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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #252,661
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:47am Sep 13, 2010 10:47am
Quoting cloggie
You are right. Think of it as money flows, with equities and oil up it means there is an appetite for risk, therefore money flows away from the dollar as safe haven into currencies and instruments that offer a return, no point holding cash, that does not pay the bills so the big funds dump the dollar for something that actually makes money. Especially the big funds in the US, when risk is on they en masse start buying equities, once risk is of, they go back into cash and wait for the next rally, keep in mind the big MF's and pension funds are long-only...

MF's and ETF's got around the long only rules by starting 130/30 funds, meaning 130% long and 30% short allocation, that way they were still 100% long...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/5724...-leap-for-etfs
  • #252,662
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:49am Sep 13, 2010 10:49am
Quoting Magix
Though not a lot of relative strength, I am going to hold one long here for the ride.

Stop loss 1.5395...from 1.5409 open. 1 lot closed for +15, can afford to take a chance here.

Got a lot of chart up and we are still bullish on the day imo...

A close below or rollover open below current support, I change and go back to the short rides.
I too am sitting on a long, but it is like pulling teeth!
  • #252,663
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:50am Sep 13, 2010 10:50am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks for the explanation Cloggie. I was expecting EU and GU to really go for it when I saw the oil and stocks break out like that. Any idea why things are so hesitant?

Is it generally a sound strategy to buy GU and EU (on dips say) when stocks and oil are on the up or is there a lot more to it than that? Sometimes I see stocks looking very healthy with no reaction at all from EU/GU and I've no idea why. Is it just one of those things that works enough to give you a small edge but nothing more - like everything in FX world I guess.

There are always exceptions to the rules, if it was only that easy. Apparantly there were lots of sellers (CB's) in fibre around 2820 that held the rally back a bit. You also need to keep in mind that the big boys try to protect there stops (2870 in fibre) and that slows/reverses a rally too, on days like this when risk is definitely on, you would probably be better to ignore the shorts and buy on dips. Go back over your history and compare es/oil to rallies in EU/GU and you see that the highest probability trade with the highest rewards are buying the dips.

Just keep a close eye on es/DOW to judge the continuance of each rally.
  • #252,664
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:50am Sep 13, 2010 10:50am
Quoting cloggie

For Cable, we need 5432 to give way and 5411 to hold for 5442 and 5472.

Check one.
  • #252,665
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:51am Sep 13, 2010 10:51am
Quoting Delite
I too am sitting on a long, but it is like pulling teeth!
Patience my friend, patience.

Be a different story if you were holding in a loss situation....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #252,666
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:54am Sep 13, 2010 10:54am
Quoting Magix
Patience my friend, patience.

Be a different story if you were holding in a loss situation....
Absolutely right! Thanks for the dose of perspective!
  • #252,667
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:54am Sep 13, 2010 10:54am
Quoting cloggie
There are always exceptions to the rules, if it was only that easy. Apparantly there were lots of sellers (CB's) in fibre around 2820 that held the rally back a bit. You also need to keep in mind that the big boys try to protect there stops (2870 in fibre) and that slows/reverses a rally too, on days like this when risk is definitely on, you would probably be better to ignore the shorts and buy on dips. Go back over your history and compare es/oil to rallies in EU/GU and you see that the highest probability trade with the highest rewards are buying...

Thanks Cloggie
  • #252,668
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:58am Sep 13, 2010 10:58am
Well, I was expecting a little more on the day, 2nd target zone hit, and I am taking profits here.

Good luck on the rest of the day guys.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #252,669
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:03am Sep 13, 2010 11:03am
waiting 4 closing price
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #252,670
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:24am Sep 13, 2010 11:24am
Heya, just got back...

See i didn't miss too much! Fibre short was triggered but seems she is adamant to go up, lost 20 pips thats what you get for anticipating without confirmation...

But hey, she might start pulling back soon, but will wait for confirmation.

Cable also starting to look weak now, maybe one more test of that up move? maybe not as she is really dropping now!

let's see...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #252,671
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:28am Sep 13, 2010 11:28am
im short on cable from 1.5460 based on the fact cable is in a descending channel on the hourly with target 1.54
  • #252,672
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:28am Sep 13, 2010 11:28am
Quoting pawpaw1000
Heya, just got back...

See i didn't miss too much! Fibre short was triggered but seems she is adament to go up, lost 20 pips thats what you get for anticipating without confirmation...

But hey, she might start pulling back soon, but will wait for confirmation.

Cable also starting to look weak now, maybe one more test of that up move? maybe not as she is really dropping now!

let's see...
For a little risk, and because I rode most of the longs on EU, I did take a cheeky short at the 100% mark here...got in at 83/85 1 each.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #252,673
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:30am Sep 13, 2010 11:30am
Quoting pawpaw1000
Heya FourXtrader...

Yeah, have seen it time and time again... Must say though that I do have a different view on things when it comes to the questions of life.

For me, I'm here to try and help people, or I hope I am blessed enough to be able to do it.

I don't want to blow my horn or something but just the facts:

http://www.globalissues.org/article/...acts-and-stats

When i read that I really can't understand how we in the western world can continue the way we do without even blinking a eye! How can you justify staying...
Very similar feelings especially the bit about eating in 5-star Hotels - happened to me a long time back - come out of a Grand Restaurant with full stomach having eaten in Silver Plates and there stands a dirty-looking woman one child in arms, other two with outstretched hands - my dream shattered, destabilized - I didn't even hand out anything to them - just walked past quickly - wanted to get over it but it got internalized.

I will just say, "let's keep together" - something would happen.
  • #252,674
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:32am Sep 13, 2010 11:32am
Quoting Magix
For a little risk, and because I rode most of the longs on EU, I did take a cheeky short at the 100% mark here...got in at 83/85 1 each.
aah, you bugger! I'm hoping she's gonna have another push up as the 25 ema is holding her for now. I'm going to try get in 5455 - 5460 if she gives me a chance but she looks angry!
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #252,675
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:33am Sep 13, 2010 11:33am
Quoting Magix
For a little risk, and because I rode most of the longs on EU, I did take a cheeky short at the 100% mark here...got in at 83/85 1 each.
Nice looking clutter-free chart! Just wish I could read it better (writing too small). What is that graduated blue shading?
  • #252,676
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:34am Sep 13, 2010 11:34am
Quoting vilas
Very similar feelings especially the bit about eating in 5-star Hotels - happened to me a long time back - come out of a Grand Restaurant with full stomach having eaten in Silver Plates and there stands a dirty-looking woman one child in arms, other two with outstretched hands - my dream shattered, destabilized - I didn't even hand out anything to them - just walked past quickly - wanted to get over it but it got internalized.

I will just say, "let's keep together" - something would happen.


how about we try and change all that. The world is gonna have alot more poor people really soon and those of us who can, should do all they can to help
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #252,677
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:39am Sep 13, 2010 11:39am
Up and down like a toilet seat today , at least the swings were big enough to collect.

+82
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #252,678
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:41am Sep 13, 2010 11:41am
is that not the whole point of being successful@forex, not only can you fufill your own dreams but help fufill dreams of others, personally i think charity is useless and the money doesnt go anywhere at all, it gets lost in admin and quick-fix solutions. A friend told me they used to sponsor local kids in a village in the third world who then became doctors and returned to provide healthcare in their area...
  • #252,679
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:49am Sep 13, 2010 11:49am
Quoting bimmerbob
Nice looking clutter-free chart! Just wish I could read it better (writing too small). What is that graduated blue shading?
Marking the EU chart,

Looking at the chart, finding support at open price and taking triggers with double hulls...

1. First buy area, marked 25%
2. - 5. indicate the rest of the targeted areas.

Buy zones marked as we are in the long chart, 100% daily range and took reversal here.

When we go into a sell cycle, the graduated shading is red...same targeted areas based on daily average movements.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu41.jpg Size: 146 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #252,680
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:53am Sep 13, 2010 11:53am
Quoting Magix
When we go into a sell cycle, the graduated shading is red...same targeted areas based on daily average movements.
View of a short chart. GJ.

Double hulls x, short triggers in the sell zones.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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