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  • #3,101
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:30am Oct 1, 2010 8:30am
here's my take...
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Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #3,102
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:57am Oct 1, 2010 8:57am
Quoting paul1
http://www.olsenblog.com/wp-content/..._Trade_5.2.pdf

This seems to how some of the experienced traders see entries not as a single entry.
But based on splitting your position into smaller pieces.
then your entry is based on your average price.
Gives a lot more flexibility on entries.

After all we are only trying to get an entry into a trend based on highnsight.
At the moment greame is just trying to get us in on the ladder.
I know the only reason i dont have big legs on eur/usd is my stops.
If i had a 10 pip take...
Excellent article, Paul. Should be recommended reading for all traders. Thanks for sharing!

Kevin
  • #3,103
  • Oct 1, 2010 9:00am Oct 1, 2010 9:00am
Hi Guys,

it seems like the thread is drifting away from what graeme's had intended it to be. if we just go back to square one - re read the whole thread again and maybe we will be enlightened. IMHO, with the correct understanding of greame's teaching and paired it with correct mindset and discipline... anybody can be a profitable trader. he put a lot of emphasis on PARTICIPATION... find a good entry (razor sharp) and lots and lots of practice. supply and demand... when price travelled far from the mean (5/10 ema) they're bound to come back (correction) and sometimes with a good momentum it will just reverse. proper use of multiple time frame is the key to lock-in heaps of pips.

i reckon, one should stop talking about not so important things... but instead participate with the market as much as you can. and only then you can get enough experience and deeper understanding of the market, and structure. as you gain more and more participation, confidence will grow and also your equity curve.

take notice of vee's participation for example, learn from his views, insights and trade calls... may it be good or bad compared to your analysis but there's nobody who's right or wrong here, either way, all of us are learning. maybe some don't notice it but we're all sharing here... even the psych part of us.

don't forget graeme's voice, engulfing candles, doji, hammer, pin bar, evening star... flying buddha... in confluence with emas and multiple time frame - and plus your frequent participation... isn't it a gold mine! he's urging us to find our edge, remember... what is your edge? finding a very good entry - high probability and low risk (razor sharp)


daily directional bias, using 4h/1h on 200 ema at 5 minute timeframe for a razor sharp entry... 2 positions open... if not so good, diversify, lock profit of half the position, trail stop for the remaining to BE...

let's go back to basic... i'm still learning.

regards,
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #3,104
  • Oct 1, 2010 9:04am Oct 1, 2010 9:04am
Quoting VEEFX
Price just hit my SL. Makes me wonder if I have got this strategy all messed up in my head. Please raise your hand if anyone had one successful TP since the start of this project
My only legs this week got taken out at b.e. after bernanke spoke, but mind you I'm not trading 200 m.a. crosses. No survivors this week for me.
  • #3,105
  • Oct 1, 2010 10:10am Oct 1, 2010 10:10am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi All,

Here's my pair for tonight. I keep coming back to this pair hoping it will break down. My analysis and anticipation in the attached chart

Hindsight: Short on monthly, weekly, daily, H4 and H1.
Anticipation: It will eventually cut thru the support line (after a more painful range)
entry level: Will look to go short below 2.1284 level depending of price action at the time.

Attachment
Update: No trade opportunities on this pair yet.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #3,106
  • Oct 1, 2010 10:11am Oct 1, 2010 10:11am
Looking at the GBPCHF setup to go long for one leg. Weekly chart shows price action is at the bottom channel. My buy area is around 1.5410-30 area with stop around 1.5380 for a target price of 1.63 for this leg... I will open up more legs looking to let price action reach 1.95 area longer term...

R/R is very nice if this is the start of a new med./long-term trend... If I am wrong well I lose very little in pips vs what I can make long-term....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Daily GBPCHF OCT1.jpg Size: 141 KB
Traderdesk -
  • #3,107
  • Oct 1, 2010 10:34am Oct 1, 2010 10:34am
Quoting VEEFX
Price just hit my SL. Makes me wonder if I have got this strategy all messed up in my head. Please raise your hand if anyone had one successful TP since the start of this project

Like Graeme says, go with the big picture - the main trend. If the weekly trend shows up - buy up. If it shows down - sell. What is today's high can be tommorrows low.

I am TOTALLY excited about this! I've got it! My sincere thanks to Graeme for sharing this! I've already taken this live and have multiple legs growing! I put this on a small account and the trades after a day or two are starting to grow like crazy!!!

My demo experiments at first had me worried because nothing was "sticking". I realized I was putting my stops in too soon. I remembered a day trading strategy I used a long time ago that required the stops be put where the SAR says to on the DAY CHART. This is very often way more than 10 pips. That can be scary if you are playing to big a position, but the reward can be INFINITE!!!!!!!!! I know because I am finally experiencing holding trades longer than a day! If you read from the very beginning, Graeme said he didnt use stops - later he adds them for the safety of the readers.

Many of my positions that are now over 100+ pips were +20 pips when I went to bed but when I woke up they were -10 pips. An hour later they were +30. The first day, the ones that stuck were +.01% of my capital. The next day +.05%. Now it is growing EXPONENTIALLY! One trade that had at one hour become -1200 is now +11,000!!!!!!!

If we can just get away from the "current price movement" - we're good!

I can see this getting us kicked out of a lot of brokerage houses for this strategy. Seriously, this kind of profit at a casino will get you kicked out and asked to never return. Doing this to a forex broker - can you imagine what they would do if all us were in together and tried to cash out at the same time? They only have to have like what --5m? in assets???

So check out my charts! yesterdays floating profit of $67k turned into 112K by this morning! My 10K account is in profit now also! I'm SOOOOO jazzed!!!


God Bless You Graeme! I pray you get well soon!!!
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  • #3,108
  • Oct 1, 2010 10:43am Oct 1, 2010 10:43am
Quoting kcravey
Like Graeme says, go with the big picture - the main trend. If the weekly trend shows up - buy up. If it shows down - sell. What is today's high can be tommorrows low.

I am TOTALLY excited about this! I've got it! My sincere thanks to Graeme for sharing this! I've already taken this live and have multiple legs growing! I put this on a small account and the trades after a day or two are starting to grow like crazy!!!

My demo experiments at first had me worried because nothing was "sticking". I realized I was putting my stops in too soon....
Were is the sar zone you speak of please?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #3,109
  • Oct 1, 2010 10:50am Oct 1, 2010 10:50am
Quoting kcravey
Like Graeme says, go with the big picture - the main trend. If the weekly trend shows up - buy up. If it shows down - sell. What is today's high can be tommorrows low.

Nice!!! Funny you should post this now. Just this morning I was looking at the weekly charts of pairs that have been in a multi-week trend (e.g., AUDCAD, AUDNZD, AUDUSD, EURCAD, EURUSD, ...) and thinking that if I had entered with the trend at the beginning of the week (sloppy!!!), those positions would be well into profit right now. I'm definitely going to try some experimentation with this when the new trading week opens Sunday/Monday.

Kevin
  • #3,110
  • Edited 11:12am Oct 1, 2010 10:57am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Nice!!! Funny you should post this now. Just this morning I was looking at the weekly charts of pairs that have been in a multi-week trend (e.g., AUDCAD, AUDNZD, AUDUSD, EURCAD, EURUSD, ...) and thinking that if I had entered with the trend at the beginning of the week (sloppy!!!), those positions would be well into profit right now. I'm definitely going to try some experimentation with this when the new trading week opens Sunday/Monday.

Kevin
Me too been thinking enter with minimum position on daily a position that can take the daily range without hurting too much if the trend suddenly changes?

140 pip range on micro = $14.00 for monthly range of 750 pips $75 per micro

Instead of stops. you can use lot size to control risk

say 1 mini=your desired position size. split into micros

that gives you 10 micros to play with cause stops are a pain.

just my thoughts same as you kevin just want to get in with minimal risk.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #3,111
  • Oct 1, 2010 11:10am Oct 1, 2010 11:10am
Quoting Starvin4Pips
Nice!!! Funny you should post this now. Just this morning I was looking at the weekly charts of pairs that have been in a multi-week trend (e.g., AUDCAD, AUDNZD, AUDUSD, EURCAD, EURUSD, ...) and thinking that if I had entered with the trend at the beginning of the week (sloppy!!!), those positions would be well into profit right now. I'm definitely going to try some experimentation with this when the new trading week opens Sunday/Monday.

Kevin

Kevin - that is EXACTLY what I always thought! I always thought I was too late to catch the trend and would always try to catch the retracement or the trend changing down. That was my problem! But Graeme says over and over --- you are never too late, you are always early. He also said, "If its going up - BUY, if its going down - SELL"

Well thats so simple its obvious -isnt it? ha ha - not for me! I'd see an up trend and think RETRACE. It took seeing that over and over to get it. So now I'm seeing the tops - waiting for the retracement and getting in. Before I was selling with the retracement and then getting stopped out by my trail stops! No more! All my EurUsd entries were tops - heck, all of these positions were the top at the time of entries. But they all had good solid long term trends going so I got on the train to catch the end of the ride. Graeme says to just participate - so I did! At first, (since it was a demo), I was just entering based on the day trend - not even zooming in to see where it was. Those are still there to this day and when I did zoom in later I was shocked to see I had entered at the peak of that hours movement!

I'll start putting some stops in soon - most of the trends are at historic highs now. Then those that close can be used to replenish capital and start some new legs/pip soldiers to battle for me!!


and SAR --- it is a free indicator with the MT4. Its the Parabolic Stop And REVerse indicator. It puts dots over the positions to show you where to place your stops. It also shows you the direction of the trend. When the position is stopped out by the SAR then you reverse your position. I think it has like a 60% success rate if you just were to follow that indicator alone. It also gives you a good idea of ideally how far your stop should be for a day chart.


----watching my legs grow - its more exciting than any tv show!!!
  • #3,112
  • Oct 1, 2010 11:15am Oct 1, 2010 11:15am
Thankyou for your reply to my question .
And
----watching my legs grow - its more exciting than any tv show!!! http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../moneyeyes.gif
__________________
it rhymes too lol
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #3,113
  • Oct 1, 2010 12:05pm Oct 1, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting VEEFX
Price just hit my SL. Makes me wonder if I have got this strategy all messed up in my head. Please raise your hand if anyone had one successful TP since the start of this project

Vee,

Today I closed my first (ever!) leg for 1000 pips.
It's a small position though and I opened it after reading Graeme and just left it.

I closed at 1018 pips this morning. But had I left it, this would have been 1125 pips by now. This says something about millipede strategy.

Regards,
TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #3,114
  • Oct 1, 2010 12:08pm Oct 1, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting paul1
Me too been thinking enter with minimum position on daily a position that can take the daily range without hurting too much if the trend suddenly changes?

140 pip range on micro = $14.00 for monthly range of 750 pips $75 per micro

Instead of stops. you can use lot size to control risk

say 1 mini=your desired position size. split into micros

that gives you 10 micros to play with cause stops are a pain.

just my thoughts same as you kevin just want to get in with minimal risk.
I'm glad to see some others speak up with this perspective. I follow the daily chart and basically just follow the day's direction at the close if it is going with the trend. I'm still experimenting with going with the day's direction even if opposite to the trend. But this is only possible if the sizing is relatively small. I use micro lots with 100 pip SL. This is the same as a 10 pip SL relative to what most here are doing. This way I can afford to find out if I'm right. If I get stopped out, no big deal. About $10. If not, then I keep going as the price goes.

End of the next day, if it moved into profit, I add another micro. Same for the next. As the price moves another 100 pips or spends a complete day above my entry I move to BE. If price retraces I get one SL at most. If it retraces enough to take out a BE as well, then I consider taking a couple positions of profit. But I keep the longest term positions in case the price moves back in the direction of the trend.

But the big thing is I don't have to worry about being right. The market will let me know that by taking my position into profit or closing it on SL. Then I just follow along accordingly. But we can't do this if we are afraid of getting stopped out. Then we are worried constantly about being right and forecasting. I'm trying to embrace the reality that WE DON"T KNOW what will happen.

I'm not claiming to be an expert or that I'm making oodles of cash. I'm still testing this, but the results so far resemble Graeme's. Just with fewer 0s. (micro lots vs. full lots) But it is a way that we can do this without a huge account. We can be small enough to be in, participate, without fear of being wrong. If you are wrong you get out. But with 10 or 20 pip stops you can't know if you are right or wrong. It is just too little distance. You are right but the normal fluctuations take you out. It seems to me that is how the "big time" traders do it. They just have million dollar accounts so standard lot sizes are small to them.

I think Graeme is able to make it work because he has developed a feel for the price movement. He jumps on a breakout and gets off if he feels it's not going his way. But he did say early on (I just happened to re-read this
morning) that we should practice taking small losses on the short time-frame to get used to it. Then we could take proportionately larger losses on the longer time-frame and be OK. And then we would be able to get proportionately larger profits on the longer time-frame.

I'm now starting to test this basic approach with the .00 entry. It would simplify things even more. At the end of the day take the day's direction and place an order at the next .00 in that direction. Price tends to continue in the same direction. Obviously not always, but enough. SL at the last .00, for 100 pips. Then if price takes the order do the same the next day. When it moves to the next .00 and triggers an additional lot, previous one move to BE. This spreads things out to one per day and one per 100 pips. So they aren't too close together.

Just some ideas to consider. I think a lot of the SLs are because they are too close. My personal feeling is the trend really exists on the daily. So it shows up on the weekly as well. But there is a lot of jockeying around during the day to shake people out. Just my perspective. Thanks.

Michael
  • #3,115
  • Oct 1, 2010 12:27pm Oct 1, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting paul1
Me too been thinking enter with minimum position on daily a position that can take the daily range without hurting too much if the trend suddenly changes?

140 pip range on micro = $14.00 for monthly range of 750 pips $75 per micro

Instead of stops. you can use lot size to control risk

say 1 mini=your desired position size. split into micros

that gives you 10 micros to play with cause stops are a pain.

just my thoughts same as you kevin just want to get in with minimal risk.
I like this MM idea.......still, you have to get out at some point. maybe rr is 150 pips and then an increase...dont' know.
  • #3,116
  • Oct 1, 2010 12:31pm Oct 1, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting qwerty00
My only legs this week got taken out at b.e. after bernanke spoke, but mind you I'm not trading 200 m.a. crosses. No survivors this week for me.
If one had traded the EUR/USD for the last weeks at the open of London Session while looking out for small risk entries there is no way that there is no position that isn't hundrets of pips in the postive.

I also think that this thread is drifting away. You can sum it all up with
Participation, Low Risk, Infinite Yield and Growth that's all you need. No need to overcomplicate things. Find a way to enter on small timeframe with 5-15 Pips Stoploss take the underlying Weekly/Monthly Trend as hindsight and you are good to go.
  • #3,117
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:02pm Oct 1, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting TJPLD
If one had traded the EUR/USD for the last weeks at the open of London Session while looking out for small risk entries there is no way that there is no position that isn't hundrets of pips in the postive.

I also think that this thread is drifting away. You can sum it all up with
Participation, Low Risk, Infinite Yield and Growth that's all you need. No need to overcomplicate things. Find a way to enter on small timeframe with 5-15 Pips Stoploss take the underlying Weekly/Monthly Trend as hindsight and you are good to go.
Oh how I wish it was less complicated Even on beautiful weekly trends like AUDUSD, there may be a window of only 20-40 pips where an entry occurs that is not re-tested later in the week. Asleep during that time and your out of luck. That window can be awfully tight and easy to miss. This is the type frustration that comes with tight stops on weekly trends.
  • #3,118
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:11pm Oct 1, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting qwerty00
Oh how I wish it was less complicated Even on beautiful weekly trends like AUDUSD, there may be a window of only 20-40 pips where an entry occurs that is not re-tested later in the week. Asleep during that time and your out of luck. That window can be awfully tight and easy to miss. This is the type frustration that comes with tight stops on weekly trends.
Beeing asleep during London Session definately is a problem. I found out that in the first hours of London (8-11 Central European Time) a significat low or high will be made 70% of the time on GBPUSD and EURUSD. Meaning that either the high or the low during that session will survive the next 24 hours with a 70% Chance. I tested this over 10 Years. That's what I'm trying to catch every day. Today only 6 Pips Risk (Small Flying Buddah Pinbar on M5 really early in the session) 138 Pips Reward.
  • #3,119
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:02pm Oct 1, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting kcravey
Like Graeme says, go with the big picture - the main trend. If the weekly trend shows up - buy up. If it shows down - sell. What is today's high can be tommorrows low.
!!
Hi Kevin,
Just wondering where u place the stop when the PSAR point is on the opposite side of your trade?
  • #3,120
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:17pm Oct 1, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting VEEFX
Update: No trade opportunities on this pair yet.
Dang it! Missed this spike down in the direction of my anticipation. Anyone trading on their smartphone? I think it is a must for any breakout strategy !
Attached Image


EDIT: I could still get in on M15 as PA looks good but decided no trades for today as it is approaching Friday close and spread is 15+ pips at the moment for this pair.
Staying in my lane...
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