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Building an equity millipede

  • #2,561
  • Sep 21, 2010 1:15am Sep 21, 2010 1:15am
Quoting pipEASY
eurnzd 4hr, its up at the moment. The last 4hr candle closed above the open of the previous down candle...
Hi Graeme,

Great feedback on my trades. Please keep them coming as I (and hopefully for our readers also) am learning a great deal. I need all the criticism I could get to improvise on my entries.

Forgot to mention this... apart from strong purple resistance, I was also basing my short entry on a down trend line on H4 toughing 3 wicks. Now, that H4 candle has closed above the down trend line, it introduces an interesting scenario. If first H1 candle of the new H4 candle closes above the resistance line, that would be a very strong indication to go long imo.

Until that happens, I am still a bear on this pair and plan to do the following...

1. take one more short if I am able to move my 1st trade to BE
2. and this time, price will HAVE to close below the open of previous up candle before I enter (lesson learnt!)
3. and most importantly, I am awake when above conditions are met. I will wait for current plus one more H1 candle before I call it a day. I will look for breakeven opportunities during the last M30 candle. This will allow me to save my ammo for another day :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,562
  • Sep 21, 2010 1:33am Sep 21, 2010 1:33am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Graeme,

Great feedback on my trades. Please keep them coming as I (and hopefully for our readers also) am learning a great deal. I need all the criticism I could get to improvise on my entries.

Forgot to mention this... apart from strong purple resistance, I was also basing my short entry on a down trend line on H4 toughing 3 wicks. Now, that H4 candle has closed above the down trend line, it introduces an interesting scenario. If first H1 candle of the new H4 candle closes above the resistance line, that would be a very strong indication...
Good.

eurnzd is in a range that needs to be broken out. Needs to.

Go with the flow.

http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/57/aa1ze.png
  • #2,563
  • Sep 21, 2010 1:46am Sep 21, 2010 1:46am
Hi Graeme,

A dumb question while we wait on some action on Eur Nzd.

Apologies for not using PM instead of this forum as you mentioned. I thought this might be in others mind as well.

You mentioned no more than four attempts. Is it because Vee chose 1:4 R:R OR just a coincidence.

Regards,
TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #2,564
  • Sep 21, 2010 1:54am Sep 21, 2010 1:54am
Quoting TradeStar
Hi Graeme,

A dumb question while we wait on some action on Eur Nzd.

Apologies for not using PM instead of this forum as you mentioned. I thought this might be in others mind as well.

You mentioned no more than four attempts. Is it because Vee chose 1:4 R:R OR just a coincidence.

Regards,
TradeStar
Good afternoon, Tradestar

Good question.

It is because VEEFX has chosen 20 SL and 80 TP which is 1:4 r:r.

If you are trading for x4 profit but takes you 5 attempts for 1 win on average, you will lose money on the long run.

However, VEEFX can try more than 4 times in one given opportunity/pair but that would be overexposure and stepping inside negative expectancy.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #2,565
  • Sep 21, 2010 1:54am Sep 21, 2010 1:54am
Is there any price nearling 200ema at the moment apart from eurnzd?
  • #2,566
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:06am Sep 21, 2010 2:06am
Quoting pipEASY
Good afternoon, Tradestar

Good question.

It is because VEEFX has chosen 20 SL and 80 TP which is 1:4 r:r.

If you are trading for x4 profit but takes you 5 attempts for 1 win on average, you will lose money on the long run.

However, VEEFX can try more than 4 times in one given opportunity/pair but that would be overexposure and stepping inside negative expectancy.

Sincerely,

Graeme
Thanks Graeme. I thought he should at least win one out of four opportunities rather than 4 attempts per opportunity

Now if gets 3 unsuccessful opportunity in a row, he would have lost 12 times already before a win; right?

Thanks again; I mean thanks is not a word for the kind of guidance you are providing us.

With much gratitude

TS
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #2,567
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:06am Sep 21, 2010 2:06am
eur/nzd 1hr update.

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/2...10100143pm.png

Edit: Tradestar you are correct. But something is not right if if takes more than 4 attempts in one single opportunity for a win. After few hundred rounds of trades will we see from our statistics whether we had less than 4 attempts per 1 win or more than 4 attempts per 1 win. Obviously the later will reflect the minus on the capital.
  • #2,568
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:08am Sep 21, 2010 2:08am
Graeme the EUR/CHF is still worth watching

Cheers
  • #2,569
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:08am Sep 21, 2010 2:08am
Quoting pipEASY
Is there any price nearling 200ema at the moment apart from eurnzd?
eurchf, gbpnzd, gbpcad, gbpusd and gbpjpy seem to be the closest to 200ema
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,570
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:09am Sep 21, 2010 2:09am
how about usd-jpy?
  • #2,571
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:11am Sep 21, 2010 2:11am
how about usd-jpy. its coming to 200ema
  • #2,572
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:13am Sep 21, 2010 2:13am
Quoting pipEASY
eur/nzd 1hr update.

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/2...10100143pm.png

Edit: Tradestar you are correct. But something is not right if if takes more than 4 attempts in one single opportunity for a win. After few hundred rounds of trades will we see from our statistics whether we had less than 4 attempts per 1 win or more than 4 attempts per 1 win. Obviously the later will reflect the minus on the capital.
1st Trade: still open and closely monitoring
2nd Trade: Placed Limit Buy order at 1.7988 SL @ 1.7968 TP @1.8068
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,573
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:21am Sep 21, 2010 2:21am
Quoting VEEFX
1st Trade: still open and closely monitoring
2nd Trade: Placed Limit Buy order at 1.7988 SL @ 1.7968 TP @1.8068
Hiya, please excuse me as I don't want to interrupt the flow. The first trade I saw posted was a short on eur/nzd for a loss that you posted here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2554

Did I miss another trade you did that you are calling your first trade?

With kind regards,
MK
  • #2,574
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:22am Sep 21, 2010 2:22am
Quoting VEEFX
1st Trade: still open and closely monitoring
2nd Trade: Placed Limit Buy order at 1.7988 SL @ 1.7968 TP @1.8068
I am deleting my pending 2nd trade. my anticipation is still short based on stop hunting during pre-london open
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,575
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:36am Sep 21, 2010 2:36am
Quoting VEEFX
I am deleting my pending 2nd trade. my anticipation is still short based on stop hunting during pre-london open
Moved Trade #1 to BE and opened second position on M5 PA
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,576
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:38am Sep 21, 2010 2:38am
Quoting VEEFX
Moved Trade #1 to BE and opened second position on M5 PA
Chart attached for reference.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SnapShot024 2010-09-21.jpg Size: 285 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,577
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:41am Sep 21, 2010 2:41am
Quoting VEEFX
Chart attached for reference.
and finally H1 Chart... stacking will continue in short direction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SnapShot025 2010-09-21.jpg Size: 240 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,578
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:43am Sep 21, 2010 2:43am
Quoting MidKnight
Hiya, please excuse me as I don't want to interrupt the flow. The first trade I saw posted was a short on eur/nzd for a loss that you posted here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2554

Did I miss another trade you did that you are calling your first trade?

With kind regards,
MK
Good catch MK. The one in the screenshot was just a practice trade as I am not familiar with MT4 platform so closed it pretty soon. Here are my latest 2 open positions
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SnapShot026 2010-09-21.jpg Size: 91 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,579
  • Sep 21, 2010 3:27am Sep 21, 2010 3:27am
Quoting VEEFX
Good catch MK. The one in the screenshot was just a practice trade as I am not familiar with MT4 platform so closed it pretty soon. Here are my latest 2 open positions
My Final trading outcome for today explained in charts:
H1 Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-21-2010 1-10-41 AM.png Size: 37 KB


Account History/Trade log:
Closed Transactions:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SnapShot027 2010-09-21.jpg Size: 111 KB

Account Summary:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SnapShot028 2010-09-21.jpg Size: 84 KB


Trade #1 at BE and trade #2 at SL.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,580
  • Sep 21, 2010 3:33am Sep 21, 2010 3:33am
I am calling it a night folks. Enjoy the rest of your day/night. See you tomorrow. This was fun
Staying in my lane...
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