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  • #2,781
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:20pm Sep 22, 2010 7:20pm
Short euraud
  • #2,782
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:37pm Sep 22, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting Accumulation
Short euraud

Closed +1 pip
Didn't see that cup and handle pattern on daily chart. Better to wait till Europe opens.
  • #2,783
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:48pm Sep 22, 2010 7:48pm
Look at CadJpy H4, It has just crossed 200 ma with very good momentum, and right now is at 50% fib, and at this same point is testing the back of the 200 ma, I think is a good trade I placed a Sell stop at 81.900 based on H1. Let's see
  • #2,784
  • Edited 8:11pm Sep 22, 2010 7:49pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting Accumulation
Closed +1 pip
Didn't see that cup and handle pattern on daily chart. Better to wait till Europe opens.
Accumulation,

Seems there are several "conflicted" pairs this evening. Check out the CAPJPY 4H chart. This is a classic Graeme "must breakout" but, in which direction? We must wait to see where the "flow decides to go".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY 4H.png Size: 53 KB
  • #2,785
  • Sep 22, 2010 8:06pm Sep 22, 2010 8:06pm
Which TF is that?, it doesn't look like my charts
  • #2,786
  • Sep 22, 2010 8:13pm Sep 22, 2010 8:13pm
Quoting walrus_78
Which TF is that?, it doesn't look like my charts
walrus_78,

The screenshot was snagged about 1/2 hr ago on the 4H TF.
  • #2,787
  • Sep 22, 2010 8:16pm Sep 22, 2010 8:16pm
Quoting rdwatkins
Accumulation,

Seems there are several "conflicted" pairs this evening. Check out the CAPJPY 4H chart. This is a classic Graeme "must breakout" but, in which direction? We must wait to see where the "flow decides to go".
Anybody with the stones to be holding shorts around 81.00? LOL
  • #2,788
  • Sep 22, 2010 8:22pm Sep 22, 2010 8:22pm
http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/8724/austack.jpg

Stacked up on the AU 5 min. A few BE's and small losses were hit before I got the last 2 legs in. The last smaller leg has half off now to compensate for the losers.
  • #2,789
  • Sep 22, 2010 8:51pm Sep 22, 2010 8:51pm
Quoting Benevolent
http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/8724/austack.jpg

Stacked up on the AU 5 min. A few BE's and small losses were hit before I got the last 2 legs in. The last smaller leg has half off now to compensate for the losers.
I've got a limit order for .9602. There is no confirmation yet that it will break .9600 but that is the direction of trend. If it does breakout it will probably happen fast with a lot of momentum.

I also have a limit order for E/U at 1.3421 for pretty much the same reasons.
  • #2,790
  • Sep 22, 2010 9:18pm Sep 22, 2010 9:18pm
Quoting thx1139
I've got a limit order for .9602. There is no confirmation yet that it will break .9600 but that is the direction of trend. If it does breakout it will probably happen fast with a lot of momentum.

I also have a limit order for E/U at 1.3421 for pretty much the same reasons.
I'm anticipating a break on that level as well.
  • #2,791
  • Edited 11:35pm Sep 22, 2010 11:35pm | Edited 11:35pm
Good Morning/Evening Graeme and fellow traders/readers,

I just logged into my account to get the latest stats. Please find attached chart with details on my open 4 positions along with my thought process on what I plan to do with these trades.

I am very concerned about going over our R:R for this opportunity. I am currently at 3:4 (risking 3 entries instead of 1 per our mission statement). If total wipeout occurs, I will end up loosing 3 SL trades on this opportunity which is not going to be pretty. Keeping this perspective in mind, I plan to close partial or all open trades to reduce my risk down to 1:4 or net out at breakeven for this opportunity.

P.S. - I am aware of the engulf candle on H4 timeframe which is screaming at me to close all trades. Unfortunately, this happened when I was away from my desk.

Lesson Learnt(1): I should not have opened 4th trade without moving 3rd position to BE. Never open a new trade without the last one is moved to BE.

Lesson Learnt(2): By mistake (perhaps due to fatigue), I had left my 3th position completely exposed with not SL or TP set. I was lucky to catch it in time to prevent a disaster from happening. Never leave the desk with a SL in place!

I will look for new pair/opportunity for tonight and post with my decision for tonight trading exercise.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-22-2010 9-16-07 PM.png Size: 82 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,792
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:43pm Sep 22, 2010 11:43pm
Quoting VEEFX
Good Morning/Evening Graeme and fellow traders/readers,

I just logged into my account to get the latest stats....
Graeme,

Wondering if you could please confirm my understanding around risk:reward per opportunity as stated in my recent post above and whether my thought process is justified to close out partial/all open positions to reduce my risk for this opportunity.

In essence, am I correct in saying that I am currently at 3:4 Risk versus Reward keeping in mind that one SL is already hit yesterday prior to my first breakeven trade and now I have 2 currently not set at BE.

I have a feeling that our readers are still struggling a bit with getting a firm handle on this important aspect of R:R as it pertains to a single opportunity (trading setup/trigger)

Hope you are felling better today. Looking forward to another decent PA based activity.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,793
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:52pm Sep 22, 2010 11:52pm
Hi All,

Here is the 4hr USDJPY. Notice that we have just broken out of a long down ward channel to the top side. We have now retraced 50% of last weeks up move. If we get some reversal signals here look for the up move to continue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 4hr 50% retrace 23.09.10.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #2,794
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:10am Sep 23, 2010 12:10am
Hello all,

I looked at every pair offered in my platform and came up with the following pair selection for tonight's opportunity on H4. I am listing in the order of best pair first.

(1) EURAUD: H4 Trading direction will be Long for tonight

Hindsight:Monthly is down, Weekly is up, Daily is up and H4 is also up.
Observations: WK, Daily and H4 flying buddha is still in force indicating a strong tail wind pushing in the upwards direction. This is going to be a very good trade. Also, this is a very clean pair with minimum long up/down wicks on most timeframes.
Concerns:: AUDUSD is having an awesome run upward since July.

(2) GBP/JPY: H4 trading direction will be Short for tonight
Hindsight:Monthly is down, Weekly is up, Daily is down and H4 is also slightly down. second choice as I see quite a few up and down wicks

(3) EURCHF: H4 trading direction will be Long for tonight
Hindsight:Monthly is down, Weekly is up, Daily is up and H4 is also up making it a good candidate. Third choice as I see quite a few up and down wicks

I forcefully ignored some of the recent posts from members on picking their pairs for tonight just to prevent myself from being influenced by their decision and affecting my hindsight. My apologies. I will now read those posts and comment on them if required.

Wish you all good trading tonight.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,795
  • Edited 12:18am Sep 23, 2010 12:15am | Edited 12:18am
Quoting VEEFX
Hello all,

I looked at every pair offered in my platform and came up with the following pair selection for tonight's opportunity on H4. I am listing in the order of best pair first.

(1) EURAUD: H4 Trading direction will be Long for tonight

Hindsight:Monthly is down, Weekly is up, Daily is up and H4 is also up.
Observations: WK, Daily and H4 flying buddha is still in force indicating a strong tail wind pushing in the upwards direction....
EDIT: I will go long EurAud ONLY if price pierces upwards through 200ema and H4 candle closes above 200ema. Since price is approaching up towards 200ema I want to protect myself from s fake bounce/retrace downward for a few candle just for price to continue upwards.

EDIT2: Sorry.. I meant H4 candle to close above 200ema instead of H1.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,796
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:58am Sep 23, 2010 12:58am
Quoting VEEFX
EDIT: I will go long EurAud ONLY if price pierces upwards through 200ema and H4 candle closes above 200ema. Since price is approaching up towards 200ema I want to protect myself from s fake bounce/retrace downward for a few candle just for price to continue upwards.

EDIT2: Sorry.. I meant H4 candle to close above 200ema instead of H1.

hey VEE, for the sake of clarity, can you try and explain why you wont consider short on the eur/aud, after all it is in a hell of a down trend, the expansion away from a 200 ema could go either way! couldn't it???

i was looking at the 3 you picked, as well as cad/jpy, and gbp/cad

good luck for tonight.

cheers
geoff
  • #2,797
  • Sep 23, 2010 1:09am Sep 23, 2010 1:09am
Thoughts on VEE's choices...

Quote
(1) EURAUD: H4 Trading direction will be Long for tonight

Hindsight:Monthly is down, Weekly is up, Daily is up and H4 is also up.
Observations: WK, Daily and H4 flying buddha is still in force indicating a strong tail wind pushing in the upwards direction. This is going to be a very good trade. Also, this is a very clean pair with minimum long up/down wicks on most timeframes.
Concerns:: AUDUSD is having an awesome run upward since July.


EUR/AUD (I don't really agree or see what you see at all)

Monthly is in kick-ass downtrend.
Weekly is in downtrend... not sure where the FB plays a part... Sure, one happened but I don't see significant confirmation...
Daily is first place to make a slight up-trend argument... but it still looks like if you're looking at a slight retracement instead of the big trend.
H4 is in up trend with significant resistance above it.


Quote
(2) GBP/JPY: H4 trading direction will be Short for tonight
Hindsight:Monthly is down, Weekly is up, Daily is down and H4 is also slightly down. second choice as I see quite a few up and down wicks

Monthly is down, Weekly is down, Daily looks down, H4 is at decision point at 50/200 convergence... But it's not that clean of a chart at the 200. (As compared to it's interaction at the 200 on Sept 14)

I'm kind of 'meh' on Guppy as well but I agree with direction.

Quote
3) EURCHF: H4 trading direction will be Long for tonight
Hindsight:Monthly is down, Weekly is up, Daily is up and H4 is also up making it a good candidate. Third choice as I see quite a few up and down wicks

Monthly is in kick-ass down trend. Weekly is maybe in the start of retracement but I don't really like the long wick on previous weekly bar. Daily is retracing it's down trend and forming a range. H4 is ranging around the 200. It's not very clean. I think I'd rather see a volatile breakout to the short side and then look to enter with this pair.

I realize I haven't made any suggestions on what to trade for tonight... that's my next task after this post. I'll do something similar in a few minutes.
  • #2,798
  • Sep 23, 2010 1:16am Sep 23, 2010 1:16am
Vee,

Thank you for taking on this task that will benefit so many of us. Please dont sweat on being right or wrong on your trade selection, as Graeme will come through with the goods as usual. It is interesting how many traders that have been in FF for many years and have posted very little, are seeing the value in this wonderful thread.
Thanks again both of you.
  • #2,799
  • Sep 23, 2010 1:21am Sep 23, 2010 1:21am
Pairs to watch for today:

USD/JPY: likely will offer some more short opportunities based off of yesterday's analysis. However, someone made a good point about the breakout from the downward channel.

GBP/CAD: had volatile breakout to the long side 16 hours ago... chart is still a little messy, but less messy than the analysis yesterday. i.e. the wikcs are shorter and the PA is more decisive. If H4 bar closes above 1.6137ish, maybe look for longs on H1. With the caveat that this flies against longer term trend.

Well... I feel like I was pretty harsh in my prior post... there's slim pickings out there if we're following Graeme's idea of looking for trades near the 200.
  • #2,800
  • Sep 23, 2010 1:31am Sep 23, 2010 1:31am
Quoting longhornxtreme
Thoughts on VEE's choices...
EUR/AUD (I don't really agree or see what you see at all)

Monthly is in kick-ass downtrend.
Weekly is in downtrend... not sure where the FB plays a part... Sure, one happened but I don't see significant confirmation...
Daily is first place to make a slight up-trend argument... but it still looks like if you're looking at a slight retracement instead of the big trend.
H4 is in up trend with significant resistance above it.


...
Thanks Longhorn for your time in providing feedback on my pairs. It helps me reevaluate my decision. We agree on Monthly so won't comment on MN hindsight

On weekly Hindsight, my comments on the weekly chart below
Attached Image


On Daily hindsight, my comments on daily chart below
Attached Image


On H4, one of my lesson learnt from previous night is to stop restricting my horizon by factoring S/R levels into my hindsight.

Hope this helps you understand my reasoning behind choosing this pair.
Staying in my lane...
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