Building an equity millipede

Guys its great things are going well for all of us but do keep in mind this rally of the past 2 weeks has been among the strongest rallies of the year. Things have just been shooting up

If you'd entered long EU/EG/AC etc blindfolded with a reasonable stop you'd have caught the trend.

It may just be luck, i believe the most imp factor in this strategy is to try to perfect ur entries and thats not easy, I've been practicing Graeme's 3*20 pip a day exercise for quite some time now and am currently on day 79.

Let me just say this ....... its not easy perfecting entries it take a lot of time effort and frustration.

Right now even the beginners i know are making money and telling me about how easy forex is.

So do take care everyone and be very careful on live accounts

Sorry Guys. I didn't mean to start a pissing contest over my post. I am glad this thread has helped some of you have the 'aha' moment and become better traders. The results posted by some are simply fascinating. I have also gone live right after our first weekend exercise very positive outcome (over 800 pips combined in E/J and A/U pairs).

My apologies for not being clear when I asked you all to raise your hand in my post above.

Allow me to use some simple IF-THEN-ELSE logic to bring clarity to what I was looking for:

IF

(1) you are purely trading/participating in the 200ema project that started exactly two weeks back in conjunction with my live trades

AND

(2) you are choosing your pairs PURELY based on price hugging or recently peircing the 200ema line only on H4 timeframe.

AND

(3) you are considering only H4 as your profiting ground

AND

(4) you did hindsight on all higher timeframes and based your anticipation on H4 timeframe

AND

(5) you entered trades based on 20 pips SL and 80 pips TP

AND

(6) you only allowed FOUR entries based on a single pair setup/opportunity on H4 timeframe

AND

(7) you managed to hit a TP of 80 pips on a single H4 either via a single trade or via stacking multiple trades in lower timeframes AND staying within the confines of our 1:4 risk:reward as outlined in our mission statement

THEN...

I would really like to see your entries along with your thought process, hindsight, anticipation in a chart illustration ONLY for the trade(s) that took you to 80 pips of Take Profit.

This project is really about learning from my mistakes/experience/thought process that I am going though when I take these live trades within the limitations imposed by our mission statement.. This request is intended purely in the spirit of learning for each other. That's all.

Now, may I please ask that you raise your hands ONLY if you have met the above trading conditions.

Hope to hear from Graeme this weekend. If not, I would like to do a pulse check to see if you all would like me to continue this project into next week (beyond the intended two weeks duration set forth by Graeme).

Have a good weekend everyone.

no, you are not, because you are an expert in my opinion.

following everyday's open & close is a promising way to apply graeme's idea, especially after you combined it with .00 entry. that is in fact what i'm experimenting now (and seeing great potential...well, it trends for a month now...)

thanks, your comments strengthen my belief.

anyone tested 33,50,66% retracement entry of previous day range ?

I see this as the potential hand-off way to enter market with decent R:R and
checking the market once or twice per day.

Nice thread............................

Hi Songbo,
Using an entry at 50% retrace of the previous candle is what Graeme told us "Joe" was using before he/they discovered Flying Buddha's.
Except that "Joe" was doing it using the 4 hour TF. Using 50% levels is a profitable way to get an entry in, and traders have been doing this simple method for years as a way of getting in at a better price. I remember seeing some charts of J16 doing this over in his thread.

Cheers,
Eric

Hi Vee,

I have read this thread, and only yesterday caught up with last 50pages that you doing this Project.

What are the differences in your live trading of getting "(over 800 pips combined in E/J and A/U pairs)" versus the trading in this Project as results vary big difference ?


Based on this project:
- How many trades have you opened?
- How many trades have you closed?
- How many trades earn a profit(eg. >= +1pip) ?
- How many trades reach Break Even?
- How many trades reach SL -20pips ?
- How many trades actually hit your set TP +80pips ?

I am just doing some quick analysis based on these demo trades.

Thanks,
FB.

[quote=VEEFX;4066358]Dang it! Missed this spike down in the direction of my anticipation. Anyone trading on their smartphone? I think it is a must for any breakout strategy !

Why not place a stop order to enter on the breakout?
most brokers have this order type for entries and exits.
I consider my broker as my business partner.
They do half the work for me.
If I don't trust them I don't do business with them.

"I'm trying to embrace the reality that WE DON"T KNOW what will happen."
But when it does happen it is good to be positioned correctly.

steve

Why not place a stop order to enter on the breakout?

steve[/quote]
Looks like this is not an option for this method, Steve. Nonetheless I believe we are authorized to find a way around it.

AUD/CAD retrace 50% of its week's bullish candle, after hitting all time high at round number 10000. A mention for the FB. I am definitely short - selling it.

Muntu

I havent........I know you only want hands up from those that did....but still.............this trading method is just as difficult as any others to get going. Higher time frame patterns and PA are no more easier than 1min, 5min etc. All charts look same from all TF and all are just as random about direction.....just that the reward can be higher, but only if you have some trading capitol to begin with or else you have to wait long time for not so many $ / £ back.

How can you be certain it wont fly thru the number 10000 ?

I am certain of nothing my friend, I just make a plan and if it fails, I will lose 35 pips here. But if I am right, it might be the start of 1000 pips journey.

I think it will bounce of the 10EMA.........or the 21EMA........ etc etc

or the 34 EMA on the 4H TF

Totally agree: it will sure bounce some whereOnly hope it happens after traling SL to BE + 3 pips.

I find your post inspirational but can you help me understand this:-
One trade that had at one hour become -1200 is now +11,000!!!!!!!

I for one would never have a -1200 pips position in live.

Thankyou for your response can you tell us how long you been testing this and a bit about your results please.

Sorry if people feel this is off topic but i feel we are all looking for entry system that works best for us and at the moment thats the topic behind vee's involvement. once enough of us are comfortable we can move on.
This part of the project i beleive is the first major hurdle to success.

Some have overcome this hurdle but hurdle 2 has not been discussed "exits" how to spot them, how long is too long to stay in."Getting out to early" when is that?

Can i explain my reasoning .
I think i can safely assume 10 cents a pip is not most peoples ideal position size.
Say $1 a pip is for $1000 dollar account.
my goal is to have a mini lot on with minimal risk.
based on my goal position size of a $1 a pip.
on a daily basis using a micro with daily range for example 140pips.
Not using a stop I am risking 14 pips per day .

eg:- 1 mini = $1 pip goal position size.
1 mini goes against 140 pips
1 micro goes against =14 pips so we have reduced risk without a stop purely using position size.
It still moved 140 pips but you only risked 10% thus 14 pips
Move to be and risk 14 pips tomorrow.
If price keeps moving we can keep increasing position size never risking more than around 14 pips of ideal position size.

Paul1, I think we are looking to accomplish the same thing. I have been practicing trading the daily for the past several months and have combined that with Graeme's principles. What I like to do is have a daily perspective and then use the 1H chart for the details. I like the brokers who have 00:00 start time correspond with the end of New York session. This gives some time at the start of the new candle to make decisions because the market is more quiet (usually) after 5:00 Eastern.

The way I figure it we can add another micro lot as the initial position moves in our favor. As the trend gets longer term we have been stacking to make our position larger, even as large as the mini lot others would have started with. (But I think starting with a mini would limit the number of legs you can add as well as the number of pairs that can be traded at one time) This multiplies the profits of the initial play when it turns out to be correct. If it turns out to be incorrect we get out with a small loss with the benefit of having a wider stop loss.

As the account grows we can increase our basic lot size, but in my mind it should always be small enough to be almost insignificant to lose. Even if we are really aggressive we should ultimately only be risking two of these small positions on a large spike. (But I agree with what VEE keeps repeating, move to BE before adding another position) And this would be a sign to reassess the situation and close some for profit to balance the loss. (This assumes the overall position has multiple legs in profit on a longer trend)

If this reverse happens early in the trend then it tells us the market isn't going for us yet and we pay for the attempt with one or maybe two small positions. But like you stated, it took a very large move to do it vs. a couple normal fluctuations. Then we start over.

I only bring this up to encourage people to experiment, not to necessarily try and do what I'm trying. I'm not trying to prove what I'm doing is the "right" way, only one possible way. And I haven't run enough tests to base any conclusions on. We each have to find what works for us. I read something by an experienced trader that said we can only trade the market according to our own personality. That's why trading someone else's techniques often don't work, because they don't fit the new trader's personality.

One way that I've been thinking of dealing with closing positions is to just use signals in the opposite direction that would normally trigger me to open a position. So if we're stacking positions in a down-trend and the next day shows a buy, it may trigger a stop loss or BE and that could be a trigger to take profit on one or more recent legs. If the price moves more in that direction, which if we started flat would make us want to buy, then maybe close more. I don't know. This is where it gets very individual based on what you want out of the move and are willing to lose in potential profit.

The big thing that has hit home with me when reading the advice of experienced traders is you have to be able to stay in the game. There definitely is a randomness element to the markets. We can't explain what happens much of the time. The most important point of Graeme's teaching to me is not Razor Sharp Entries, but Participation. That was one of the first things he said was Entries are not that important. And then the whole rest of the thread has been about perfecting entries.

Obviously if the entry is better the result will be better. But if the pursuit of the perfect entry causes you to never get in and participate, what's the benefit in that. We just missed a massive move in the EURUSD because we were trying to be too perfect, for instance. This is speculation, plain and simple. There is nothing wrong with that. We prove our opinions by making money or losing money. Every time. So we need to trade on a "scale" that will allow us to lose money without incapacitating our ability to continue trading.

Someone mentioned that maybe it was luck that they caught a big trend. Yes, of course it was luck. At least it was luck that the trend turned out to be so big. Does that make the money worth less? That is what we are trying to do. Be in position to get lucky. All the rest is about staying solvent until you get lucky. That is the skill. You can't benefit from luck if you're not in the game. You can't get lucky with a 1000+ pip move if you take profit at 150 and then look for the next trade or keep getting stopped out on normal market fluctuations.

OK, sorry, too much rambling. Best of luck to all.

Michael

Hi FB,

The stats are always in my post whenever my SL trade is taken out as in my last post #3093. Here's the latest stats for the 200ema project for your reference. It should answer most of your questions.

I have not tried 200ema setup in my live trading yet as my comfort level is still low on this approach. In theory, it makes a LOT of sense. As with any trading approach, I must practice my entries to become profitable first before I gamble with my hard 'earned' money.

Regarding your question on my live trading, I went live right after our very first 2 week long project by Graeme ('using hindsight on weekly and trading on 5M timeframe'). I tried the same philosophy on A/U and E/J and had to close them when I reached near 800 pips to recover my losses on U/J long position (the darn BOJ debated on intervention forever!). Otherwise, I would have let it run forever and made some serious pips by now.

Both A/U and E/J had relatively small positions at that time (approx 50K each) to give me the courage to try it live (and I am glad I did!). In 20:20 hindsight, I broke my rule here....I should have tried it on my Oanda or fxcm micro accounts first (live but used as 'demo' to try new strategies). I guess I just got lucky.

Hope this helps.