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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #251,421
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:34am Sep 7, 2010 8:34am
Quoting AdrianHNV
Thanks for the post and advice cloggie, I will of course as always look into this, but as I am already successful in the way I was taught I will probably stick with what I have thus far learnt. (Although I'm sure I will learn from your information too, as I can never learn enough) Apparently

Just look at a monthly on swissy and a monthly on cable, half the time they are correlated, half the time they are inversely correlated, how can you trade that if you don't know what phase of correlation we are in, so in effect you are right 6 months of the year and wrong 6 months of the year, I just hope for your bankbalance that the first 6 months you are wrong and the second 6 you are right or else your DD will be greater once the balance increases and the correlation reverses.

Trading purely on correlation to swissy and euro is not a profitable strategy over time, just have a look at all 3 charts. Lots of times trading fibre as correlation to cable will just assure you miss the majority of the move on Cable as the volume is less and volatitily is higher the move in cable will happen before the move in fibre.

But then again, it is your money.
  • #251,422
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:39am Sep 7, 2010 8:39am
Hi Cloggie,sorry to be a pain but could you tell me how you knew 15312 was such strong support? All i can find is the S/R on the head and shoulders back in May.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #251,423
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:46am Sep 7, 2010 8:46am
Quoting 4xStar
'
What correlation are you looking for? Euro & Swissy usually move opposite to each other so they correlate between themselves .. but what correlation to you see with GU? Often GU and UCad are mirror images, so I watch the Cad for some correlation. When I am taking the yen crosses, I like to see all 3, GY, EJ and AJ moving in sync and UJ in agreement .. learned that last year, greatly increases probability on yen trades ... so yes, I agree with correltion but would like to know how you see it in more detail... thanks.
Correlation with CHF this time is real huge elephant sh!t. CHF just acquired a new status and need to be studied. I'll welcome any help from anyone.
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #251,424
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:50am Sep 7, 2010 8:50am
Bullish divergence on the h1 chart. Price may very well test the neck line or even spike to test the FE 50 before further down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #251,425
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:53am Sep 7, 2010 8:53am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Hi Cloggie,sorry to be a pain but could you tell me how you knew 15312 was such strong support? All i can find is the S/R on the head and shoulders back in May.
Cloggie has very kindly helped me a lot with this and this is how I do it:

a) Get a 4 hour chart and zoom out to the furthest you can get it

b) If you take a horizontal line and see where it has acted as support or resistance in the past. It is impossible to make it too exact so you need to look for a fair number of reversal points that are in the same approximate price area. I have 26 Feb, 5 April, 23 April, 21 July and today

I must admit that I have 5307 but what is 5 pips between friends !!
  • #251,426
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:55am Sep 7, 2010 8:55am
Quoting Indyfx
Cloggie has very kindly helped me a lot with this and this is how I do it:

a) Get a 4 hour chart and zoom out to the furthest you can get it

b) If you take a horizontal line and see where it has acted as support or resistance in the past. It is impossible to make it too exact so you need to look for a fair number of reversal points that are in the same approximate price area. I have 26 Feb, 5 April, 23 April, 21 July and today

I must admit that I have 5307 but what is 5 pips between friends !!

You got it, combine that with the pivot play for today, the fib extension of today's move and the reversal in EG, the support on es and DOW and you have a general area of where the next support is going to be formed, good for targets and it keeps you out of shorting an area that will see some demand first.

I just averaged them all out, put more weight on the pivot play and fib and calculated 5312 as an area to watch.
  • #251,427
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:58am Sep 7, 2010 8:58am
Quoting Indyfx
Cloggie has very kindly helped me a lot with this and this is how I do it:

a) Get a 4 hour chart and zoom out to the furthest you can get it

b) If you take a horizontal line and see where it has acted as support or resistance in the past. It is impossible to make it too exact so you need to look for a fair number of reversal points that are in the same approximate price area. I have 26 Feb, 5 April, 23 April, 21 July and today

I must admit that I have 5307 but what is 5 pips between friends !!
Yeah, I was wondering for a while. Here is a chart. I hope it is correct.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #251,428
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:00am Sep 7, 2010 9:00am
does a mild retracement of todays fall seem likely? if it does retrace, i will go short btwn 1.5350-65...
  • #251,429
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:01am Sep 7, 2010 9:01am
Quoting cloggie
You got it, combine that with the pivot play for today, the fib extension of today's move and the reversal in EG, the support on es and DOW and you have a general area of where the next support is going to be formed, good for targets and it keeps you out of shorting an area that will see some demand first.

I just averaged them all out, put more weight on the pivot play and fib and calculated 5312 as an area to watch.
Thats why I did not take the break of the small 8 bar range on the 5min chart at 13.20. With support at 5307 it was too risky and low and behold it moved strongly down to 5304 and then reversed
  • #251,430
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:02am Sep 7, 2010 9:02am
Quoting Indyfx
Thats why I did not take the break of the small 8 bar range on the 5min chart at 13.20. With support at 5307 it was too risky and low and behold it moved strongly down to 5304 and then reversed

That's it, calculating possible areas where support can form keeps you out of selling the bottom. Not rocket science really.
  • #251,431
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:04am Sep 7, 2010 9:04am
Quoting trending
Yeah, I was wondering for a while. Here is a chart. I hope it is correct.
This is a horizontal resistance / support line (not a diagonal line). If you zoom out as far as you can on your 4hr chart and add on 5307 or Cloggie's 5312 and look at the touches that I mentioned in my earlier post
  • #251,432
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:04am Sep 7, 2010 9:04am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Hi Cloggie,sorry to be a pain but could you tell me how you knew 15312 was such strong support? All i can find is the S/R on the head and shoulders back in May.
Once we broke under the Daily TL 15350, 15306 was the next logical place for a bounce.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #251,433
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:04am Sep 7, 2010 9:04am
Quoting Indyfx
Cloggie has very kindly helped me a lot with this and this is how I do it:

a) Get a 4 hour chart and zoom out to the furthest you can get it

b) If you take a horizontal line and see where it has acted as support or resistance in the past. It is impossible to make it too exact so you need to look for a fair number of reversal points that are in the same approximate price area. I have 26 Feb, 5 April, 23 April, 21 July and today

I must admit that I have 5307 but what is 5 pips between friends !!
Thankyou Indyfx,i've been playing with this strategy for a while but definately not enough. Will feel more confident in the future.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #251,434
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:06am Sep 7, 2010 9:06am
Quoting Fudomyo
Once we broke under the Daily TL, 15306 was the next logical place for a bounce.
Thankyou, must do more work on my trend lines.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #251,435
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:09am Sep 7, 2010 9:09am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Thankyou Indyfx,i've been playing with this strategy for a while but definately not enough. Will feel more confident in the future.

There are dozens of ways to come up with an area that could possibly form a support, once you have identified an area to watch you just look at the PA and the patterns it forms for a confirmation of your thinking. You then look at the risk appetite, or lack thereof and judge your further entries once your confirmed support level goes. Always keep in mind that it is a lot easier for a currency to continue then it is to stop, consolidate and reverse. Today the equities continue to drop so there is not a lot of appetite for risk out there.

Another little hint is to draw your TL's with a crayon and not a pencil, they are areas of support.
  • #251,436
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:16am Sep 7, 2010 9:16am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Thankyou, must do more work on my trend lines.
It's actually a minor level. Monthly S2 is sitting at 152972 (on the same TL) which is more significant support on the Monthly & Weekly charts. If this doesn't hold, we have more room to drop.
  • #251,437
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:23am Sep 7, 2010 9:23am
Quoting cloggie
There are dozens of ways to come up with an area that could possibly form a support, once you have identified an area to watch you just look at the PA and the patterns it forms for a confirmation of your thinking. You then look at the risk appetite, or lack thereof and judge your further entries once your confirmed support level goes. Always keep in mind that it is a lot easier for a currency to continue then it is to stop, consolidate and reverse. Today the equities continue to drop so there is not a lot of appetite for risk out there.

Another...
Thanks Cloggie and all yet again i''l get there slowly.Crayon presumably because it cant be erased?I remember you all saying that the older the TL the stronger the indication. My drawings are still very messy so i erase them regularly and before i have a chance to re draw something happens with the PA. Will try harder next time.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #251,438
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:23am Sep 7, 2010 9:23am
For those who like their history, have a look at UJ, 15-year low. No bounce in 10 yr yields, this one is not going to last.
  • #251,439
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:24am Sep 7, 2010 9:24am
Completion of daily range should come at about 1.5275, will be watching for target there to exit on shorts and try a couple for the reversal.

Have pending orders set, good luck on the day guys.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #251,440
  • Sep 7, 2010 9:24am Sep 7, 2010 9:24am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Thanks Cloggie and all yet again i''l get there slowly.Crayon presumably because it cant be erased?I remember you all saying that the older the TL the stronger the indication. My drawings are still very messy so i erase them regularly and before i have a chance to re draw something happens with the PA. Will try harder next time.

With Crayon, I mean draw big fat ones, they are areas of support not just a thin line, especially on the higher TF's, it keeps you from jumping on the first sucker bar that is just a test. Drawing areas also forces you to look at the PA a bit closer to see if they are going to hold or not and it will keep you from picking a bottom that does not exist.
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