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Basket 14 EA System

  • #361
  • Sep 15, 2010 7:53pm Sep 15, 2010 7:53pm
Hi MC,

On the topic of the exceedence trigger, should your code be using shift 1 instead of shift 0 with the iHighest code?
  • #362
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:21pm Sep 15, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting MetaCoder
Just from reading your post, it looks like you are thinking along the lines of a direction I want to go. It will take me a while to digest the in'dicator. Thanks!
Good, I thought we were on the same page.

Essentially it seems to me that what we are trying to do with these EA's is ride the contraction & expansion of the basket of currency pairs around the linear regression point (ie. mean reversion). The indicator I knocked up was a very crude first attempt at trying to measure at which point we are in the cycle. The big question is, over what time period should the regression point be calculated? I chose two hours as a starting point because I noticed that when a basket closes in profit without any trimming that it generally is within a couple of hours.

Thinking more about this, what we really want to do is capitalise on those pairs which have deviated more from the reversion point than the others. So how can we directly compare different pairs of different values? How about measuring the standard deviations of the pairs from the regression point and then comparing them? Perhaps with the "add" EA's the trigger to add trades could be once a pair has deviated noticeably compared to the other pairs?

I'm just spewing out ideas from inside my head, not saying any of it would actually work!

Also, I'm not exactly sure how the RVI calculates, maybe I am just going to end up basically recreating the RVI indicator with this?
  • #363
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:26pm Sep 15, 2010 8:26pm
skoda, all I know from reading your posts is that you are trying to see, quantify and take advantage of the same thing I am -- expansion and contraction of the two sides of the hedge.
Open to new approaches.
  • #364
  • Sep 15, 2010 9:45pm Sep 15, 2010 9:45pm
the add bot which was doing very well might be put to the test now, if indeed this will finally be a bit of a reversal from the boj intervention. all of the pairs such as gj and ej, which have been adding for awhile, will be in a bit of trouble. we'll see how it turns out
  • #365
  • Edited 1:53am Sep 16, 2010 12:28am | Edited 1:53am
Hi All,

Just sharing a modified W-RVIM indicator that I got from Looser's thread.

It allows you to choose between Group A or B each with the 7 unique pairs that MetaCoder has chosen.


Looks like Oneway EA is the way to go

What I mean is... well just have a look at how similar the two groups follow each other in this indicator.

Cheers,
the-game.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 68 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 W_RVIM.mq4   4 KB | 290 downloads
  • #366
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:07am Sep 16, 2010 7:07am
MC, have read your new entry logic coded into ver 3a I think.

Instead of comparing the 2 baskets of seven pairs against each other is it possible to compare all fourteen pairs against each other so that each basket of seven pairs at time of opening has pairs heading in the right direction ie buy and sell.
  • #367
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:15am Sep 16, 2010 7:15am
Thought I had maybe cursed this system when I decided to go live yesterday but have just had first equity pop.

Thanks MC et al
  • #368
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:30am Sep 16, 2010 8:30am
Here is an illustration of why I think we should include some kind of trim/reverse strategy to the add_01 EA. There are 2 $100+ losers and 5 of the 6 added trades are small losers. If those 2 big losers had been trimmed and reversed when they were -$45.30, Dollar Profit Target, the EA would have closed long ago.

I know that it will not always be this clear cut and the trim/reverse trades will sometimes not become winners, just as the added trades are not always winners. But it seems like we need something to counter what we are experiencing right now with this EA.

Here is another thought. Maybe we should just add a small trade in the opposite direction of any loser that exceeds minus the Dollar Profit Target, but I guess that gets us into a FIFO problem with US brokers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Frazer
  • #369
  • Edited 1:36pm Sep 16, 2010 8:48am | Edited 1:36pm
Since the RVI seems to be such an accurate indicator of direction changes, why not use it to determine when to close and reverse the losing trades? Anytime the RVI for a losing pair is above/below the 15% line and has a line xing in the opposite direction, close it and open a reverse trade.

Again, that may not always work, but it should be more accurate than what we are doing now with the 24 hr high/low.

EDIT: I don't know where my head is this morning. What I just described would be a time NOT to reverse but to close and open the new trade in the SAME direction. Now there's a new thought. So maybe you reverse only if the pair has reached a predetermined level and RVI has not crossed the 0 line. It is likely to continue in the same direction.
Frazer
  • #370
  • Edited 9:36am Sep 16, 2010 9:10am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting paulbt38
Thought I had maybe cursed this system when I decided to go live yesterday but have just had first equity pop.

Thanks MC et al
Hey Paul, you should not expect to take profit every day with these EAs. We aren't quite at that point yet, but we may get there with all the good ideas coming from this forum. The only problem is MC is just one person and he will have his hands full trying to code all those good ideas. We need more programmers working with him on this.

As I mentioned, I started live with Basket14 the end of last week. I did not get a pop until yesterday after 11 trims. I'm using ET 2. But then it trimmed 1 time and got another pop 8 hours later. Now It has trimmed 3 more times and I'm waiting for another $40 equity for a third pop.
Frazer
  • #371
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:30am Sep 16, 2010 9:30am
Frazer,

I agree with you on the ET 2.
So far the Basket 14_01 with ET 2 is doing so much better than the Basket 14_01 with ET 3.

ET 2 is in Equity profit $400
ET 3 is negative.
That is starting on Sunday with $5000 account, default inputs, only the ET is different.

I know, it may change.....
  • #372
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:49am Sep 16, 2010 9:49am
Quoting Pluto2
Frazer,

I agree with you on the ET 2.
So far the Basket 14_01 with ET 2 is doing so much better than the Basket 14_01 with ET 3.

ET 2 is in Equity profit $400
ET 3 is negative.
That is starting on Sunday with $5000 account, default inputs, only the ET is different.

I know, it may change.....
Yes, it is a matter of preference and risk tolerance. ET 2 will sometimes get you to the equity pop quicker, but you have to be prepared for more trim/reverses. Even with my confidence in the EA, I got a little antsy when,trading LIVE, I was looking at 9 or 10 trims and was still pretty far from a pop.

This weekend I will post my weekly results for 2 Basket14_01 demos, one at ET 2 and the other at ET 3. Those spreadsheets will illustrate very well the difference in number of trims and number of equity pops.
Frazer
  • #373
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:50am Sep 16, 2010 9:50am
Meta - Here is my update Confirm14_03 - Loaded on 9/7/10 50K account
Flat equity 55,413.00 - Equity Profit Target - 55,867.00 Max floating drawdown 10.58% - You guys can do the math.

I am still in dis-belief that an EA can perform like this.

Many many many thanks to everyone involved with this thread, I really think we have something here - Juiceman
  • #374
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:31am Sep 16, 2010 10:31am
So far with juiceman's results and some of my testing I have concluded that Confirm14_03 is the EA I would use on my live account soon. Though I am testing Basket14, OneWay14, and Add01 EAs but results of Confirm 14 so far are the best. not being a programmer, the best I can do for this forum is produce test results and share experiences.

Need a little help from Frazerd.

My live account is a Micro account of $2000. Leverage is 500:1.
Would the following settings make sense:

MaxMarginToUse = 0.2;
Maximum percent of margin to commit to trades.

Lots = 0.02;
ProfitPct = 1.0;

Thanks a lot guys.
  • #375
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:40am Sep 16, 2010 10:40am
Quoting frazerd
Hey Paul, you should not expect to take profit every day with these EAs. We aren't quite at that point yet, but we may get there with all the good ideas coming from this forum. The only problem is MC is just one person and he will have his hands full trying to code all those good ideas. We need more programmers working with him on this.

As I mentioned, I started live with Basket14 the end of last week. I did not get a pop until yesterday after 11 trims. I'm using ET 2. But then it trimmed 1 time and got another pop 8 hours later. Now It has trimmed...
No worries - I am not expecting a pop every day, far from it. I was simply saying that my usual luck with EA's means it performs great in a demo account and then when I move it on to my real account I usually discover a fatal flaw that hadn't shown up on demo.

Unfortunately I am not a programmer but will keep testing different versions and posting updates and any thoughts I might have. Loaded up the most recent add on version earlier today. Only added on two trades at the mo - both in dd. We will see how it performs overnight

Paul
  • #376
  • Sep 16, 2010 11:20am Sep 16, 2010 11:20am
just added it on a demo. Nothing happened. Is this normal or I need to do something?
  • #377
  • Sep 16, 2010 12:01pm Sep 16, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting forexripper
Need a little help from Frazerd.

My live account is a Micro account of $2000. Leverage is 500:1.
Would the following settings make sense:

MaxMarginToUse = 0.2;
Maximum percent of margin to commit to trades.

Lots = 0.02;
ProfitPct = 1.0;

Thanks a lot guys.
Those are all good except no need to change Lots - I don't believe that setting is used in these EAs. Be sure UseSmallestLot is false.
Frazer
  • #378
  • Sep 16, 2010 12:24pm Sep 16, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting forexripper
just added it on a demo. Nothing happened. Is this normal or I need to do something?
Yes, it will be normal for 02. I think MC added some entry criteria to the 02 version. See post 358, page 24.
Frazer
  • #379
  • Sep 16, 2010 12:58pm Sep 16, 2010 12:58pm
I purposely changed the lot size to 0.02 so I only risk little in live trades i.e. 1/5th of 0.1 size only (trades of $2000 each time). Is this ok?
  • #380
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:20pm Sep 16, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting forexripper
I purposely changed the lot size to 0.02 so I only risk little in live trades i.e. 1/5th of 0.1 size only (trades of $2000 each time). Is this ok?
It's OK, but I don't think it's going to do anything. I believe I saw a post by MC saying that input item was left over from some of his previous work and had no function in these EAs. I do most of my trading at 500:1 leverage and the 0.2 MaxMarginToUse will keep your lot size low, probably .02 with a $2000 starting balance. Then, of course, it will increase it as the balance grows.

I have one account at $3000 and it opens .03 lots and another at $4500 that is opening .04 lots. I do not play with the Lots setting at all. For 500:1 leverage the 0.2 MaxMargin setting is optimum. I have tried 0.15 and 0.25 and 0.3 and find that the lot sizing at 0.2 works best.

Again, you need to be sure you are not setting UseSmallestLot true. I think that will override the MaxMarginToUse and you will only open 0.01 lots. MC may have to correct me if I have that wrong.
Frazer
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