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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #141
  • Sep 15, 2010 2:17pm Sep 15, 2010 2:17pm
[quote=GJP;4023067]
Quoting DanUK
Very good idea MrCBee! I do have a couple of long term trades open - I'll start off with a couple of easy trades (as of this moment they are)...

USD/CHF (H4) +260 pips

USD/JPY (Daily) +820 pips

AUD/USD (Daily) +880 pips

Regards,

Dan



I also took the USD/CHF on the D1 based on a pinbar entry. At present I am using T/P (take profit targets) of minimum 2-1 of the distance between my entry and my S/L. I placed my S/L at break even after I had gained 200 pips. There has been some retracement today, but it is heading...
Hi GJP,

USD/CHF has hit the psychologically important 1.0000 level - it could prove to be a turning point in the trend so I will be watching carefully what unfolds over the next few days.

I think what you are saying is that you use a risk to reward ratio of 1:2 (your reward being double your risk) which is fair, but it does limit your winners. Personally I like to remain in a trade for as long as possible. This limits your risk and maximizes your profits!

Regards,

Dan
  • #142
  • Sep 15, 2010 2:34pm Sep 15, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting laranja
Hi Dan and other trend traders,

I'm a bit confused regarding Eur/USD direction...

If we pull up a let's say 200-300 candle weekly chart, we can see that we are in a downtrend and that the nearest resistances are around 1.30 and 1.33.
(Sorry I'm at work, I cannot access my platforms and don't have java in laptop, so cannot put upload charts...).

If we pull up a 200-300 candle daily chart we are also in a downtrend and around the 1.30 resistance line. However we have been in a correction since june.

The way I see (if reading charts correctly)...
Hi laranja,

My take on the Euro is pretty much the same as bboyomega83's answer.

Currently price is lingering just about the 1.3000 level - a daily close above this level would support the likelihood of higher prices ahead.

I closed out my long term shorts on the Euro when price crossed up through 1.2500 on the 1st July 2010 and my long term bias since then has been up. The same applies to Cable (although I believe that trend turned almost a month before the Euro).

Hope that is of some use!

Regards,

Dan
  • #143
  • Sep 15, 2010 2:35pm Sep 15, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting Ezzy
Great place to start! I'm cool wit h that.
Cool! Love your avatar by the way!!
  • #144
  • Sep 15, 2010 2:43pm Sep 15, 2010 2:43pm
Hi - here is my first attempt at taking major S/R from the weekly chart. I have to say I don't find this easy, so I wouldn't be be surprised if I have some of them 'wrong'!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2010-09-15 at 20.39.52.png Size: 33 KB
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #145
  • Sep 15, 2010 2:46pm Sep 15, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting lizpet
Hi Dan,
If we are after the multi month moves, then we probably need to draw our trendlines thro the major pivots.

The more bars that we have on our charts, the bigger the picture we see, and the more important pivots tend to "stand out" better - allowing us to draw our trendlines thro the "major" pivots, and hopefully these trendlines provide the longer term moves.

Why not get our trendlines from the timeframe above that which we intend trading from? (just thinking aloud)

When trading from the daily, how far back do you display on your...
Hi Peter,

I'm a little confused about what you mean with regards to drawing trendlines through "pivots" - could you explain that a little more please or perhaps a chart might make it clearer to me!

Now, I do tend to draw my horizontal support/resistance levels from the timeframe above (well in fact I only really use the weekly chart to draw the "key" s/r levels).

With regards to trendlines though - I tend to do my trend analysis on a daily chart; it just seems to suit me best for the way I trade. I use a simple method of higher highs and higher lows in an up trend and lower highs and lower lows in a down trend. I then use these highs (in a down trend) and lows (in an up trend) to draw my trendlines.

I don't tend to have a rule with regards to how far back I go but I will generally zoom out as far as I can (and indeed I do sometimes drop back to the weekly chart) in order to draw the outer trendline. Note also that there are times when more than one trendline should be drawn. Take for example this GBP/JPY chart... the purple trendline is the outer trendline but there is also a gold trendline that shows the inner trendline (that price been respecting more recently).

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #146
  • Sep 15, 2010 3:15pm Sep 15, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting gododdin
Hi - here is my first attempt at taking major S/R from the weekly chart. I have to say I don't find this easy, so I wouldn't be be surprised if I have some of them 'wrong'!
Hi gododdin,

This is a great chart. I like it a lot - you've highlighted the important areas without over cluttering the chart.

The next step is to widen these levels just a touch - think of them as zones more than to the pip lines. Think of them as being drawn with crayons rather than a fine tip pen!

Here is a chart highlighting what I mean...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #147
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:38pm Sep 15, 2010 4:38pm
[quote=DanUK;4024850]
Quoting GJP

Hi GJP,

USD/CHF has hit the psychologically important 1.0000 level - it could prove to be a turning point in the trend so I will be watching carefully what unfolds over the next few days.

I think what you are saying is that you use a risk to reward ratio of 1:2 (your reward being double your risk) which is fair, but it does limit your winners. Personally I like to remain in a trade for as long as possible. This limits your risk and maximizes your profits!

Regards,

Dan


Hi Dan,

Sorry I did mean 1:2 ratio. My stop at B/E has been hit on the USD/CHF The same also happened on another pair I was in. None of them reached their original stop level though. I agree with the 1,0000 level and there looks like there may be an opportunity to re-enter the trade around this level.

I would be interested to hear what your S/L procedure's are Dan.

Good trading.

gjp
  • #148
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:03pm Sep 15, 2010 5:03pm
[quote=GJP;4025039]
Quoting DanUK



Hi Dan,

Sorry I did mean 1:2 ratio. My stop at B/E has been hit on the USD/CHF The same also happened on another pair I was in. None of them reached their original stop level though. I agree with the 1,0000 level and there looks like there may be an opportunity to re-enter the trade around this level.

I would be interested to hear what your S/L procedure's are Dan.

Good trading.

gjp

Sorry Dan, ignore the bit above re-my USD/CHF it's early in the morning here lol. My USD/CHF is still alive. I got stopped out at B/E on my GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD (note to self, make sure your awake before switching PC on)
  • #149
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:39pm Sep 15, 2010 5:39pm
[quote=GJP;4025092]
Quoting GJP


Sorry Dan, ignore the bit above re-my USD/CHF it's early in the morning here lol. My USD/CHF is still alive. I got stopped out at B/E on my GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD (note to self, make sure your awake before switching PC on)

Hahaha. my usd/chf BE too.
  • #150
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:21pm Sep 15, 2010 8:21pm
Dan,
thank you for open this thread, I really appreciatte that.
This trade style is really the trade way, is not easear, is not simple (at the bigining at least) but is the real way to trade.
Always try to do this in this form...so, this is an other oportunity to learn from you.
Thank you again, good luck and best regards.
Pop
To make an omelet you have to break a few eggs so breathe and be happy
  • #151
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:37am Sep 16, 2010 1:37am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Peter,

I'm a little confused about what you mean with regards to drawing trendlines through "pivots" - ------.

Regards,

Dan
Hi Dan,
Its just our difference in terminology:

A pivot high consists of basically 3 bars -
The pivot high being a bar that is preceded with a bar that has a lower high, and is followed with a bar that also has a lower high

A pivot low is the opposite

Regards
peter
  • #152
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:16am Sep 16, 2010 2:16am
Quoting bboyomega83
HI Laranja,

My take on the EUR/USD is that we are at a critical point at which it decides whether it wants to resume the previous short uptrend or start another down trend.

This is the daily chart

1) the green line was the down trend we had the first half of this year. Around mid july it broke above the green line and retested and continued upwards. Note the retest didn't fully touch the green trendline before it continued upwards (just a point to show that trading requires flexibility and its an art more than a science)

2) Now the blue...
Morning bboyomega83,

Ok I see your point, thanks for clarifying.

Also to you Dan...
  • #153
  • Sep 16, 2010 3:16am Sep 16, 2010 3:16am
Hello Dan, Please, help me to understand your system with one pair example, but in todays real market situation. Your explanations are perfect, short and very clear. So, system is cristall clear,but when I try to find even one pair which to watch for entry signal according to your system I am confused and can not find clear no one. Please, if its possible, take just 1 pair on your radar list and show step by step your actions in the future. Thank you very much for all the help you give, for your great thread, Regards,
  • #154
  • Sep 16, 2010 3:24am Sep 16, 2010 3:24am
Hi DanUK

I hope you don't mind.
I am poor in English.
I can understand good in picture.
If you may, kindly post your trade with chats to ease understanding.
Thank you.

Cheers
  • #155
  • Sep 16, 2010 3:41am Sep 16, 2010 3:41am
Danuk

Nice thread. Reached the end so far, but still waiting for the most important aspect.... the trade management and risk management.

Regards
  • #156
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:04am Sep 16, 2010 4:04am
[quote=GJP;4025039]
Quoting DanUK



Hi Dan,

Sorry I did mean 1:2 ratio. My stop at B/E has been hit on the USD/CHF The same also happened on another pair I was in. None of them reached their original stop level though. I agree with the 1,0000 level and there looks like there may be an opportunity to re-enter the trade around this level.

I would be interested to hear what your S/L procedure's are Dan.

Good trading.

gjp
Hi GJP,

Initially I place my stop loss beyond the opposite end of my setup bar, so if I have a bearish engulfing candle that I want to short I will place my stop loss a little above the high of the candle.

The next thing I do is to look for a target - an area that could cause price to stop and reverse; once identified this is where I want to get my stop to breakeven.

The first thing I look for is a significant support/resistance level and when price gets there and it looks like it is stalling or forming an opposing signal - this would be a good sign to move stop to breakeven.

The second is if there is not a significant s/r level in the way I will move my stop to breakeven once price has reached the previous swing that occurred before the retracement - a chart would be best to explain this... the blue area indicates the danger zone!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 50 KB
  • #157
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:06am Sep 16, 2010 4:06am
Quoting Popeye
Dan,
thank you for open this thread, I really appreciatte that.
This trade style is really the trade way, is not easear, is not simple (at the bigining at least) but is the real way to trade.
Always try to do this in this form...so, this is an other oportunity to learn from you.
Thank you again, good luck and best regards.
Pop
Hi Popeye,

Thank you for you kind words! I hope I can share a little of what I have learned to help others replicate some of the same success.

Regards,

Dan
  • #158
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:16am Sep 16, 2010 4:16am
Quoting lizpet
Hi Dan,
Quoting lizpet
Its just our difference in terminology:

A pivot high consists of basically 3 bars -
The pivot high being a bar that is preceded with a bar that has a lower high, and is followed with a bar that also has a lower high

A pivot low is the opposite
...


Ah I see what you mean now... kind of like a "fractal" bar. I looked at using fractals to identify important highs and lows and this works quite well on the daily and weekly charts but remember that the market doesn't follow rules so strictly... sometimes you might have a bar with a lower high on one side and not the other but it is still of importance to the market!

As bboyomega83 said earlier it’s more of an art than a science!

Regards,

Dan
  • #159
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:22am Sep 16, 2010 4:22am
Quoting lite27
Hello Dan, Please, help me to understand your system with one pair example, but in todays real market situation. Your explanations are perfect, short and very clear. So, system is cristall clear,but when I try to find even one pair which to watch for entry signal according to your system I am confused and can not find clear no one. Please, if its possible, take just 1 pair on your radar list and show step by step your actions in the future. Thank you very much for all the help you give, for your great thread, Regards,
Hi lite27,

A live example would be helpful but I don't want to be seen to be providing signals so... what I thought would be better would be if you pull up a weekly chart and try to identify the key support and resistance levels (just as gododdin did with his usd/chf chart) and then post that here so I can take a quick look at it; don't worry if you don't identify the right levels - that is part of the learning curve and the purpose of this thread is to help people learn. We can then both look at this in real time and if we get a trade signal we can trade it live (well on demo really if you're learning - no "live" trading just yet!!).

Regards,

Dan
  • #160
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:24am Sep 16, 2010 4:24am
Quoting tradpat
Hi DanUK

I hope you don't mind.
I am poor in English.
I can understand good in picture.
If you may, kindly post your trade with chats to ease understanding.
Thank you.

Cheers
Hi tradpat,

I too prefer charts - pictures make things easier to explain and to understand! What charts would you like to see? Examples of past trades or do you want to look at a specific currency? Live trading charts will come at some point but I don't want to rush into it yet until I feel I've properly explained myself and people understand what I am trying to say!

Regards,

Dan
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