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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #251,401
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:37am Sep 7, 2010 7:37am
Quoting cloggie
For what it is worth, all about 2 pennies, I am flat awaiting the open to see if any meaningful range gets formed and how the PA interacts accordingly. All equity futures in the US are down right now and oil remains well below the pivot since start of the day.

Any range to form on the open, would suit me fine, but I am still eyeballing 5312 for a further move down. 5312 giving up opens the way to 5264. A good close below 5312 would see last week's low giving way too, which also takes care of last month's low and would set a new intermediate trend...
Cheers, very helpful
  • #251,402
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:40am Sep 7, 2010 7:40am
Quoting GlobalMacro
tbh...I like the smell of both...the latter one real real cold tho...
Both we shall have mate, after we are don with this trade.

Gotta run

Later cus
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #251,403
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:41am Sep 7, 2010 7:41am
Quoting PoundTrader
i prefer the smell of money, i tried the smell of beer while trading and the results wasn't good
You shouldn't trade and drink...

opps better peactice what I preach.
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #251,404
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:42am Sep 7, 2010 7:42am
Quoting Sutts
Cheers

It is only my view, but if you want to short this make sure 5312 goes first, no point shorting support until the break is confirmed, if 5312 does not go pretty quickly here, you may as well sit out the open to make sure the drop in futures carries through. If 5312 holds, I will be looking at a better price for my short.

But it is your money.
  • #251,405
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:43am Sep 7, 2010 7:43am
Quoting Precap2
Maybe you need a good insurance cover for your a$$
Just think about it. I hate to trade an apparent good price
haha, just getting itchy not to have anyposition all day,don't worry,we got brake named SL
yesterday was good, today is the best, tomorrow is amazing.....
  • #251,406
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:43am Sep 7, 2010 7:43am
Quoting GlobalMacro
if it doesn't make any difference to you which way she goes then it means you're not trading at all...sitting on the sidelines...
I've been trading since 5.45am this morning, just more cautious now having had the benefit of this thread and many others here at 'FF' I'm finding that the more I learn the easier it is to combine what I have been taught with what I have learnt thus far.......

The reason I don't care in which direction she goes is that unless I get the 'correlation from Euro and Swissy' I don't trade, like I used too when I first started. Thought that every move I missed was lost opportunity but in fact it's not, it now means that when I do trade their is a higher probability of getting it right and making money instead of loosing it. Which I have done, like many others I suspect when in their infancy (Which I still am).
  • #251,407
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:48am Sep 7, 2010 7:48am
Quoting cloggie
It is only my view, but if you want to short this make sure 5312 goes first, no point shorting support until the break is confirmed, if 5312 does not go pretty quickly here, you may as well sit out the open to make sure the drop in futures carries through. If 5312 holds, I will be looking at a better price for my short.

But it is your money.

Thanks for the help Cloggie. I'm trying to take trades based on the flows in the bigger picture like you've described recently. Long way to go though. I'll keep watching and learning.....
  • #251,408
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:50am Sep 7, 2010 7:50am
Quoting Bull_Bear
Both we shall have mate, after we are don with this trade.

Gotta run

Later cus
that's right bro...In Dough We Trust...LOL...
Have fun playa!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #251,409
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:57am Sep 7, 2010 7:57am
Quoting AdrianHNV
The reason I don't care in which direction she goes is that unless I get the 'correlation from Euro and Swissy' I don't trade,
'
What correlation are you looking for? Euro & Swissy usually move opposite to each other so they correlate between themselves .. but what correlation to you see with GU? Often GU and UCad are mirror images, so I watch the Cad for some correlation. When I am taking the yen crosses, I like to see all 3, GY, EJ and AJ moving in sync and UJ in agreement .. learned that last year, greatly increases probability on yen trades ... so yes, I agree with correltion but would like to know how you see it in more detail... thanks.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #251,410
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:08am Sep 7, 2010 8:08am
Quoting 4xStar
'
What correlation are you looking for? Euro & Swissy usually move opposite to each other so they correlate between themselves .. but what correlation to you see with GU? Often GU and UCad are mirror images, so I watch the Cad for some correlation. When I am taking the yen crosses, I like to see all 3, GY, EJ and AJ moving in sync and UJ in agreement .. learned that last year, greatly increases probability on yen trades ... so yes, I agree with correlation but would like to know how you see it in more detail... thanks.
Sending you a pm....................
  • #251,411
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:10am Sep 7, 2010 8:10am
Quoting Sutts
Thanks for the help Cloggie. I'm trying to take trades based on the flows in the bigger picture like you've described recently. Long way to go though. I'll keep watching and learning.....

Cable is very risk driven as the majority of the move is driven by the dollar and therefor cable moves in larger batches then fibre does as the euro half can have a calming effect on the moves. This week with no significant economic news coming out of the EU and only production figures from the UK, we are driven by the dollar and the appetite, or lack thereof for risk. Last week we saw a decent "rally" on equities, even though we are flat for the year, and we had the corresponding move in the dollar.

Today on the first day of trading the normal season, you need to keep an eye on the equities to see if the rally has any chance of continuing, futures were down in the last 2 hours or so and as I stated in my earlier post are finding some support there right before the open, that led to 5312 becoming important in choosing your entry for a short.

It is fair to say that most here agree we are in a ranging/bearish day on cable, so it is up to you to find the right entry for a short and not just jump on the first bear candle you see on the M5. Patience is key here, and we are going to see some fluctuations here before the open with a range forming that will have a bottom of 5312, now it is up to you to find the break in the range to find yourself a trade, if it breaks to the North trading it would be counter to the day's trend and stops need to be kept tight, a break to the south will open the way to 5264.

I keep hammering on about that 5312, but plenty here still shorted it without any confirmation of it actually breaking.
  • #251,412
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:12am Sep 7, 2010 8:12am
Quoting AdrianHNV
Sending you a pm....................
Would be interested to hear your views on correlation too if possible please?

Thanks
  • #251,413
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:15am Sep 7, 2010 8:15am
Quoting pawpaw1000
I am in agreement that this support won't hold for too much longer but not taking a trade until I see some direction...

So for now I'm taking Flat as my position and will see what happens in US...

Off to lunch, enjoy
Just got back and see we have finally broken 5350 but still got 5325 which will also be a biatch to break!

Maybe go back up from here but Actually have no Idea, let's let PA show us...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #251,414
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:18am Sep 7, 2010 8:18am
Quoting AdrianHNV
I've been trading since 5.45am this morning, just more cautious now having had the benefit of this thread and many others here at 'FF' I'm finding that the more I learn the easier it is to combine what I have been taught with what I have learnt thus far.......

The reason I don't care in which direction she goes is that unless I get the 'correlation from Euro and Swissy' I don't trade, like I used too when I first started. Thought that every move I missed was lost opportunity but in fact it's not, it now means that when I do trade their is a higher...

There are plenty of days that euro and swissy have zero correlation to cable and taking trades on this correlation only over a longer time period will not be a very profitable strategy.

If you want to correlate the cable to anything you need to look at the dollar half of the pair and therefore keeping any eye on equities, uCAD and yields is alot better form of correlation to trade cable of. Cable is an opportunity pair and is very risk driven, that is what catches most "newer" traders out as the direction is not always easily explained unless you dig deep into the underlying risk. Fibre is a lot simpler to trade, but does not offer the same swings and volatitily that cable gives, it is a tradeof. Cable is also a very technical pair and often the technical moves overshadow the correlation to swissy and euro easily so sticking to your correlation setups will give you headaches and a large DD.

But it is your money.
  • #251,415
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:25am Sep 7, 2010 8:25am
Quoting cloggie
Cable is very risk driven as the majority of the move is driven by the dollar and therefor cable moves in larger batches then fibre does as the euro half can have a calming effect on the moves. This week with no significant economic news coming out of the EU and only production figures from the UK, we are driven by the dollar and the appetite, or lack thereof for risk. Last week we saw a decent "rally" on equities, even though we are flat for the year, and we had the corresponding move in the dollar.

Today on the first day of trading the normal...

Appreciate the pointers Cloggie. The equity indexes I watch have put in higher lows and are breaking higher. I guess the dollar might start weakening from here.
  • #251,416
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:26am Sep 7, 2010 8:26am
Quoting cloggie
There are plenty of days that euro and swissy have zero correlation to cable and taking trades on this correlation only over a longer time period will not be a very profitable strategy.

If you want to correlate the cable to anything you need to look at the dollar half of the pair and therefore keeping any eye on equities, uCAD and yields is alot better form of correlation to trade cable of. Cable is an opportunity pair and is very risk driven, that is what catches most "newer" traders out as the direction is not always easily explained unless...
Hey cloggs...

Dollar dropping and S&P wanting to go back above 1100... might point to cable long but will see where we go from this consolodation on both equities and cable.

Caught a bit of the short after frankie fake (45) and am watching carefully to maybe trade the range if that's what she is offering

Fibre also looking like she has finally found some support but time will tell!

EDIT: maybe a good place for a possible short would be a retest of the low of previous range? 15350 or round about there...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #251,417
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:26am Sep 7, 2010 8:26am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
was this a stop hunt, dodgy move in cable?


seems like it, if it was, it was bad though... I expect a lot of them now





Quoting ams
yup matey!!!! got filled and I am done with my 50 pipees for the day :-)

Looking to buy dips until thursday

We've been ranging from 5 days now so expect dodgy moves / breakouts!


ta
ams
  • #251,418
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:28am Sep 7, 2010 8:28am
Quoting Sutts
Appreciate the pointers Cloggie. The equity indexes I watch have put in higher lows and are breaking higher. I guess the dollar might start weakening from here.

All US equity futures are flat right now, just before the open. I keep going on about them finding support and referencing cable to 5312, but that is still the key for a further move South. Just find the range on the open here and play the break accordingly.

The NY open will drive cable based on the dollar half, have a look at uCAD and you can see why we are where we are. Cable does not live in a vacuum and on lack of any news from the UK she is driven by the dollar, the dollar itself is most likely driven by the appetite of risk today, again due to lack of news there, so keeping an eye on risk appetite and therefore equities, oil, gold and uCAD should give you a pretty good picture.
  • #251,419
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:31am Sep 7, 2010 8:31am
Quoting cloggie
There are plenty of days that euro and swissy have zero correlation to cable and taking trades on this correlation only over a longer time period will not be a very profitable strategy.

If you want to correlate the cable to anything you need to look at the dollar half of the pair and therefore keeping any eye on equities, uCAD and yields is alot better form of correlation to trade cable of. Cable is an opportunity pair and is very risk driven, that is what catches most "newer" traders out as the direction is not always easily explained unless...
Thanks for the post and advice cloggie, I will of course as always look into this, but as I am already successful in the way I was taught I will probably stick with what I have thus far learnt. (Although I'm sure I will learn from your information too, as I can never learn enough) Apparently
  • #251,420
  • Sep 7, 2010 8:31am Sep 7, 2010 8:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 102 KB




might just be a scalp to nearest resistance - will see if we get strong momentum north


Red
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