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  • #3,001
  • Sep 27, 2010 2:59pm Sep 27, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting paul1
Based on greames teachings draw your lines of s/r but price will react to any randomly drawn line including the ones in the green circle.

At moment price spent over a day moving up consolidated and broke to the upside.
Whats it gonna do now ? not a clue no one has.
enter with minimal risk in direction of price .(participate). get to b.e.
This is what i have interpreted so far.

Or follow the professional analyst.typically "if it goes higher to this level its likely to go higher". But hey if it goes lower to this level we could see it...
Hey Paul,

could you please PM me a sceenshot of your pairs with spreads at MBtrading. They are an ECN so no surprise.

- Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,002
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:00pm Sep 27, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting VEEFX
Hey tmanbone,

I wouldn't consider this H1 FB and go short until price closes below the open of the previous green candle.... this is one of my mantras I am religiously following :-

EDIT: Better to wait for confirmation before going short
If we are looking for long term entries on this chart i would look for longs till it broke an actual low not just a candle low or at least break a 50% fib of a leg up for signs of a reversal.
Pull out the focus look at the bigger picture.
no were on the chart yet says reversal.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #3,003
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:00pm Sep 27, 2010 3:00pm
I can confirm - MBT allows such positions.

Regards,

Quoting paul1
I can enter in middle of spread put my stop were ever i want at mbtrading.
  • #3,004
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:17pm Sep 27, 2010 3:17pm
vee, a got the fx board up but dont know how do a screenshot might be quicker if wszymilo does it?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #3,005
  • Edited 3:21pm Sep 27, 2010 3:17pm | Edited 3:21pm
ok folks,

I am all out on AUDCHF pair and have reached my R:R of 4:4 with this last trade that was taken out at SL.
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I need a drink.. who wants to join me
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,006
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:24pm Sep 27, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
Looks like my SL is going to hit any minute....
Attachment
Hi V,
I think the key - or one of them - is the volatily or momentum of the pair you are focusing on - if there is not much in evidence then there is not much opportunity to trade.
  • #3,007
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:29pm Sep 27, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting traderray
Hi V,
I think the key - or one of them - is the volatily or momentum of the pair you are focusing on - if there is not much in evidence then there is not much opportunity to trade.
I was very confident this pair had the volatile momentum when I entered on M15/M5. This pair was a raging bull upwards! Perhaps, the big boys in new york were just trying to take out '00' orders after coming from lunch.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,008
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:38pm Sep 27, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting VEEFX
Hey tmanbone,

I wouldn't consider this H1 FB and go short until price closes below the open of the previous green candle.... this is one of my mantras I am religiously following :-

EDIT: Better to wait for confirmation before going short
Using the open price as the entry can give you a jump start. On M15 and higher, this usually means 10 or more pips. Think of it as a scalp trade. In the case price moves against you, exit a pip or 2 above break even. But if price closes beyond the open. You are ahead of the game. There can be the case when price touches the open price and heads back on you. But isn't that true for every entry you make? No need to split hairs.

What are you using ATR for on your charts VEE? I don't recall you mentioning it in your trading.
  • #3,009
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:42pm Sep 27, 2010 3:42pm
My final thoughts before we meet again before London open.

I just re-read the 'holy grail' post from Graeme (also part of my signature) and noticed this sentence "You will fail without a shred of doubt if you trade with any pre-defined actions."

pre-defined actions? Wondering what would constitute a pre-defined action with the AUDCHF pair I just traded?

Would like to have a thought provoking discussion as following comes to my mind -

- SL and TP set at a pre-defined level ?
- drawing support/resistance lines?
- taking limit order entries at 50% retrace?
- isn't finding a pair hugging 200ema and then taking entries with the hope for a breakout or pierce a pre-defined action?

I hope we all get to learn another valuable lesson from my failed entries on this project from the Master.

Regards,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,010
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:52pm Sep 27, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
Using the open price as the entry can give you a jump start....
Standard ATR(14) just to keep a tab on spreads as a percentage of candle length during entries. I don't use it at all for this project. I should probably remove it from my charts.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,011
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:06pm Sep 27, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting VEEFX
Standard ATR(14) just to keep a tab on spreads as a percentage of candle length during entries. I don't use it at all for this project. I should probably remove it from my charts.
I have atr too vee purely for the candle range number.
not the graph.
I was using it for risk reward but mine calculates from high pin to low pin anyone know of something that will calculate from open to close would help a lot as i base my trades on opens/closes.
At moment doing it manually.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #3,012
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:33pm Sep 27, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting VEEFX
My final thoughts before we meet again before London open.

I just re-read the 'holy grail' post from Graeme (also part of my signature) and noticed this sentence "You will fail without a shred of doubt if you trade with any pre-defined actions."

pre-defined actions? Wondering what would constitute a pre-defined action with the AUDCHF pair I just traded?

Would like to have a thought provoking discussion as following comes to my mind -

- SL and TP set at a pre-defined level ?
- drawing support/resistance lines?
- taking...

Hi Vee.

I think that all of the above could be pre-defined actions. The idea is that it is the market which tells us when to trade and which direction to trade in; I think this is clear from all of Graeme's posts. Learning to listen to the market and letting the market decide our direction is something which cannot be taught through indicators or any other thing. In this sense, even Graeme's excellent posts will prove impossible to profit from if we can't learn to hear the market.

Sincerely, Greenhill.
  • #3,013
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:42pm Sep 27, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, all

It is 05:00 in Sydney Australia and I just woke up.

Its great to see the discussion happening as they are all very well thought of.

Please allow VEEFX to trade as he sees fit.

For this project please allow VEEFX to control however let us all be so kind to only suggest our 2cents.

I like the ideology of walking away as per tradestar. I do that all the time.

In regards to statistics and probability I will reply to you in private message, tradestar and apologies that I have missed it. Also any traders who has...
----
I have been following this thread half through for the last 5 days but can't wait to fast forward to your latest post. I have a lot to clarify back then, but as I go on, all become cristal crear to me, it added new insight and confirmed what I have already learned from my 8 months of forex studies and research. I did some demo and have a live account which is about to be extinct. I am glad I have come to discover your thread. To start with, just want to refer to those legs that you mentioned did not survibed, did you closed them or died a natural death? If you closed them, how sure are you that they are not profitable 1/2/3 years from now?

Sincerely,

Edd
  • #3,014
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:24pm Sep 27, 2010 5:24pm
Will anyone consider short EUR/JPY?

http://i53.tinypic.com/2142gba.gif
  • #3,015
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:27pm Sep 27, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
Will anyone consider short EUR/JPY?

http://i53.tinypic.com/2142gba.gif
Would you? Price didnt close below the previous days open.
to me that doesnt say sell yet....
  • #3,016
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:41pm Sep 27, 2010 5:41pm
I want to add that the sole purpose of moving averages and channels etc, is as aids to be able to hear the market. When Graeme makes an entry, he said that he makes it in the direction of the market that day. This means that he doesn't necessarily have an expectation of where the market is going tomorrow, but he can at least know what it's doing today. Also, when he enters, he has an expecation of what should happen; there should soon be bars moving away from his entry in the direction of his trade. If not, then he closes the trade, with or without a stop loss. All this is to say that we don't necessarilly go long or short based on a resistance or support, but on our reading of the market.

An example would be the recent eur/usd move. It has so far easily blown through every resistance. If someone had set a TP, or worse, entered short at a resistance just because it was a resistance, the results would not have been optimal.

Again today there were many expecting that eur/usd would go up to 1.3516 just because it is the 50% retrace. It has not fulfilled that expectation. It has done what it has done, and today has turned out to be a good day to either stay flat or short. I'll bet that even now people are entering long just because the 50% level still hasn't been reached.

Sincerely, Greenhill.
  • #3,017
  • Sep 27, 2010 6:01pm Sep 27, 2010 6:01pm
Quoting c0mputernick
Would you? Price didnt close below the previous days open.
to me that doesnt say sell yet....
Actually, getting a jump by taking the short at the previous day's closing price. H4 candles show the setup you are talking about happened.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2j2j3a0.gif
  • #3,018
  • Edited 7:54pm Sep 27, 2010 7:37pm | Edited 7:54pm
Quoting paul1
If we are looking for long term entries on this chart i would look for longs till it broke an actual low not just a candle low or at least break a 50% fib of a leg up for signs of a reversal.
Pull out the focus look at the bigger picture.
no were on the chart yet says reversal.
Thanks for the input Paul. I appreciate it. My intent of posting my previous chart was to let Vee know that the trade was in potential trouble. Pointing out my observations. Razor sharp entries is key. Something we should all strive for "our one thing". Thanks again.

On a side note I like setting up my ATR as in the below chart. Set your atr line to the same color as your chart background then drag and drop the window to your preferred size. Gives you more room for candles. Hope this helps.

http://s2.postimage.org/Mc_DS-f95d1bed.gif
T
  • #3,019
  • Sep 27, 2010 7:52pm Sep 27, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting tjfxtrader
Actually, getting a jump by taking the short at the previous day's closing price. H4 candles show the setup you are talking about happened.

http://i53.tinypic.com/2j2j3a0.gif
4hr looks good.
  • #3,020
  • Sep 28, 2010 1:00am Sep 28, 2010 1:00am
Quoting VEEFX
I want to add one more consideration related to this topic. Most brokers, specifically MT4 enforce stop/limit levels in their platform (i.e. it will only allow stops 4-5 pips away from current price). This is another benefit of going with ECNs, you can place entry orders in-between the spreads thus enforcing tighter entries and reducing risk with newly opened positions... am i correct?
Yeah you can place order between the spread but remember that doesn't mean you won't end up paying the spread. If no one wants to hit your limit order between the spread what you often find is that the bid/ask move a lot and in the majority of cases you'll be paying the spread anyway - it actually isn't that big of a deal.

If I may say, I fear you may be falling into a trap of fixating on every little tick lost - that is why you are trying to reduce some of the spread. Sure, it is nice to lower ones costs (smaller spreads) but just make sure you don't obsess over it. In my early years of trading I was no different and with hindsight now, I would say it made my learning years harder than they needed to be. It got a lot easier when I loosened up a little bit, putting less emphasis on precision and more emphasis on being generally right.

With kind regards,
MK
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