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  • #261
  • Sep 25, 2010 8:14am Sep 25, 2010 8:14am
quote=DanUK;4048250]I will leave a little space now if there are any more questions or anything that isn't clear please ask.

Other than that though I think we are about ready to start posting some possible trade setups.[/quote]
lookin forward to them Dan
  • #262
  • Sep 25, 2010 9:07am Sep 25, 2010 9:07am
Dan regarding your live trading..if you look over it from 2009 until now do you end up having more BE trades and small losses and HUGE winners or what have you noticed about the percentages of those 3 groups?

Personally in my trading i tend to see alot of BE trades and a handful of small losses and BIG winners.

Now on the topic of moving to BE. If your in a trade and it goes in your direction enough for you to move to BE but then reverses and takes you out at BE would you get back in at the same price, or more specifically where would you tend to get back in. Because when i get taken out at BE i start thinking that we might be fluctuating around that price and i am unsure if to get back in or wait for a breakout of the high to get back. If it does prove to start ranging then i can be taken out alot at BE or losses. How many time would you allow for that if you do decide to get back in?
  • #263
  • Sep 25, 2010 9:57am Sep 25, 2010 9:57am
On my EUR daily chart analysis i see 2 opportuities to get into the EUR uptrend. Remember this is just my opinion:

1) Red arrow: The daily bar ended friday as a BUOB with a strong close near the high of the bar and at a swing high. I will play this as a continuation trade going with the trend if it breaks above the bar at 1.3500.

2) The black box: This is where I see support, around the 1.3300 area. That being said if market comes to that area i would put my order above it so it will pick me up when it resumes the trend. Also it lines up exactly where the original trenline runs through.

So once again I will let the market decides what it is going to do and I will react and watch closely early of next week.

Dan and anyone else I welcome your opinion and thoughts.
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  • #264
  • Sep 25, 2010 1:33pm Sep 25, 2010 1:33pm
well i just think we've got a nice daily/H4 trend going, trendline looks like a good shorting opportunity. i should add that i look at support and resistance but candlestick patterns don't come into my trading at all lol
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  • #265
  • Sep 25, 2010 1:35pm Sep 25, 2010 1:35pm
actually i am long cadchf at the moment, and i have a sell limit about the 50 ema (black)
  • #266
  • Sep 25, 2010 2:36pm Sep 25, 2010 2:36pm
Hi Dan,

Thanks for sharing your system! It is really quite amazing and is so similar to the way that I have been slowly learning.

I have just two questions for now.

1: Which pairs do you look at?

2: How many pips spread is the max that you would consider when looking at a pair?

Thanks
  • #267
  • Sep 25, 2010 3:06pm Sep 25, 2010 3:06pm
" If anyone has anything else that isn't clear please feel free to ask."


I want to be precise about this:

Exactly how and where do you draw your fibs.

I can see so many ways of drawing fibs that I have avoided them altogether.

Show us where you start and in which direction you draw them and so forth.

It seems like an easy thing to understand but it can get complex depending on which swing you start with and in which direction.

For the sake of example, would you please do it on the EURGBP?

Thanks for your help
Scarlett
  • #268
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:08am Sep 26, 2010 4:08am
Quoting DanUK
With regards to the AUD/CAD and AUD/USD - I prefer to wait for price to pullback to a s/r level and then enter after the formation of bullish PA. I use trendlines (or channels if you prefer) and the fib retracement tool to help guide me to the most likely s/r level and then wait for a trigger (candlestick pattern) to enter off.
Thanks Dan for the reply.

I have posted a small update to the AUD/CAD charts posted last week.

AUD/CAD:
- The pair continued it's movement up.
- There were some consolidating (inside) bars forming on 15/16 Sept. The price moved up above these earlier highs. The 20th saw a more convincing break upwards also towards the upper channel trend line.
- What would the price have needed to do to show you an entry?
- Or is it the fact this still below a significant trend line making a less attractive trade?

I guess I am trying to determine why this trade was not suitable. I am thinking it is because the current activity in not in a "area of interest" and therefore represents a lower probability trade or not enough of a discount for entry?

I haven't posted the AUD/USD update because the price action has been similar to the CAD.
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  • #269
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:37am Sep 26, 2010 4:37am
Quoting dmuk
Thanks Dan for the reply.

I have posted a small update to the AUD/CAD charts posted last week.

AUD/CAD:
- The pair continued it's movement up.
- There were some consolidating (inside) bars forming on 15/16 Sept. The price moved up above these earlier highs. The 20th saw a more convincing break upwards also towards the upper channel trend line.
- What would the price have needed to do to show you an entry?
- Or is it the fact this still below a significant trend line making a less attractive trade?

I guess I am trying to determine why this...
i would assume this trade would not be suitable becuase it is a bullish signal into an upper trendline resistance area.
  • #270
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:49am Sep 26, 2010 4:49am
Danuk and others. what do you think of this setup ?

E/U

50% retracement / 61.8% Fib.E
1.3500 Round number
Outside bar

Play as a continuation ? Although price hasnt actually closesd above all these levels yet.

Dan


btw forget about all the red lines on my chart
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  • #271
  • Edited 8:00am Sep 26, 2010 5:07am | Edited 8:00am
Anybody looking at Cad/Jpy. 82.00 looks like a major S/R area on the weekly. Formed a inside bar at this level on the weekly. Play a break either side ? Whats your opinion ?

Weekly

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Daily

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  • #272
  • Sep 26, 2010 6:53am Sep 26, 2010 6:53am
Quoting dan89
Danuk and others. what do you think of this setup ?

E/U

50% retracement / 61.8% Fib.E
1.3500 Round number
Outside bar

Play as a continuation ? Although price hasnt actually closesd above all these levels yet.

Dan


btw forget about all the red lines on my chart
Hi

I think I can I see what you see.
To me the trend is not down, rather up. However, we really are at an interresting price level.

As you said + what I can see:

50% level
round number of 1.35
It is actually a 61.8% level of another down swing on daily
Additionally it is 61.8% extention level
There is a GAP to the left on my chart. That could hold a bit at least.

So I have 5 things coming all together. Pretty good to me.

This market has been quite upwards for a while, it may as well retrace just at this level. I do not know whether it will though.
It could be a short term short play but could be better a long play with the trend as soon as the retracement seems to be exhausted at an adequatly interesting level. This is a trend trading thread after all.

Where it could be exhausted: around 1.3 already. Or around 1.29 Or at some totally other level.

Another possible tscenario to me is a clear break out to north from this level. I find this less likely as the previous one as I see this level as realy strong. But if it goes through, as soon as it retraces back around here this area could possibly turn into a pretty solid support zone. A long from here would be cool.

Wish you good luck for next week.



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Kind Regards zol
  • #273
  • Sep 26, 2010 8:23am Sep 26, 2010 8:23am
Quoting dan89
Danuk and others. what do you think of this setup ?

E/U

50% retracement / 61.8% Fib.E
1.3500 Round number
Outside bar

Play as a continuation ? Although price hasnt actually closesd above all these levels yet.

Dan


btw forget about all the red lines on my chart

I wrote about my opinion of the EUR earlier in this thread here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4048502&postcount=263

one of my opinions is in line with yours
  • #274
  • Sep 26, 2010 9:25am Sep 26, 2010 9:25am
Quoting bboyomega83
I wrote about my opinion of the EUR earlier in this thread here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4048502&postcount=263

one of my opinions is in line with yours
Yep im thinkin the same thing ... DanUK, what are your thoughts ?
  • #275
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:07pm Sep 26, 2010 4:07pm
For me the EU trend is also up. I can see the 61.8% for shorting but for me this is not the way sentiment is going to push this pair. I think the downtrend was violated quite some time ago even from the weekly perspecive, but thats just me.

So with all of that in mind I am in the market looking for some long opportunitites.

I also like the look of the AUD/USD, just looking for a pull back to the ideally the 92 area but if not the 94 area could also work.

Opportunities also showing on the GBP/CHF and AUD/CAD.

What do you guys think?
  • #276
  • Sep 26, 2010 6:33pm Sep 26, 2010 6:33pm
Hi Dan:

Thanks for starting this thread. I really appreciate your style of teaching, and willingness to do so. I kept up with your Trend Trading thread, but I never got to the point of demoing the strategy because I was over my head trying to learn the James16 Price Action strategies.

In the James16 thread, the seniors always say that the candlestick size should be similar to the preceding bars in the recent trend. Do you factor in the size of the trigger bars and the surrounding bars in your analysis?
  • #277
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:28am Sep 27, 2010 5:28am
Quoting dan89
Yep im thinkin the same thing ... DanUK, what are your thoughts ?
Hi guys,

I will be back later to answer all questions... but just wanted to say I'm not keen on trading upwards at a swing high... generally I would be looking for bullish engulfing bars to form at a s/r level on a pullback. Getting in at the high is a less probable entry - especially when price has moved in one direction for some time without a pullback (as the E/U has recently).

Of course price could continue steaming upwards but for me it is not stacking the odds enough in our favour.

Ask yourself if you are looking for a signal for the sake of getting in or are you looking at a signal that genuinely fits your plan?

Regards,

Dan
  • #278
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:53am Sep 27, 2010 5:53am
the AUDUSD bullish outside bar you took - isn't this countertrend as price had just made a huge move down?


Quoting DanUK
Hi MrCBee,

Good work!

USD/CHF and AUD/USD you got exactly right.

USD/JPY I took the bearish engulfing bar... I also kept the first fib you mentioned because it was the most recent engulfing swing (although as you noted price had retraced into it already it had not broken the swing high or low).

As you say though... finding them in historical charts is one thing, live trading is something else altogether. But it is the first step!

Regards,

Dan
  • #279
  • Sep 27, 2010 6:29am Sep 27, 2010 6:29am
Dan,

The additional positions you took, I have circled the ones which I think you took - are these correct?

Thanks,


Quoting DanUK
Ok I think the final part of the strategy that I need to explain (with the exception of counter trend trades) is how to get out.

[color=black][font=Verdana]The easiest way for me to explain exits is to use a chart... so lets take a nice easy one from earlier this year... the EUR/USD. I started selling this from the green line in the attached chart and exited all trades at the red line. Now if I had placed just this one trade I could have been up almost 1900 pips (which would have been about 25% for 2%...
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  • #280
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:12pm Sep 27, 2010 12:12pm
so where are you looking for price to pullback to so you can get back in?
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