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  • #299,781
  • Oct 2, 2010 3:27am Oct 2, 2010 3:27am
Quoting panosd
Can i ask how ireland bank's( Anglo Irish and Allied Irish Bank) passed the stress test and now 2 months later they almost BANKRUPT?????Is this a prove that stess tests results are fake?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...reaking13.html



http://bocktherobber.com/2010/07/eur...k-stress-tests

Remember the european bank stress test scam news item - stress tests full of lies? Boy that was big news. Then it wasn't. I wonder why?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #299,782
  • Oct 2, 2010 4:31am Oct 2, 2010 4:31am
Quoting Jhig
Couldn't have said it better myself.

I've been 'forecasting' 1.38 all week just by looking at the longer term chart. Traders seem to forget theres more going on in the market than the '5 min'. EU ran for 1000 strong bullish ticks, with no retrace, and no one saw it. Traders were too busy calling tops.

Now that price has reached 1.38, I'm still looking for a push upwards to reach 1.40. Don't think retrace will happen until price makes 1.40 or near.

One retrace has happened, I believe price will fall all the way down to 1.30.

Attachment

With...
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #299,783
  • Oct 2, 2010 4:48am Oct 2, 2010 4:48am
Quoting DMA Trader
since when is long term investment a sheep thing.
you seem to think that all stock market is a ponzi scheme.

The fact that retail investor keep saying a double dip is coming is a very contrarian indicator. Since when does the retail investor know how market works.

In my view it's a trade war. doesn't have to do with the stock market. Stocks have been up when dollar was going up in history.
Thats exactly my point. Most who had 401k plans and other long term plans got killed in 2008. The few who survived kept their money on the sidelines for another good time to re enter the markets. The ones who lost it all in 2008 and have some money to invest now are still on the sidelines waiting for a good time to reenter. These types of traders don't know anything about trading except what their company plan offers them. In general they all know the economy is bad and this is not the time to buy anything. Now with all the fed intervention, weaker dollar and stronger equities at all times, even when the fundies are extremely negative, this may attract new money to long term equities simply because those people whom I consider sheep don't know anything and see day after day of bullish price action, they may be convinced this is the time to reenter the markets. As soon as enough such people enter the markets, another massive sell off will begin demoralizing those people yet bringing in massive profits for those sharks who wait for the right moment to strike short.

Again, this is just my personal opinion, it has nothing to do with "quantitative easing" nothing to do with China Yuan which can't get stronger (if US don't like it the Chinese will just take their business somewhere else) it has nothing to do with the Japanese trying to make the Yen weaker (just look at the USD/JPY). It's all about creating the illusion that everything is good and we have nowhere to go but up from here, until reality kicks in.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #299,784
  • Oct 2, 2010 5:17am Oct 2, 2010 5:17am
Quoting infinitus
Hey,

good to hear that. Last time I had not so much luck with my dentist...
i can just say thank you for all this valuable information you're providing. more via email... lots of thoughts.
  • #299,785
  • Oct 2, 2010 5:20am Oct 2, 2010 5:20am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...ervention.html

With further euro gains the BoJ will continue to be the 800-lb gorilla in the room. Will they or won't they? Well, if they don't then they are no longer 800 lb, only like 75 lb.

Anywho, one of the comments in the Telegraph article is:

"Unemployment in Japan fell from 5.2% to 5.1% this month, a balance of payments surplus in the region of $200bn, an admirably low crime rate, a tolerable average standard of living and pretty good urban infrastructure. Their government debt as a fraction of GDP is about twice the US, thereby suggesting that the US could throw another $10 trillion or so at QE and still not fix the economy, based on the Japanese experience."

So the government has run up a huge debt but the Japanese state of affairs is not that bad. Hey, if it is good enough for Japan - why should we worry here in the USA? Just print more money! We should all chip in and buy the Fed a bigger, faster money printing press. Somebody text Trichet when we put the old one up for sale on ebay.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #299,786
  • Oct 2, 2010 5:21am Oct 2, 2010 5:21am
Quoting psiholog
Thats exactly my point. Most who had 401k plans and other long term plans got killed in 2008. The few who survived kept their money on the sidelines for another good time to re enter the markets. The ones who lost it all in 2008 and have some money to invest now are still on the sidelines waiting for a good time to reenter. These types of traders don't know anything about trading except what their company plan offers them. In general they all know the economy is bad and this is not the time to buy anything. Now with all the fed intervention, weaker...
I think that is also because this generation 1980-20010 don't know anything about stock market or trading. All I see on tv are people that are old and this is not the first crisis. Rogers, Soros, Buffett ...

That's because people got to the idea that stock market can only go up from 1980 to 2000 what was the point of trading since you would have miss the huge move. Now those days are gone. And the retail investor keep looking for a good entry. everybody is waiting for the crash. I've heard one investor on CNBC was a 35 old man he was ask.
- Do you but into the market ?
- No I think a crash is comming.
- When did you got out
- In 2009 ?
- And what now ?
- I'm staying in bonds until the crash comes again and then I am going to buy ))))

So he miss the entire rally. Now you may be right. There could be a sense of relief now that "economy is doing better" to let them come again.

Or maybe some of them are buying gold.

Who knows but until people feel more confident about the market I think there is upside room. Oh and I do know a lot of stocks are overvalued. Like BIDU AMZN ...

So you could be right, i still think the retail investors are the best contrarian indicator out there and the media really really messes with their minds.

There were headlines everywhere "watch out for September, it's one of the worst" and it turned up to be the best September in 71 years for stocks.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #299,787
  • Oct 2, 2010 7:25am Oct 2, 2010 7:25am
Quoting Xaron
Hehe, ok. I'll go more in detail soon in my thread with some examples how I'd like to handle it.

That's good buddy I am ready whenever you are always good to discuss money management....

Anyway, I don't have a static profit level as I like to let the market give me what it is keen on giving me. So semi martingale makes it a bit hard but I normally add on after the 1st loss with around 30% then add 30% ish again... you get the point...

The risk/reward doesn't come from a single trade but several trades as in % drawdown/wins etc. 2%/6% every day... so when 2% loss is reached in one day I'll leave the market...

You get the idea
peace
  • #299,788
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:09am Oct 2, 2010 8:09am
this is some price projection . monday is the key for a possible reversal or i should say corrections . 1.38 area is a strong resistance . a daily break above that level will keep this bull train going in an extension to higer levels . on friday we had wave b of sub wave 4 . so there should be a small retracment to finish 4 before it goes higer to 1.3822 to finish 5
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  • #299,789
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:38am Oct 2, 2010 8:38am
can someone explain this please i came across it in my trading platform

long swap rate -380 short swap rate +50
thanks

leon
  • #299,790
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:52am Oct 2, 2010 8:52am
Quote
Federal Reserve policy makers are now debating how to deploy tools for more unconventional easing as two top officials indicated action may be needed to lower unemployment persisting near 10 percent.
“Further action is likely to be warranted unless the economic outlook evolves in a way that makes me more confident that we will see better outcomes for both employment and inflation before too long,” New York Fed president .
Blmbrg
Attached Image
  • #299,791
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:59am Oct 2, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Mr Hatch
phew... i thought the fib-extension was too high @ 2698, but then i saw the m1-timeframe.
would you care to edit your fib-levels and add the prices, so that they're visible on your charts? just add %$ to the description, and the price will be visible right next to the projected level.
Mr Hatch.. can u give me the auto fibo indicator..tq
MM system the best..
  • #299,792
  • Oct 2, 2010 9:08am Oct 2, 2010 9:08am
hello,everyone . in my chart ,the weekly chart ,the price is now touch the top line of the channel line . maybe it will have a reverse next week.then the target will be the support line @1.3550.but if it can cross the channel line ,then the target will be the resistence line @1.44. lets see .
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #299,793
  • Oct 2, 2010 9:47am Oct 2, 2010 9:47am
Quoting infinitus
http://singulorum001.blogspot.com/20...w-3-would.html
think u shd stop wasting time counting waves...
  • #299,794
  • Oct 2, 2010 9:47am Oct 2, 2010 9:47am
I am short the EURO at 1.378. Hoping that the USD will gain strength next week. What will aid the USD strength?

I understand that better prospect for US will boost risk which means EURO will rise....

Bad prospect for US means USD will decline... so whats the trade? Long the euro? Wat will coz this USD to rise...

I saw the options calls traded 5X higher for UUP USD index... bullsih bets ahead?
  • #299,795
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:07am Oct 2, 2010 10:07am
Quoting stocktrader
I am short the EURO at 1.378. Hoping that the USD will gain strength next week. What will aid the USD strength?

I understand that better prospect for US will boost risk which means EURO will rise....

Bad prospect for US means USD will decline... so whats the trade? Long the euro? Wat will coz this USD to rise...

I saw the options calls traded 5X higher for UUP USD index... bullsih bets ahead?
hoping is gd. but yea trading shdnt be based on hope
  • #299,796
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:19am Oct 2, 2010 10:19am
u haven answered my qns though.... what will cause the dollar to rise any idea?
  • #299,797
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:28am Oct 2, 2010 10:28am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...reaking13.html



http://bocktherobber.com/2010/07/eur...k-stress-tests

Remember the european bank stress test scam news item - stress tests full of lies? Boy that was big news. Then it wasn't. I wonder why?

How many other banks "passed" that are in the same situation?
  • #299,798
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:39am Oct 2, 2010 10:39am
Quoting stocktrader
u haven answered my qns though.... what will cause the dollar to rise any idea?
A device invented in 1440 in Germany by Johnannes Gutenberg, wiil make the USD go down. As for what will make it go up? Possibly bad EZ news (eh..it's not bad enough I guess). A dismissal of QE2 "talk", US elections pass with a more conservative outlook, etc.
  • #299,799
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:42am Oct 2, 2010 10:42am
I still remember the 17 of march top at 1,3816.........
  • #299,800
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:54am Oct 2, 2010 10:54am
Quoting stocktrader
u haven answered my qns though.... what will cause the dollar to rise any idea?
if u ask me, USD used to go up when there is bad news, investors going for safe haven currency. but now it seems that swissy has replaced usd as the safe haven... USD might only go up on gd news...

but who cares abt fundamentals if u are a TA?
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