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  • #321
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:06pm Sep 29, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting Four Kids
Hi Dan, great helpful thread you have here, and you are very relaxed in your approach, which is good for the people who join in.

On the eu chart you entered off the s/star at 1.3800. Why did you not enter at the big bearish bar a few days earlier ( white arrow )?

It was off the 1.3800 RN, S/R, it engulfed the previous ten days price movement, to me it indicated a very strong resumption of trend, but it wasn't. It quickly went back to 1.3800.

So how do you decide which PA's to take and which to leave?
Hey, im still new at this but my guess is that the bearish bar is not one of Dan's 'triggers'/PA. but the Shooting Star/Pin bar is. Also price tends to retest major S/R levels after it has broken though. To me the bearish bar doesnt really indicate a potential trade. On my chart that bearish bar's body does not engulf the previous bar. Again, im still new at this so you should wait for Dan to reply with his thoughts.
  • #322
  • Sep 29, 2010 6:10pm Sep 29, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting dan89
Hey, im still new at this but my guess is that the bearish bar is not one of Dan's 'triggers'/PA. but the Shooting Star/Pin bar is. Also price tends to retest major S/R levels after it has broken though. To me the bearish bar doesnt really indicate a potential trade. On my chart that bearish bar's body does not engulf the previous bar. Again, im still new at this so you should wait for Dan to reply with his thoughts.

Yeah good points, but price had broken thru a few days earlier, and retraced to the s/r level, so that bearish bar was a continuation after a break- thru and pull-back.

On Dan's chart that bearish bar not only engulfs the previous bar but most of the previous ten days bars.

As for trigger pa's, yeah I to don't know what Dan look's for either, that's why I'm asking.

Thanks for your help. After all the shit flying around FF, it is nice to be part of a friendly helpful thread.
  • #323
  • Sep 29, 2010 8:11pm Sep 29, 2010 8:11pm
Great thread and thanks for your thoughtful and patient input and coaching. Hope your son is better. What part of the UK do you hail from (I'm English but resident in Brisbane Australia now). Earlier on you answered a more philosophical question by saying (in essence) you had gained a lot from this site and you wanted to give back. I was wondering if you wouldn't mind sharing some of the chaps who helped you to come to this style of trading (and as always you have of course added your own nuances for which we are grateful).

Alex
  • #324
  • Sep 29, 2010 8:25pm Sep 29, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi goldenFishie,

That's ok... noob questions are welcome!

It is very easy to get confused as to which trend to follow... which is where I try and keep my trading very simple and base it on my analysis of the daily charts (although I use weekly/monthly for s/r levels etc).

In an uptrend the daily chart should show a pretty obvious set of higher highs and higher lows. In a downtrend the daily chart should show a pretty obvious set of lower highs and lower lows. If the chart you are looking at doesn't really stand out to you move on to something...
thanks for ur answer, dan. I also thought of maybe juz stay aside until i see a clearer trend in GU..Well, there are so many pairs out there...

another question please...if the price retrace back to the level u r waiting for..would u juz enter the trade at that level or u wait for a confirmed candle & enter at a price which is slightly higher or lower than the level?

cheers...& have a nice day...
  • #325
  • Sep 30, 2010 5:24am Sep 30, 2010 5:24am
Dan,

May I ask u ur opinion about this eurchf pair?

the weekly shows that the trend is currently down while the daily too giving the same info. Would u consider to short it if an inside bar (or any of the confirmed candle) form around that 50% fib area tomorrow?

cheers...

regards,
goldenfishie
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: echf weekly 30 sept.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: echf daily 30 sept.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #326
  • Edited 7:21am Sep 30, 2010 6:57am | Edited 7:21am
Hi Goldenfishie - sure looks like a high probability trade to me. Trend is definitely down, I have S/R at around 1.33 and that fib is being hit on the button. My only concern would be that price hasn't reached the trendline yet. I will be looking for appropriate PA before considering an entry. Also price seems to be undecided which way to go at present. See what Dan thinks...

Cheers, G

Quoting goldenFishie
Dan,

May I ask u ur opinion about this eurchf pair?

the weekly shows that the trend is currently down while the daily too giving the same info. Would u consider to short it if an inside bar (or any of the confirmed candle) form around that 50% fib area tomorrow?

cheers...

regards,
goldenfishie
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #327
  • Sep 30, 2010 7:18am Sep 30, 2010 7:18am
hi gododdin,

ur concern is as good as mine...i juz worry if the price isn't ready to fall yet.

I juz found that 1.33 could be a level that hold some weight as the price retested it for several times. pls c the chart below...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: echf2 daily 30 sept.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #328
  • Sep 30, 2010 7:48am Sep 30, 2010 7:48am
Quoting goldenFishie
hi gododdin,

ur concern is as good as mine...i juz worry if the price isn't ready to fall yet.

I juz found that 1.33 could be a level that hold some weight as the price retested it for several times. pls c the chart below...
Hi guys,

Just a quick reply about the EUR/CHF (will do other replies later today)... whilst I do believe we are at an area of interest, price so far hasn't given me any indication that it is heading back down. I wouldn't be surprised if price moved up from here but I will watch for price to signal what it might be doing (by way of candlestick setup).

Regards,

Dan
  • #329
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:57am Sep 30, 2010 8:57am
On the other hand this can be regarded as a new bull trend making HHs/HLs as shown on the attached chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.gif Size: 22 KB
Regards
  • #330
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:17am Sep 30, 2010 9:17am
Dan can you help me with determining when a trade is forming, what i mean is from an area of consolidation when do you decide this will start trending now so i will enter on a pull back.
I have attached a chart to show what i mean.
usdcad was consolidating in the blue box then started trending, what would have made you enter?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #331
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:39am Sep 30, 2010 9:39am
Dan what do you think of a possible long at 1.3850 area? Possibly the start of a bull trend????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ec.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #332
  • Sep 30, 2010 10:24am Sep 30, 2010 10:24am
Quoting bez3000
Dan what do you think of a possible long at 1.3850 area? Possibly the start of a bull trend????

Hi Bez,

In my opinion I would say a safer more discounted price would be a retest of the previous resistance between 1.3650-1.3700.
  • #333
  • Sep 30, 2010 12:54pm Sep 30, 2010 12:54pm
Hey Dan, i know you get a lot of questions but i was wondering if you could post the pairs that you are currently looking at that are at 'areas of interest' or near areas of interest without actually posting the chart. Just post the names e.g. NZD/USD. That way i can test myself and see if i can get to the same conclusion as you. ?

Dan
  • #334
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:10pm Sep 30, 2010 8:10pm
Hi Dan,

Newbie here. Apologies if already asked. I hear a lot of traders say risk no more than 2-2.5% max on anyone trade. So, If I were to risk 2% of my acct per trade, that would mean approx $100 risk per $5,000 , $200 risk per $10,000 in Acct size etc . As an example, if I put my SL just beyond a pin Bar and its $80 away, and im trading a mini acct with 10K that would mean trading up to a max of 3 lots ($240)for that one trade? Is that how you look at your initial SL? Thanks in advance.
  • #335
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:15am Oct 1, 2010 2:15am
Hi Sjr
That is pretty much the way I do it and from what I understand Dan is similar. Let's say there is an uptrend and a nice retracement to 50% of the last upswing, followed by an outside bar. I place my buy order 12 pips above the high of the OB with a stop loss 12 pips below the low of the OB. I'm then able to calculate the size of position I can afford. Personally I don't go over 2% so in your case £240 would be a touch too steep for me but others trade 3, 4 or even 5% per trade! I trade with Oanda so I'm able to tailor it pretty much exactly to 2% each time rather than thinking in lots. Keeping to the low percentage will keep you in the game a lot longer whilst you are learning.

Hope that helps. By the way the figure of 12 pips has helped me a couple of times when price has come back to 10 or 11 pips below the low. I don't know if this is coincidence or 'stop hunting' but I offer it for what it's worth.

Cheers, G
Quoting Sjr
Hi Dan,

Newbie here. Apologies if already asked. I hear a lot of traders say risk no more than 2-2.5% max on anyone trade. So, If I were to risk 2% of my acct per trade, that would mean approx $100 risk per $5,000 , $200 risk per $10,000 in Acct size etc . As an example, if I put my SL just beyond a pin Bar and its $80 away, and im trading a mini acct with 10K that would mean trading up to a max of 3 lots ($240)for that one trade? Is that how you look at your initial SL? Thanks in advance.
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #336
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:41am Oct 1, 2010 3:41am
Hi Dan,

Please can you review the attached weekly charts and tell me if I'm plotting the areas on interest correctly? Are there any you would have missed of or are they any that I've missed off?

Thank you,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd w.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf w.gif Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd w.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd w.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy w.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #337
  • Oct 2, 2010 3:52am Oct 2, 2010 3:52am
Quoting dan89
Hey Dan, i just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to respond to all the individual posts. Its really helping out the newbies like myself. Thanks
Hi dan89,

Good to know, thank you!

Regards,

Dan
  • #338
  • Oct 2, 2010 4:04am Oct 2, 2010 4:04am
Quoting Four Kids
Hi Dan, great helpful thread you have here, and you are very relaxed in your approach, which is good for the people who join in.

On the eu chart you entered off the s/star at 1.3800. Why did you not enter at the big bearish bar a few days earlier ( white arrow )?

It was off the 1.3800 RN, S/R, it engulfed the previous ten days price movement, to me it indicated a very strong resumption of trend, but it wasn't. It quickly went back to 1.3800.

So how do you decide which PA's to take and which to leave?
Hi Four Kids,

On my feed that bar wasn't a bearish engulfing bar or a bearish outside bar. Also, rather than being short from a swing high, you would have been short near the low (indicated by the small blue line on my chart). This means you wouldn't have far to run before the trade came into potential trouble. However, if I had taken that trade I would have moved to breakeven once price stalled at the next s/r zone (indicated by the thick blue line on my chart).

The trade I did eventually take was right at the high of that congestion area that developed over those couple of weeks and had more breathing room - which gives the trade a higher chance of success.

Hope that clears things up!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #339
  • Oct 2, 2010 4:43am Oct 2, 2010 4:43am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Four Kids,

On my feed that bar wasn't a bearish engulfing bar or a bearish outside bar. Also, rather than being short from a swing high, you would have been short near the low (indicated by the small blue line on my chart). This means you wouldn't have far to run before the trade came into potential trouble. However, if I had taken that trade I would have moved to breakeven once price stalled at the next s/r zone (indicated by the thick blue line on my chart).

The trade I did eventually take was right...
Yeah, that clears it up, Thanks.
  • #340
  • Oct 2, 2010 6:02am Oct 2, 2010 6:02am
hey DanUK....nice going. Just a request, could you please elaborate on this with some 3 or 4 charts, i have gone through the thread and i think this is one of the most important parts, for me that is, obviously with money management.........cheers...........and nice weekend all..........

Quoting DanUK
Hi gododdin,

It is the break of the most recent lower high (in a down trend) that confirms the change of direction (as per amended attachment).

However this does not yet involve key s/r levels... I am also looking at the key levels (that you and I discussed in some earlier posts) to gauge whether or not the trend is changing - this is perhaps the most important test.

[color=black][font=Verdana]If for example the most recent lower high breaks just...
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