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Building an equity millipede

  • #2,941
  • Sep 26, 2010 10:11am Sep 26, 2010 10:11am
Quoting VEEFX
aha... found my post where I had initially mentioned it should be 'atleast' in our mission statement.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2447
great glad we got to bottom of it .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #2,942
  • Sep 26, 2010 10:35am Sep 26, 2010 10:35am
Quoting VEEFX
aha... found my post where I had initially mentioned it should be 'atleast' in our mission statement.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2447
Yes, this makes sense. But if we assume we will only have one winner that goes for the predetermined Reward that means we are stuck with "1". Then the "less than" applies to the "100", or whatever figure takes that place. The more I think about this the more it makes sense the way Graeme stated it. We expect to have one winner that needs to take less than 100 attempts to get, if our profit is 1000 pips. If it takes more than we will not be profitable and if it takes 100 we break even.

Thinking of it the reverse works as well, but I am convinced that this type of statement is dealing with 1 winner, so the attempts needs to be what "less than" refers to.

And this interpretation also let's us keep Graeme's words intact. And your post was where you interpreted his statement that way to fit your understanding. It was not confirmed by Graeme, if I'm not mistaken.

Michael
  • #2,943
  • Sep 26, 2010 10:45am Sep 26, 2010 10:45am
Quoting paul1
For this week keep an eye on usd/jpy.
The boj possible intervention at 82 level could affect usd pairs and jpy pairs.
they recently pushed it up 200 pips to make usd stronger and may do something similar again.
Not many bears fighting on eur/usd but that could change when people see what bank of japan do.
Personally I am going to resist the urge to dabble in Yen pairs this week. No matter how good your analysis and timing, BOJ could step in and blow it all out of the water. Or, since everyone is watching for it, even the slightest rumor could just as easily do the same thing.

Just too much of a crap shoot IMHO.
  • #2,944
  • Edited 12:29pm Sep 26, 2010 11:41am | Edited 12:29pm
"What happens if, you have 20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 5 cycle occurence??

What happens if, you have 20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 3 cycle occurence??

My 1 out of 100 cycle example @ post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2374

shows that I currently trade 10 SL and 1000 TP. This is 1:100 r:r. What happens if the win occurence is higher than 1:100?? What happens in the long run?" - Graeme @ post 2453



This should sum the more or less question up.
T
  • #2,945
  • Sep 26, 2010 12:36pm Sep 26, 2010 12:36pm
Hi Vee,
I don't usually post over here as I spend all of my time in the j16 PF. But one of your posts a couple of pages back reminded me of mistakes I've made in the past.
Quoting VEEFX
6. I think my hindsight for H4 timeframe needs some fine tuning. If a pair is hugging 200ema, it is hard to justify/anticipate at the micro level, which way the pair will go. My hindsight on both pairs were accurate on H4 timeframe but I feel this is after the fact. Prior to breakout, my confidence level was frankly quite low having suffered losses two days in a row.
Don't anticipate a breakout and commit money to it. You can never be too late to a Breakout party...but you can be too early. Or, worse yet, the breakout doesn't happen and you get yourself a -1R you didn't want.

When you move your SL to BE...is there any reason you can't move it to BE+ (entry+spread+5 pips) so when price retraces you at least get something positive out of that trade? I don't remember if Graeme stated the rules on that.

Cheers,
Eric.
" Be always employed in something useful." - Benjamin Franklin
  • #2,946
  • Sep 26, 2010 7:15pm Sep 26, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting cougar73
Hi Vee,
I don't usually post over here as I spend all of my time in the j16 PF. But one of your posts a couple of pages back reminded me of mistakes I've made in the past.


Don't anticipate a breakout and commit money to it. You can never be too late to a Breakout party...but you can be too early. Or, worse yet, the breakout doesn't happen and you get yourself a -1R you didn't want.

When you move your SL to BE...is there any reason you can't move it to BE+ (entry+spread+5 pips) so when price retraces you at least get something positive...
Hi Eric,

I am a big fan of BE+__ pips to compensate for my 'time and effort' spent on each trade. I just don't want to use it for this project for Graeme and skew the R:R result/outcome.

EDIT: Forgot to welcome you to this thread. I believe there are lot of professional (fulltime??) traders silently reading this thread.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,947
  • Edited 8:12pm Sep 26, 2010 7:50pm | Edited 8:12pm
So what looks interesting to everyone today?

I'm almost always interested in E/U and today is no exception. I am anticipating a dip to the 1.3400 area and then will look for confirmation to go long.

Other than that some of the CHF pairs are starting to look interesting to me again. G/C in particular stood out. I'm anticipating a top on H4/H1 around confluence of 38fib, 200SMA, and 1.5600 and then go short in direction of trend after confirmation of a bounce. Probably just after the start of London session.

I'm keeping an eye on A/U as well. Again, watching for a dip in price action to enter long.

Any other pairs look interesting to anyone?
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  • #2,948
  • Edited 11:14pm Sep 26, 2010 10:59pm | Edited 11:14pm
Good morning/evening Graeme and fellow traders,

Today is start of week #2 for this project. Allow me to pause for a moment to look back into my week #1 trading decisions/log and summarize my performance in relation to the risk/reward. It also has excerpts of lessons I/we learnt during Week#1 of this project from Graeme's review of my trading activity for your convenience and future reference.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SnapShot022 2010-09-26.jpg Size: 205 KB


Hope this helps.

p.s. I will be sharing my pairs of choice for tonight soon along with my hindsight and price interpretations.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,949
  • Sep 26, 2010 11:28pm Sep 26, 2010 11:28pm
Hi All,

I have chosen the following pairs that are either hugging or recently pierced 200ema.

My 1st pair of choice:
AUDCHF: Hindsight is Long for all Monthly, Weekly, Daily and H4 timeframes.

My 2nd pair of choice:
EURCHF: Hindsight is Long Monthly, Long Weekly, Long/Range Daily and Long H4 timeframes.

My 3rd pair of choice:
Of all the remaining pairs offered by fxcm, cadjpy, gbpjpy, nzdjpy, gbpnzd and euraud are hugging 200ema. I would have chosen EURAUD but decided to 'diversify' and go with GBPNZD instead. I am also staying away from JPY pairs for this week as I am still bullish on BOJ's further intervention.

Hindsight on GBPNZD is a bit 'shaky'... long monthly and weekly, range/sideways on daily and short/sideways on H4 timeframes.

Charts to follow....
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,950
  • Sep 26, 2010 11:57pm Sep 26, 2010 11:57pm
Public service warning:
regarding a member called thx1139
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12714

is thx1139 a pip_daddy reincarnate? is he a multiple usernamed member?
go see & decide for yourself.

one suggestion: use the 'ignore list to maintain the conciseness' of this thread.

Back to regular programming
  • #2,951
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:06am Sep 27, 2010 12:06am
Quoting supremeChaos
Public service warning:
regarding a member called thx1139
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12714

is thx1139 a pip_daddy reincarnate? is he a multiple usernamed member?
go see & decide for yourself.

one suggestion: use the 'ignore list to maintain the conciseness' of this thread.

Back to regular programming
BAhahahahahahah! The J16 groupies are following me around now. So nice to see I have such dedicated fans!


Surely that's the only reason they would be here because we don't really follow the J16 system. And the thread starter does real time trading and does not have a paysite. Imagine that!
  • #2,952
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:13am Sep 27, 2010 12:13am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi All,

I have chosen the following pairs that are either hugging or recently pierced 200ema.
...

Charts to follow....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-26-2010 11-52-49 PM.png Size: 78 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,953
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:17am Sep 27, 2010 12:17am
Quoting supremeChaos
Public service warning:
regarding a member called thx1139
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12714

is thx1139 a pip_daddy reincarnate? is he a multiple usernamed member?
go see & decide for yourself.

one suggestion: use the 'ignore list to maintain the conciseness' of this thread.

Back to regular programming
are you suggesting they are pipeasy as well??????
  • #2,954
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:24am Sep 27, 2010 12:24am
Quoting VEEFX
Attachment
This is for my first pair of choice...AUDCHF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-26-2010 11-56-58 PM.png Size: 63 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,955
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:28am Sep 27, 2010 12:28am
Quoting geoffrod
are you suggesting they are pipeasy as well??????
I wish I was pipeasy. Bank account and all!

Pay no attention to the J16 groupies. I questioned their anonymous idol who never trades in real time, makes all kinds of completely unverified claims, and now runs some pay site. So now they are trying to discredit me because they have nothing better to do apparently.

Sorry that it had to spill over on to here. This isn't the place for it.
  • #2,956
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:34am Sep 27, 2010 12:34am
Quoting VEEFX
This is for my first pair of choice...AUDCHF
Attachment
Current H1 charts for AUDCHF and EURCHF pairs. Price moving in the direction of my H4 hindsight. Looking for my first long trade based on when H1 candle closes (in 28 minutes).

Reminder to myself: Based on our R:R rules, I ONLY have 2 ammo left for each of these pairs. I must not open another new position unless I move to BE.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-27-2010 12-26-35 AM.png Size: 48 KB


EDIT: I will go long at open of next H1 candle in 20 minutes if price closes above the line. Due to strong upward motion, I probably won't wait for a retrace entry at 50% fib.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,957
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:35am Sep 27, 2010 12:35am
Quoting thx1139
... The J16 groupies are following me around now. So nice to see I have such dedicated fans!
...
LOL.
im not a member of the J16 PF. u still resort to your filthy ways.
FYI, i visit this thread a bit often.. i also have vouched for Sir Graeme back in August/late July...
i dont post here... unlike u, your last post here (i havent checked the others, i dont bother to) is totally irrrrrrrelevant to this thread, IMHO.

u decided not to use vulgar words like pip_daddy did, now that u are 'thx1139', LOL... but u are still a rule breaker... multiple usernames.

stop being a fxggot, be a man & use ONLY one username. no need to hide under many identities.

this is my last reply to u....IN THIS thread see u around, hopefully
  • #2,958
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:37am Sep 27, 2010 12:37am
Since I have another 25 minutes to wait for my first entry. I will pause and solicit for your 2cents towards or against my hindsight and price interpretations.
appreciate if you could comment on only the two pairs I have chosen for tonight. GBPNZD was just for backup and I may not be needing it tonight.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,959
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:41am Sep 27, 2010 12:41am
Quoting geoffrod
are you suggesting they are pipeasy as well??????
no.
pip_daddy &/or thx1139 makes short posts
pipEASY makes lengthy posts.
  • #2,960
  • Sep 27, 2010 12:48am Sep 27, 2010 12:48am
Quoting supremeChaos
no.
pip_daddy &/or thx1139 makes short posts
pipEASY makes lengthy posts.
Boy you sure got me! Damn, here I thought I was fooling everyone but I overlooked the whole short post vs long post thing. Damn, foiled again.......and I would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling kids!
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