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  • #2,661
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:08am Sep 22, 2010 2:08am
Quoting pipEASY
Well done, VEEFX.

Please do not beat yourself up. No one is going to critize you for your efforts.

VEEFX, you repeated same mistake twice now.

What is it?
Did not follow this rule.. "If Im looking for sell then I want to see price close below the open of previous up/green candle" when taking entries on H1.

Unfortunately, I became impatient but did follow the above entry rule by zooming into M5 (or was it M15??) timeframe. Perhaps, I should only make entries on H1 from now on.

EDIT: My 2nd trade just hit SL. So 1 BE and 1 SL at 20+Spread pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SnapShot033 2010-09-22.jpg Size: 151 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,662
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:13am Sep 22, 2010 2:13am
Quoting VEEFX
Did not follow this rule.. "If Im looking for sell then I want to see price close below the open of previous up/green candle" when taking entries on H1.

Unfortunately, I became impatient but did follow the above entry rule by zooming into M5 (or was it M15??) timeframe. Perhaps, I should only make entries on H1 from now on.
You appear to be trading the 'anticipation' when you should be waiting for a confirmation (trigger) first. Whatever you decide the confirmation should be. 50% fib retrace or breaking s/r of previous candle or ?
  • #2,663
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:18am Sep 22, 2010 2:18am
Quoting pipEASY
I know what most traders feel as soon as they open usdjpy on 4hr/1hr. They think they are too late when infact the best moment to trade is approaching.

Why do you think I think otherwise to most traders?
Hello Graeme,

I think your thought process is different than the majority's because of your deep understanding of how markets work after a life long of trading.

For the first part though... I have to admit I thought I was late as well and ditched that chart, but would very much appreciate your view on the U/J.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #2,664
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:19am Sep 22, 2010 2:19am
Quoting VEEFX
Did not follow this rule.. "If Im looking for sell then I want to see price close below the open of previous up/green candle" when taking entries on H1.

Unfortunately, I became impatient but did follow the above entry rule by zooming into M5 (or was it M15??) timeframe. Perhaps, I should only make entries on H1 from now on.
There is nothing wrong with your actions.

However you jumped too early.

4hr hindsight is our profiting grounds. And 4hr currently says up.

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/2...10100143pm.png

If I were to forecast gbpcad 4hr

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/2...10100143pm.png

But do you really like the shape of our current gbpcad 4hr??

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/2...10100143pm.png

It looks messy doesnt it? I like it clean. Like this..

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/2...10100143pm.png
  • #2,665
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:23am Sep 22, 2010 2:23am
Quoting VEEFX
Interesting... Is it because the previous 2 H4 candles closed below 200ema with no upper wicks? i.e. There are no Buyers of U/J in the market.
VEEFX.

Please look again.

usdjpy is making me very excited at the moment.

Tonight this pair is going to make me 1 or 2 -10 pips each or....

few hundred/thousand pips.

Edit: This was usdjpy 1hr when I typed this post

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/8143/aa1ay.png


Tradpat - You can use larger stop loss but you could also use smaller stop loss? There is a common belief that jpy cross needs bigger stop loss. It is true but then I would look for tighter entries. But you are more than welcome to adjust stop loss by + or - 10 or 15 pips. Anything more on 1hr is unnecessary.
  • #2,666
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:26am Sep 22, 2010 2:26am
Just before VEEFX takes control again something important has come up.

Cameron1st has just hinted this which also happened when I was helping Marion.

What makes most of you think usdjpy 4hr/1hr is currently too late...?

I would sincerely like to know why.
  • #2,667
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:26am Sep 22, 2010 2:26am
News in 5 min on GBP
  • #2,668
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:27am Sep 22, 2010 2:27am
Quoting pipEASY
There is nothing wrong with your actions.

However you jumped too early....
Hi Graeme,

I love the "one loss and I quit" rule per pair/opportunity and I would like to stick with it for both eurnzd and gbpcad pairs. Currently looking at some other alternatives. Wondering if you have any other pair in mind. You mention U/J earlier... the threat of another BOJ intervention is keeping me away from this pair (and gbpjpy which had a nice move also).
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,669
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:28am Sep 22, 2010 2:28am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Graeme,

I love the "one loss and I quit" rule per pair/opportunity and I would like to stick with it for both eurnzd and gbpcad pairs. Currently looking at some other alternatives. Wondering if you have any other pair in mind. You mention U/J earlier... the threat of another BOJ intervention is keeping me away from this pair (and gbpjpy which had a nice move also).
Your call VEEFX.

USDJPY will drop
  • #2,670
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:29am Sep 22, 2010 2:29am
I forgot to add. By alot.
  • #2,671
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:30am Sep 22, 2010 2:30am
Hi Graeme,

Not sure if this fits the current discussion but I was wondering what your opinion is of E/U right now. It is a long ways away from 200ema but up against strong resistance at 1.3333 and looks like it needs to breakout long.

Would this be valid to anticipate it will breakout past strong resistance in the direction of the medium term trend even though we are a long ways away from the 200ema?

Looking at it again and as we speak it's looking like it could just as easily bounce. I'm thinking of getting in on which ever direction it goes from the 1.3333 resistance area. I have a limit buy at 1.3340 with 20 pips SL just in case it breaks quickly.
  • #2,672
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:30am Sep 22, 2010 2:30am
Quoting pipEASY
Your call VEEFX.

USDJPY will drop
ok... let's try U/J but first.. i don't have an answer to the question you posted. Why will it drop a LOT of pips?
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,673
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:36am Sep 22, 2010 2:36am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Graeme,

I love the "one loss and I quit" rule per pair/opportunity and I would like to stick with it for both eurnzd and gbpcad pairs. Currently looking at some other alternatives. Wondering if you have any other pair in mind. You mention U/J earlier... the threat of another BOJ intervention is keeping me away from this pair (and gbpjpy which had a nice move also).
Shouldn't keep you away from going long if the price action warrants it IMHO. For a short I agree there is good reason to be apprehensive.
  • #2,674
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:37am Sep 22, 2010 2:37am
Quoting VEEFX
ok... let's try U/J but first.. i don't have an answer to the question you posted. Why will it make a ton of pips?
usdjpy daily

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/2...10100143pm.png

usdjpy 4hr

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/739/aa2b.png

usdjpy 1hr

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/4192/aa1l.png
  • #2,675
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:41am Sep 22, 2010 2:41am
Quoting pipEASY

What makes most of you think usdjpy 4hr/1hr is currently too late...?

I would sincerely like to know why.
In my case... after the strong upward movement I'm thinking that the "buy" power is exhausted... but there was a turn and about 8-9 down candles, so now I'm thinking the "sell" power is exhausted as well, put simply, I don't know how to interpret what is going on, hence I moved to other charts which I could interpret better.
  • #2,676
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:41am Sep 22, 2010 2:41am
Quoting thx1139
Shouldn't keep you away from going long if the price action warrants it IMHO. For a short I agree there is good reason to be apprehensive.
I would be very very surprised if it goes below 80 (or 79) before year ends.... fundamentally speaking. Price action wise, I guess anything is possible :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,677
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:43am Sep 22, 2010 2:43am
Quoting cameron1st
In my case... after the strong upward movement I'm thinking that the "buy" power is exhausted... but there was a turn and about 8-9 down candles, so now I'm thinking the "sell" power is exhausted as well, put simply, I don't know how to interpret what is going on.
From what I have read, BOJ is prepared to step in at any time like they did a few days ago and inject a huge amount of liquidity again. So it seems to me there are special circumstances to be worried about here. Then again with Graeme's method we can just go with the flow and hope to at least get the SL to BE before (if) it happens.
  • #2,678
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:50am Sep 22, 2010 2:50am
Hi Graeme, Veefx & Traders

Just my 2 cents...
Using 50% retrace formula, I thought it were the most level U/J would go down to before any potential retracement (I am waiting in fact). Of course... the market is unpredictable

BTW, there is this link in FF about Japen might be again intervened...
http://imarketnews.com/?q=node/19598

Maybe Graeme (pls.) share your opinion?

Cheers
  • #2,679
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:53am Sep 22, 2010 2:53am
Quoting pipEASY

Tradpat - You can use larger stop loss but you could also use smaller stop loss? There is a common belief that jpy cross needs bigger stop loss. It is true but then I would look for tighter entries. But you are more than welcome to adjust stop loss by + or - 10 or 15 pips. Anything more on 1hr is unnecessary.
Noted with thanks, Graeme.
  • #2,680
  • Sep 22, 2010 2:56am Sep 22, 2010 2:56am
Quoting VEEFX
I would be very very surprised if it goes below 80 (or 79) before year ends.... fundamentally speaking. Price action wise, I guess anything is possible :-
Just took a short position at 50% of M15 candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-22-2010 12-53-41 AM.png Size: 30 KB
Staying in my lane...
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