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Building an equity millipede

  • #2,481
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:33am Sep 20, 2010 6:33am
Quoting pipEASY
Good observation,

I miss read paul1.

2 wins would be not +20. What paul was meant to say is 98 losses before 1 win.

Sincerely,

Graeme
Sorry if misunderstood but yes graeme thats exactly what i meant to say
one cycle :-
99 losses =990 pips
1 wins =1000 pips
profit = 10 pips

but I think as you say i got it wrong as

98 losses = 980pips
2 wins = 2000 pips 2 wins in one cycle
profit = 1020 pips

97 losses = 970 pips
3 wins = 3000 pips 3 wins in one cycle
profit = 2030 pips


Now that looks much better lol

thats getting 3 break evens to survive in a uptrend of hopefully a large uptrend .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #2,482
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:33am Sep 20, 2010 6:33am
Quoting pipEASY
Let us all wait for VEEFX and adhere to our objective.

Please feel free to pm me any questions.

Right now, it wont make much sense but I assure you the further VEEFX and I collaborate everything will be clearer.

I will guide VEEFX hands to build it together and show all at the same time how.

I sincerely hope this project will have a far more direct and concise impact to all.

If many of the traders do click at the end of my collaboration with VEEFX, I will start another 2 week project and personalise my showing to you directly....
Graeme

I see the flow! I see it!

What can I say... I appreciate and thankful for your step-by-step clear explanations.

This is truly the greatest thread I have ever come by.

No word can explain what my feel is now.

THANK YOU A LOT

Sincerely
Lee

p.s. I will PM for questions. Thanks for your generosity.
You have a good evening.
God Bless You & All !
  • #2,483
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:09am Sep 20, 2010 7:09am
Hello Graeme,

Your latest project is an amazing idea.

Also thank you Vee for participating, make us proud :-)

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #2,484
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:50am Sep 20, 2010 7:50am
Quoting pipEASY
Good evening, tradpat

I currently use FXCM.

You can download their mt4 and use it as a demo.

It looks like forexfactory was down for the past hour or so and VEEFX has logged off.

Sincerely,

Graeme
Good Morning Graeme and fellow traders,

Unfortunately, I could not continue our endeavor last night as FF was clocking/experiencing technical problems. I sent an email to Graeme's yahoo email address before going to bed (and my brain was fried so needed some rest as well). My apologies for the abrupt disappearance.

Regards,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,485
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:55am Sep 20, 2010 7:55am
Get some rest Vee.

We are all going to have you and Graeme's pace.

Thanks for volunteering in this fantastic project.

Best Regards
  • #2,486
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:01am Sep 20, 2010 8:01am
I post this to show that holding on to winning positions is more than worthwhile. What I don't want is to encourage others to develop automated strategies based on this. It's just there to show the potential of a low risk entry, participation and growth.

This is what you get if you enter EVERY FB on EURUSD H4 with a fixed 15 Pips Stoploss no matter how bad it looks without setting stoplosses to BE ever or diversifying somewhere in between. The period beeing tested is 3-4 Years. What we get is 1300 consecutive losses (ohh jesus!) and a winrate of just 1.4%. Only 19 Positions survied making it a profitable test. Average Loss is 1.5 while our everage win is somewhere in the 230 USD Range.
Imagine closing these 19 Trades for a gain of 100-200 Pips not knowing they will bring you all the cash.

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/3...sstoplossj.png
  • #2,487
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:05am Sep 20, 2010 8:05am
Quoting pipEASY
Thank you, VEEFX.

I didnt look at it that way and apologize to other readers.

Please call me Graeme and I hope its ok for you when I address you VEEFX.

gbp/nzd 4hr - watching?

This is it VEEFX.

http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/258/aa1h.png
Got it Graeme. Please address me as Vee. My friends call me Vee so it is not just a FF forum alias.

I had my eyes on gbp/nzd. I have traded this pair live and like it a lot. Looks like we missed the opportunity last night to grab 170+ pips on this pair. No biggie. This pair will give more if it breaks the current support level @ 2.14*
I will continue to keep it in my watch list for now.

Regards,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,488
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:13am Sep 20, 2010 8:13am
Ah ok Vee is back.

It's good to have you back Vee.
  • #2,489
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:33am Sep 20, 2010 8:33am
Quoting pipEASY
While we wait for VEEFX.

I mentioned just before forexfactory went down to watch gbpnzd.

Please allow me to take this opportunity to show a potential tight entry that has just happened on gbpnzd.

Everyone will notice my price interpretation is always the same and applied universally to all timeframes.

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/5306/aa1d.png

If we werent interrupted I would have urged VEEFX to take a single trade in the green area on 1hr...
Hi Graeme,

I was tempted to take this trade last night when FF was down but voted against it. Just to clarify, you want me to 'follow' you in your focal interpretation for the chosen pair and only take trades based on your advice/direction? I would prefer this for the first few trades.

Looking at your chart raised a concern I had all along about difference in server times and candle formation. My chart and ema formation is quite different for this pair. Would it confuse our readers or differ in our trading outcome? Please advice. I am attaching my chart for reference.

Now, my view of price interpretation. It's very interesting that you 'waited' for price to pierce thru the 200ema. I would have gone short below the ema in anticipation of a wick formation to touch the 2.13'00' level and shoot back up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-20-2010 6-21-02 AM.png Size: 55 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,490
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:50am Sep 20, 2010 8:50am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Graeme,

I was tempted to take this trade last night when FF was down but voted against it. Just to clarify, you want me to 'follow' you in your focal interpretation for the chosen pair and only take trades based on your advice/direction?...
Hi Vee , welcome back!
I was struggling with the same issue you raised, I downloaded the fxcm mt4 demo but ema200 is above h4 price on gbpnzd. Maybe Graeme is using some different FXCM platform with different time zone alignment ?

Cheers,
Skyline
  • #2,491
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:54am Sep 20, 2010 8:54am
Quoting pipEASY
VEEFX,

I know you now have alot of responsibility and I will guide you thoroughly.

Please see these charts.

This is what we want to achieve together.

eur/chf 4hr

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/4259/aa1g.png

gbp/jpy 4hr

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/4333/aa2e.png

We are going to do it live together and show it to rest of the readers.

Any questions?

Sincerely,

Graeme
Graeme, fantastic idea of trading in consonance all together! Lol
But I am in USA, so will I be able to participate in this profitably??
Thanks for all you do here.
Bomi
  • #2,492
  • Sep 20, 2010 9:14am Sep 20, 2010 9:14am
Quoting pipEASY
Good evening, Paul1 and Skyline

Sorry to address both of you gentlemen in one post.

Skyline - thank you

Paul1.

This is very important for everyone.

You said something golden. Something large institution do everyday.

You have got the numbers correct in your calculations.

Lets focus on your last sentence.

"But I do realise aiming for 1000 pips winners could be weeks/ months away ."

What if...

What if...

[b]There are methods (correct term...
Excellent post! I have tried this to gain a statistical 'edge/advantage' in my live trading but in a different manner. I try to look for recurring 'patterns' and assess the root cause behind their recurrence. Based on the theory that 'If they happen a 1000 times in the past, it will happen atleast another 50 times in the future.

What you mentioned in your post above is quite intriguing to me. I have been focussed on price regularities instead of irregularities.

I guess the billion dollar question to unimaginable wealth would be... What kind of algorithms/methodology do large institutions follow to backtest price irregularity. It would be like searching for a needle in a haystack.

I am no expert in quantitative or algorithmic data analysis but wouldn't one has to have a very thorough knowledge/understanding of price regularities first before they can even start looking for an uneven distribution within the scope of their backtesting?

A little off topic for our exercise but an important one for all to grasp this concept imho.

Regards,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,493
  • Sep 20, 2010 9:14am Sep 20, 2010 9:14am
Vee & Skyline

I tested and found it is 100 EMA drawn in Graeme's chart.
It might be due to typing error.
Try it yourselves.

Cheers
  • #2,494
  • Sep 20, 2010 9:26am Sep 20, 2010 9:26am
Quoting tradpat
Vee & Skyline

I tested and found it is 100 EMA drawn in Graeme's chart.
It might be due to typing error.
Try it yourselves.

Cheers
Good catch Tradpat, I think you are right ! Graeme could you confirm ?

Thx
Skyline
  • #2,495
  • Sep 20, 2010 9:43am Sep 20, 2010 9:43am
Quoting skyline
Good catch Tradpat, I think you are right ! Graeme could you confirm ?

Thx
Skyline
Whew... good catch guys! I am already struggling to understand if the outcome would differ or whether it is dependent on server times (i.e. what 'time' the daily candle closes, how many candles in a week etc) and it's impact on such PA based analysis.

If I am not mistaken, candle formations would differ during session open/close times when most of the volatility breakouts (trends??) take place.

P.S. Thanks to everyone who gave me a warm welcome back. Truly appreciate it. Perhaps it's destiny that I was chosen to participate and help everyone learn and improve their trading skills

EDIT: Taking a break to attend to other priorities. Let's connect back again at Aussie open.
EDIT: Could anyone please guide me why I receive PMs from members only when I initiate the PM first ??? It has to be some setting in my profile!
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,496
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:00am Sep 20, 2010 10:00am
Much discussion about where price is in relation to 200 EMA, and whether price is 40 pips above or below it. When a number shows in purple, it indicates for the 5, 10, 50 or 200 period moving average that price is within 40 pips or less of that specific average. For example, in the attached picture price is 39 pips from the 200 EMA on EURNZD and within 25 pips of the 200 EMA on the GBPUSD. Nice tool to alert of possible opportunity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd1 h4 09 20 10.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #2,497
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:07am Sep 20, 2010 10:07am
Quoting VEEFX
Whew... good catch guys! I am already struggling to understand if the outcome would differ or whether it is dependent on server times (i.e. what 'time' the daily candle closes, how many candles in a week etc) and it's impact on such PA based analysis....
Hi Vee,
yes it's an option in your profile settings.
Just open your profile settings then click on Edit Option, then you should see a section 'Private Messaging', just flag the option 'Enable Private Messaging' and disable the option 'Receive Private Messages only from Buddies and Moderators' otherwise normal user (not in your buddy list nor moderator) cannot be able to send pm to you.

Cheers,
Skyline
Attached Image
  • #2,498
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:14am Sep 20, 2010 10:14am
Quoting behman8850
Graeme, fantastic idea of trading in consonance all together! Lol
But I am in USA, so will I be able to participate in this profitably??
Thanks for all you do here.
Bomi
So you suggest we should long it for 136.00??
  • #2,499
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:34am Sep 20, 2010 10:34am
Quoting skyline
Hi Vee,
yes it's an option in your profile settings.
Just open your profile settings then click on Edit Option, then you should see a section 'Private Messaging', just flag the option 'Enable Private Messaging' and disable the option 'Receive Private Messages only from Buddies and Moderators' otherwise normal user (not in your buddy list nor moderator) cannot be able to send pm to you.

Cheers,
Skyline
thanks skyline. My PM is working fine now. just received a few new ones.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,500
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:41am Sep 20, 2010 10:41am
Quoting VEEFX
thanks skyline. My PM is working fine now. just received a few new ones.
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