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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #251,621
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:14am Sep 8, 2010 10:14am
Quoting Robot
here is my trade, first target 5596 second 5696 im going to wait and pray. :-D if it doesn't hit my target than i'll be pissed off. thats all.

Got in late for a long, waited for a retest of range to 1.5485, which did not happen, so jumped in at 1.5500. Stop at b/e, so free ride, hoping 1.5600/1.5604 area for tp.
  • #251,622
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:15am Sep 8, 2010 10:15am
I did short around 1.5500 because of the pair beeing overbought, and 1.55 a key number. Is that a dumb trade in your eyes?
  • #251,623
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:16am Sep 8, 2010 10:16am
Quoting Sunsi
I did short around 1.5500 because of the pair beeing overbought, and 1.55 a key number. Is that a dumb trade in your eyes?

It is your money and strategy, just keep in mind that Cable can stay overbought for a lot longer then your account balance can handle.
  • #251,624
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:17am Sep 8, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Sunsi
I did short around 1.5500 because of the pair beeing overbought, and 1.55 a key number. Is that a dumb trade in your eyes?
i did the same things, short too
  • #251,625
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:17am Sep 8, 2010 10:17am
Quoting mfoste1
major resistance, monthly pivot 5550-5560....I have a small short there with stop above 5600.
38.2% of the main 5997-5296 resides @ 5560 also.

G/L
ex member
  • #251,626
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:18am Sep 8, 2010 10:18am
Quoting cloggie
It is your money and strategy, just keep in mind that Cable can stay overbought for a lot longer then your account balance can handle.
Okey, thanks for info
  • #251,627
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:19am Sep 8, 2010 10:19am
Quoting cloggie
It is your money and strategy, just keep in mind that Cable can stay overbought for a lot longer then your account balance can handle.
She's certainly on something...keeps going and going and...definitely my kinda lady...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #251,628
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:21am Sep 8, 2010 10:21am
Quoting Sunsi
Okey, thanks for info

We are risk driven today, lots of appetite out there. All US equities indices up close to 1%, all EU indices up, uCAD not finding support, retrace on CHF pairs failing, aUSD not finding any resistance. Would I short this in anticipation without a confirmed top? Not really.

Beige book and Obamarama speaking later may give a bit of fluctuations, but the driver today is the equity market, keep an eye on that one.

Just to put a number on a possible top for me will be 5533, but I would want to see a confirmed reversal first before I will short this one today. If 5533 is not going to reverse it 5564 will be next. Just keep in mind that today the techies are not in charge, we are fundie and equity driven.

On days like this, I just rather give up 30-40 pips on reversals and get a confirmed one rather then trying to be clever and predicting the tops.
  • #251,629
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:22am Sep 8, 2010 10:22am
Quoting bimmerbob
Got in late for a long, waited for a retest of range to 1.5485, which did not happen, so jumped in at 1.5500. Stop at b/e, so free ride, hoping 1.5600/1.5604 area for tp.
...decided to jump ship for 20 pips.
  • #251,630
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:24am Sep 8, 2010 10:24am
Quoting GlobalMacro
She's certainly on something...keeps going and going and...definitely my kinda lady...

Yup, been a good day, volumes still low on the equity markets though in the US, may need another week to get back to normal.
  • #251,631
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:28am Sep 8, 2010 10:28am
well, I was sure caught by this up move... Shorted after the news and got stopped for 2.2% of account...

Looks like fibre is setting up for overnight short but will let PA show me... Normally would expect cable to also drop overnight but not sure with this PA. Any Ideas?
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #251,632
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:30am Sep 8, 2010 10:30am
Quoting cloggie
Been referring to it all day and so have plenty of other posters here, the moneyflows have been pretty clearcut today.
Yes I know cloggie, things just weren't so clear to my as to you, we saw up and down moves in USD, we saw positive and negative correlations compared to USDX, we saw lower lows yesterday and higher highs today.
My trades are mostly longer term oriented so I'm not worried enough by intraday movements were all discussions are about, yesterday's moves just didn't fit in my long term positive bias so I closed my longs and shorted (scalps) mainly based on yesterdays developments.
Have to fine tune collecting positions for longer moves, this was not good indeed......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #251,633
  • Edited 10:42am Sep 8, 2010 10:32am | Edited 10:42am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes I know cloggie, things just weren't so clear to my as to you, we saw up and down moves in USD, we saw positive and negative correlations compared to USDX, we saw lower lows yesterday and higher highs today.
My trades are mostly longer term oriented so I'm not worried enough by intraday movements were all discussions are about, yesterday's moves just didn't fit in my long term positive bias so I closed my longs and shorted (scalps) mainly based on yesterdays developments.
Have to fine tune collecting positions for longer moves, this was not good...

Longer term I totally agree with you, these rallies in fibre and cable will be good ones to short from, just not today. Tomorrow we could well see a good sell of on both. As it is September I have been ignoring the dixy all together and tend to focus on equity correlations instead. Europe is closed now and the only 3 markets in negative territory are, you guessed it Portugal, Ireland and Greece, that shows you how close the correlation has been this week between bonds, equities and risk appetite in currencies.

The equity rally is fragile with the huge redemptions of retail investors out of MF's (google ICI report), the pension funds and MF's need a DOW of 15,000+ but a distinct lack of retail investors will never see that happen, DOW is flat for the year and the buy-and-hold approach of the big funds is just not working anymore. The EU market is driven now by yields and spreads with both bunds and Gilts dropping nicely, widening the spreads with the peripheral member states.

Trading currencies in September has historically been risk driven and this week has been just about text book.

Any shorts are just scalping retraces and should not be seen as longer holds until uCAD finds support and the equities flatten out.
  • #251,634
  • Edited Sep 9, 2010 2:02am Sep 8, 2010 10:38am | Edited Sep 9, 2010 2:02am
"Went for an EARLY SHORT at 5525; expecting DIX strength as it found support"


turned out exactly like i predicted yesterday :nerd:

all that little spike through 5485-5530 was to activate long orders in that region and also take out stop losses of people who went short in the middle of the road... thats fx psychology better poker

PS vouch for me as i need to start a proper thread
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  • #251,635
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:45am Sep 8, 2010 10:45am
Quoting wormboy
269 mentioned is just another small support, you need not worry about that if you're trading from the htf, just pick the round number closest to it. Right now 5300 is the big one. Had always been
and 5300 did it again. The big one just got bigger lol.

5545 is the monthly pvp. Looks like a retest to me. I read so many sold earlier, too bad. Around the current price offers better risk reward to sell imo. Just a heads up. Good luck everyone
Thank You
  • #251,636
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:49am Sep 8, 2010 10:49am
Quoting wormboy
and 5300 did it again. The big one just got bigger lol.

5545 is the monthly pvp. Looks like a retest to me. I read so many sold earlier, too bad. Around the current price offers better risk reward to sell imo. Just a heads up. Good luck everyone
Thanks wormy,

Already short on fibre, waiting for the elegant lady to show me when I can short her
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #251,637
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:51am Sep 8, 2010 10:51am
The channel everyone is waiting for. 5540 area has been discussed by many before. Took me by surprise as well, only managed 5 pips from the last 5min leg.

Its a bit late in the day to short though. Going to regret it.
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  • #251,638
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:59am Sep 8, 2010 10:59am
Quoting cloggie
Any shorts are just scalping retraces and should not be seen as longer holds until uCAD finds support and the equities flatten out.
Could you elaborate a little about uCAD relevance in this case?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #251,639
  • Sep 8, 2010 11:00am Sep 8, 2010 11:00am
Quoting pawpaw1000
Thanks wormy,

Already short on fibre, waiting for the elegant lady to show me when I can short her
Cable short at 5511...

up 10 on fibre... lets get s/l to b/e and then let her run!

Hoping the news about the bank being restructured is TERRIBLE!
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #251,640
  • Sep 8, 2010 11:03am Sep 8, 2010 11:03am
Quoting USD-Bear
Could you elaborate a little about uCAD relevance in this case?

On equity driven days, uCAD is always a good indicator of risk appetite, equities up while uCAD is dropping means don't go shorting Cable just yet, couple that with a bit of good news this morning from the UK and you have a simple correlated trade that should keep you on the right side of the intraday trend.

The next big risk trading setup when it comes to equities will be oil dropping below 72, oil is always a good leader for equities and the resultant moves in currencies.
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