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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #253,221
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:32am Sep 15, 2010 4:32am
Quoting USD-Bear
I think its all relative and of course long term influence.
No QE means short term negative economic influence (what we see right now) but long term prosperity.
No matter what state world economy is in, I rather prefer a currency with less debts....

whats up bear
  • #253,222
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:39am Sep 15, 2010 4:39am
Quoting USD-Bear
You are right, but what does creating money from thin air do to inflation thats the main burden imo...
Not much so far, due to the huge overhang of debt that exists in the US, which is acting as a strong deflationary force, as indebted consumers and businesses strive to de-leverage.

Anyway, it's not just the quantity of currency that counts, but also the velocity of the money in supply. In theory, the Federal Reserve should be able to quickly drain the excess liquidity from the system, once the velocity picks up, thereby stamping out resulting inflationary pressures. Of course, whether they can manage this in reality remains to be seen.
  • #253,223
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:40am Sep 15, 2010 4:40am
Quoting dil
whats up bear
doing alright with my 3 (supposed) long term longs at 1.5430 but not yet feeling I'm out of danger zone, although confidence growths by the day
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #253,224
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:50am Sep 15, 2010 4:50am
Quoting gammase1
Not much so far, due to the huge overhang of debt that exists in the US, which is acting as a strong deflationary force, as indebted consumers and businesses strive to de-leverage.

Anyway, it's not just the quantity of currency that counts, but also the velocity of the money in supply. In theory, the Federal Reserve should be able to quickly drain the excess liquidity from the system, once the velocity picks up, thereby stamping out resulting inflationary pressures. Of course, whether they can manage this in reality remains to be seen.
It would be unique if they could, I can hardly find it in history and this one is very dangerous.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #253,225
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:53am Sep 15, 2010 4:53am
Quoting USD-Bear
It would be unique if they could, I can hardly find it in history and this one is very dangerous.....
Arguably, it would have been far more dangerous for the Federal Reserve not to have embarked on QE in the past couple of years. Never mind the risks of inflation, we'd likely now be talking about a lethal debt/deflation spiral for the economy, such as what was witnessed during the Great Depression.
  • #253,226
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:54am Sep 15, 2010 4:54am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks Gleneagles. I can see how that big bearish engulfing bar set the downward momentum off but I thought that momentum was waning as the bars got smaller and we ended on that pin bar just above support and the 38.2 fib. You had the confidence to short off the close of that bar without waiting to see if the pin/support held and that got me thinking.

You're obviously a very experienced trader and I was hoping to learn from this. Any tips on the timing of this entry would be much appreciated.

Cheers
Looking at a trading window from approximately 05h00-16h00 GMT , you would find that the market will ebb and flow due to normal trading activities and move in patterns...up and down..down and up.

These patterns are repetitive and predictable and can be traded successfully on smaller TF`s.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_02 Sep. 15 11.40.jpg Size: 82 KB
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #253,227
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:58am Sep 15, 2010 4:58am
Quoting gammase1
Arguably, it would have been far more dangerous for the Federal Reserve not to have embarked on QE in the past couple of years. Never mind the risks of inflation, we'd likely now be talking about a lethal debt/deflation spiral for the economy, such as what was witnessed during the Great Depression.
You're a wise man, lets see how GB comes out of all these uncertainties....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #253,228
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:03am Sep 15, 2010 5:03am
Quoting Gleneagles
Looking at a trading window from approximately 05h00-16h00 GMT , you would find that the market will ebb and flow due to normal trading activities and move in patterns...up and down..down and up.

These patterns are repetitive and predictable and can be traded successfully on smaller TF`s.
I guess you mean the third wave was complete and a deeper retrace was to be expected. Perhaps I should pay more attention to wave counting.

Cheers
  • #253,229
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:05am Sep 15, 2010 5:05am
Quoting USD-Bear
You're a wise man, lets see how GB comes out of all these uncertainties....
GB will be ok in the long run, Bear, as GB is still mainly owned by GB, unlike the US which is and has been for the past nearly 50 years or so mainly owned by other countries..... and of course it is getting worse as each of the bigger ones now want an even bigger slice of it as they come out of the 'dark ages'.....
  • #253,230
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:08am Sep 15, 2010 5:08am
Quoting AdrianHNV
GB will be ok in the long run, Bear, as GB is still mainly owned by GB, unlike the US which is and has been for the past nearly 50 years or so mainly owned by other countries..... and of course it is getting worse as each of the bigger ones now want an even bigger slice of it as they come out of the 'dark ages'.....
The UK is still a country running a large current account deficit - which is still in bad shape, despite the marked depreciation of sterling in the past couple of years - meaning it is still firmly reliant on foreign inflows to help plug this shortfall. Thank God for the impressive financial sector in the UK. Also, the level of overall debt in the UK is still far higher than the US.
  • #253,231
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:11am Sep 15, 2010 5:11am
Quoting gammase1
The UK is still a country running a large current account deficit - which is still in bad shape, despite the marked depreciation of sterling in the past couple of years - meaning it is still firmly reliant on foreign inflows to help plug this shortfall. Also, the level of overall debt in the UK is still higher than the US.
Yes I fully agree, but at least the UK is owned primarily by UK citizens unlike the USA.....
  • #253,232
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:15am Sep 15, 2010 5:15am
Quoting AdrianHNV
Yes I fully agree, but at least the UK is owned premaritally by UK citizens unlike the USA.....
Premaritally?

Just kidding, Adrian, I know that English obviously isn't your first language, as is the case for many posters on here. So your efforts to communicate on this forum are appreciated.
  • #253,233
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:19am Sep 15, 2010 5:19am
Quoting USD-Bear
You're a wise man, lets see how GB comes out of all these uncertainties....
HE IS!!..damn i just wish i could understand what he writes
I dont think there is any1 else in here who has the fundamental knowledge paul has..

interesting observation..we retrace 50% fib level from yesterday low - high..classic retracement value for cable..will she go higher..a bullish weekly close will put us on course for 1.6 test
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  • #253,234
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:21am Sep 15, 2010 5:21am
Quoting gammase1
Premaritally?

Just kidding, Adrian, I know that English obviously isn't your first language, as is the case for many posters on here. So your efforts to communicate on this forum are appreciated.
opps and thanks,,,,,,,thankfully my maths is better
  • #253,235
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:38am Sep 15, 2010 5:38am
Quoting Sutts
I guess you mean the third wave was complete and a deeper retrace was to be expected. Perhaps I should pay more attention to wave counting.

Cheers
+72

Will post an update and a chart at close of trading today. Trading is a bit flat today after the big moves we had yesterday.

Set up a 1m chart , it may be easier to follow the swings and get a feel for the patterns.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_03 Sep. 15 12.28.jpg Size: 87 KB
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #253,236
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:43am Sep 15, 2010 5:43am
BOE governor King speaking live ATM.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #253,237
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:49am Sep 15, 2010 5:49am
Quoting Gleneagles
+72

Will post an update and a chart at close of trading today. Trading is a bit flat today after the big moves we had yesterday.

Set up a 1m chart , it may be easier to follow the swings and get a feel for the patterns.
Thanks, good stuff.
  • #253,238
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:52am Sep 15, 2010 5:52am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks, good stuff.

Also, try zooming out on your chart, so you can't see the individual candles, it makes the patterns and obvious areas of S & R easier to see.
  • #253,239
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:54am Sep 15, 2010 5:54am
sell GBP target 50 pips 1.5426
  • #253,240
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:55am Sep 15, 2010 5:55am
Quoting Gleneagles
Looking at a trading window from approximately 05h00-16h00 GMT , you would find that the market will ebb and flow due to normal trading activities and move in patterns...up and down..down and up.

These patterns are repetitive and predictable and can be traded successfully on smaller TF`s.
Gonna try doing that now as I just got back and immediately noticed the wonderful range
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