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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #253,961
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:00am Sep 17, 2010 6:00am
Hi Cloggie,

Have seen a lot of posts from you and you seem pretty well respected by the other posters.

I agree that MM and patience are key to progression. You've talked a few times about waiting for the easy trades. I wonder what is your definition of an easy trade, apart from waiting for your indis and PA to line up ?

Thanks

V
  • #253,962
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:00am Sep 17, 2010 6:00am
Quoting dil
Yeah if ,you want want to be profitable invest your time ,,, theres a newbies who think 30 minutes for forex and they're a milionaire...

It takes 10,000 hours to get halfway decent in this business. There are no shortcuts to screen time.
  • #253,963
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:03am Sep 17, 2010 6:03am
Quoting Sutts
It would really help the strugglers (like myself) if you could point a few of these obvious and easy trades out Cloggie. A few examples and I might catch on! I hope the short I mentioned above classed as a decent trade?

The obvious trades are the rejections of higher TF SR's. That's what I am looking for in my intraday trades, get a confirmed rejection and you are good for 40-80 pips, the other ones are the London open, NY open, profit taking at the closes, the equity rallies and the news. Those are pretty much the drivers for my day's trading.

When I start my day, I plan the areas of consolidation I anticipate and trade the confirmed breaks, the areas I watch are either price driven or time driven.

Doing that does mean that you spend most of the day behind the screens, but the succesrate waiting for the obvious trades is pretty big. It does mean that you can be out of the market for hours on end just waiting for the right setup.
  • #253,964
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:05am Sep 17, 2010 6:05am
Quoting cloggie
I am the same way, I usually start right before Franky and finish at the NY close, 5 days a week. Once the noobs here figure out that you don't have to anticipate each and every move and just trade the obvious and easy ones, this business becomes extremely profitable.

Trying to pick the tops and bottoms is far from clever, it is risky and the succesrate over a longer period is not good enough to last in this business.

Just trade the few easy trades a day and keep increasing your lotsize and Bob's your uncle.
Sounds great, perhaps you will share one of your easy entries with us ignorant "noobs" sometime so we can have a better idea ofr your criteria, not being sarcastic as I always read your posts and consider them informative.
  • #253,965
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:05am Sep 17, 2010 6:05am
Quoting iqyu5an
how u know ? any confirmation already ? why u not say 1.5649 is the support...
1 pip is not big deal. Support because it was resistance before. It was broken. Now it is support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pound support.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #253,966
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:06am Sep 17, 2010 6:06am
Quoting cloggie
The obvious trades are the rejections of higher TF SR's. That's what I am looking for in my intraday trades, get a confirmed rejection and you are good for 40-80 pips, the other ones are the London open, NY open, profit taking at the closes, the equity rallies and the news. Those are pretty much the drivers for my day's trading.

yup..thats all i do..but i will admit this trade i have was reckless..i entered without confirmations, showed no discipline except for holding my nerve while in it..when i go in bigger i certainly wont do this..

i found an interesting paradox..waiting for confirmation means higher risk exposure but higher probability to be right..and i believe lots of people struggle with this..
  • #253,967
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:07am Sep 17, 2010 6:07am
Quoting geosanuy
Sounds great, perhaps you will share one of your easy entries with us ignorant "noobs" sometime so we can have a better idea ofr your criteria, not being sarcastic as I always read your posts and consider them informative.

What times (GMT) do you usually trade?
  • #253,968
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:08am Sep 17, 2010 6:08am
Quoting cloggie
The obvious trades are the rejections of higher TF SR's. That's what I am looking for in my intraday trades, get a confirmed rejection and you are good for 40-80 pips, the other ones are the London open, NY open, profit taking at the closes, the equity rallies and the news. Those are pretty much the drivers for my day's trading.

When I start my day, I plan the areas of consolidation I anticipate and trade the confirmed breaks, the areas I watch are either price driven or time driven.

Doing that does mean that you spend most of the day behind the...
Thanks for that. Do we have the makings of a obvious long right now? Strong up move, pullback to 50-61.8 region which coincides with a decent H1/H4 prior resistance hopefully turned support area.

Thanks
  • #253,969
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:09am Sep 17, 2010 6:09am
Quoting nAVIN2007

i found an interesting paradox..waiting for confirmation means higher risk exposure but higher probability to be right

After all these years of doing this, I still run a demo account where I work on new setups, I tend to demotrade any new thinking for about 6 months so I can work on the risk exposure and the loss ratio, I then open a small live account and keep that just for the new setup for another 6 months until I am happy with the audit process, I then add the setup to my intraday live account and trade the plan.
  • #253,970
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:12am Sep 17, 2010 6:12am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks for that. Do we have the makings of a obvious long right now? Strong up move, pullback to 50-61.8 region which coincides with a decent H1/H4 prior resistance hopefully turned support area.

Thanks

Cable rarely jumps of a SR like a wet cat of an electric fence, she will consolidate first. Cable is the hardest currency for directional reversals. So far we have had a text book LO, now just wait to see where she goes next. Keep an eye on the futures and Gold here.
  • #253,971
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:12am Sep 17, 2010 6:12am
Demo account is crap , never recommed to train on that
  • #253,972
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:13am Sep 17, 2010 6:13am
Quoting scurt
support is at 5640-5650, it is obviouse if you use H1 and H4 chart, it is a place where intraday traders will take profit target, or long players have their stop...
Have you see see any sign it would stop there or are you insisting it must stop?
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #253,973
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:17am Sep 17, 2010 6:17am
Right @ 100% of it's 20day average pip range (119% of the 13 week average pip range,) cable finds supply @ that previously mentioned 61.8% of the main 5997-5296 move....2 attempts at that Hi, both resulting in good divergence plays on 1min +...5min is shown below with the first attempt at pount A, then 2nd attempt @ B for a triple bearish divergence play in the osma...(top oscillator)

Above current intrday Hi and that 61.8% fib, the 76.4% of the 5907-5296 is @ 5763 with 76,4% of the longer 5997-5296 @ 5830.

U.s Inflation data etc later...

G/L

http://www.easy-upload.net/fichiers/z.2010917131645.gif
ex member
  • #253,974
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:17am Sep 17, 2010 6:17am
Quoting cloggie
Cable rarely jumps of a SR like a wet cat of an electric fence, she will consolidate first. Cable is the hardest currency for directional reversals. So far we have had a text book LO, now just wait to see where she goes next. Keep an eye on the futures and Gold here.
Thanks Cloggie, I'll do that. I am watching Gold but I don't know of a free source of Futures charts. Any ideas please?
  • #253,975
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:17am Sep 17, 2010 6:17am
Cloggie:
Normally I trade GMT 0600-0900 for work reasons, basically Euro and London openings.
  • #253,976
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:18am Sep 17, 2010 6:18am
I don`t say that will stop there, but I agree with fxghostthat according to TA I will mark support and resistance... and thats 5640-5650... If I dont do that, and the price jump of this range that will be little late to say aaah... that was support... depends on TF I trade I will look for reversal pattern to get long at this area... thats it...

and of course looking at many things around like upward sloping H1 TL, that we are on 50%fibo move which is ussualy turning point etc...

Quoting Precap2
Have you see see any sign it would stop there or are you insisting it must stop?
  • #253,977
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:20am Sep 17, 2010 6:20am
BTW: IE9 (Beta) working fine up to now....

http://www.easy-upload.net/fichiers/z.2010917131949.gif

G/L
ex member
  • #253,978
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:21am Sep 17, 2010 6:21am
Quoting geosanuy
Cloggie:
Normally I trade GMT 0600-0900 for work reasons, basically Euro and London openings.

The thing you need to focus on then is the Franky fake and the London open. London collects orders all night long and puts them out to market at the open, just find a range and trade the break out. I would ignore the Franky fake and just focus on the London open. On an average day the LO is good for 50-80 pips, just find the direction and follow the crowd.

There are plenty of London strategies available, spend some time on google and find one that suits you.

Just spend the first hour of your day looking at the price, to get a feel for the market and to see if Franky is truly a fake. Then focus on the London open and see where she takes you.
  • #253,979
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:23am Sep 17, 2010 6:23am
Quoting cloggie
Cable rarely jumps of a SR like a wet cat of an electric fence, she will consolidate first. Cable is the hardest currency for directional reversals. So far we have had a text book LO, now just wait to see where she goes next. Keep an eye on the futures and Gold here.
It's doing something interesting on fib. Take a quick look at my attached chart.
Attached Image
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #253,980
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:23am Sep 17, 2010 6:23am
Thats very interesting this is the first time i heard someone talk about this, i've always thought about it while i trade but never really did the research on it, is it better to wait for the confirmation or if your confident enough to take it right away. If I'm trading off a trendline or S&R, when i wait for a confirmation ( a higher high, higher TF candle close, or a candlestick reversal pattern) the further it start moving away from the S or R, then the bigger my SL will be.

Navin, what kind of things do u look for interms of confirmation?

Quoting nAVIN2007
yup..thats all i do..but i will admit this trade i have was reckless..i entered without confirmations, showed no discipline except for holding my nerve while in it..when i go in bigger i certainly wont do this..

i found an interesting paradox..waiting for confirmation means higher risk exposure but higher probability to be right..and i believe lots of people struggle with this..
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