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Building an equity millipede

  • #2,201
  • Sep 9, 2010 8:03pm Sep 9, 2010 8:03pm
Quoting johnsund
Here is something that may help with the trading approach being discussed here. It shows multiple pairs and multiple timeframes when a flying buddah has formed. You can add and delete timeframes and add and delete which pairs to observe.

ooh i love it! can you share the indicator?
  • #2,202
  • Sep 9, 2010 8:18pm Sep 9, 2010 8:18pm
Just a follow up on my last post. This is a weekly EURUSD chart. In between the orange lines is the range the pair has been in for about 5 weeks. You can clearly see the weekly FB that form just before the initial move down into the range. Price is creeping closer and closer to the bottom of the range and if it breaks we should get at least one more leg down. Again, keeping in mind this is a weekly chart so it may not happen in the next day or two but you never know. Just a heads up to watch this area of support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd daily fb 10.09.10.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,203
  • Sep 9, 2010 8:20pm Sep 9, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting VEEFX
- I reviewed my trade log since 1/2009 couple of days back and noticed my longs are way less profitable than my shorts. It blew my mind. Hence I focussed on Marion's strategy yesterday.
I think that the sell strategy is absolutely brilliant. A market can crash without notice at any time. Anyone around during the 08 crash all they saw were red lines going down their screens and not stopping. All my computers jammed up and all stops cease to exist. I think it was like a minimum of 5 minutes for one trade to close - which by then was far from my stops. People today talk about using "emergency stops" - they are worthless pretty much during a crash. If you seek only sell positions, you wouldn't have to worry ever about a market crashing UP (unless maybe you are trading swiss lol).
  • #2,204
  • Sep 9, 2010 8:25pm Sep 9, 2010 8:25pm
and btw, another cause for Joe's/Marion's sell strategy - is that people are talking about the "Hindenburg Omen" alerts are going off again. This is a signal that would have warned about the 08 crash and all the other prior crashes. Supposedly we are due for another crash soon according to this "Omen".
  • #2,205
  • Sep 9, 2010 8:34pm Sep 9, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting VEEFX
I think he meant value of USD to drop by 50%. Thanks to Uncle Ben, it could happen
they are saying to save all your silver coins now , the coins are about to drop in value again. I hear laws were passed to make them out of even more junkier metal than before. People are buying common silver coins on ebay like crazy. $4.00 face value in quarters and dimes going for $300 last night! and they are only like 1980 coins!
  • #2,206
  • Sep 9, 2010 8:54pm Sep 9, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting kcravey
I think that the sell strategy is absolutely brilliant....
How do you figure that? Forex crashes are not like stock crashes. Some pairs spike up and some spike down.
  • #2,207
  • Sep 9, 2010 9:00pm Sep 9, 2010 9:00pm
kcravey and fxtrader2k7 - The indicators are not mine to post. Sorry.
  • #2,208
  • Sep 9, 2010 9:24pm Sep 9, 2010 9:24pm
Quoting pip_daddy
How do you figure that? Forex crashes are not like stock crashes. Some pairs spike up and some spike down.
IMO, the forex crashes harder/faster than the stock market does. If you flip through the charts and look at 08 you'll see which ones crash down and which ones crash up. The only one I've noticed ever crashing UP is the swiss. I only trade the pound - so to me a crash is DOWN. Spiking up is ok - but a constant never ending down fall for days/weeks/months can be disasterous if you are in a long position - even with stops. I can see Joes'/Marion's brilliance in the theory behind sell only for forex. (unless you are trading swiss...). But to each their own....
  • #2,209
  • Sep 9, 2010 9:33pm Sep 9, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting johnsund
kcravey and fxtrader2k7 - The indicators are not mine to post. Sorry.

aww so you're just teasing us then with this indicator that totally goes with this thread, even naming it "Flying Buddha"....
  • #2,210
  • Sep 9, 2010 9:55pm Sep 9, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting kcravey
aww so you're just teasing us then with this indicator that totally goes with this thread, even naming it "Flying Buddha"....
I looked for "Flying Buddha" and found it. Thanks johnsund.

The D1 and W1 flying buddha are supporting my 106 long entry.

http://i52.tinypic.com/339leev.jpg
  • #2,211
  • Sep 9, 2010 9:56pm Sep 9, 2010 9:56pm
Doing the hindsight exercise has been frustrating and I'd just like to share what has been hurting me. My hindsight has been good but I've lost pips overall. It isn't a matter of me overtrading but instead a matter of getting shaken out on the probes. I'm frustrated because I can see the result of when I get the hindsight right and I can only imagine how much potentially worse it could be if I had the hindsight wrong.

In the past I have been a scalper and I must confess that scalping is 1000 times easier. You just don't get the same emotional self-contempt and disgust with your efforts. I'm not saying that because I am no longer pursuing the core principles in this thread - it is only a personal reflection on the differences between the two methods. However, I am yet to have a positive experience in the last month using these principles, and that probably accentuates my frustrations.

With kind regards,
MK
  • #2,212
  • Sep 9, 2010 10:33pm Sep 9, 2010 10:33pm
For those of you struggling with entries I've attached a chart to show how I do most of my entries.

Here is tonite's GBP/USD 5 min chart using the Flying Buddha indicator posted earlier in this thread. I added a 13 Simple Moving Average and a slower 100 simple moving average just to show the direction of the trend (down).

For entries, I wait until the candle has closed through both the moving averages in the direction of the trend. I enter once it has closed below the MA's. The last entry shows a buy signal which is countertrend but might be good for a couple of pips if you are an aggressive trader- and, who knows - might be the start of a new uptrend. (I wouldn't take it though.... )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: flying buddha entries.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #2,213
  • Sep 9, 2010 10:36pm Sep 9, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting kcravey
I think that the sell strategy is absolutely brilliant....
Couldn't agree more.... SL order is just another market order in the opposite direction and is dependent on the next 'available' tick on bid or offer. This happened to me this past weekend when I had two E/J soldiers in 50+ pips at BE. Weekend gapped and my SL was triggered at Sunday's open price whatever that might be. This can also happen during news time etc. so all open orders at BE doesn't mean you are 100% protected in the world of FX trading. There are very few brokers that offer guaranteed SL protection for an additional cost. We HAVE to factor this aspect of risk when trading on highly leveraged trading instruments. You could easily get a margin call by spread widening or slippage if you have 15-20 2 lot positions at BE with weak money management (over-exposure!)... just my 2 cents.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,214
  • Sep 9, 2010 10:45pm Sep 9, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting MidKnight
Doing the hindsight exercise has been frustrating and I'd just like to share what has been hurting me. My hindsight has been good but I've lost pips overall. It isn't a matter of me overtrading but instead a matter of getting shaken out on the probes. I'm frustrated because I can see the result of when I get the hindsight right and I can only imagine how much potentially worse it could be if I had the hindsight wrong.

In the past I have been a scalper and I must confess that scalping is 1000 times easier. You just don't get the same emotional...
A month is not a very long time for a system like this. As Graeme said, one of the challenges is going weeks and weeks of constantly getting stopped out and watching your capital trickle away with nothing to show for it. I haven't had much luck lately but I know that if I keep participating the market will eventually reward me. If you look at the pairs on daily/weekly, a lot of sideways motion and several are at historic lows/highs. So I don't think it has been an ideal situation the past month. August is also known for being lower volume and less predicable.

So although it sounds like you feel more comfortable scalping, I wouldn't write off this system after only trying it during August.
  • #2,215
  • Sep 9, 2010 10:51pm Sep 9, 2010 10:51pm
Quoting VEEFX
Couldn't agree more.......
If you have a bunch of positions stacked really close I could see it happening but if you space them out like you should be I don't see any problems with slippage and weekend gaps. They could just as easily go in your favor too so if you have a bunch of legs in both directions it's gonna even out that way. And in the overall scheme a sudden move 50 or 100 pips against any one position or group of positions should not be a problem when you may have 10 or 20 legs with thousands of pips profit.
  • #2,216
  • Edited Sep 10, 2010 12:22am Sep 9, 2010 11:18pm | Edited Sep 10, 2010 12:22am
Quoting kcravey
aww so you're just teasing us then with this indicator that totally goes with this thread, even naming it "Flying Buddha"....

EDIT: Took advice and removed the link and contents of this post. Just google "Flying Buddha indicator"
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,217
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:51pm Sep 9, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting pip_daddy
A month is not a very long time for a system like this....
I agree. This system needs a lot of practice and rewards will be far greater than the initial pain/drawdown. I bet everyone of us will become more confidant and successful once we have one leg of 1000 pips that survived for atleast a month.

To help get over this emotional hurdle, this is what my attitude will be when I go live ... write myself a check of $1000 on top of your funding capital to buy an army of 400 soldiers. Each soldier will be worth $0.25/pip and start with 10 pip SL per entry on super low spread pair. If you don't become successful after loosing 400 soldiers in this battle, then you should prepare yourself to sign a peace treaty:-

I think it is alright to 'Expect' a drawdown of 50-60% before a successful long term position is formed. IMHO, this is prime time to try this type of strategy as most pairs have had a long running downward trend and if you get ahead upwards, it will indeed become a golden goose opportunity for years to come. It's no surprise Graeme anticipated we all would (and continue to) struggle being profitable. Hence, this flow of thread was to do 20/20 exercise and the weekly assignments etc. This was his 'hindsight' before starting this thread !

I think we HAVE to take mini profits out of the shorter legs to keep the account balance from shrinking during the initial months. These past exercises alone would have given me close to 25% realized profit had I closed out my open positions @ +50 pips that retraced from a 200+ pip profit down to 50+ pip profit. think about it... this realized profit could be used for next 10 FBs. Don't let these micro-level (M5) entries obstruct your thinking of keeping the macro picture of infinite yield.
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,218
  • Edited 12:25am Sep 10, 2010 12:01am | Edited 12:25am
Hey Vee,
be very very careful about brining that name back up in this thread, i would hate to see those who hold the power here get all upset with it and bin this great thread.

cheers
Geoff
  • #2,219
  • Sep 10, 2010 12:07am Sep 10, 2010 12:07am
Quoting VEEFX
Well.. atleast John gave you the reason why. In my PM he asked me to google it. So it did and found out that TRO has developed it and this thread has already become known to other forums.

Before we get more posts on this, here's the link if you got $50 to spare.

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=45465

p.s. There are gazilaon coders here at FF who would do it for free!
There was no payment required to download those indicators. What are you talking about?
  • #2,220
  • Sep 10, 2010 12:08am Sep 10, 2010 12:08am
Quoting MidKnight
Doing the hindsight exercise has been frustrating and I'd just like to share what has been hurting me. My hindsight has been good but I've lost pips overall. It isn't a matter of me overtrading but instead a matter of getting shaken out on the probes. I'm frustrated because I can see the result of when I get the hindsight right and I can only imagine how much potentially worse it could be if I had the hindsight wrong.

In the past I have been a scalper and I must confess that scalping is 1000 times easier. You just don't get the same emotional...
What made you consider another system or method?
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