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Basket 14 EA System

  • #581
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:22pm Sep 22, 2010 7:22pm
Quoting paulbt38
Skoda

Hope you didn't close out as last fridays leg has hit a close all this afternoon. Very happy with EA so far and think that having watched the last few days closely (and cursed the bad trade last friday) this has given me some real faith as it still did what it says on the tin.

Paul
I chickened out. As soon as I saw break-even I was willing to lose the 10% profit from last week - I figured it is only putting me back a week.
  • #582
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:32pm Sep 22, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting skoda2008
I have had Skoda_02 running with en ET of 2 and RegressionLength of 96 for approx 22hrs now & it has had 5 equity pops in that time. Maybe it's not sa bad as I thought? Early days though.
To me the RegressionLength is just a randomizer. In reality the pair/group can either expand or contract from opening each order and it's up to us to figure out when they do that.

I've modified your code to include the pair Deviation in the comments when the EA opens trades, so that hopefully in the long term I can collect enough data to filter out the "good" Deviation values from the "bad" relative to the buy/sell trades.
  • #583
  • Edited 9:52pm Sep 22, 2010 7:41pm | Edited 9:52pm
LOL! I knew it was too good to be true... currently the floating DD is -ve and almost taking the account back down to my starting capital of $1K

Waiting if it can recover!

EDIT: No trims yet, but the Equity now < Starting Capital, but my Lowest Margin is only 1368.11% and my current Margin is 1427.74% so I'm just going to leave it running overnight to see what happens. It's all relative.
  • #584
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:44pm Sep 22, 2010 7:44pm
Just put 'The Phantom' on a 10K Mini demo. 100:1 lev.
Default EA settings. Will keep you posted.
I think I better try Mr. Skoda's offerings, too. See if my buzzard-luck can turn 'em into losers.

Mike
  • #585
  • Sep 22, 2010 10:17pm Sep 22, 2010 10:17pm
Hi MetaCoder,

Looking at your Phantom14_Add_01 EA it seems to only trade in one direction when the PipTarget4Add condition has been met and there is no trim and reverse strategy and no safety stop at all in this EA.

What would happen if a pair's (or a bunch of pair's) phantom buy/sell meets the PipTarget4Add condition then reverses?

A little bit scary.
  • #586
  • Sep 22, 2010 10:51pm Sep 22, 2010 10:51pm
Quoting the-game
Looking at your Phantom14_Add_01 EA it seems to only trade in one direction when the PipTarget4Add condition has been met and there is no trim and reverse strategy and no safety stop at all in this EA.
This is Basket14_Add_01 without the initial basket of trades, which are being performed by the phantoms. The add trades are traded in whatever direction the phantom winner is trading, just as the add-on trades in Bskt_Add_01 were. There should be no need for a trim and reverse strategy, just as there was none in Bskt_Add_01. And there are no "safety stops" in any of these EAs.
Quote
What would happen if a pair's (or a bunch of pair's) phantom buy/sell meets the PipTarget4Add condition then reverses?
That will most assuredly happen - all the trades will not be winners, but the assumption here is that most of them will be, as they have been in Bskt_Add_01. The MaxMarginToUse is 0.2 and you can make it less if it makes you feel any better. On my $5000 standard 100:1 leveraged demo it opens .01 lot for each trade, so we're not talking about a lot of margin being used per trade. It would take a whole bunch of losing trades to put the account in jeopardy.

I know I should probably not be answering your questions since I'm not a programmer and you are, but it seemed to me that you did not understand what we are trying to do with this EA. I'm sure MC will give you a better explanation.
Frazer
  • #587
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:03pm Sep 22, 2010 11:03pm
It's all cool, this is a forum and everyone is free to share their thoughts.
I for one am here to learn about new strategies.

No need to explain how Phantom14_Add_01 came about, as I have read MC's posts
I also know about there being no safety stops in any of these EAs - except for the trim and reverse strategy.

But what I am most concerned about is what the Phantom EA is expecting or assuming based on probability of trades continuing in one direction.
  • #588
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:15pm Sep 22, 2010 11:15pm
I also note that the Phantom Buys pairs only trade in the buy direction and vice versa for the Phantom Sells pairs.

Wouldn't it be better to also allow the Buys to be traded short and vice versa with the Phantom Sells (based on the negative value of the PipTarget4Add)?

e.g. PipTarget4Add = 20. So in my suggestion if GBPUSD (a Phantom Buy pair) moves minus 20 pips (instead of up 20 pips) then open a short trade on GBPUSD.

I'm trying not to sound too critical. I just want to understand this strategy better and at the same time share my ideas.

Thanks! :-)
  • #589
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:18pm Sep 22, 2010 11:18pm
Is this the situation you were describing, the-game? At 0500 the phantom GBPUSD was at 20(+) pips so the EA opened a GBPUSD buy trade of .01 lot. The GBPUSD reversed almost immediately and is now hovering around 0. My one and only trade so far is worth -$1.05. I suspect by morning I will have several additional trades, hopefully more winners than losers - we shall see.

Not too scary yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenShot_001 22-Sep-10.gif Size: 36 KB
Frazer
  • #590
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:20pm Sep 22, 2010 11:20pm
Something like that but with multiple pairs reversing from their intended direction.

That would be a little more scarier.

What would rattle me the most is seeing the Dollar Profit Target almost in reach then most pairs reverse.

Anyway, it's results that counts
  • #591
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:26pm Sep 22, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting the-game
e.g. PipTarget4Add = 20. So in my suggestion if GBPUSD (a Phantom Buy pair) moves minus 20 pips (instead of up 20 pips) then open a short trade on GBPUSD.
OK, I didn't understand that part of your concern. I think that might be a very good addition to the EA. EDIT: However, it can get you into a FIFO situation with US brokers.
Frazer
  • #592
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:33pm Sep 22, 2010 11:33pm
Yep, results are what count. If you saw the spreadsheet I uploaded earlier today which depicts very graphically the success of Bskt14_Add_01 and the fact that the added trades provided almost all of the profit, that was what we were trying to duplicate using phantom trades rather than the live basket trades. We will see how it works out.
Frazer
  • #593
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:35pm Sep 22, 2010 11:35pm
I guess we can also lower the ProfitPct to a more realistic percentage to further decrease the risk.
  • #594
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:37pm Sep 22, 2010 11:37pm
Quoting frazerd
Yep, results are what count. If you saw the spreadsheet I uploaded earlier today which depicts very graphically the success of Bskt14_Add_01 and the fact that the added trades provided almost all of the profit, that was what we were trying to duplicate using phantom trades rather than the live basket trades. We will see how it works out.
Aah! I understand now...

But at the same time you can say that the original bunch of opened pairs that weren't trimmed and reversed acted as a safety buffer, thereby preventing your account getting into a larger drawdown.

EDIT: I just read what I wrote and now I am rethinking because that is exactly what the Phantom trades are for... I'll leave it there for all to see and think about, just in case, but for now I am unsure of what I just wrote.
  • #595
  • Edited 12:47am Sep 23, 2010 12:02am | Edited 12:47am
I saw your results and understand why the Phantom EA was created, but looking at one of your earlier trading rounds, I saw this:

+63.86 Original Trades PL
-20.95 Added Trades PL

I looked further to understand why...

It was mainly because GBPUSD was greater than the DollarProfitTarget most hours of that round, so the EA kept adding trades to it.

BUT! What the EA failed to track was the initial trade's hourly progress.

If it did track the hourly progress, then it wouldn't have added more trades when it noticed that the pair was slowly pulling back in terms of the initial trade's last hour's profit.

e.g.

Hour1: GBPUSD initial trade is now +60 and greater than DollarProfitTarget... Woohoo! Let's add a 10% lot!

Hour2: Now +61 and still >DPT... ooh the added trade is now +1, lets add another 10% trade

Hour3: Now +58 but still >DPT... oh noes... the added trades are now -5 in profit combined... hmmm, let's not add any more trades this hour

etc...

etc...
  • #596
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:19am Sep 23, 2010 12:19am
Quoting frazerd
I think that might be a very good addition to the EA. EDIT: However, it can get you into a FIFO situation with US brokers.
Maybe add it as an option for people using non-US brokers?
  • #597
  • Sep 23, 2010 2:55am Sep 23, 2010 2:55am
Quoting the-game
I've modified your code to include the pair Deviation in the comments when the EA opens trades, so that hopefully in the long term I can collect enough data to filter out the "good" Deviation values from the "bad" relative to the buy/sell trades.
Good idea! I'll be interested in seeing if a pattern develops...
  • #598
  • Sep 23, 2010 8:06am Sep 23, 2010 8:06am
Thank you the-game for your advise on proper money management settings. I have made the suggested setting changes.

My system crashed so all previous demo testing work gone. I have started a fresh one and currently testing only confirm14_03.

Is it possible to have initial trades of 0.01 lots but add-on to be of 0.1 lots so that we reach the equity target sooner. Obviously there is risk so we can have a basket stop loss script run or individual stop loss settings.

Also, I like the phantom trades idea and have also shared the same concept earlier with Meta of just taking the winning trades i.e. Have 7 buys and 7 sells in a demo and take trades in live account for only the ones which trim and reverse. We can have inidividual trade stop loss and profit targets set according to our risk appetite.

Views?
  • #599
  • Sep 23, 2010 9:05am Sep 23, 2010 9:05am
the-game, you were busy while I was sleeping. All very good ideas if they can be incorporated into the code. MC says anything that can be done manually can be coded. The problem is his time constraints.

In reference to your observation on reverse trading those pairs that exceed the trigger in the negative direction - maybe we could do that only if there is not already a trade on that pair in the opposite direction.

I'm sure MC will weigh in on these observations when he has time.

As of 1500 GMT my Phantom demo has 26 trades and is up $25. It changes rapidly. I've seen it down about $17 just about 30 min ago. It just added 3 more trades at 1600 and is hovering around 0 right now. I changed the PipTarget4Add to 15 just prior to 1600. Now it's up $7 again. Really moves fast.
Frazer
  • #600
  • Sep 23, 2010 9:08am Sep 23, 2010 9:08am
I think if we can add stop loss of say 30 pips or whatever each one of us is comfortable with to the trades taken based on phantom settings that would be a cushion against fake move up and pull backs or reversals.
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