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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #201
  • Sep 19, 2010 6:06am Sep 19, 2010 6:06am
Right... got to pop out for a little while now; will be back to continue answering questions later!

Regards,

Dan
  • #202
  • Sep 19, 2010 10:44am Sep 19, 2010 10:44am
I thought posting two charts may help in bettering my understanding. The below are daily charts.

As both trends appear upward (at least daily and weekly view) would we only consider LONG entries? Or would we consider going short if the setup was right?

Personally I am seeking longer term trades and therefore would be reluctant to trade against the trend.

AUD/CAD:
- Daily and weekly trends are UP.
- Would we wait for a break above the earlier high to enter high?
(0.970 - flagged with blue arrow on chart)
- Or would we be cautious of trend lines of channel and wait for a further retracement?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1284910390

AUD/USD:
- Daily and weekly trends are UP.
- Recent close formed a bearish pin bar.
- Wait for retracement and resumption of trend for LONG position?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1284910390
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad2.png Size: 81 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd2.png Size: 82 KB
  • #203
  • Sep 19, 2010 12:12pm Sep 19, 2010 12:12pm
Hi Dannyboy,just sighning into your great thread ,enjoyed your last one and this one looks even better.Thankyou for your time out.
  • #204
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:23pm Sep 19, 2010 11:23pm
You've answered all my questions satisfactorily. Thanks.

Just a question. In 2009, you use the 100 pips trailing SL, correct? How are your returns this year, compare to 2009, so far. (just factoring only the USD pairs)




Quoting DanUK
Hi Entropy,

No I didn't have any trades there/then. Is there something you see that you might have sold? If so please point it out and I will take a look - but I didn't see anything tradable.

Regards,

Dan

Quoting DanUK
Hello again,

At that time I was looking for an entry in the 1.3500/1.3600 area......
  • #205
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:08am Sep 20, 2010 6:08am
I have just done a google search for " Trendline Scanner" (idle hands)

"The Ramp Chart Pattern Recognition" scanner looks interesting but may be more useful for stock trading where a large number of stocks are considered?

I have NO experience in using this software!!

Has anyone used it and found it useful?

Peter
  • #206
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:31am Sep 20, 2010 6:31am
Hi Dan,

Well the thread looks like its going very well, i go away for a week and have to catchup through 8 pages of posts! lol

I have attached a couple of charts i found interesting:

euraud:
I am currently short of the S&R area shown on the chart.

usdsgd:
Looking to short if price makes it up to 1.3450 area.

Thats all i can find that i would call treatable in the charts i monitor at the moment.
All comments welcome.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #207
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:07am Sep 20, 2010 8:07am
Quoting bez3000
Hi Dan,

Well the thread looks like its going very well, i go away for a week and have to catchup through 8 pages of posts! lol

I have attached a couple of charts i found interesting:

euraud:
I am currently short of the S&R area shown on the chart.

usdsgd:
Looking to short if price makes it up to 1.3450 area.

Thats all i can find that i would call treatable in the charts i monitor at the moment.
All comments welcome.
Already in that trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenhunter_01 Sep. 19 00.07.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #208
  • Sep 21, 2010 2:27am Sep 21, 2010 2:27am
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #209
  • Sep 21, 2010 9:15am Sep 21, 2010 9:15am
Wherefore hast thou forsaken us, oh great Commander?
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #210
  • Sep 21, 2010 9:56am Sep 21, 2010 9:56am
Quoting gododdin
Wherefore hast thou forsaken us, oh great Commander?
Lol! Hi guys, sorry it's taking a while to get back to you... I'm having a bit of a hectic week so far and haven't had the time to get back to this thread! I will return as soon as I can (hopefully I will be free as from tomorrow afternoon).
  • #211
  • Sep 21, 2010 7:13pm Sep 21, 2010 7:13pm
Set your alarms this could be on the playbook today, 50% retrace of last rally
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #212
  • Edited 8:54pm Sep 21, 2010 7:52pm | Edited 8:54pm
Hi Dan the man,

It seems as though you have stolen my methods!
How you doin?

No need to ask about your set up, Re above. Love your crazy avator.

I wanted to ask you about your money management.

Long term position trading -Do you adhere to this general 2% risk rule per entry and what about the general rule of not having more than 30% on various trades at risk at any one time.
What is your outlook on risk reward ratio, when you have such long term hopes for the trades?

I often wonder if this 2% and 2:1R/R is really aimed at day and swing traders if so where does that leave us?

and - why you are you here? Not in a philosophical way, but what are you hoping to get from this thread?

Jason
  • #213
  • Edited 1:54am Sep 22, 2010 12:49am | Edited 1:54am
Quoting MrCBee
Set your alarms this could be on the playbook today, 50% retrace of last rally

Hi MrCbee
Just thought I'd add my thoughts to your chart analysis. I see the recent move higher due to Japanise monetery intervention to support the JPY. The recent high bounced off daily resistance and a daily T/L which suggests to me that there are still sellers in the market at these levels. If I were to trade this (which I'm not), I would waite for the 50% fib to be broken and then retrace back upto that area for a short position back into the market in the direction of the daily trend. Sorry I can't post a chart but I'm at work at the moment

By the way Dan, great thread. I hope to learn lots
  • #214
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:34am Sep 22, 2010 7:34am
The uptrend has officially resumed imho. Now I am looking to add to my position to get the most out of the trend.
  • #215
  • Sep 23, 2010 3:53am Sep 23, 2010 3:53am
Quoting MrCBee
Dan have a look at this CHF/JPY chart would this be the sort of trades you look for?
Or would you prefer to focus on the longer term trend and larger swing highs and lows for the fibs?
because the longer term trend with this pair is down and that fib only uses a few days data.

Im still going to keep my eye on this because the yen may fall further with hints of more BOJ intervention. I don't want to be on the wrong side of that if it happens again.
Hi MrCBee,

If you aren't sure about a trend you have two options... the first is to stay away from it until price shows it's hand or you can look for a signal in either direction at sensible points of interest.

In your chart you have correctly identified the counter-trend trendline - if you look for key s/r levels and triggers at them (in conjunction with your use of trendlines/fib retracements etc) you will still be taking high probability setups but you will have to be a little more careful with your trade management.

I shall post a chart showing what I would consider to be areas of interest and price is currently pushing up through one of these areas (near 85.00) and ideally I would wait for price to move further up and then come back to retest this level before entering long.

I would note also that I do have a long trade on from the lower s/r level but that would be a counter-trend position which I do not advocate just yet - I would like us to focus on with trend entries for the time being.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #216
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:01am Sep 23, 2010 4:01am
Quoting EricOutDaRed
Hello all. I am a little gun shy posting here as I am extremely new to FX. I have a few quetions that I need to ask as a check on learning if you will.

1) When I look at a daily chart and establish that there is a downward trend, am I waiting for the peak of a swing-high retracement to take place before going short with the pair? Is this the "Big Picture" of the strategy, and we use S/R and Candlestick patterns to indicate the end of the swing and enter the pair?

2)In the initial lesson you showed two charts. One was the daily USDJPY showing...
Hello EricOutDaRed,

In response to your questions...

1. Yes, when price is trending down we are waiting for price to retrace back upwards to a support/resistance level to look for a selling opportunity.

2. In that particular example I was just trying to show that an uptrend showing on an H4 chart might seem like the prevailing trend but in fact it was just a retracement in the daily trend. In that example we could have traded the H4 charts up whilst waiting for the daily trend to resume however I would prefer it if we all stay with the daily timeframe and trading with the trend only for the time being.

Hope that helps to clear things up! Please feel free to continue asking questions though if it doesn't!

Regards,

Dan
  • #217
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:17am Sep 23, 2010 4:17am
Quoting EricOutDaRed
Thank you gododdin for the reply and your encouragement. I did believe counter trend trading is what I would have been referring to. However, my interpretation of the chart at the time of the retracement would had been that it was not a retracement at all and a change in the trend entirely and therefore we would had been trading with the trend.
In other words, for the given example I would have had no idea that around 7 Aug the USDJPY would pivot and the downward trend would resume.

I guess this arises another question and that is, when reading...
Hello again,

Thank you - I'm glad I've been able to help!

To some extent so long as you are taking good setups at high probability locations your interpretation of the trend does not have to be spot on. Of course I am not saying you should take any trade regardless... the aim is to be in the trend so that our trades have the highest chance of survival but you don't have to get too obsessed with being right all the time - in most cases price will show you the way and the more you trade this way the easier such interpretation becomes.

Regards,

Dan
  • #218
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:47am Sep 23, 2010 4:47am
Quoting lizpet
Hi Entropy/Dan

I think that's a fair question
At your exit point, a channel could not be drawn, so that theory is out (sorry kiwi trader)

To answer your question, I think Dan looks to exit at a S/R level, preferably "a round number" with confirmation of a trend change using lower lo / lower high sequence breakdown

Referring to your exit:
Following right on your exit - price did infact change to higher lo, higher hi sequence (uptrend)

So why did we not exit?
Maybe because:
1 The fact that price gapped up at your exit, we could expect the...
Hi Peter,

Hopefully most of your questions have been answered by my other posts.

With regards to the "peaks and troughs" though - the best way to view them is to zoom your chart out as far as it goes. It's a visual thing only, there are no real rules to it - just like anything else, the more you do it the better you get.

Sorry I can't really offer any more guidance than that - but trust me that it gets easier with practice and the thing to remember is that if a particular chart is not clear move on to another currency, one that is clearer to you!

Regards,

Dan
  • #219
  • Sep 23, 2010 5:02am Sep 23, 2010 5:02am
Quoting gododdin
Hi Eric - you are right about Dan!

you raise some good points that I too struggle with. I've put together a quick diagram (using Paint so it's pretty rough!) and would be very grateful to have Dan's take on this.

Dan -you said in another post that you would be happy to discuss further the role that major S/R has in showing us where the trend is going to change. Would it be relevant to this?

Many thanks
Hi gododdin,

It is the break of the most recent lower high (in a down trend) that confirms the change of direction (as per amended attachment).

However this does not yet involve key s/r levels... I am also looking at the key levels (that you and I discussed in some earlier posts) to gauge whether or not the trend is changing - this is perhaps the most important test.

If for example the most recent lower high breaks just before hitting a key level I will wait to see what happens at that level - if it holds then I would assume the downtrend will continue but if it breaks I will look for price to move higher and then come back to retest the level. If the retest fails then this is where the trend change is confirmed.
Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #220
  • Sep 23, 2010 5:05am Sep 23, 2010 5:05am
Quoting lite27
Hello Dan, please, lets we start to identify long term trading opportunities which are ready or forming now, using charts. It would be the best way to master great staff you teatch us. We can place charts and discuss the situation. Practic is the best way to become a master. By the way, I noticed that fibo levels on 1H help much to enter in trend on retracement. Thank you very much for your great and clear teatching! Regards,
Hello lite27,

1 hour charts are not really applicable to my trading strategy but you are right, the levels help.

Live trading examples will take place in the future but I am not looking to turn this thread into a signal service. It will be for anyone who wants to post/discuss potential setups so if you have something you want to discuss please post a chart and we can all have a look.

Regards,

Dan
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