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  • #2,461
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:46am Sep 20, 2010 2:46am
Quoting pipEASY
Quick mathematic question:

What happens if, you have 20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 5 cycle occurence??

What happens if, you have 20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 3 cycle occurence??

My 1 out of 100 cycle example @ post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2374
[color=purple]...
Yes sir. I re-read your example post 2374 several times and your last sentence "You lose money if the reward is x100 but you find that you are finding 1 win occurence in more than 100+ rounds" brought further clarity. I just need to play with some more examples (offline) around this concept with different R:R scenarios to completely (and subconsciously) blend the concept in my head. I think the use of term 'cycle' is a bit confusing to most.

Regards,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,462
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:51am Sep 20, 2010 2:51am
Quoting VEEFX
Yes sir. I re-read your example post 2374 several times and your last sentence "You lose money if the reward is x100 but you find that you are finding 1 win occurence in more than 100+ rounds" brought further clarity. I just need to play with some more examples (offline) around this concept with different R:R scenarios to completely (and subconsciously) blend the concept in my head. I think the use of term 'cycle' is a bit confusing to most.

Regards,

Vee
Thank you, VEEFX.

I didnt look at it that way and apologize to other readers.

Please call me Graeme and I hope its ok for you when I address you VEEFX.

gbp/nzd 4hr - watching?

This is it VEEFX.

http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/258/aa1h.png
  • #2,463
  • Edited 3:13am Sep 20, 2010 2:55am | Edited 3:13am
Quoting pipEASY
Good afternoon, VEEFX

Please do not hold back any questions in the thread and also any other readers as well. For the other readers, please feel free to ask however may I please request to send me the questions through private messaging.

VEEFX, so it begins.

May I please suggest leaving the exotics out for this project as FXCM does not support them for now. Is that ok?

cad/chf 4hr - Looks like we just missed it.

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/258/aa1h.png...
Nice illustrations Graeme. Both GBP.CHF and EUR.CHF pairs are also testing the strength. I think they will shoot down another leg. I was narrowing down to EUR.CHF. H4 setup is prime for breakout mostly downward as there is a double wick occurring on H1 at the moment.
Attached Image
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,464
  • Sep 20, 2010 3:03am Sep 20, 2010 3:03am
Quoting pipEASY
Good afternoon, fun_demental

Thank you for your posts.

I understand where you are coming from and I understand what you are really asking.

Unfortunately, I might not have the answer you are looking for but I do have answers to questions you might ask in the future when your trading does not progress to your expectation. Im not looking down on you nor any disrespect but Im happy to assist to hasten your learning curve.

There are too many posts in this thread which I apologize and it is mind boggling for any reader to start reading...

Thank you.

Little newb: I'm trying realy, REALY hard to understand what you are trying to do.

Respects,

fun_demental
  • #2,465
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:22am Sep 20, 2010 4:22am
Hi Graeme

I hope you don't mind...
Which is the MT4 broker you use currently?
I use GoMarkets/FXDD/FXLite, but neither has the pairs you mentioned.
I thought to ease my learning process by having the same MT4 platform as yours.

Thanks.

Cheers
  • #2,466
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:27am Sep 20, 2010 4:27am
Quoting tradpat
Hi Graeme

I hope you don't mind...
Which is the MT4 broker you use currently?
I use GoMarkets/FXDD/FXLite, but neither has the pairs you mentioned.
I thought to ease my learning process by having the same MT4 platform as yours.

Thanks.

Cheers
Good evening, tradpat

I currently use FXCM.

You can download their mt4 and use it as a demo.

It looks like forexfactory was down for the past hour or so and VEEFX has logged off.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #2,467
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:36am Sep 20, 2010 4:36am
While we wait for VEEFX.

I mentioned just before forexfactory went down to watch gbpnzd.

Please allow me to take this opportunity to show a potential tight entry that has just happened on gbpnzd.

Everyone will notice my price interpretation is always the same and applied universally to all timeframes.

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/5306/aa1d.png

If we werent interrupted I would have urged VEEFX to take a single trade in the green area on 1hr timeframe. And here is the reason why:

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/5558/aa2l.png
  • #2,468
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:38am Sep 20, 2010 4:38am
Quoting pipEASY
Good evening, tradpat

I currently use FXCM.

You can download their mt4 and use it as a demo.

It looks like forexfactory was down for the past hour or so and VEEFX has logged off.

Sincerely,

Graeme
Thanks for the reply.


p.s. Time to to home

Sincerely
Lee
  • #2,469
  • Edited 4:56am Sep 20, 2010 4:44am | Edited 4:56am
My pleasure, Tradpat

Continuing on..

So what do I anticipate on gbp/nzd?

Currently, this is what I want (green arrow)

http://img697.imageshack.us/img697/2656/aa1on.png

I dont know what the market will do.

But the single trade that could have been taken on the 1hr TF above in my previous post is participating into the market with the current flow. And that is the best any trader can do.

Just on a side topic to above chart.

Please allow me to show you the exact same chart above in 1ema line chart

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/7070/aa1.png

For me the 1ema chart is much clearer but perhaps this is only my personal focal interpretation.
  • #2,470
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:53am Sep 20, 2010 4:53am
I do not wish to divert off the current intentions by leading into a description about my price action interpretation.

Please pm me if you wish to ask price action interpretation or if you have the time you will find the answers in the previous pages of this thread.

Everything is exactly the same as I always did.

I will slowly and eventually explain everything as they unfold. It will be clearer as VEEFX and myself work further down.

Can anyone direct me to a pair with price approaching 200ema? Preferably within 20-40 pip away.
  • #2,471
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:59am Sep 20, 2010 4:59am
Here's a Eur/Chf... possible volatile breakout?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #2,472
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:00am Sep 20, 2010 5:00am
Quoting pipEASY
I do not wish to divert off the current intentions by leading into a description about my price action interpretation.

Please pm me if you wish to ask price action interpretation or if you have the time you will find the answers in the previous pages of this thread.

Everything is exactly the same as I always did.

I will slowly and eventually explain everything as they unfold. It will be clearer as VEEFX and myself work further down.

Can anyone direct me to a pair with price approaching 200ema? Preferably within 20-40...
Hi Graeme , I'm looking right now at some pairs and some possible candidate seems to be EURCHF, GBPCAD and USDJPY all of these around 40 pips from 200 EMA as in the attached screenshot (number in top right corner is distance in pips from ema200).

Thank You

Cheers,
Skyline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,473
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:00am Sep 20, 2010 5:00am
Ok have i got this,

cylcle = 1000 pips (target profit minimum.)
risk /stop loss = 10 pips per entry.
( therefore we can have 100 losers to actually lose money.)
That also gives us the 1:100 r/r. Or broken down 10:1000 r/r
So as long as we win 1000 pips more than one time in one hundred,

eg :-
Lose 99 win 1 == profit 10 pips
lose 98 win 2 = profit 20 pips
lose 97 win 3 = profit 30 pips

But I do realise aiming for 1000 pips winners could be weeks/ months away .

Have i got it ?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #2,474
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:14am Sep 20, 2010 5:14am
Quoting dongsky
Here's a Eur/Chf... possible volatile breakout?
Good evening, dongsky

Thank you very much for the input.

Perfect example.

Please allow me to start without VEEFX for now.

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/8601/aa1u.png

This is my interpretation and my anticipation and my forecast

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/7575/aa2v.png

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/6360/aa2i.png

Current 1hr

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/7500/aa2hz.png

Having said the above entry on 1hr timeframe. This opportunity is over if price closes above the mini range anywhere in the red area. Why? Cause that would mean price closed against my anticipation and became an engulf/breakout on the wrong direction. Do you understand?

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/9854/aa2p.png
  • #2,475
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:32am Sep 20, 2010 5:32am
Quoting paul1
Ok have i got this,

cylcle = 1000 pips (target profit minimum.)
risk /stop loss = 10 pips per entry.
( therefore we can have 100 losers to actually lose money.)
That also gives us the 1:100 r/r. Or broken down 10:1000 r/r
So as long as we win 1000 pips more than one time in one hundred,

eg :-
Lose 99 win 1 == profit 10 pips
lose 98 win 2 = profit 20 pips
lose 97 win 3 = profit 30 pips

But I do realise aiming for 1000 pips winners could be weeks/ months away .

Have i got it ?
Good evening, Paul1 and Skyline

Sorry to address both of you gentlemen in one post.

Skyline - thank you

Paul1.

This is very important for everyone.

You said something golden. Something large institution do everyday.

You have got the numbers correct in your calculations.

Lets focus on your last sentence.

"But I do realise aiming for 1000 pips winners could be weeks/ months away ."

What if...

What if...

There are methods (correct term is price irregularity) when backtested for last several years shows that the occurence is less than 2 months...... or definitely less than 1:100.

You will have periods where 2 or 3 of them happen within a month and then months of nothing until 1 win and then few months of nothing and then 2 or 3 of them happening again. What is that? Its called law of uneven distribution

Remember tossing the coin 100 times..

It has 50% head and 50% tail chance. How do you explain streaks of 14 wins of tail and then streaks of 13 wins of heads from 50% win rate on each toss..??

That is price irregularity and as long it happens more often than your set r:r, you will create unimaginable wealth.
  • #2,476
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:43am Sep 20, 2010 5:43am
Let us all wait for VEEFX and adhere to our objective.

Please feel free to pm me any questions.

Right now, it wont make much sense but I assure you the further VEEFX and I collaborate everything will be clearer.

I will guide VEEFX hands to build it together and show all at the same time how.

I sincerely hope this project will have a far more direct and concise impact to all.

If many of the traders do click at the end of my collaboration with VEEFX, I will start another 2 week project and personalise my showing to you directly.

Lets hope there is no downfall till that happens and hope I can complete it to everyones satisfaction.

Sincerely,

Graeme

P.S Dinner for myself. Good night all

EDIT: I believe it is currently very late in california. Very early morning I say. Lets allow some rest for VEEFX. I will continue with him.
  • #2,477
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:59am Sep 20, 2010 5:59am
Quoting paul1
Ok have i got this,

cylcle = 1000 pips (target profit minimum.)
risk /stop loss = 10 pips per entry.
( therefore we can have 100 losers to actually lose money.)
That also gives us the 1:100 r/r. Or broken down 10:1000 r/r
So as long as we win 1000 pips more than one time in one hundred,

eg :-
Lose 99 win 1 == profit 10 pips
lose 98 win 2 = profit 20 pips
lose 97 win 3 = profit 30 pips

But I do realise aiming for 1000 pips winners could be weeks/ months away .

Have i got it ?
Paul,

The calculations are not quite correct. If they were - the whole system here will be unprofitable.

win 1 loose 99 is a non loss (+10 pips). loosing 98 and winning 2 is a win of 1020 pips. 2030 if you win 3 and loose 97 and so on.
The concept that is tried to convey to you is of roulette tables and card games: Probability. the only difference is that the odds in forex are supposedly on your favor. The only reason they are is because of long trends. that is all.

fun_demental
  • #2,478
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:04am Sep 20, 2010 6:04am
Quoting Fun Demental
Paul,

The calculations are not quite correct. If they were - the whole system here will be unprofitable.

win 1 loose 99 is a non loss (+10 pips). loosing 98 and winning 2 is a win of 1020 pips. 2030 if you win 3 and loose 97 and so on.
The concept that is tried to convey to you is of roulette tables and card games: Probability. the only difference is that the odds in forex are supposedly on your favor. The only reason they are is because of trends. that is all.
Good observation,

I miss read paul1.

2 wins would be not +20. What paul was meant to say is 98 losses before 1 win.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #2,479
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:18am Sep 20, 2010 6:18am
Quoting pipEASY
Good afternoon, all

Thank you for your patience.

Let us continue, but first I will answer VEEFX questions

(1)
- On H4, we are looking only at 200 EMA as a early alert/warning setup.
- On H1/M15, we completely ignore where 200EMA is located and just focus on PA/focal interpretation/candle patterns to trigger tight entries?

Yes. 200ema is only a reference guide to the 'area' we will start trading. It is ignored when looking for entries.

(2) Is it considered a false alert if price has pierced 200EMA several times like in the attached...

Welcome back Graeme!! Good to see you back!!

TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #2,480
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:30am Sep 20, 2010 6:30am
Update to my USDJPY trade taken last night. Not much movement (yet) but still in the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy h4 09 20 10.gif Size: 22 KB
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