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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #256,961
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:09am Sep 29, 2010 5:09am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I wonder if u ladies and gents see anything here??
Yup, I see price bouncing off the trendline I mentioned
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  • #256,962
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:10am Sep 29, 2010 5:10am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I wonder if u ladies and gents see anything here??

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xhqd2VXH_X...s400/forex.GIF
  • #256,963
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:10am Sep 29, 2010 5:10am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I wonder if u ladies and gents see anything here??
i'm seeing you've got lots of buys in profit !!
  • #256,964
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:13am Sep 29, 2010 5:13am
mr bear just weak up back.. need papa bear...
  • #256,965
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:14am Sep 29, 2010 5:14am
Quoting bbmac
I see an Intermediate expanding Triangle as explained below...it targets the fib extension zone of move 4-5

G/L

am i the only one seeing an inverse head n shoulder?? ofcourse this is why it is stalling here..not typically a head n shoulder but the idea is neckline break should yield a target towards 1.68-1.7
  • #256,966
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:14am Sep 29, 2010 5:14am
add short at 5812 because of closing 4H candle

Quoting scurt
closed 1/4 position on DP, should be very nice bearish 4h candle but lot of room to close 4h... if looks nice bearish will add more shorts...

Quoting scurt
sell_5872, SL5920 TP-5780, tp2-5720

reasons:
yesterdays rejection of 1,59
touch downward TL
  • #256,967
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:15am Sep 29, 2010 5:15am
Quoting nAVIN2007
am i the only one seeing an inverse head n shoulder??
http://img363.imageshack.us/img363/9287/h4shc8.jpg
  • #256,968
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:17am Sep 29, 2010 5:17am
Quoting nAVIN2007
am i the only one seeing an inverse head n shoulder??

That is another name for it, but I find that when I dug a bit depper I can get in at top of the right shoulder (or bottom in the case of an inverse H&S) just by applying some fractal geometry to the pa that makes up the pattern,...conventional break of the neck line targetting height of the pattern can be good too.

Each to their own.

G/L
ex member
  • #256,969
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:17am Sep 29, 2010 5:17am
Quoting Uphios
Understand your position completely. I have no idea where it goes next and the bulls have been strong. Will they continue?.

I am still stuck with 1 lot short at 1.5550 and playing the triangle where the top is currently 1.5875 ish and the bottom will get me out of my shorts.

Keep placing half a lot long on pullbacks, closing at or near my top trendline and reversing. If that trend line then breaks (convincingly, not like yesterdays) then close the added short and find next levels.

I have to say carrying the 1 lot short position is not...
first i thought it was a typo and you mean 1.5850,
returning to that level (1.5550) can take weeks,
what if we go over 1.60 and have another uptrend developed,
and additional you have to pay rollover fees,
i donīt have the nerves to sit out such situation,
but anyway wish you the best,

btw my long from this morning (1.5813) not looking good atm,
maybe add a 2nd pos. if it goes lower,
line in the sand for me still 1.5720/10,
if goes under 1.5700 i will close
  • #256,970
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:17am Sep 29, 2010 5:17am
Quoting nAVIN2007
am i the only one seeing an inverse head n shoulder??
Guess so.

I don't take any notice of H&S until they do the right thing, that is for the H&S break in the right direction and come back to kiss the neckline. That is the only time I will play them.
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  • #256,971
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:18am Sep 29, 2010 5:18am
congrats goes to master4forex.... 1st dude on my ignore list....
  • #256,972
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:20am Sep 29, 2010 5:20am
Quoting dag777
first i thought it was a typo and you mean 1.5850,
returning to that level (1.5550) can take weeks,
what if we go over 1.60 and have another uptrend developed,
and additional you have to pay rollover fees,
i donīt have the nerves to sit out such situation,
but anyway wish you the best,

btw my long from this morning (1.5813) not looking good atm,
maybe add a 2nd pos. if it goes lower,
line in the sand for me still 1.5720/10,
if goes under 1.5700 i will close
My half lot long also not looking so good. No worries though, the 1 lot short is helping.

Like I said, it is not a strategy for everybody and I would rather not be holding a short from so far down, but thats the way the market broke.
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  • #256,973
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:20am Sep 29, 2010 5:20am
Quoting bbmac
That is another name for it, but I find that when I dug a bit depper I can get in at top of the right shoulder (or bottom in the case of an inverse H&S) just by applying some fractal geometry to the pa that makes up the pattern,...conventional break of the neck line targetting height of the pattern can be good too.

Each to their own.

G/L

that is what im playing but ofcourse its not that till the nesckline breaks..i believe this is the reason for the stall here..time gonna tell i guess
  • #256,974
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:21am Sep 29, 2010 5:21am
Quoting dag777
first i thought it was a typo and you mean 1.5850,
returning to that level (1.5550) can take weeks,
what if we go over 1.60 and have another uptrend developed,
and additional you have to pay rollover fees,
i donīt have the nerves to sit out such situation,
but anyway wish you the best,

btw my long from this morning (1.5813) not looking good atm,
maybe add a 2nd pos. if it goes lower,
line in the sand for me still 1.5720/10,
if goes under 1.5700 i will close

Careful adding to that long right now, the hourly is still consolidating and we have had one solid close below the DP already after a good bearish pattern on the 15. We are still in scalping territory until some of the larger SR's give way.

5792 will invalidate any longs from here for a while. Also watch the levels I mentioned yesterday on es and DOW they are still valid.
  • #256,975
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:22am Sep 29, 2010 5:22am
Quoting bbmac
That is another name for it, but I find that when I dug a bit depper I can get in at top of the right shoulder (or bottom in the case of an inverse H&S) just by applying some fractal geometry to the pa that makes up the pattern,...conventional break of the neck line targetting height of the pattern can be good too.

Each to their own.

G/L

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/9287/h4shc8.jpg
  • #256,976
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:23am Sep 29, 2010 5:23am
Quoting bbmac
...Markets like this remind me that 'Flat' too is a position and even on a 1min trigger I have only seen 3 x hi probability repeating patterns/set-ups that make up my trading edge, so far this London session... Patience and discipline are required and those that feel they always have to be in the market are probably doomed to fail in the long run...wait for only the highest probability set-ups and seek the most technical confluence you can find...let price come to you, not the other way round.

The current 1hr t/f as I see it in respect...


Here is my chart...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100929_gu_h1.PNG Size: 41 KB


Black demand and supply zones are aggressive. Success with your trading.

EDIT: Oops... uploaded an old one... here is the new one!
  • #256,977
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:24am Sep 29, 2010 5:24am
Quoting Uphios
Guess so.

I don't take any notice of H&S until they do the right thing, that is for the H&S break in the right direction and come back to kiss the neckline. That is the only time I will play them.
thats the right way!
  • #256,978
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:26am Sep 29, 2010 5:26am
Pound – 1.5810

Initial support at 1.5642 (Sept 24 low) followed by 1.5449 (Sep 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5999 (Aug 6 high) followed by 1.6253 (76.4% retrace of 1.6878-1.4231).
  • #256,979
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:26am Sep 29, 2010 5:26am
Quoting nAVIN2007
that is what im playing but ofcourse its not that till the nesckline breaks..i believe this is the reason for the stall here..time gonna tell i guess
Right here Nav is the re-touch of the neckline of the inverse H&S posted by Pipchick a couple of days back. Only problem is it broke through that line yesterday and I am unsure as to wether that invalidated it or not.
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  • #256,980
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:28am Sep 29, 2010 5:28am
USD

FX price action was generally subdued during the Asia session, but the dollar clearly remains on the defensive after a series of weak US data reports yesterday, which markets see as bolstering the case for further Fed QE. USDJPY and USDCHF in particular remain heavy, and the risk of further intervention by Japan's MoF is consequently growing. EURUSD traded 1.3556-1.3596, USDJPY 83.68-84.09. Equities registered some gains with the S&P500 closing +0.5% ahead. The S&P/Case Shiller composite 20 home price index dipped as expected to +3.18% y/y but the Conference Board consumer confidence figure and the Richmond Fed missed expectations. The Conference Board index fell to 48.5 vs. consensus 52.1 and the drop mostly reflected the expectations index rather than assessments of the present situation. Other confidence measures have been mixed in September.


Meanwhile, regional surveys, including the Richmond data, have suggested some slowing in manufacturing output growth, on balance, in September. Fed Governor Warsh alluded to the ongoing media debate about competitive devaluations noting that, while a weaker dollar would be good for US exporters, the willingness of foreign investors to invest in the dollar must also be protected. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said that he does not expect deflation to develop, but also cautioned that "the risk of deflation cannot be dismissed". Several other Fed officials, including 2011 voters Plosser and Kocherlakota, are due to speak today. The dollar remains under pressure from further easing concerns but several upcoming risk events in the Eurozone could keep EURUSD upside in check.

GBP

BoE policymakers aired their differences over the newswires but investors focused on the more dovish Adam Posen's comments. Posen advocated further monetary easing as he envisions CPI falling well below target. He said additional stimulus should begin in the form of additional QE gilt purchases and if that did not work, then it would be time for further fiscal stimulus and corporate debt purchases. Posen again stressed, though, that this was not a foregone conclusion.

Policymaker Sentance, the lone MPC dissenter, wrote in a paper that he sees no need to restart quantitative easing as it would give the wrong impression on the state of the economy. Neither policymaker said anything markedly different from their current positions but with the prospect of further Fed easing, investors are even more closely attuned to central bank comments.

GBPUSD BULLISH Continues to trade higher; expected to target 1.5999 key high with scope for 1.6253 next. Support is defined at 1.5719 ahead of 1.5503.
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