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  • #2,821
  • Sep 23, 2010 3:58am Sep 23, 2010 3:58am
I am tempted to jump on G/J short action but too tired at the moment. I think I did ok on Euraud long and gbpjpy short hindsight but failed on eurchf long hindsight. As graeme would say, there is no such thing as right or wrong. As long as we participate in the market and reap the benefits, we are all winners. With that said, I am off to bed as I have to get up in 3 hours again.

Good night everyone.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #2,822
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:04am Sep 23, 2010 4:04am
Quoting tmanbone
If you've participated with minimal risk, moved to BE, there is nothing left to worry about. You've done the best you're going to be able to do. Job done.

On a side note since we're talking in scale, the EUR/AUD has the nicest looking monthly FB it has had in it's 20 month down move. Risking 20 pips for chance of a move back up even a portion of the down is what the lesson is all about.

Nice job. Good choice Vee.
I think everybody should sleep on what tman said in this post. It applies to most of the long trending pairs that are almost prime for reversal on their monthly charts.

These lessons WILL secure your retirement if you get this strategy right and participate with minimum risk....
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,823
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:08am Sep 23, 2010 4:08am
Agreed. Thanks for the effort and I enjoyed the discussion. It'll be interesting to read Graeme's comments in the morning.
  • #2,824
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:43am Sep 23, 2010 4:43am
Hi all

joined in the fun late it seems.

anyway, Gbp/cad is doing what it 'should' be doing. Hope someone else is in.

And I agree with Vee. Eur/Aud has long bias. But as he has said, it is safer to wait for the bar in H4 to pierce the 200 MA.

We certainly don't want to enter and see it bounce on the MA like what G/J is doing.

My little contribution.
  • #2,825
  • Sep 23, 2010 5:07am Sep 23, 2010 5:07am
Quoting the novice
Hi all

joined in the fun late it seems.

anyway, Gbp/cad is doing what it 'should' be doing. Hope someone else is in.

And I agree with Vee. Eur/Aud has long bias. But as he has said, it is safer to wait for the bar in H4 to pierce the 200 MA.

We certainly don't want to enter and see it bounce on the MA like what G/J is doing.

My little contribution.

we have a bit of action happening, but need to wait till close of 4hr for all of the 200ema piercing that is going on ATM.
  • #2,826
  • Sep 23, 2010 5:57am Sep 23, 2010 5:57am
Hi Vee,
As you say not much happening during your spell; for myself - having come to party somewhat late - 3 hours into London - have a different perspective on your early comments. See EuroAud stalling and coming off 4h 200 ema with hourly pointing down, good FB pin bar down and 15 min FB down - seems to have broken below last 3 bull candles and trying hard to go down, but with 10pip spread is difficult to justify any entry with 20 pip stop. However just about to go to BE on a short - hopefully. Due to spread will not add to this - rather expect a bounce around 1.4000 area.

Also been watching USDCAD - 4H stalling just below 200 ema, good FBs on 1 hour and 15 min - moved short to BE a while ago. Will only add if there is significant movement down. Expect some action around 1.3000 area.

Also been in USDJPY since last Friday - of 12 positions only one is surviving. So fingers crosed, but as OZDave pointed outcould be pulling back from 50% retrace.

Just my 2 pennyworth.

Keep it up - lots watching you - no pressure
  • #2,827
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:45am Sep 23, 2010 6:45am
Quoting VEEFX
Thanks Longhorn for your time in providing feedback on my pairs. It helps me reevaluate my decision. We agree on Monthly so won't comment on MN hindsight

On weekly Hindsight, my comments on the weekly chart below
Attachment

On Daily hindsight, my comments on daily chart below
Attachment

On H4, one of my lesson learnt from previous night is to stop restricting my horizon by factoring S/R levels into my hindsight.

Hope this helps you understand my reasoning behind choosing this pair.
VEE:

Couple of questions:

1) You said the FBs failed. Why did you say that?

2) Would you please post your trade entry check list.

Thank you, VEE
  • #2,828
  • Sep 23, 2010 8:14am Sep 23, 2010 8:14am
why not EurChf and CadJpy? both have crossed 200 ema, tested back and both have a 2nd candle closed below last green candle, with good momentum. I have moved 2 CadJpy trades to BE and just opened my 3rd at 81.38 and my 1st Eurchf is moved to BE and just open the 2nd at 1.3124.
  • #2,829
  • Sep 23, 2010 8:57am Sep 23, 2010 8:57am
Quoting walrus_78
why not EurChf and CadJpy? both have crossed 200 ema, tested back and both have a 2nd candle closed below last green candle, with good momentum. I have moved 2 CadJpy trades to BE and just opened my 3rd at 81.38 and my 1st Eurchf is moved to BE and just open the 2nd at 1.3124.
good that you have some profitable trades.
To be fair to Vee, he has considered the pairs you mentioned.
It is difficult to trade under public glare, and I for one would find it hard to concentrate on too many pairs.
Besides, he already has a finger on one yen pair.

BTW if you were to read his posts again, you would know the reason he did not consider your pairs.
One reason is that he was bullish on Eur.
  • #2,830
  • Edited 9:15am Sep 23, 2010 9:13am | Edited 9:15am
just peek in to this pair and thought of sending a quick post regarding my change in hindsight on EURAUD.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #2,831
  • Sep 23, 2010 9:38am Sep 23, 2010 9:38am
latest assessment on all three pairs from last night...
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Staying in my lane...
  • #2,832
  • Sep 23, 2010 9:50am Sep 23, 2010 9:50am
two trades going strong on U/J...so 2 already closed at SL. which means I am currently at 2:4 R:R which is not good
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Staying in my lane...
  • #2,833
  • Sep 23, 2010 10:31am Sep 23, 2010 10:31am
I still think another discussion/clarification from Graeme is need on my/our understanding of R:R as part of our mission statement. I am struggling to make the call on the outcome of my U/J positions.

I have lost two trades at SL. Total loss = 20+20=40pips + 2*spread
I am currently at 70 pips profit on my two open trades.

Question to all and Graeme: Should I close when the two open positions reach 80 pips in profit or should I close when the two open positions reach 120 pips to recover from my 2 SL trades?

Please only respond to this post keeping in mind our mission statement is 1:4 Risk Vs Reward for this project. I have already suffered two SLs for this U/J opportunity. Should I recover my SL losses or should I stick to 80 pips and close out on this opportunity?

p.s. I understand keeping these two BE positions run forever is in my best interest but I am not allowed to do that for this project as per our mission statement as it stands right now.

Please advise.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,834
  • Edited 10:55am Sep 23, 2010 10:35am | Edited 10:55am
My view on the EUR/AUD changed as well from last night. Still focused on the monthly FB. IMO the opportrunity hasn't presented itself here yet.

Graeme's lesson on not getting in a hurry to stack might be worth a review. I'm looking to study it again myself.

I'm sure it's tough being in the spotlight with all opinions. Hang tough Vee.

EDIT:

EUR/JPY looks like a weekly FB to me, although not closed. opinions? Is there a wrong answer?
Disregard my edit. I'm to distracted right now.
T
  • #2,835
  • Edited 11:04am Sep 23, 2010 10:49am | Edited 11:04am
Thanks guys for pointing out E/A. I hadn't looked at that pair much in the past but looks very promising. I'll have to keep an eye on it.

On a somewhat related note, anyone know a good way to organize these pairs on MT4? There are lots of pairs I don't watch. It would be nice if I could just call up a list of the ones on my radar currently and quickly scroll through the charts. I already have a profile with 12 chart windows that I scroll through but seems 12 is not enough.

I'm not ready to start surrounding myself with monitors just yet.
  • #2,836
  • Sep 23, 2010 11:03am Sep 23, 2010 11:03am
Quoting VEEFX
Question to all and Graeme: Should I close when the two open positions reach 80 pips in profit or should I close when the two open positions reach 120 pips to recover from my 2 SL trades?
If it were me I'd close at 80. That yields nearly a 1:2 R:R (when the spread is taken into consideration), and you would've hit your fixed profit goal, so you can then move on to the next opportunity and a fresh beginning at 1:4. Of course, it's totally your call.

Kevin
  • #2,837
  • Sep 23, 2010 11:06am Sep 23, 2010 11:06am
Quoting Starvin4Pips
If it were me I'd close at 80. That yields nearly a 1:2 R:R (when the spread is taken into consideration), and you would've hit your fixed profit goal, so you can then move on to the next opportunity and a fresh beginning at 1:4. Of course, it's totally your call.

Kevin
Can someone remind me what this exercise is all about? Are we just practicing entries in real time and discussing it as we go along? The exits after 80 pips or whatever is not part of Graeme's system which is why I'm asking..
  • #2,838
  • Sep 23, 2010 11:09am Sep 23, 2010 11:09am
Took a nice Flying Buddah last night on the AUDUSD. Two days of green FB, today price opened lowe with a FB. Entry at psychological of .9850. Good for 50+ pips.
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  • #2,839
  • Sep 23, 2010 11:12am Sep 23, 2010 11:12am
Quoting VEEFX
Question to all and Graeme: Should I close when the two open positions reach 80 pips in profit or should I close when the two open positions reach 120 pips to recover from my 2 SL trades?
Hello Vee,

Thank you for your efforts in sharing all the charts and comments.

I think that you should stick to the 80 pips profit target because probably Graeme has a plan to give us more details when things are not going to work. I believe he mentioned you won't be profitable on this exact r:r you chose...

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #2,840
  • Sep 23, 2010 11:19am Sep 23, 2010 11:19am
Quoting thx1139
Can someone remind me what this exercise is all about? Are we just practicing entries in real time and discussing it as we go along? The exits after 80 pips or whatever is not part of Graeme's system which is why I'm asking..
I believe the point of the exercise (for now) is to work within the confines of fixed R:R. We'll likely learn that in the long run this way of thinking will not be very profitable. Later, after the point is proven, Jedi Master Graeme will further enlighten us with the true power of infinite gains. Before we can go there, though, we need to learn the hard way why fixed R:R is not in our best interest, which is where we are right now. Additionally, Graeme is also using this exercise to teach Vee and us in real time how to find high odds/low risk entries.

At least, this is my interpretation of the exercise and I could very well be mistaken. If so, Graeme is free to call BS on everything I just stated and set the record straight. Until I hear otherwise, this will continue to be my understanding.

Kevin
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