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  • #2,441
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:06pm Sep 19, 2010 11:06pm
Thanks, Veef, for your good questions!
Aspiring traders or novices like me will appreciate your contributions.

Good trading.

Cheers
  • #2,442
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:16pm Sep 19, 2010 11:16pm
Question?

Will someone please help me understand what is meant by 1 per 4 cycle, as used, in the sentence below? Thanks,



Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 20 pip risk that will run for 80 pips take profit but the occurences of such opportunity must be less than 1 per 4 cycle.
T
  • #2,443
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:29pm Sep 19, 2010 11:29pm
Quoting tmanbone
Question?

Will someone please help me understand what is meant by 1 per 4 cycle, as used, in the sentence below? Thanks,



Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 20 pip risk that will run for 80 pips take profit but the occurences of such opportunity must be less than 1 per 4 cycle.

Tmanbone,

Read and re-read the following two posts for the answer to your question.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2429
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2431



Bruce
  • #2,444
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:41pm Sep 19, 2010 11:41pm
Welcom Back Graeme....I personally missed you a lot and your posts.....I have atleast read this thread for 3 times

Hope you are doing great on the Health side
  • #2,445
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:41pm Sep 19, 2010 11:41pm
Good to see you here, TradPat, and thanks for leading me to this thread.
Indeed it is informative and full of real-live educational materials.

Thank you for taking time to share, Greame.
I will be watching and learning silently at the side line with you.

S.
  • #2,446
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:47pm Sep 19, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting brucech
Tmanbone,

Read and re-read the following two posts for the answer to your question.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2429
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2431



Bruce
But in this case shouldn't it read less than 4 per 1 cycle?
T
  • #2,447
  • Sep 20, 2010 12:07am Sep 20, 2010 12:07am
Quoting brucech
Tmanbone,

Read and re-read the following two posts for the answer to your question.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2429
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2431



Bruce
well... I thought I clearly understood our mission statement but now re-reading for the 4th time, I am struggling with the words must be less in our mission statement...

Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 20 pip risk that will run for 80 pips take profit but the occurences of such opportunity must be less than 1 per 4 cycle.

I think it should be 'atleast 1 per 4 cycle' or "less than 4 per 1 cycle" as tmanbone mentioned.

Perhaps Graeme could clarify once he returns. We have to get our mission statement straight in our head first

- Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,448
  • Sep 20, 2010 12:19am Sep 20, 2010 12:19am
Quoting VEEFX
well... I thought I clearly understood our mission statement but now re-reading for the 4th time, I am struggling with the words must be less in our mission statement...

Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 20 pip risk that will run for 80 pips take profit but the occurences of such opportunity must be less than 1 per 4 cycle.

I think it should be 'atleast 1 per 4 cycle' or "less than 4 per 1 cycle" as tmanbone mentioned.

Perhaps Graeme could clarify once he returns....
Im thinking this is relative to our risk reward we decided on at 1:4,
if we can acheive the 80 pip profit target say once every 3 times(this is less) we are in the money, but we do not want to achieve this once every 5 times we try (this is more) or we are not covered by our risk reward therom.

well this is how i see it

cheers
Geoff
  • #2,449
  • Sep 20, 2010 12:24am Sep 20, 2010 12:24am
Quoting VEEFX
well... I thought I clearly understood our mission statement but now re-reading for the 4th time, I am struggling with the words must be less in our mission statement...

Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 20 pip risk that will run for 80 pips take profit but the occurences of such opportunity must be less than 1 per 4 cycle.

I think it should be 'atleast 1 per 4 cycle' or "less than 4 per 1 cycle" as tmanbone mentioned.

Perhaps Graeme could clarify once he returns....
Correct. In my mind I'm interpreting cycle as each time H4 price comes within the desired range of the 200ema and in turn thinking 4 or less attempts at making profit or BE. We may have to define cycle and what constitutes one.
T
  • #2,450
  • Sep 20, 2010 12:27am Sep 20, 2010 12:27am
Graeme,

Could I receive your the same wisdom you mention below you will provide to Tradpat ? If possible, Thank you.

Krk

Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, Tradpat

Yes, im happy to recommend few tips and I will PM you within 2 days. Apologies for the delay.
  • #2,451
  • Sep 20, 2010 12:38am Sep 20, 2010 12:38am
In this particular R:R we have 1:4.

Let us take notice that Sir Graeme gave an example of 1:100 in his theorem subject.

I'm not getting it clear as well yet.
  • #2,452
  • Sep 20, 2010 12:56am Sep 20, 2010 12:56am
Hey Vee, my apologies for missing that part about 1H or less in regards to my timeframe comment in a prior post.

With kind regards,
MK
  • #2,453
  • Sep 20, 2010 1:59am Sep 20, 2010 1:59am
Good afternoon, all

Thank you for your patience.

Let us continue, but first I will answer VEEFX questions

(1)
- On H4, we are looking only at 200 EMA as a early alert/warning setup.
- On H1/M15, we completely ignore where 200EMA is located and just focus on PA/focal interpretation/candle patterns to trigger tight entries?

Yes. 200ema is only a reference guide to the 'area' we will start trading. It is ignored when looking for entries.

(2) Is it considered a false alert if price has pierced 200EMA several times like in the attached chart? To me, we have arrived a bit late on GBP/NZD pair

Price stalls often around 200 ema. It is just part of trading and we will minimize/avoid the range period together and I will show all how.

(3) You mentioned hindsight on H4. Did you mean hindsight 'direction' on whether 200 ema is above or below the current price and then only take trades in the direction of hindsight?

200ema will signal the area we are interested in entering and does not dictate any direction. Price action on 4hr/1hr will determine the direction and I will guide you more.

In regards to the question that surrounds less than 1 out of 4 cycle.

Quick mathematic question:

What happens if, you have 20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 5 cycle occurence??

What happens if, you have 20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 3 cycle occurence??

My 1 out of 100 cycle example @ post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2374

shows that I currently trade 10 SL and 1000 TP. This is 1:100 r:r. What happens if the win occurence is higher than 1:100?? What happens in the long run?

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #2,454
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:02am Sep 20, 2010 2:02am
... cont from post 2400

Here is my algorithm, says the newb, as he's trying to make sense of all that's been said: Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 1 pip risk, 50 per day, that will run for 1000 pips take profit minimum but the occurences of such opportunity must/should/can/may be less than 1 per 10 cycle/session/set/trades.

Any ideas ? asks newb because he hasn't the faintest idea how or wher to even start looking. Crossing of the 200 ema? where did I hear that pop track around in this forum?

fun_demental
  • #2,455
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:08am Sep 20, 2010 2:08am
VEEFX,

I know you now have alot of responsibility and I will guide you thoroughly.

Please see these charts.

This is what we want to achieve together.

eur/chf 4hr

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/4259/aa1g.png

gbp/jpy 4hr

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/4333/aa2e.png

We are going to do it live together and show it to rest of the readers.

Any questions?

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #2,456
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:14am Sep 20, 2010 2:14am
Quoting Fun Demental
... cont from post 2400

Here is my algorithm, says the newb, as he's trying to make sense of all that's been said: Im looking for, opportunities that are less than 1 pip risk, 50 per day, that will run for 1000 pips take profit minimum but the occurences of such opportunity must/should/can/may be less than 1 per 10 cycle/session/set/trades.

Any ideas ? asks newb because he hasn't the faintest idea how or wher to even start looking. Crossing of the 200 ema? where did I hear that pop track around in this forum?

fun_demental
Good afternoon, fun_demental

Thank you for your posts.

I understand where you are coming from and I understand what you are really asking.

Unfortunately, I might not have the answer you are looking for but I do have answers to questions you might ask in the future when your trading does not progress to your expectation. Im not looking down on you nor any disrespect but Im happy to assist to hasten your learning curve.

There are too many posts in this thread which I apologize and it is mind boggling for any reader to start reading it all and then to digest the information before more is posted.

Perhaps, this new project between myself and VEEFX for the viewing of all add enlightment to your learning.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #2,457
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:21am Sep 20, 2010 2:21am
I was wondering if someone would be kind enough to answer my question. I have been reading the thread will real interest and think it is brilliant but I am having some trouble understanding the concept, mainly because I am not particularly bright I suppose (but I am trying really hard). I wanted to ask why it is necessary to have tight stops if one is really so sure of the trend? Why not just have wider stops and let the market "breathe"? Wouldn't the ones you lose be counter-acted by those trades that you were not taken out of so readily,with a tight stop, that kept on running? I suppose I am just really confused. Apologies in advance. Cheers.

Mark
  • #2,458
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:23am Sep 20, 2010 2:23am
Quick mathematic question:

What happens if, you have 20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 5 cycle occurence??

What happens if, you have 20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 3 cycle occurence??

My 1 out of 100 cycle example @ post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2374

shows that I currently trade 10 SL and 1000 TP. This is 1:100 r:r. What happens if the win occurence is higher than 1:100?? What happens in the long run?

Apologies, but I will answer myself and you can verify it for yourself.

20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 5 cycle occurence??

You lose money in the wrong run. That is negative expectancy.

20 SL and 80 TP but after 100 rounds you find that you had 1 (win) out of 3 cycle occurence

You win money in the wrong run. That is positive expectancy.

What happens if the win occurence is higher than 1:100?? What happens in the long run?

You lose money if the reward is x100 but you find that you are finding 1 win occurence in more than 100+ rounds.

This is simple statistics.

VEEFX, do you understand this?

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #2,459
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:27am Sep 20, 2010 2:27am
Quoting pipEASY
VEEFX,

I know you now have alot of responsibility and I will guide you thoroughly.

Please see these charts.

This is what we want to achieve together.

eur/chf 4hr

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/4259/aa1g.png

gbp/jpy 4hr

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/4333/aa2e.png

We are going to do it live together and show it to rest of the readers.

Any questions?

Sincerely,

Graeme
Welcome back Graeme. I have no questions so far. While you were gone, I was busy looking at all the pairs in my platform and came up with my watchlist for the following pairs that are 'near' the 200ema.

eurnzd, eurchf, eurhuf, cadchf, audchf, gbpnzd, gbpcad, gbpchf, usdmxn
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,460
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:43am Sep 20, 2010 2:43am
Quoting VEEFX
Welcome back Graeme. I have no questions so far. While you were gone, I was busy looking at all the pairs in my platform and came up with my watchlist for the following pairs that are 'near' the 200ema.

eurnzd, eurchf, eurhuf, cadchf, audchf, gbpnzd, gbpcad, gbpchf, usdmxn
Good afternoon, VEEFX

Please do not hold back any questions in the thread and also any other readers as well. For the other readers, please feel free to ask however may I please request to send me the questions through private messaging.

VEEFX, so it begins.

May I please suggest leaving the exotics out for this project as FXCM does not support them for now. Is that ok?

cad/chf 4hr - Looks like we just missed it.

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/258/aa1h.png

cad/chf 1hr - This is my price interpretation

http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/4135/aa2k.png

However, VEEFX I would keep this pair close.

Why?

Do we really need to be at the exact pip value of a good opportunity? We can take a slice of the good action near the area.

If this setup works then we could be entering around the area of the green area.

Never rush. We are always too early.

http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/4084/aa2w.png
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