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  • #2,101
  • Sep 7, 2010 1:18pm Sep 7, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting paul1
But he did say while we were doing the exercise this 2 weeks if we weren't confident to demo till were used to the method but not to demo for too long .
A couple weeks is fine but not months. Again, just my opinion.
  • #2,102
  • Sep 7, 2010 1:23pm Sep 7, 2010 1:23pm
Hi pip_daddy,

Yea i do most of my testing on live as like you i think a lot of the testing involves how I interact with the trades or preferably don't as I have tendency to interfere that's why this method of trading seems better suited to me. That said i do also have a demo account as I'm just opening another account with Dukascopy so need to get to grips with their platform.
  • #2,103
  • Sep 7, 2010 1:39pm Sep 7, 2010 1:39pm
eurjpy longs stopped out today, both. If at first you don't succeed...

good luck
  • #2,104
  • Sep 7, 2010 1:41pm Sep 7, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting pip_daddy
A couple weeks is fine but not months. Again, just my opinion.
I understand but i told myself first at least prove i can be profitable in demo before moving to live.
I spent a lot of time with indicators and differents methods but couldn't get consistent results.
Everyone will take different amounts of time i suppose but i beleive if you cant be profitable in demo you probable have no chance in live.
As you say just my opinion.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #2,105
  • Sep 7, 2010 1:44pm Sep 7, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting abailey
eurjpy longs stopped out today, both. If at first you don't succeed...

good luck
how long have they been on?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #2,106
  • Sep 7, 2010 1:56pm Sep 7, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting cumquat
Hi ya,

Well i have a question, i have started following Graham's and your advice and so far i seem to be doing really good, how do you stop yourself from cashing in, i'm looking at it thinking my profit is double my account balance should i just take it to get me on a decent starting pot or continue to run with it. I think lack the confidence in my own ability and i keep thinking i will kick myself if i let this profit disappear.

Hey cumquat,
if you dont mind me saying so, you seem to be risking quite a bit on that small account, to have doubled it with only 4 positive trades, all of which are under 200 pips, seems like to me you might be a little over exposed in the market.
sorry but i wouldn't dream of trading $3/pips on a $500 account, but each to our own.

cheers
geoff
  • #2,107
  • Sep 7, 2010 2:01pm Sep 7, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting paul1
Thankyou all very much to my stop loss problems .
I've since not been stopped out and have 10 live positions using break of low entry. And I'am now placing the stop over the last obvious high.
My stop would be ok if i could pick highs on a short trade but i can't so i just enter on break of bottom so price has usually moved a fair bit before it gets to my entry so putting the stop above a previous high seems to be much better.
10 pip stops are no use on volatile pairs like these so am just going to keep an eye on the highs and lows on 5 minute and...
Hey paul,
great to hear you are doing good,
when you feel you can handle looking at another type of entry, check out 50% retrace entry, it cost you less than the breakout of a low, it does feel slightly wierd when you are basically selling for short against the run of play if you like, or buying for long against the run, but they work well, ceretainly not all of them, and you need to be able to cut and run,(my own personal thorn in my side), and wait for the next opportunity.
cheers
geoff
  • #2,108
  • Sep 7, 2010 2:02pm Sep 7, 2010 2:02pm
I came across this quote from Nassim Taleb and it reminded me of pipeasy:

Nassim Taleb puts it this way: “In some strategies and life situations, it is said, one gambles dollars to win a succession of pennies. In others one risks a succession of pennies to win dollars. While one would think that the second category would be more appealing to investors and economic agents, we have an overwhelming evidence of the popularity of the first.”
  • #2,109
  • Sep 7, 2010 2:06pm Sep 7, 2010 2:06pm
Hi Geoff,

All constructive comments greatly received, i think your probably right as when i get it wrong it is costing me a bit. I think i will knock it back down a bit.



Cheers.
  • #2,110
  • Edited 2:45pm Sep 7, 2010 2:35pm | Edited 2:45pm
Quoting paul1
I understand but i told myself first at least prove i can be profitable in demo before moving to live.
I spent a lot of time with indicators and differents methods but couldn't get consistent results.
Everyone will take different amounts of time i suppose but i beleive if you cant be profitable in demo you probable have no chance in live.
As you say just my opinion.
The classic progression goes something like this. Novice trades demo and becomes a zillionaire or whatever. They figure they are all set. Maybe they even quit their job (yikes!). They start trading live just like demo except undercapitalized and blow up account after account. They end up going back to demo licking their wounds and start making money again. Ok, they got it figured out this time. They go live with better money management an BAM, POW.....the money just disappears!

If they manage to survive that and still persevere, they eventually start out much smaller on live account and gradually build up. Then and only then they start to make money although much less than on demo. They miss the adrenaline rush so they up their bets or take bigger SL or whatever and now instead of a big explosion their accounts just kind of wither away. Rinse repeat with a few variations here and there.

Then there are the ones who trade demo for months or even years. Some may have a deep seated fear to even lose one penny of real money. Everyone has their reasons. Problem is the longer they stay on demo the worse they are making it on themselves. They are basically un-training themselves IMHO.

That seems to be a couple of the classic things new traders do. Just something everyone needs to work out on their own I guess.
  • #2,111
  • Sep 7, 2010 2:52pm Sep 7, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting flyer415
I came across this quote from Nassim Taleb and it reminded me of pipeasy:

Nassim Taleb puts it this way: “In some strategies and life situations, it is said, one gambles dollars to win a succession of pennies. In others one risks a succession of pennies to win dollars. While one would think that the second category would be more appealing to investors and economic agents, we have an overwhelming evidence of the popularity of the first.”
Hi Flyer,

Hope your trading is going well.

Have you by any chance continued to compile Graeme's posts since the last time? I think from memory you had captured them up to page 102??

I ask as I was going to go through them to capture the last lesson of his which was "anticipation" but if you have already done it, I would really appreciate if you could upload it again, assuming you don't mind.

Kind Regards,

Chorlton
  • #2,112
  • Edited 3:22pm Sep 7, 2010 2:54pm | Edited 3:22pm
Good morning, all

Thank you all for the private messages/compliments.

I have been away for few days as I had few medical examination to be done. It is nothing new as it has been ongoing for awhile.

I will try my best to answer all the emails/private messages in the next 2 days unless Im unavailable again.

During the weekend, I spent most of the time in my bed with a laptop. I read this thread which was started 2 months ago.

It is great looking at past history to see how far you have come and also see that many of the readers have taken positive insight from the information I passed on into their trading.

Although the current project started just over a week ago, I know it will be the start to profitable trading to the traders that I have been able to touch or a new trading perspective to many of the traders.

There are 100+ pages in this thread and even though I was mainly responsible for the lengthy posts, a smart reader can notice that all the information can be condensed to a single post. However, whether the single post of information can be successfully interpreted by others is the concern.

There are only few things of importance in trading to make you profitable. And then time, positive expectation, exposure will inevitably create your profits.

It is now time to apply your understanding into your trading with respects to law of nature/probability/expectancy

If I try to summarise everything I do in one sentence:

I will risk/pay $10 for the chance of minimum $100 reward anytime, anywhere as long as I know by statistically that the given 'risk-taking opportunity' has a higher probability in 'potential profit vs time' compared to most given occurences.

And this perspective can be applied universally to any business/life/problematic models.

Please do not forget.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Edit: Stay away from forums.
  • #2,113
  • Sep 7, 2010 3:09pm Sep 7, 2010 3:09pm
I will do so this week.



Quoting Chorlton
Hi Flyer,

Hope your trading is going well.

Have you by any chance continued to compile Graeme's posts since the last time? I think from memory you had captured them up to page 102??

I ask as I was going to go through them to capture the last lesson of his which was "anticipation" but if you have already done it, I would really appreciate if you could upload it again, assuming you don't mind.

Kind Regards,

Chorlton
  • #2,114
  • Sep 7, 2010 3:12pm Sep 7, 2010 3:12pm
want to try this in live but am concerned about leaving open positions while I'am in bed.

From what i have been told the computer has to be running to execute my stops.

But when i leave my computer overnight, in the morning its stopped running.
How would i make sure my s.l. would get activated should price move against my position.

up to now since this exercise in demo price hasn't got to my stop overnight.

Any advice from people used to keeping long term positions greatly appreciated.

just placed first live trade an up 20 pips on e/j

just funded account today.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #2,115
  • Sep 7, 2010 3:14pm Sep 7, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting flyer415
I will do so this week.
Thanks Flyer.... Appreciate your ongoing effort .......

All the best......
  • #2,116
  • Sep 7, 2010 3:37pm Sep 7, 2010 3:37pm
I have found that my edge for entries is knowing the currency, its patterns, its trendlines, etc. Getting into it's rhythm. Its kind of like the ocean, it ebbs and flows, the tide comes in and goes out.

I trade only G/U and have 20 charts and every time frame opened to see it from every possible angle. I have my charts labeled with BUY ZONE for the bottom half of the trend and SELL ZONE on the top half of the trend. Like swing trading - when you reach the high, you sell and when you reach the bottom, you buy on the retracement.

So, on the 4 hour charts, I mark the trendlines - the top and the bottom. GU is pretty predictable if you watch it on the 4h chart. It goes to the top trendline, then retraces to the bottom trendline, day in and day out. Up to top of trend line, down to bottom of trendline. Making lower highs and lower lows.

I have BUY ZONE on the bottom of the trendline and SELL ZONE at the top trend line. Its highlighted in blue, so when I get there I remember to not buy at the top and not to sell at the bottom - no matter how tempting it looks. I will hold my positions there to see if it will break out - but I wont enter any new ones in this zone because the price always retraces. I will only reenter after the retracement.

I use moving averages to confirm my entries. When the lines cross, I reverse my direction. I'm always in the market that way. I have been trading this way for years and rarely lose a trade this way. I used to trade GBP/JPN this way before the 08 crash. Now, Im liking GBP/USD - it seems to like to stick to trends longer.

When the trend changes (may 2010, August 2010) - it happens either at the top of the trendline or at the bottom of the trendline. The areas where I hold until I get confirmation from the moving averages.

So when it reaches the top, I wait for the retracement, the MA's cross and I sell. When it gets to the lowest low and retraces, the MA's cross and I buy. No losers.... I've also noticed the highest highs/lowest lows usually happen during the London/NY session. When London closes, is usually when the retracement begans.

my biggest hurdle is not cashing out at the bottom like Graeme, and holding it. I've managed several times to do it, but the temptation is so overwhelming. I have to keep coming back here to "retrain" my mind everyday.

And again Graeme, thanks so much for your daily input. It has really helped me to hang in longer.
  • #2,117
  • Sep 7, 2010 3:41pm Sep 7, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting paul1
want to try this in live but am concerned about leaving open positions while I'am in bed.

From what i have been told the computer has to be running to execute my stops.

But when i leave my computer overnight, in the morning its stopped running.
How would i make sure my s.l. would get activated should price move against my position.

up to now since this exercise in demo price hasn't got to my stop overnight.

Any advice from people used to keeping long term positions greatly appreciated.

just placed first live trade an up 20 pips on e/j...
hI paul,
Im not sure who you are with, but im with Oanda and dont have any trouble with my stops, once they are set they are set, i can turn my platform off and my computer and it has no effect.
i do leave pmy computer on over night but purely so i dont have to restart when i get up to check my positions before leaving for work.

i have a couple of positions running since june on usd/jpy, no problems with them.

if the platform you are using doesn't allow you to close it and it still honor your stop levels you have set, then i would be looking for a new platform.

cheers
geoff
  • #2,118
  • Sep 7, 2010 4:01pm Sep 7, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting VEEFX
I found out how to delete posts.... it's via the EDIT button. For some reason, it only allowed me to delete 10 or so posts and now it is not allowing me to edit my own posts. strange! I will come back later to try again and delete all the ones that don't add much value to this thread.

Best Regards,

- Vee

hey Vee, i think you have contributed to this thread greatly as i am sure Graeme and others would agree, i wouldn't be too hasty to delete too much, other might get more out of your post than you think.

cheers
Geoff
  • #2,119
  • Sep 7, 2010 4:09pm Sep 7, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting geoffrod
hI paul,
Im not sure who you are with, but im with Oanda and dont have any trouble with my stops, once they are set they are set, i can turn my platform off and my computer and it has no effect.
i do leave pmy computer on over night but purely so i dont have to restart when i get up to check my positions before leaving for work.

i have a couple of positions running since june on usd/jpy, no problems with them.

if the platform you are using doesn't allow you to close it and it still honor your stop levels you have set, then i would be looking...
Cheers geoff.
I'll have to speak to them again . I needed to know if this was the same for others.
As it seemed a bit unusual.
I know people have positions for months.
Was sure they didn't leave there platform on all time.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #2,120
  • Sep 7, 2010 4:29pm Sep 7, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting paul1
want to try this in live but am concerned about leaving open positions while I'am in bed.

From what i have been told the computer has to be running to execute my stops.

But when i leave my computer overnight, in the morning its stopped running.
.

I had to change the power/back up settings on mine to never sleep and never update without me doing it manually.
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