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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #252,201
  • Sep 10, 2010 5:39am Sep 10, 2010 5:39am
Quoting cloggie
2-0 for the home team.
Quick question if I may Cloggie......

Does the behaviour of UJ tell us anything useful these days? I guess it used to be a good gauge of the Yen carry trade - borrowing yen at low rates then selling yen to buy dollars to invest in higher yielding risky things?

I notice it has been moving opposite to uCAD a lot. Is that just due to speculation regarding BoJ intervention?

Thanks
  • #252,202
  • Sep 10, 2010 5:46am Sep 10, 2010 5:46am
Quoting nAVIN2007
but still ..seem a good analysis..good at finding trendlines
the SHI trendlines are based on a similar formulation to Andrew's pitchfork, zigzag as well. This stuff is old as salt...

omg... I'm laughing too hard to trade.

better focus on my charts
  • #252,203
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:03am Sep 10, 2010 6:03am
Quoting nAVIN2007
boi was he busted quick! ..he certainly is no jacko
I always felt Scipi and Oxford had ulterior motives and pleased that they were finally shown up but I found Java's input interesting and will miss his views if he decides to up sticks or is moved to the commercial section...I certainly never got the impression he was on this forum angling to get clients.

Anyhoo, back to the action...ascending triangle / wedge on the m15?
  • #252,204
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:04am Sep 10, 2010 6:04am
well,

-oil nearing 76
-stocks up
-no bottom in uCAD
-1.5457 cleared
-USDX trending down again

may this be enough to clear 1.5475?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #252,205
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:04am Sep 10, 2010 6:04am
Trade illustrated yesterday closed for a loss but still nicely up on week. On 4hr PA at the moment just looks like chop so no trades today.
  • #252,206
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:04am Sep 10, 2010 6:04am
Quoting Magic Hat

Anyhoo, back to the action...ascending triangle / wedge on the m15?

Yup and a first proper test of 5457
  • #252,207
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:05am Sep 10, 2010 6:05am
Quoting javajames
NO it comes from a proprietary indy, I designed myself and sorry .....I won't share cause it's part of the package for my paying students.....

But you could build one similar based on Zigzag, which I use in mine with some other data.....
Looks like 3 level semaphore to me? A nice indicator but not needed at all - if you can't see if price has stopped making new highs/lows then you need your eyes testing.

Edit, now I read more of the thread I see semafor posted
  • #252,208
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:13am Sep 10, 2010 6:13am
Quoting cloggie
Yup and a first proper test of 5457
Seems like a lot of Orders sitting around yesterday's high...is there the appetite to send this up to 5500 today?

Quick question as well if I may...inflation in the UK seems to be drifting down. Does this mean that we will start to see further weakness in GBP?
  • #252,209
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:19am Sep 10, 2010 6:19am
Quoting Magic Hat
I always felt Scipi and Oxford had ulterior motives and pleased that they were finally shown up but I found Java's input interesting and will miss his views if he decides to up sticks or is moved to the commercial section...I certainly never got the impression he was on this forum angling to get clients.

?
Seconded. I actually find Java's posts useful to confirm my thinking, stayed in many a position because he has posted in a timely manner in support of a position I am holding.

As far as sales people are concerned I don't know why they bother. Simple question, if your indy/system/method whatever is so good then why bother about my contribution. There is far more to be made on the market if your indy is that good.
This space intentionally left blank.
  • #252,210
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:20am Sep 10, 2010 6:20am
Quoting cloggie
I expect a "normal" cable day to have a break on the open for about 80-120 pips, consolidate and then give us the second move.
Cloggie,

Do you have percentage figure on the second move being in the same direction as the break?
  • #252,211
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:23am Sep 10, 2010 6:23am
Quoting PipGrabber
Cloggie,

Do you have percentage figure on the second move being in the same direction as the break?

I purely trade the second move on tech and fundies, not statistics. I just play my range I posted a few hours ago. Statistically the second move does not really gain momentum though untill Chicago and NY are open.

That said, barring any news or rally in equities, she generally heads back to the open price.

I know it sounds ambiguous but I don't want you to trade on statistics alone.

Talking about statistics, September is generally a bull month.
  • #252,212
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:31am Sep 10, 2010 6:31am
  •  zigizum
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Not in a hurry too blow my account | 52 Posts
Quoting cloggie
It is absolutely irrelevant, if he was any good he would trade for a living and would not need to come in here grooming a few noobs for a few quid. No succesful trader in the world is going to start a mentoring business for a few hundred quid. The whole point of becoming a trader is that you can be your own boss, set your own hours and be as succesful as you want to be, why would anyone commit to spending time with a few guys you find on the web for a few hundred quid? May as well become a bartender at some beachbar in Thailand, at least you can...

Yes, agreed...like I said before...Also I agree with you now.
Still, let us not forget, that we are here to make our own opinion and analysis and that those action of javajames will not be tolerated in the future. I believe that traders wont post those kind of statements anymore...we must go from here on..

Voice of reasoning...

GU third hour in 20 pips corridor...
  • #252,213
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:31am Sep 10, 2010 6:31am
Quoting cloggie
I purely trade the second move on tech and fundies, not statistics. I just play my range I posted a few hours ago. Statistically the second move does not really gain momentum though untill Chicago and NY are open.

That said, barring any news or rally in equities, she generally heads back to the open price.

I know it sounds ambiguous but I don't want you to trade on statistics alone.

Talking about statistics, September is generally a bull month.
Gotcha. Thanks. Wasn't planning on using statistics to trade, just wondering about the probability.
  • #252,214
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:34am Sep 10, 2010 6:34am
Quoting PipGrabber
Gotcha. Thanks. Wasn't planning on using statistics to trade, just wondering about the probability.

Statistically a "normal" cable day has a Franky Fake (20-40 pips) a London Break (80-120 pips) an area of consolidation then barring any news or equity sell of a reversal close to the open, then NY wants to set either the hi/lo and fill the range and TY gives us the retrace with a SY fake beforehand.

Now that is a very general view, but it should break down your day into distinct sections that you can identify and trade accordingly.

There are very distinct times during the day that you don't enter intra day trades, just scalps. They are the Franky open, the London Open, the NY open, the London close and the NY close. You can spot them very distinctly in the price and they generally are areas of consolidation until the change in volume is absorbed and a further direction comes out as result.
  • #252,215
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:35am Sep 10, 2010 6:35am
Quoting Sutts
Quick question if I may Cloggie......

Does the behaviour of UJ tell us anything useful these days? I guess it used to be a good gauge of the Yen carry trade - borrowing yen at low rates then selling yen to buy dollars to invest in higher yielding risky things?

I notice it has been moving opposite to uCAD a lot. Is that just due to speculation regarding BoJ intervention?

Thanks
Would appreciate your opinions on UJ cloggie. Just trying to learn. Apologise if my questions seem stupid.
  • #252,216
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:41am Sep 10, 2010 6:41am
Quoting Sutts
Would appreciate your opinions on UJ cloggie. Just trying to learn. Apologise if my questions seem stupid.

UJ is purely yield driven as a carry trade, 2.75 has been an area I have posted for a few weeks now, BOJ cannot unilaterally do anything about the rising Yen and they have admitted as much, you need to keep an eye on the yield curve and until the TL breaks just keep selling the rallies, that's where the big boys money is going.

UJ is probably the easiest and clearest correlated trade of the majors.

Also keep an eye on EJ as a break of UJ TL will see serious money flowing into EJ as the carry trade.

Yahoo is a good source of yield, put in ^TNX and it will give you the 10yr, that is the benchmark.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #252,217
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:41am Sep 10, 2010 6:41am
Quoting cloggie
Statistically a "normal" cable day has a Franky Fake (20-40 pips) a London Break (80-120 pips) an area of consolidation then barring any news or equity sell of a reversal close to the open, then NY wants to set either the hi/lo and fill the range and TY gives us the retrace with a SY fake beforehand.

Now that is a very general view, but it should break down your day into distinct sections that you can identify and trade accordingly.

There are very distinct times during the day that you don't enter intra day trades, just scalps. They are the...
I have learnt so much from you in the past three months. Thanks.
  • #252,218
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:44am Sep 10, 2010 6:44am
she ain't gonna move or what?...kinda constipated again...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #252,219
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:46am Sep 10, 2010 6:46am
Quoting cloggie
UJ is purely yield driven as a carry trade, 2.75 has been an area I have posted for a few weeks now, BOJ cannot unilaterally do anything about the rising Yen and they have admitted as much, you need to keep an eye on the yield curve and until the TL breaks just keep selling the rallies, that's where the big boys money is going.

UJ is probably the easiest and clearest correlated trade of the majors.

Also keep an eye on EJ as a break of UJ TL will see serious money flowing into EJ as the carry trade.

Yahoo is a good source of yield, put in ^TNX...
Thank you. I've learnt so much from reading your posts too...they're pure gold.
  • #252,220
  • Sep 10, 2010 6:47am Sep 10, 2010 6:47am
Until she does....I'm shorting ftse @ 5492...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
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