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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #256,661
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:10am Sep 28, 2010 9:10am
anyways, back to the techs, nice bounce at the base of the previous 1hr/4hr swing hi = potential rbs zone, confluebce with 61.8% 5610-5895..

Price @ 126% of the 20day average pip range at the low...Nice 1min double divergence based set-up to scalp + long there....

G/L
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ex member
  • #256,662
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:10am Sep 28, 2010 9:10am
Cloggie,
As you see few minutes ago was relased 2 US news...are bad, and cable is going up.... so today there is another news "FOMC Member Warsh Speaks", if bad i think cable could touch 1.58, no?
  • #256,663
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:11am Sep 28, 2010 9:11am
Quoting bbmac
But for every dove on the Mpc , there is a hawk (sentance)....I think you are over-egging the longer term impact of this...we used to get it with blanchflower when on mpc...it is still just one member being this dovish publicly.

G/L

The last thing the market needs right now is indecision from the policy makers. Under normal conditions this speech would not have this kind of impact but when the market is on tenderhooks and when the effect of the BOE is at its greatest you do need to wonder if this is just one guys's opinion or a vehicle to bring out bad news in dribs and drabs.

I am not saying that his speech will have a long term effect on the pair but the market does expect some clarification of this and a lack thereof just means that the pair is destined to fall further.

I just trade it as it comes, the buy button works just as well as the sell button.
  • #256,664
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:12am Sep 28, 2010 9:12am
Quoting dptrader
Cloggie,
As you see few minutes ago was relased 2 US news...are bad, and cable is going up.... so today there is another news "FOMC Member Warsh Speaks", if bad i think cable could touch 1.58, no?

How does the market decide which is weakest in a bad pair?
  • #256,665
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:15am Sep 28, 2010 9:15am
Quoting cloggie
The BOE is severely divided, we have Sentance wanting to raise rates, we have Posen saying that the UK is not going to meet its inflation targets and is destined to become the Japan of Europe, I wonder who is really in charge over there. At least the FED is consistent in its minutes.
to be honest..i have no idea, all i know i wont listen to news i follow charts..even if this falls right to the open on monthly it still wont change anything but if it recovers from here we are going up! and the US is gonna be in very big trouble

it simply cannot recover
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  • #256,666
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:15am Sep 28, 2010 9:15am
Quoting cloggie
The last thing the market needs right now is indecision from the policy makers. Under normal conditions this speech would not have this kind of impact but when the market is on tenderhooks and when the effect of the BOE is at its greatest you do need to wonder if this is just one guys's opinion or a vehicle to bring out bad news in dribs and drabs.

I am not saying that his speech will have a long term effect on the pair but the market does expect some clarification of this and a lack thereof just means that the pair is destined to fall further....

Sentance on wires now countering Posen rem,arks, saying '...more Qe would give wrong impression, economy showing classic early signs of recovery...etc...'

G/L
ex member
  • #256,667
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:16am Sep 28, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Delite
How does the market decide which is weakest in a bad pair?
YEAH!!! the same thing i said before...
You told me UK news are not good...ok..but its a pair...as you see if there are bad US NEWS it can go up.

Now, the question is...how we can understand what news is worst then other?

thank you really much
  • #256,668
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:16am Sep 28, 2010 9:16am
Quoting bbmac
Sentance on wires now countering Posen rem,arks, saying '...more Qe would give wrong impression, economy showing classic early signs of recovery...etc...'

G/L

There is the clarification I was alluding to earlier. Posen may well get his fingers slapped for speaking out of tune, wouldn't you love to be fly on the wall at the BOE boardroom right now?
  • #256,669
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:18am Sep 28, 2010 9:18am
Quoting bbmac
Sentance on wires now countering Posen rem,arks, saying '...more Qe would give wrong impression, economy showing classic early signs of recovery...etc...'

G/L
Where do you watch this live?
  • #256,670
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:18am Sep 28, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Fudomyo
WPP held. cheeky long
this was all brilliantly timed, as usual. bounced off the weekly pivot on the penny. what are the odds of that....

if we break back above S1 and 15800, I'm riding this one from the bottom to the top. lmao
  • #256,671
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:19am Sep 28, 2010 9:19am
300 pips up and still going..

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waiting for my perfect entry on cable when my indi reverse to 80..






What is the Essence of time? if time cannot give us more time.....?
  • #256,672
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:20am Sep 28, 2010 9:20am
Quoting dptrader
YEAH!!! the same thing i said before...
You told me UK news are not good...ok..but its a pair...as you see if there are bad US NEWS it can go up.

Now, the question is...how we can understand what news is worst then other?

thank you really much
look its very simple u cant conclude which currency is worse..it is not about that but which currence people are buying or selling..the chart tell u this..

there are professional people who couldnt know this..dont expect yourself to know..go with what is not what u think..this is perhaps the reason why yur trading maybe on edge
  • #256,673
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:21am Sep 28, 2010 9:21am
Quoting bbmac
Sentance on wires now countering Posen rem,arks, saying '...more Qe would give wrong impression, economy showing classic early signs of recovery...etc...'

G/L
Sentance has indeed moved incredibly quickly to counter the effects of Posen's comments, stating the following:

"Inflation not where we would like it to be"
"Need to create impression of return to normality"
"More QE would give wrong impression on economy"
"No need to restart QE"
  • #256,674
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:21am Sep 28, 2010 9:21am
Hi Cloggie

This is quite interesting.As mentioned previously every committee will have members with diverging views.I'm a little bit surprised that he came out with a speech with such strong implications.Presumably his ideas are not in line with the consensus of the group or the BOE statement may have been worded differently.

There is also the possibility that you mentioned that the BOE didnt want to reveal its true expectations because of the possible impact on the market so instead one of its members releases a statement not long afterwards which gives a closer idea of what they really feel ?

It will be interesting to see whether there are further statements from committee members aimed at softening the tone of his comments.

All very strange.


V
  • #256,675
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:24am Sep 28, 2010 9:24am
Managed to get 3 Longs in from 1.5730............ going all the way back up to the top again
  • #256,676
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:25am Sep 28, 2010 9:25am
Quoting gammase1
Sentance has indeed moved incredibly quickly to counter the effects of Posen's comments, stating the following:

"Inflation not where we would like it to be"
"Need to create impression of return to normality"
"More QE would give wrong impression on economy"
"No need to restart QE"

Lots of infighting going on over there.
  • #256,677
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:25am Sep 28, 2010 9:25am
Re my last post that didn't take very long !!

V
  • #256,678
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:25am Sep 28, 2010 9:25am
look the bearish engulf held (opps bearish formation)..news raised price of dollar but the chart info held
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  • #256,679
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:25am Sep 28, 2010 9:25am
Quoting uksnowman
My charts show hidden bullish div on 5m as you mentioned and on 15m regular bullish div. Does this tie-in with how you see it?
Yes UK and actually I entered that trade and lost 30 pips on it. Forgot about the Posen speech due out at 9am.
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  • #256,680
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:26am Sep 28, 2010 9:26am
Quoting PipChick
Yes UK and actually I entered that trade and lost 30 pips on it. Forgot about the Posen speech due out at 9am.
You and me both, Pipchick. Mr Posen also cost me money!

I shall add him to my "list", right beneath Ben Bernanke!

All the best.
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