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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #301
  • Sep 29, 2010 8:44am Sep 29, 2010 8:44am
Quoting gododdin
Hi Bez - I'm far from being an expert, but those levels mostly match my own. I was fortunate in getting into the AUD/CAD on the previous (7 Sept) pullback so I'm waiting for a retrace any day now. If it goes back to the level you have marked or thereabouts I will be looking to add to my position based on PA at that level. No doubt Dan will have more to say.

Cheers, G
I think a retrace to the .9800 level will be likley before a bounce up.What do you guys think ?

Weekly
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Daily
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  • #302
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:22am Sep 29, 2010 9:22am
Possibly but i will be in slightly higher around .9850 i think as this is the area price stalled on its way up.

Quoting dan89
I think a retrace to the .9800 level will be likley before a bounce up.What do you guys think ?

Weekly
Attachment

Daily
Attachment
  • #303
  • Sep 29, 2010 9:33am Sep 29, 2010 9:33am
Quoting dan89
I think a retrace to the .9800 level will be likely before a bounce up.What do you guys think ?
Yes Dan89, Bez marked 9876 I think, and I guess you could either round that up or down. On my charts, having looked at the monthly, weekly and daily, I chose to round it down to 9800 which is exactly as you say. Remember that these are areas anyway so I will be looking for a retracement to that general location.
Cheers, G
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #304
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:12am Sep 29, 2010 11:12am
Hi Dan,

Just a quick question, in your previous thread you seemed to be more interested in a trade if it pulled back to at least the 50% fib level although on a few of your examples you show entries that don't seem to even pull back to the 38%. Does this mean that you are now less interested in the fib levels and more interested in Support and resistance or have I misunderstood something?

Other than that I have read the thread a few times and it all seemts to be really logical, the only remaining questions I have are to do with your exits.

When you have time do you think you could go over your trade management a bit more? When you move your stop to be, how you progress your stop during the life of the trade etc?

Thanks again for all of your help!
  • #305
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:06pm Sep 29, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Dan,

The additional positions you took, I have circled the ones which I think you took - are these correct?

Thanks,
Hi,

Good eye! There was one more daily position though that I took from a shooting star off s/r in the 1.3800 area as shown in my attached chart. All pretty simple/obvious trades right!?

Also, that final position you circled I actually took from a lower time frame which is why I haven't mentioned it here (trying to keep to dailies for the moment).

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #306
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:10pm Sep 29, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Dan are we at an area of interest on GBPUSD?

Daily S+R + 0.786 Fib + Trendline
Hi Pirabuji,

Yes this is definitely a strong area on G/U. My personal preference though would be to see price get above this level and then come back to retest it and fail... sending price higher (which is where I would be buying).

Regards,

Dan
  • #307
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:12pm Sep 29, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting zoli
Hi Dan

Thank you for jumping in. I totally agree with you on your position on EU. It is like a stretched rope ready to regain some of its revious condition.

Yes, it can go further up but it is less risky to buy it on a pull back.

I really hope that your boy is getting better.

take care

Z
Hi Zol,

Thank you for your well wishes. He's getting better now thankfully... last couple of nights he's had me up a lot so I could do with a rest lol!

I thought we were going to get a pullback on the Euro to at least 1.3500 today - a place where I would have added, but it seems to be continuing up at the moment! Still, a retrace is due soon I should think!

Regards,

Dan
  • #308
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:17pm Sep 29, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting dan89
Hey Dan, First off i hope your son feels better soon, and second, i was just wondering what your total pips (roughly) was for last year ?. I know its not really important but i just want a general idea of how trend trading performs.
Hi dan89,

Thank you too for your kind words. Last year I wasn't trading with such long term goals, I was mainly trading off H4 charts and taking hundreds of pips at a time as opposed to thousands so it wouldn't really be suitable to compare that here. I did however keep a journal of my trades during 2009 here on Forex Factory so you can check out the results in my journal if you want.

Regards,

Dan
  • #309
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:23pm Sep 29, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Dan,

Thanks for your response but I'm still a little confused :S

Example in a downtrend if price rejects a key support area and forms a new higher higher would you consider the downtrend to be over? Or is it just your intuition?

On the recent EURGBP charts you have just posted, you have plotted fibs both ways, now price was mainly in a downtrend but has just made a new higher high, does this mean you will look for entries both sides and if you get a trigger bar which points in a direction you will take it? Or do you have a bias?

The AUDCAD...
Hi Pirabuji,

Your first question takes us into the slightly more advanced topic of counter trend trading which I would like to try and avoid for the moment. I would say however that yes, in these instances where the trend could be turning I do take positions in either direction so long as they are good signals at good locations. But for now I would prefer if we stick with taking trend based trades only.

Yes you are correct that A/C trade closed out at breakeven for me. I am glad to note though that a fellow trend trader who posts here is still in on that move.

Regards,

Dan
  • #310
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:25pm Sep 29, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting shotshell
True Dan. It would appear that my inquiry is moot now with the price having broken out over the 1.35 area fairly strongly.

Shotshell
Hi Shotshell,

It does seem that way. My chart really was just meant to highlight the many different possibilities and angles that could be taken - which is why I tend to follow the trend that is shown on the daily charts (in the formation of higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows) rather than trading the "possible" longer term reversals.

Regards,

Dan
  • #311
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:30pm Sep 29, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting goldenFishie
hi,

i'm new to this thread, juz finished reading the whole thread & wish to ask Dan how do we define whether the trend is UP or DOWN when it comes to the situation below?

For GU, the trend has been up, & then fall like hell, & now we can see that it's making higher high...so how would u define such situation? would u consider it as uptrend or downtrend?

sorry for the noob question...

happy always....


goldenfishie
Hi goldenFishie,

That's ok... noob questions are welcome!

It is very easy to get confused as to which trend to follow... which is where I try and keep my trading very simple and base it on my analysis of the daily charts (although I use weekly/monthly for s/r levels etc).

In an uptrend the daily chart should show a pretty obvious set of higher highs and higher lows. In a downtrend the daily chart should show a pretty obvious set of lower highs and lower lows. If the chart you are looking at doesn't really stand out to you move on to something that is clearer until you find it easier to understand.

If that explanation doesn't help let me know and I will post a chart instead!

Regards,

Dan

PS... I like your s/r levels!
  • #312
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:35pm Sep 29, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting gododdin
Hi Dan - I took the exact trade that you point out here and have since moved stop to BE - now waiting to see what happens and 'sitting on my hands' resisting the temptation to take 400+ pips.
Congratulations! I hope it makes it up past 1.0000 and continues upwards for you!

Although, the 1.0000 level holds strong psychological resistance and may prove hard to break though... if price stalls don't panic; just continue to analyze and take your time before you do anything with your trade! At worst you will come out at breakeven but hopefully you are sitting in on a bigger move upwards.

Regards,

Dan
  • #313
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:40pm Sep 29, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting bez3000
Dan can you give me your opinion on my charts below, i have marked possible entry areas with the arrows.
Hi bez3000,

These are all good looking charts... you seem to be searching out some very logical points to look for entries into the trend.

I think with regards to the EUR/USD I would also consider the possibility of 1.3500 and AUD/USD I would consider the possibility of 0.9500. The good thing though is that price will normally guide you with a good entry signal/trigger when it reaches the right level.

Keep up the good work!

Regards,

Dan
  • #314
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:42pm Sep 29, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting gododdin
Hi Bez - I'm far from being an expert, but those levels mostly match my own. I was fortunate in getting into the AUD/CAD on the previous (7 Sept) pullback so I'm waiting for a retrace any day now. If it goes back to the level you have marked or thereabouts I will be looking to add to my position based on PA at that level. No doubt Dan will have more to say.

Cheers, G
Good reply!
  • #315
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:45pm Sep 29, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting lite27
Dear Dan, where do you see the most rliable support in euro/usd pair where price probably would bounce after retracement? I try to find an enter point in the euro trend,but can not find. Thank you,
Hello lite27,

The most reliable place to enter is at key support and resistance levels (the horizontal lines that I plot).

The best way to locate these levels is to look at a weekly chart and pick the levels that really stand out.

If you need help with this I would be happy to guide you further but I would ask that you post a chart of what you have and then I can see where you are at.

Regards,

Dan
  • #316
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:48pm Sep 29, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting gododdin
Yes Dan89, Bez marked 9876 I think, and I guess you could either round that up or down. On my charts, having looked at the monthly, weekly and daily, I chose to round it down to 9800 which is exactly as you say. Remember that these are areas anyway so I will be looking for a retracement to that general location.
Cheers, G
Another good reply! This is what I would have answered had it not been already been said... it's an area to look for a signal - not a "to the pip" line.

This is where using candlestick patterns to enter off helps because it confirms the level for you... obviously you need to know where to be looking but no can no for sure exactly what will hold and what won't!

Regards,

Dan
  • #317
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:57pm Sep 29, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi Dan,
Quoting PipRiderFX

Just a quick question, in your previous thread you seemed to be more interested in a trade if it pulled back to at least the 50% fib level although on a few of your examples you show entries that don't seem to even pull back to the 38%. Does this mean that you are now less interested in the fib levels and more interested in Support and resistance or have I misunderstood something?

Other...


Hi PipRiderFX,

Getting a discount is still important to me and is the reason I still look at these levels but I have always said that when a key s/r level gets in the way of that it is the s/r level that takes precedence over the fib levels.

To be honest there is not a lot more I can say about my trade management. Generally speaking I try to be as relaxed as I can about my positions... once they are at breakeven I will sit back and allow the market to show me the way... at the point where I am adding to already successful trades I will look to move my earlier positions into profit but only as an exercise in disaster management as opposed to trade management. If for some reason I was unable to get to my charts and price was going wildly against me I would like to ensure that I take at least something out of the market.

But mostly I will keep the stops far enough away so they don't stop me out on the general swings that take place in the market. And I tend to close my positions out manually when I deem the trend to be changing.

That's about all there is to it - but if you do have anything in particular you would like to ask about trade management please feel free and I will do my best to elaborate.

Regards,

Dan
  • #318
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:14pm Sep 29, 2010 4:14pm
Hey Dan, i just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to respond to all the individual posts. Its really helping out the newbies like myself. Thanks
  • #319
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:19pm Sep 29, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

Good eye! There was one more daily position though that I took from a shooting star off s/r in the 1.3800 area as shown in my attached chart. All pretty simple/obvious trades right!?

Also, that final position you circled I actually took from a lower time frame which is why I haven't mentioned it here (trying to keep to dailies for the moment).

Regards,

Dan

Hi Dan, great helpful thread you have here, and you are very relaxed in your approach, which is good for the people who join in.

On the eu chart you entered off the s/star at 1.3800. Why did you not enter at the big bearish bar a few days earlier ( white arrow )?

It was off the 1.3800 RN, S/R, it engulfed the previous ten days price movement, to me it indicated a very strong resumption of trend, but it wasn't. It quickly went back to 1.3800.

So how do you decide which PA's to take and which to leave?
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  • #320
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:19pm Sep 29, 2010 4:19pm
Hi Dan,

Thanks for the answer. So let me try to summarize my understanding and you can tell me if it is right or not :-)

When you enter a trade your stop is located at the other side of the signal candle that got you in. So the extreme if you like.

Then you move your stop to break even once price reaches a level that could pose as an issue to break. You then generally leave your stop at break even until you get another entry signal at which point you may take the new entry and also move the stop from break even to where your new stop would be placed which one would assume again is at the extreme of the signal candle?

Finally you exit all positions when the trend changes? Is that all about right?

Thanks
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