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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #257,501
  • Sep 30, 2010 10:59am Sep 30, 2010 10:59am
Quoting bbmac

The 5min was the trigger for me for an entry long at the bottom and it had some supporting tech confluennce on 15min in respect of the patterns or component parts I lookm for and that are part of my overall trading edge.

L

IT was, and we had a little triple bottom on the M1 coupled with a rejection of resistance on EG.

You are right the more confluence there is with the larger TF's the more important the levels become.

A big problem the "newer" traders have is that they don't act on a trigger, but wait for confirmation then get jumpy when the confirmation retests the trigger.

If you act on the trigger without too much tought, your chances of success exponentially increase over time.

It is a fine balance between having the patience to wait and getting in at the right time.
  • #257,502
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:00am Sep 30, 2010 11:00am
Thanks all! Yet again, it has been an education!

My head is spinning - cable has had quite a day!

Off for the evening and some yoga!
  • #257,503
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:01am Sep 30, 2010 11:01am
Quoting cloggie
I have been in since 5701, the first level was the start of the train and I am not going to ignore that after I posted it here.

5716 was not going to stop it with those momentum bars right below it, same here with 5744.

Don't just look at the price once a level is reached, look at the price on the way to it, that tells you more then the price once it reaches.

All my levels will give some resistance so I expect price to slow down, that is not the indication I am looking for, I am looking at the price in the runup to the level.
Ahhh, early entry is the key. Looking at the 5M PA there's no way I could have got myself in at 5701. Was that a case on intuition or was there a clue in the patterns?

I see the M5 IB sitting right on the Daily S2 level and I might have considered entry on the break of that....BUT....that would have taken me straight into the weekly pivot. I think I'm a world away from the way you think.
  • #257,504
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:04am Sep 30, 2010 11:04am
Quoting Sutts
Ahhh, early entry is the key. Looking at the 5M PA there's no way I could have got myself in at 5701. Was that a case on intuition or was there a clue in the patterns?

I see the M5 IB sitting right on the Daily S2 level and I might have considered entry on the break of that....BUT....that would have taken me straight into the weekly pivot. I think I'm a world away from the way you think.

Triple bottom on M1, lovely wick rejections on M5, drop on EG, it did not take much to take the plunge there.

Further move is dependent on 8636 on EG here.
  • #257,505
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:04am Sep 30, 2010 11:04am
Quoting Sutts
Ahhh, early entry is the key. Looking at the 5M PA there's no way I could have got myself in at 5701. Was that a case on intuition or was there a clue in the patterns?

I see the M5 IB sitting right on the Daily S2 level and I might have considered entry on the break of that....BUT....that would have taken me straight into the weekly pivot. I think I'm a world away from the way you think.
Sutts - me too. Hesitant and waiting for confirmation after confirmation by which point most of the move has gone!

We will get there! We are building knowledge every day. Keep the faith!
  • #257,506
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:05am Sep 30, 2010 11:05am
Alright ladies and gents, she's settled down now and heading in the right direction.

Been a hell of a session.

Time for me to catch some ZZZ's

Later
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #257,507
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:06am Sep 30, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Bull_Bear
Alright ladies and gents, she's settled down now and heading in the right direction.

Been a hell of a session.

Time for me to catch some ZZZ's

Later
good trading buddy..
  • #257,508
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:07am Sep 30, 2010 11:07am
Quoting cloggie

A big problem the "newer" traders have is that they don't act on a trigger, but wait for confirmation then get jumpy when the confirmation retests the trigger.

If you act on the trigger without too much tought, your chances of success exponentially increase over time.

Yes. This is exactly my problem. But you can't suddenly acquire instinct, I guess that's where the 10,000 screen hours comes in. Oh, and help from you very gracious people here.
  • #257,509
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:07am Sep 30, 2010 11:07am
Quoting chazzle
Cable going mental today..all TP hit before the drop..pendings left open and closed during the day for profit...just had long from 15700 and closed for 40.
Lots of pips and I didn't even short once,lol
Nice trade, I have one open from 1.5710. Should have closed at 1.5745, I hope we can get back up to 1.5770!
  • #257,510
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:08am Sep 30, 2010 11:08am
http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/7782/gu8h.jpg

Touched second standard deviation and oopppsss here we rocknrolla down the hill....
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #257,511
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:10am Sep 30, 2010 11:10am
Quoting Delite
Yes. This is exactly my problem. But you can't suddenly acquire instinct, I guess that's where the 10,000 screen hours comes in. Oh, and help from you very gracious people here.

This helps too. This is my "small" trading room. Having multiple screens makes looking at different TF's and correlation a lot easier to do.

My large trading room has 14 screens and a Bloomy terminal. Both trading rooms have dual plasma's for watching the news.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1282915956
  • #257,512
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:11am Sep 30, 2010 11:11am
Quoting uksnowman
Nice trade, I have one open from 1.5710. Should have closed at 1.5745, I hope we can get back up to 1.5770!
I would be cautious going long now while price is below 200 ema 1HR
  • #257,513
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:12am Sep 30, 2010 11:12am
Quoting chazzle
I would be cautious going long now while price is below 200 ema 1HR

I covered my long of the bottom here, Now watching how 5716 behaves.

London is closed, a runup to 5744 will open the way to 5777, a rejection of it and we will range here for a bit.
  • #257,514
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:13am Sep 30, 2010 11:13am
Quoting cloggie
This helps too. This is my "small" trading room. Having multiple screens makes looking at different TF's and correlation a lot easier to do.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1282915956

Woah! That setup will seriously tangle with your brain unless you really know what you are doing!

Once again, Cloggie, many thanks for your patience.

edit - having just read your added comments, I can quite honestly say I feel such an amateur!
  • #257,515
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:16am Sep 30, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Delite
Woah! That setup will seriously tangle with your brain unless you really know what you are doing!

Once again, Cloggie, many thanks for your patience.

edit - having just read your added comments, I can quite honestly say I feel such an amateur!

This is a business and with any business it takes time and investment to do this right. I run my systems of Z600's with a SQL server for datafeeds. This is what I do for a living so it is a bit different from most retail traders using a laptop.
  • #257,516
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:17am Sep 30, 2010 11:17am
I'm a little confused Cloggie.

The preplanned levels on Pivot Levels, Fibs etc I get.One minute you are saying you trade off 15 minTFand momentum plus patterns and PA doesnt matter (fair enough) but the next post refers to trigger signals on 5 min and 1 min TF.

Price didn't actually reach the 1.5786 target in your train but stopped at the Daily S2 1.5696.When this happens you still count this as a valid step up even though the level didnt get tested ?

Thanks

V
  • #257,517
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:18am Sep 30, 2010 11:18am
Quoting cloggie
This is a business and with any business it takes time and investment to do this right. I run my systems of Z600's with a SQL server for datafeeds. This is what I do for a living so it is a bit different from most retail traders using a laptop.

I am guessing you used to work for one of the big boys in the past? What encourage you to make the leap to self-employed?
  • #257,518
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:20am Sep 30, 2010 11:20am
Quoting Villonius
I'm a little confused Cloggie.

The preplanned levels on Pivot Levels, Fibs etc I get.One minute you are saying you trade off 15 minTFand momentum plus patterns and PA doesnt matter (fair enough) but the next post refers to trigger signals on 5 min and 1 min TF.

Price didn't actually reach the 1.5786 target in your train but stopped at the Daily S2 1.5696.When this happens you still count this as a valid step up even though the level didnt get tested ?

Thanks

V

I look at the whole picture when it comes to entries and a triple bottom on the M1 can't just be discounted. Yes the S2 held it from reaching my ultimate level of 5686 and as it was so clearly rejected on all sub M15 TF's I just reset my entry point. I initially never thought we could even get to 5686 and only added as a failure of 5716 to continue as an alternate means of my original plan.

The plan has to remain fluid when the PA dictates it.
  • #257,519
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:20am Sep 30, 2010 11:20am
Quoting cloggie
Triple bottom on M1, lovely wick rejections on M5, drop on EG, it did not take much to take the plunge there.

Further move is dependent on 8636 on EG here.

Thanks Cloggie, I'm saving all this stuff and will review and review until I get it right.

I feel a bit of a fool today....made pips...gave it back!

I identified the diamond on the H4 and went long off the PA on the retest. So far so good. Price shot up and was backed up with the surge in oil and gold putting in a new high. My stock indexes showed promise too.

I held on through 1.59 and based on the above fully expected at least 1.5940 to be reached (1.618 extension and point D of what I think was a bearish butterfly).

I ignored the touch of daily R2 and let it come back on me until I exited with only 24 pips based on bear momentum and subsequent rejection PA under the 1.59 level on the M5.

I then let it unwind a bit and got back in at 5874 for the next leg up as oil, gold and stocks were giving me confidence. Unfortunately I couldn't watch this and set my stop and left.

BIG MISTAKE....gave back most of what little I made in the morning. So..firstly I let 60 odd pips slip down to 24. Then I made too much of rallies in other markets and didn't baby sit my position.

Will I ever learn.
  • #257,520
  • Sep 30, 2010 11:21am Sep 30, 2010 11:21am
Quoting Delite
I am guessing you used to work for one of the big boys in the past? What encourage you to make the leap to self-employed?

Freedom.
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