illustration only, so you know, what Swiss Franc really worth

out there.. My bill for launch was near less than $150+.. Shot of Vodka $8

And go from there (Don't even ask for TAXI ride prices, it's like 20$ couple of miles)

I hope someone will find it interesting. That's my own photos.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vol_p2.jpg Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: vol_p3.jpg Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: vol_p4.jpg Size: 80 KB
Attached Image
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #660
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:25pm Oct 5, 2010 1:25pm
20 pips to hist. low (.0938) ....why don't go long at hist. low? ; p there's no stronger S
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
3 traders viewing now