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Attachments: Basket 14 EA System
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Basket 14 EA System

  • #161
  • Sep 9, 2010 12:11pm Sep 9, 2010 12:11pm
Thoughts?
Well, if it's losing money, it's doing it a heck of a lot slower than I usually do.
Emotions?
It's on an emotion-free demo account. Complete detachment. Complete bliss. Complete boredom. Zero stress. Trading as it should be.
  • #162
  • Sep 9, 2010 1:37pm Sep 9, 2010 1:37pm
I was wondering if anyone has tried it live as these days due to volatile mkt conditions cut n reverse could actually shrink the small accounts like mine ($2000) to a point where no further trades could be taken by the EA. I don't want my account to get wiped out.
  • #163
  • Sep 9, 2010 1:43pm Sep 9, 2010 1:43pm
Well you could always crank down the max margin setting to a more comfortable level (unless you're scraping the minimum lot size at that point).
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #164
  • Sep 9, 2010 1:50pm Sep 9, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting sanyhuis
I don't have any problems with it. You told us yesterday this could happen and here it is. Frazer has said it will always end up in profit. I believe him. I think sometimes that if it lasts too long the rollover will be great. But how often does that happen? It still goes til it hits the profit target.....I sleep at night. I don't have massive drawdowns, just small to medium ones, and I'm happy! I thank you guys so very much.
5 gold stars!!!
Here is a spreadsheet for an older version of this EA that will do 2 things for you. First you can see where it has, several times, come back into profit after numerous trimming trades. Secondly it will give you some idea of how this EA has evolved. This one was named after me - I think MetaCoder was just trying to humor me.

It is exactly the same EA as Basket14_01 except that It trimmed every trade that went above/below it's 24 hr high or low. It did not have the ExceedenceTrigger, which has been incorporated into the Basket14 EAs with the goal of reducing the number of trims required to get the basket into profit. I started this EA at the same time I started Basket14_2010_01 (Basket14_01) which I posted last week. They both picked up a little over 10% profit from 25 Jul - 3 Sep, but Basket14_01 did it with a lot fewer trims/long draw downs.

I still have the frazerd version running (can't abandon my namesake) and it is in another long trimming period with 14 trims carried over from last week and 9 more this week for a total of 23 and it is still a long way from the Profit Target and will probably not close this week. But I'm confident that it will close eventually with another 1% profit above the last close-all. I will keep you posted.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls frazerd14_nl_03_500-1_0.2MMTU.xls   92 KB | 571 downloads
Frazer
  • #165
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:29pm Sep 9, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting forexripper
I was wondering if anyone has tried it live as these days due to volatile mkt conditions cut n reverse could actually shrink the small accounts like mine ($2000) to a point where no further trades could be taken by the EA. I don't want my account to get wiped out.
That is not likely to happen if you have your MaxMarginToUse set properly. What setting you should use is dependent on the leverage of your account. MetaCoder has addressed that issue for smaller leveraged accounts, which is the way he intends to trade. I trade at 500:1 leverage and I use 0.2 for my setting and that works well for me. If the EA works as intended, even though you may experience a large number of trims which reduce your balance, enough of those (not all) when reopened in the opposite direction will become winners and that keeps the equity high enough to keep the account safe. Here is my statement for that account I just talked about that has 23 trims right now. I've highlighted the 23 trims, the -1275 closed trades, the 600(+) PL plus the equity and free margin. The account is still quite safe in spite of the losses.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Frazerd14_nl_03.xls   37 KB | 310 downloads
Frazer
  • #166
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:38pm Sep 9, 2010 2:38pm
That's a lot of trims Frazer! Do you have ExceedenceTrigger at 2?
Open to new approaches.
  • #167
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:43pm Sep 9, 2010 2:43pm
Is this your live account statement?
  • #168
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:49pm Sep 9, 2010 2:49pm
Meta: I notice you keep adding scripts/codes for the Basket trading. So my question is and maybe it is dumb but which is better, basket or confirm or are they both the same with different parameters - Thanks Juiceman
  • #169
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:59pm Sep 9, 2010 2:59pm
When I'm in a heavy development phase, I am always trying new things.

The "confirm" line of EAs is too specific in its confirmation criteria, I don't like it.

With the Basket14 series, I'm looking at different ways to improve entries so we come into profit sooner with greater frequency. I still haven't fully cracked the mysteries of the ebb and flow of how the two sides of the mathematically pure synthetic hedge move toward and away from each other (the question is not whether they do -- they most certainly do), and whether we can get a handle on it via composite RVIs or some other indicator.

I would love to find a way of identifying the outer limits of movement of the two sides of the hedge (version 05 is a stab, not quite in the dark, but not as precise as I'd like). I think I should try to enlist some indicator developers, some of whom appear to frequent this forum.

Anyway...

Version 04 looks like it may never take trades, making it very safe.

Version 05 SHOULD take trades and I'll be curious about the results.
Open to new approaches.
  • #170
  • Sep 9, 2010 3:04pm Sep 9, 2010 3:04pm
Meta: Thanks for the reply I understand now where you are heading with this. Juiceman
  • #171
  • Sep 9, 2010 3:07pm Sep 9, 2010 3:07pm
Meta: So far Confirm_14 is doing exactly what it is supposed to do and I am satisfied with my results 2% in two days is good enough for me - Thanks Juiceman
  • #172
  • Sep 9, 2010 3:24pm Sep 9, 2010 3:24pm
What if we use this basket 14 EA as an indicator on demo account and take trades opened by this EA after cut n reverse on our live account.

Does this make sense
  • #173
  • Sep 9, 2010 3:44pm Sep 9, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting forexripper
What if we use this basket 14 EA as an indicator on demo account and take trades opened by this EA after cut n reverse on our live account.

Does this make sense
We partially explored such a concept using "phantom trades". This eliminates the need for a separate demo account. We can take snapshots of exchange rates at a given time, pretend we have opened trades even though we did not, then track how our phantom trades would be doing, then open real trades (or not) based on what we see.

Your thinking is along a good line in my opinion, but I have limited time and energy to explore it with more EAs.
Open to new approaches.
  • #174
  • Sep 9, 2010 4:18pm Sep 9, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting MetaCoder
That's a lot of trims Frazer! Do you have ExceedenceTrigger at 2?
This is Frazerd14, before we had any ExceedenceTrigger.
Frazer
  • #175
  • Sep 9, 2010 4:20pm Sep 9, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting frazerd
This is Frazerd14, before we had any ExceedenceTrigger.
Oh right, sorry, you even said so!
Open to new approaches.
  • #176
  • Sep 9, 2010 5:00pm Sep 9, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting forexripper
Is this your live account statement?
No, I just started trading live with Basket14_01 yesterday. It's the first time I've traded live in over 2 years. I have worked with MC and waited until I thought we had a really good EA. I think this is it and it will get even better as MC continues to tweak it and try new things.

BTW MC, I am using ExceedenceTrigger(ET) 2 on one of my demos and also on the live account. It trims a little faster than ET 3, yet still seems to limit the number of trims quite well. Since 22 Aug, when I started the one with ET 2, the demo that's running with ET 2 has closed 9 times with 6 being the most trims between close-all. During that same 3 weeks ET 3 has closed only 7 times while the most trims between closes-alls was 3. So it's a toss up. You get more close-alls quicker with ET 2, but the trade off is the possibility of twice as many trims, but still much improved over no ET.
Frazer
  • #177
  • Sep 9, 2010 5:09pm Sep 9, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting MetaCoder
All right, so now I'm sure a few of you are looking at balance and equity drawdowns and wondering if the EA will get you to a fresh equity pop at some point in the future.

Thoughts? Emotions?
MetaCoder,

Your EA is working perfectly now after you provided assistance with it yesterday.

Basket 14-03 has been running for about 24 hours now on my live mini account.

A couple of observations for you:

The starting balance was $1503. Lowest balance has been $1646. A drawdown of about 2.5% However, you have a reference on the EA that refers to "Max Floating Drawdown". That currently shows a value of 1.77% I realize this is because the cut and reverse closed trades that have taken place are no longer considered to be part of the "floating" drawdown. I feel that an "overall drawdown" in percent would be much more helpful in gauging the risk associated with chasing the 1% profit. Does that make sense?

Also, now that Im down about 2%, I presume I leave the EA alone for the upcoming weekend and let it works its way through any gaps that happen come Sundays opening?

What is the highest overall drawdown youve seen?

Thanks again!
  • #178
  • Sep 9, 2010 5:27pm Sep 9, 2010 5:27pm
Gaps don't matter much with a basket like this. Highest overall drawdown, can't rightly say. Frazerd keeps much more data.
Open to new approaches.
  • #179
  • Sep 9, 2010 5:31pm Sep 9, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting juiceman
Meta: So far Confirm_14 is doing exactly what it is supposed to do and I am satisfied with my results 2% in two days is good enough for me - Thanks Juiceman
That is amazing. I ran Confirm14_02 for 2 weeks and it never trimmed and never came close to 1% profit, just hovered around break even, up a few $s then down a few. I gave up on it.
Frazer
  • #180
  • Sep 9, 2010 5:35pm Sep 9, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting MetaCoder
Gaps don't matter much with a basket like this. Highest overall drawdown, can't rightly say. Frazerd keeps much more data.
Sorry, I have not been tracking Max Draw Down. As long as my accounts don't come close to a margin call I'm a happy camper.
Frazer
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