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  • #3,141
  • Oct 2, 2010 11:54am Oct 2, 2010 11:54am
[quote=SABTrader;4066802]
Quoting VEEFX
Dang it! Missed this spike down in the direction of my anticipation. Anyone trading on their smartphone? I think it is a must for any breakout strategy !

Why not place a stop order to enter on the breakout?
most brokers have this order type for entries and exits.
I consider my broker as my business partner.
They do half the work for me.
If I don't trust them I don't do business with them.

"I'm trying to embrace the reality that WE DON"T KNOW what will happen."
But when it does happen it is good to be positioned...
LOL... that's my 'old' style of trading... 'set and forget' type entries via bracket orders. Better for my life style but not very profitable.

With Graeme's approach, we need to wait for confirmation based on when and how the current candle closes (and not just take a trade based on touching a price level). We are also 'forced' to watch our entries and move to BE and start stacking etc.

I struggle with this aspect as I want to trade to improve my life style and not just spend my 'life' taking low risk razor sharp entries on lower timeframes. I plan to quit my job and go full time to reduce stress and spend more time on the beach :- currently exploring ways to (semi)automate some of the strategies discussed in this thread.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,142
  • Oct 2, 2010 11:56am Oct 2, 2010 11:56am
Quoting paul1
I find your post inspirational but can you help me understand this:-
One trade that had at one hour become -1200 is now +11,000!!!!!!!

I for one would never have a -1200 pips position in live.
he meant $1200 and not 1200 pips.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,143
  • Oct 2, 2010 12:08pm Oct 2, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting mjaymay
Paul1, ...

The most important point of Graeme's teaching to me is not Razor Sharp Entries, but Participation. That was one of the first things he said was Entries are not that important. And then the whole rest of the thread has been about perfecting entries.
...

Michael
I agree Michael that we all are focussing too much on entries trying to 'systemize' Graeme's teachings to some extend. HAving said this, taking LOW risk setup/entries is the core behind this approach to trading. One would need a VERY large account to continuously participate in the market with a 50+ pips SL.
Hence the emphasis (and subsequent struggles) on entries by fellow traders.

just my 2 cents
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,144
  • Oct 2, 2010 12:21pm Oct 2, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting VEEFX
I agree Michael that we all are focussing too much on entries trying to 'systemize' Graeme's teachings to some extend. HAving said this, taking LOW risk setup/entries is the core behind this approach to trading. One would need a VERY large account to continuously participate in the market with a 50+ pips SL.
Hence the emphasis (and subsequent struggles) on entries by fellow traders.

just my 2 cents
The point of my previous post is by using position size i.e. micro instead of mini your only risking 10% per entry so 50 pips movement would be 5 pip risk .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #3,145
  • Oct 2, 2010 12:54pm Oct 2, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting VEEFX
I agree Michael that we all are focussing too much on entries trying to 'systemize' Graeme's teachings to some extend. HAving said this, taking LOW risk setup/entries is the core behind this approach to trading. One would need a VERY large account to continuously participate in the market with a 50+ pips SL.
Hence the emphasis (and subsequent struggles) on entries by fellow traders.

just my 2 cents
EDIT: Just to go a little further on my thought.... only the first few initial entries are of significance in regards to their importance. Once we go with 2 lot entries, adding small profit from 1 position into the SL of initial entries and giving the initial entries more room to run 'forever' is really THE gold mine approach to this trading philosophy. Think about the possibilities of trading Marion's strategy only in the direction of the long term term and keep on adding a few lower timeframe profits into the H4 TF entries and never close them as long as the trend continues. Start the same approach in opposite direction once the weekly/monthly trend changes and you are on the path to infinite yield i.e. retirement in the bahamas

Eyeballing/Backtesting proves this to be a very viable strategy. I think I have said enough
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,146
  • Oct 2, 2010 1:00pm Oct 2, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting paul1
The point of my previous post is by using position size i.e. micro instead of mini your only risking 10% per entry so 50 pips movement would be 5 pip risk .
I understand Paul.. it's all relative to 'scale'. Please take no offense when I say this...
If you play with pennies, a bag full of pennies (infinite yield) would still be only just a few dollars. Unless you are taking 10 times more micro sized entries in an automated way, you are looking at a LOT of hard work and long hours watching charts and making entries... just my 2 cents. (not disagreeing with what you are saying)
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,147
  • Oct 2, 2010 1:00pm Oct 2, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting VEEFX
EDIT: Just to go a little further on my thought.... only the first few initial entries are of significance in regards to their importance....
Yes VEE. We are in agreement. Low risk is important. My point was it doesn't need to be perfect. And as Paul stated, scaling position size down by a factor of 10 (micro vs. mini) reduces risk even more effectively than smaller SL. We have to remember that Graeme started with a significant sized account. (six figures) So 2 lots for him would be like a micro for someone starting with $1000-$5000. That's what Paul and I have been emphasizing.

Michael
  • #3,148
  • Oct 2, 2010 5:10pm Oct 2, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting VEEFX
I understand Paul.. it's all relative to 'scale'. Please take no offense when I say this...
If you play with pennies, a bag full of pennies (infinite yield) would still be only just a few dollars. Unless you are taking 10 times more micro sized entries in an automated way, you are looking at a LOT of hard work and long hours watching charts and making entries... just my 2 cents. (not disagreeing with what you are saying)
I feel you misunderstand.
I to want as big a position as you .
The only difference is you are aiming for pinpoint entries with say a mini with 10 pip stop.
We are suggesting taking advantage of a larger stop by reducing position size,and scaling in.There is more chance of a small position with bigger stop surviving . Than a larger position with small stop.

If you have a larger account just suggesting breaking it up into smaller pieces with larger stop

I personally feel you would have to spend a lot longer checking charts with tight stop.
than reducing position to small entry and check tomorrow to decide to add or subtract from the position.

during the time i have been attempting this method i have seen times when price has moved down 100 pips and back up 190 pips in hours not days
in conditions like these tight stops moved to be have a limited chance of survival.
I have no problem getting an entry to be i can do it all day but my problem has been my entry price invariably being retested and taking my be trades out.
Which has lead to the suggestion of reduced position bigger stop.
We all got to find which works for us.





,
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #3,149
  • Oct 2, 2010 5:47pm Oct 2, 2010 5:47pm
Quoting paul1
We are suggesting taking advantage of a larger stop by reducing position size,and scaling in.There is more chance of a small position with bigger stop surviving . Than a larger position with small stop.
Hello Paul,

I think that all of the above are possible ways, as long as you are participating.

My personal view however is tight entry (and maintaining the position size...like 0.1 lot or more if confident for a $5000 account). Practice entries using the 20/20 exercise Graeme mentioned in post 211, page 15 until you get it right.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #3,150
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:25pm Oct 2, 2010 10:25pm
Quoting VEEFX
Hi FB,

The stats are always in my post whenever my SL trade is taken out as in my last post #3093. Here's the latest stats for the 200ema project for your reference. It should answer most of your questions.

I have not tried 200ema setup in my live trading yet as my comfort level is still low on this approach. In theory, it makes a LOT of sense. As with any trading approach, I must practice my entries to become profitable first before I gamble with my hard 'earned' money.

Regarding your question on my live trading, I went live right after...
Hi Vee & Graeme,

Graeme, firstly really want to say BIG Thanks and appreciated all your posts here. You really did put EVERYTHING out already, it is up to us now to participate.
This is really one interesting thread with a generous teacher.

Vee, thanks for your trade summary and doing this project.
You really been honoured been first and selected as a Turtle on this project.
Please keep going on with this project.

Vee, the below mesg is mostly for you and to forum readers.

I really had difficult sleeping through analysing Graeme's millipede strategy.

Your project currently result in 0 win based on your demo trade summary, but your live trade have some wins.
Good for your live trades. It also mean you trade differently from demo to live.

We come to many threads because either we want a better win/loss strategy or a better reward strategy. Graeme's strategy clearly in the better reward strategy. Better rewards is not talk as much in this Forex Factory.

Graeme is really playing with us by teasing us with such a huge reward. By playing with this project, Graeme really teaching us all in an interactive way and this is a terrific manner.

Graeme's strategy really works as it is really based on pure simple statistics.

I still need to confirm with Graeme or Vee, that Graeeme takes ONLY a 10pips loss for a 1,000pips gain. It is the 10pips Stop Loss that I want to emulate first.

Strategy works due mainly to Graeme's first concern is preserve capital via:
- Going Long AND Short by Hedging
- Not favoring any specific currency
- Not predicting future prices
- Ruthless with Stop Loss by keeping it so small. 10pips.
- Having a Huge Capital to start to trade first
- Exit some of the smaller positions when needed
- Move every position to Break Even so that you have one extra ammunition each time you moved it to Break Even.


The Rewards:
- The earlier post by another member about stats and coin toss really is what this is about.
- Enormous Reward to small Risk
- Always participation and Continuous Stacking
- Always keeping at least One Oldest Soldier alive
- Must catch at least 1 trending currency

The Risks:
- That out of 100 trades, none get to 1000pips or profit. Just wait longer.
- Risk of broker not paying out due to such large amount of win $$$$$$$ waiting.
- May take a long time to exit.
- Not knowing when to exit.


Example: Our typical result assuming our win/loss is 50% and reward:risk is 1:1. We have 100 trades. What does it mean when we have a win?

1 Win => Need 49 more wins to Break Even
2 Wins => Need 48 more wins to Break Even
3 Wins => Need 47 more wins to Break Even
4 Wins => Need 46 more wins to Break Even
5 Wins => Need 45 more wins to Break Even

What does a win mean to Graeme where he only has a 5% win/loss ratio in 100 trades?

95 Losses => 95 * 10pips = -950pips

1 Win => Break Even
2 Wins => Take family out to Michelin 3 Star dinner
3 Wins => Take family for holiday
4 Wins => Buy a normal car
5 Wins => Buy a normal house

The above Wins are the results of a 5% win/loss strategy. And Graeme increase this odds to just 30% by using the Flying Budha entries. Imagine that!

Take the above example in jest, but visualise how this may actually work for us.

Vee, for your project where you take a 20pips loss for a 80pips profit, 1:4.
Assuming you use the Flying Budha which has a 30% win/loss.
Out of 10 trades, 7 Loss * -20 = -140pips. 3 Wins * 80 = 240pips.

This is not the reward that would excite you to keep going after many strings of Break Evens and Losses.

This system works in the manner that Graeme eagerly looks forward for 95 Losses fast, in order to get the 5 Wins.
And out the 95 Losses, he want to make those into as many Break Even so he have more bullets.

Of course it is harder for us to go for Graeme 1:100.

For this Project to continue, it need to emulate more of the millipede, suggest:
- risk:reward at least 1:10 so that the first win would reach Break Even.
- This means risk 20pips, reward 200pips. 200pips is reasonable and doable.
- Or risk 10pips, reward 100pips. This would be super if can achieve 10pips loss.
- Hedge where you can. I did not see this hedging done in the demo trades.
- You asked in one post what to do when a few positions reach 80pips whether to exit all. Keep at least 1 Soldier. 1 Soldier will reach 200pips, then 400pips, then 600pips, then 800pips, then 1000pips.
- Stack more when in your favour.
- Look first for trending currency, rather than just which one has flying budha.
- Follow how Graeme exit is more of a key than how he entered. We need to learn more on the exit.

This strategy works. Is it for everyone ? Is it for me?
It is probably more complex than other strategies here in the Factory, due to the managing of multiple positions, hedging, and the emotion tussle of when to exit a large position.

Now you know why i didn't sleep much.

Cheers,
FB.
  • #3,151
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:35pm Oct 2, 2010 10:35pm
Hi guys, if I may join the conversation:

Graeme starts with NO sl to begin with and once a 5 min candle decisively closes in the opposite direction, he bails out. That is his way of tighter Stop loss.

Secondly, if you are entering at extremes, as per Graeme's approach, like retest of Wick or FB, etc., there is really no need to give room above the previous candle's wick

So, it's really about picking a spot where logically a short SL should suffice. Whether that position runs marathon is purely up to the market.

I know, I am not adding anything new. Just wanted to share my thoughts.


Regards,
TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #3,152
  • Oct 3, 2010 6:44am Oct 3, 2010 6:44am
A question on the accounts of the brokers....as a matter of interest.
Just say, you are long
+1 AUDUSD, +1 EURUSD, +1 AUDEUR.
How do different brokers maintain these.... are they kept completely separate or combined.
eg; in the above example (please ignore the rough differences in the FX rates and assume everything is rounded for simplicity) most brokers would show +2 AUDUSD.

Are there brokers that are actually keeping the trades separate? or are they amalgamating the accounts just to show balances of AUD, USD, EUR.
This clearly has issues for portfolio concentration, depending on the cross rates chosen.
  • #3,153
  • Oct 3, 2010 7:53am Oct 3, 2010 7:53am
Vee,

Thanks for the PM, I appreciate it. I will research the Brokers you recommended. I may not go through with IB then after reading your mail.

Edd
  • #3,154
  • Oct 3, 2010 9:45pm Oct 3, 2010 9:45pm
Quoting TJPLD
I found out that in the first hours of London (8-11 Central European Time) a significat low or high will be made 70% of the time on GBPUSD and EURUSD. Meaning that either the high or the low during that session will survive the next 24 hours with a 70% Chance. I tested this over 10 Years. That's what I'm trying to catch every day. Today only 6 Pips Risk (Small Flying Buddah Pinbar on M5 really early in the session) 138 Pips Reward.
Thanks for that.
Good Trading
  • #3,155
  • Oct 3, 2010 9:57pm Oct 3, 2010 9:57pm
Just to add a little bit.

Somewhere in the thread Graeme mentioned about how the success rate of our entry improve as we use longer timeframe.

Is it just me or does anyone here trade using Daily Chart as your focal interpretation? You will notice that the success rate is much-much higher .. and stress-free.. your routine includes checking the chart for 20 min in the morning .. and that's it. Use limit/stop orders.

But yes SL is slightly bigger (50-90 pips), but it worths the convenience of checking the charts once a day LOL. As Jesse Livermore once said, "its the sitting that makes the money".

(success means ... you have enough time to move SL to BE)
  • #3,156
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:23am Oct 4, 2010 12:23am
Quoting mjaymay
The most important point of Graeme's teaching to me is not Razor Sharp Entries, but Participation. That was one of the first things he said was Entries are not that important.

We just missed a massive move in the EURUSD because we were trying to be too perfect, for instance. This is speculation, plain and simple. There is nothing wrong with that. We prove our opinions by making money or losing money. Every time. So we need to trade on a "scale" that will allow us to lose money without incapacitating our ability to continue trading.


Michael...
Totally agree! Graeme is big about "go with the flow", "participate". He mentions multiple entry methods - whatever works for you - just get a scout out to the field to battle for you.

I also agree with the small positions. If you take a 10% trade on your account - you can only be wrong 10 times. If we take 1% trades - the odds are more in our favor. Also, we can hang with the day charts and not stress over 10 pips lost. If we are with the main long term trend - one day retracement will be nothing in the overall scheme of things.

Paul - you had asked how I had a -1200 position become $11000. That is one of the demo account experiments I had going testing this. That one position is now $26,000!!! The last time I posted that account on here it was up to $60k, it is now up to $137K - those same trades!!!

Totally sold - hook, line and sinker on this Equity Millipede!
  • #3,157
  • Oct 4, 2010 12:29am Oct 4, 2010 12:29am
Quoting VEEFX
Sorry Guys....
Good Evening/Morning Graeme and fellow traders,

Hope you all had a wonderful weekend. A quick update on where I stand on continuing my participation in the 200ema project that I volunteered for Graeme two weeks back. I am a bit concerned that no one raised their hand (either publicly or privately) to my previous request to get confirmation of a successful outcome in their objective of meeting 80 pips TP. However, I did receive a tremendous response and kudos from most of frequent participants to continue my participation of posting trades for this project and that they are learning a lot from my experience and chart illustrations. I thank you all for your kind words. It helped me maintain my focus and motivation for the benefit of all.

To those of you who suggested changing the guidelines for this project, I don't feel comfortable doing that. I think it would just confuse our readers.

I did looked back at Graeme's post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2401 in which he mentions... "I would like one volunteer who has the time and patience to assist me for the next week or two in bringing something important for the rest of the readers. ".

I believe Graeme had a plan in place to take this project to another level for us.

I suggest we all wait for Graeme to recover from his ongoing health issues and see which direction he wants us all to take. In the meantime, I will continue to 'silently' take 200ema based trades for this project (time permitting) and continue to keep a trade log and charts in a word document for future reference. If I get my first TP=80 pips, I would post that trade details in this post.

Until then, let us all re-read this thread, practice on taking low risk entries and try to become better traders (and keep looking in the mirror as the Holy Grail lies within you!)

Happy Trading everybody.

(Hope Graeme recovers and we get to hear from him. As TIC mentioned in his recent post, Graeme's message is loud and clear in all his posts.)
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,158
  • Oct 4, 2010 1:07am Oct 4, 2010 1:07am
Quoting kcravey
Totally agree!...
Amazing results Kcravey. Not sure if you are trading E/U but here's my live trade on E/U since Sept 17th with 2 mini-lots(EUR 20K/USD 26K). Unlike you, I am not too excited as we are experiencing strong trend with dollar weakness fundamentally speaking. Look at A/U... it continues to go up (although I think it is ready for a huge retrace!). I continue to remain cautiously optimistic of my live trading results.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10-3-2010 10-50-12 PM.png Size: 31 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,159
  • Oct 4, 2010 3:55am Oct 4, 2010 3:55am
Quoting VEEFX
To those of you who suggested changing the guidelines for this project, I don't feel comfortable doing that. I think it would just confuse our readers.

I believe Graeme had a plan in place to take this project to another level for us.

I suggest we all wait for Graeme to recover from his ongoing health issues and see which direction he wants us all to take.

In the meantime, I will continue to 'silently' take 200ema based trades for this project (time permitting) and continue to keep a trade log and charts in a word document for future...
Agreed to all, veefx.
Thanks for your efforts.
Hope soon to see Graeme once he is fine.

Cheers
  • #3,160
  • Oct 4, 2010 4:55am Oct 4, 2010 4:55am
Quoting kcravey
Totally agree! Graeme is big about "go with the flow", "participate". He mentions multiple entry methods - whatever works for you - just get a scout out to the field to battle for you.

I also agree with the small positions. If you take a 10% trade on your account - you can only be wrong 10 times. If we take 1% trades - the odds are more in our favor. Also, we can hang with the day charts and not stress over 10 pips lost. If we are with the main long term trend - one day retracement will be nothing in the overall scheme of things....
Based on live account buddy whats your entry /stop loss criteria please.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
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